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After ‘Brexit’ and Trump, Trust Is an Issue With French Polls After ‘Brexit’ and Trump, Trust Is an Issue With French Polls
(about 2 hours later)
The mood in France is “tense.” Europe is on “tenterhooks.” The world is “on edge.”The mood in France is “tense.” Europe is on “tenterhooks.” The world is “on edge.”
The election in France on Sunday, pitting an independent centrist against a far-right nationalist, could signal the end of the “European experiment,” lead to a “Frexit” and decidedly ring in a new era of reactionary populism and isolationism around the world.The election in France on Sunday, pitting an independent centrist against a far-right nationalist, could signal the end of the “European experiment,” lead to a “Frexit” and decidedly ring in a new era of reactionary populism and isolationism around the world.
All that stands between the devil we know and the devil we don’t, the British and American news media have said frequently in recent days, are the polls predicting the outcome of the French election. All that stands between the world and the unknown, the British and American news media have said frequently in recent days, are the polls predicting the outcome of the French election.
And so, again, we find ourselves awaiting an important election and poring over the numerical tea leaves.And so, again, we find ourselves awaiting an important election and poring over the numerical tea leaves.
But can we really trust polls? Remember what they said about the likelihood of a President Trump? Remember “Brexit?” Remember arguing about pollsters who relied too much on calls to voters with landlines? Remember screaming into the void: “Who still has a landline?” But can we really trust polls? Remember what they said about the likelihood of a President Trump? Remember “Brexit”? Remember arguing about pollsters who relied too much on calls to voters with landlines? Remember screaming into the void: “Who still has a landline?”
There is, however, a big difference between the poll results in France now and those before the American presidential election or the British referendum on whether to leave the European Union: the size of the lead.There is, however, a big difference between the poll results in France now and those before the American presidential election or the British referendum on whether to leave the European Union: the size of the lead.
Emmanuel Macron, the pro-Europe centrist, is ahead of Marine Le Pen, the nationalist who has vowed to engineer France’s exit from the European Union, by more than 20 points in the latest French surveys.Emmanuel Macron, the pro-Europe centrist, is ahead of Marine Le Pen, the nationalist who has vowed to engineer France’s exit from the European Union, by more than 20 points in the latest French surveys.
In the most recent Ipsos poll, taken after the televised debate between the candidates on Wednesday, Mr. Macron was at 61.5 percent and Ms. Le Pen at 38.5 percent.In the most recent Ipsos poll, taken after the televised debate between the candidates on Wednesday, Mr. Macron was at 61.5 percent and Ms. Le Pen at 38.5 percent.
In the second rounds of past presidential elections, French pollsters have, on average, been within 1 percent of the actual result. And that, according to Claire Durand, a professor of sociology at the University of Montreal and president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research, can mean only one thing.In the second rounds of past presidential elections, French pollsters have, on average, been within 1 percent of the actual result. And that, according to Claire Durand, a professor of sociology at the University of Montreal and president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research, can mean only one thing.
“There is absolutely no way that Le Pen could win,” she said. “If it were to happen, it would be a massacre.”“There is absolutely no way that Le Pen could win,” she said. “If it were to happen, it would be a massacre.”
In order for Ms. Le Pen to eke out an upset victory on Sunday, millions of voters who have consistently signaled a preference for Mr. Macron since January would all have to change their minds at the last minute.In order for Ms. Le Pen to eke out an upset victory on Sunday, millions of voters who have consistently signaled a preference for Mr. Macron since January would all have to change their minds at the last minute.
Polls have been wrong before, of course, but rarely are they that far wrong.Polls have been wrong before, of course, but rarely are they that far wrong.
By comparison, in the days immediately before the United States presidential election last year, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald J. Trump in the polls was about three percentage points, or as FiveThirtyEight put it on Nov. 4, four days before the election, “Trump is just a normal polling error behind Clinton.”By comparison, in the days immediately before the United States presidential election last year, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald J. Trump in the polls was about three percentage points, or as FiveThirtyEight put it on Nov. 4, four days before the election, “Trump is just a normal polling error behind Clinton.”
The anxiety about a Le Pen victory is a function not only of the perceived inaccuracies of foreign polls, but the accuracy of French polling.The anxiety about a Le Pen victory is a function not only of the perceived inaccuracies of foreign polls, but the accuracy of French polling.
Ms. Le Pen received 21.3 percent of the vote to Mr. Macron’s 23 percent in the first round of voting last month, just as the polls predicted. The fact that Ms. Le Pen, a firebrand accused of xenophobia and anti-Semitism, was able to beat nine other candidates and win enough votes to qualify for this weekend’s runoff prompted concern among establishment observers that she could continue the trend of a global shift to the right.Ms. Le Pen received 21.3 percent of the vote to Mr. Macron’s 23 percent in the first round of voting last month, just as the polls predicted. The fact that Ms. Le Pen, a firebrand accused of xenophobia and anti-Semitism, was able to beat nine other candidates and win enough votes to qualify for this weekend’s runoff prompted concern among establishment observers that she could continue the trend of a global shift to the right.
For now, however, populism does not seem to be sweeping Europe or upending the status quo. Europe was similarly on edge before votes in Austria and the Netherlands, where nationalist candidates won in early rounds of voting but lost in the end — just as the polls predicted.For now, however, populism does not seem to be sweeping Europe or upending the status quo. Europe was similarly on edge before votes in Austria and the Netherlands, where nationalist candidates won in early rounds of voting but lost in the end — just as the polls predicted.
While the news media is apt to blame pollsters for getting important elections wrong, the pollsters are just as likely to blame the news media.While the news media is apt to blame pollsters for getting important elections wrong, the pollsters are just as likely to blame the news media.
Many pollsters, including Professor Durand, insist that the news media does not adequately explain the margin of error to voters, giving the impression that even a single-digit lead represents an inevitable victory.Many pollsters, including Professor Durand, insist that the news media does not adequately explain the margin of error to voters, giving the impression that even a single-digit lead represents an inevitable victory.
“Without an explanation,” she said, “those numbers are meaningless.”“Without an explanation,” she said, “those numbers are meaningless.”