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Trump’s Silence Signals Diminished Enthusiasm for Marine Le Pen A Marine Le Pen Victory Wouldn’t Necessarily Be a Win for Trump
(35 minutes later)
WASHINGTON — After all but endorsing the far-right presidential candidate in France last week, President Trump has been conspicuously silent since his fellow populist Marine Le Pen finished second in the voting on Sunday and put herself within striking distance of the Élysée Palace.WASHINGTON — After all but endorsing the far-right presidential candidate in France last week, President Trump has been conspicuously silent since his fellow populist Marine Le Pen finished second in the voting on Sunday and put herself within striking distance of the Élysée Palace.
Mr. Trump’s reticence can be attributed to any number of factors: the White House’s reluctance to inject itself further in a foreign election; the fact that Mr. Trump is more focused on trumpeting his achievements after 100 days in office; or simply that Mr. Trump likes winners, and Ms. Le Pen looks likely to lose the runoff in two weeks.Mr. Trump’s reticence can be attributed to any number of factors: the White House’s reluctance to inject itself further in a foreign election; the fact that Mr. Trump is more focused on trumpeting his achievements after 100 days in office; or simply that Mr. Trump likes winners, and Ms. Le Pen looks likely to lose the runoff in two weeks.
But there is a more fundamental reason the president would do well to keep his enthusiasm for Ms. Le Pen in check. Her victory would be an acute headache for Mr. Trump, especially since he has adopted more conventional positions on NATO, the European Union and the Middle East.But there is a more fundamental reason the president would do well to keep his enthusiasm for Ms. Le Pen in check. Her victory would be an acute headache for Mr. Trump, especially since he has adopted more conventional positions on NATO, the European Union and the Middle East.
“If you put ‘America First’ next to ‘France First,’ that’s a recipe for the two countries going their own way,” said Charles A. Kupchan, who was senior director for European affairs on the National Security Council during the Obama administration. “It suggests that Le Pen would not be the partner that Trump believes she would be.”“If you put ‘America First’ next to ‘France First,’ that’s a recipe for the two countries going their own way,” said Charles A. Kupchan, who was senior director for European affairs on the National Security Council during the Obama administration. “It suggests that Le Pen would not be the partner that Trump believes she would be.”
Ms. Le Pen has vowed to withdraw France from the integrated military command of NATO, an alliance that Mr. Trump once derided but has more recently supported. She condemned his missile strike on Syria. And she has promised to hold a referendum within six months about whether to pull France out of the European Union — a move that, if successful, would almost certainly destroy the union and cause turmoil in global financial markets.Ms. Le Pen has vowed to withdraw France from the integrated military command of NATO, an alliance that Mr. Trump once derided but has more recently supported. She condemned his missile strike on Syria. And she has promised to hold a referendum within six months about whether to pull France out of the European Union — a move that, if successful, would almost certainly destroy the union and cause turmoil in global financial markets.
That last point ought to weigh heavily on Mr. Trump. He has pointed to the buoyant performance of the stock market as one of the most tangible yardsticks of his performance as president. The market’s rally on Monday — fueled by the relief that Ms. Le Pen’s rival, Emmanuel Macron, seems poised beat her in the next round — was a reminder of how much investor confidence hinges on the continued stability of the European Union.That last point ought to weigh heavily on Mr. Trump. He has pointed to the buoyant performance of the stock market as one of the most tangible yardsticks of his performance as president. The market’s rally on Monday — fueled by the relief that Ms. Le Pen’s rival, Emmanuel Macron, seems poised beat her in the next round — was a reminder of how much investor confidence hinges on the continued stability of the European Union.
“For the sake of world psychological health, it would be better if Macron won,” said John C. Kornblum, a former American ambassador to Germany who now works as a businessman in Berlin.“For the sake of world psychological health, it would be better if Macron won,” said John C. Kornblum, a former American ambassador to Germany who now works as a businessman in Berlin.
Mr. Kornblum said he believed Ms. Le Pen would be less of a change agent than many in France fear she will be — a corollary, perhaps, of Mr. Trump, who has not been able to carry out the most extreme elements of his campaign platform.Mr. Kornblum said he believed Ms. Le Pen would be less of a change agent than many in France fear she will be — a corollary, perhaps, of Mr. Trump, who has not been able to carry out the most extreme elements of his campaign platform.
Still, Ms. Le Pen’s election would inject a degree of uncertainty into Europe and NATO that would complicate the Trump administration’s efforts to deal with the Islamic State, the Syrian civil war, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan. In all these cases, analysts said, her inclination would be to pursue a more inward-looking path and to defy American leadership.Still, Ms. Le Pen’s election would inject a degree of uncertainty into Europe and NATO that would complicate the Trump administration’s efforts to deal with the Islamic State, the Syrian civil war, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan. In all these cases, analysts said, her inclination would be to pursue a more inward-looking path and to defy American leadership.
“She would be everything that was bad about de Gaulle, but much worse,” said Eliot A. Cohen, a professor of military history at Johns Hopkins University who served in the George W. Bush administration. “She would be everything that was bad about de Gaulle, but much worse,” said Eliot A. Cohen, a professor of military history at Johns Hopkins University who served in the administration of George W. Bush.
Charles de Gaulle, he said, supported the United States during the Cuban missile crisis and in the early days of the Vietnam War, even though he, too, withdrew France from NATO’s military command — a decision that was not reversed until 2009 by President Nicolas Sarkozy. Not only would Ms. Le Pen refuse to contribute more to NATO’s budget, she would also likely shun NATO-led military campaigns in places like Afghanistan.Charles de Gaulle, he said, supported the United States during the Cuban missile crisis and in the early days of the Vietnam War, even though he, too, withdrew France from NATO’s military command — a decision that was not reversed until 2009 by President Nicolas Sarkozy. Not only would Ms. Le Pen refuse to contribute more to NATO’s budget, she would also likely shun NATO-led military campaigns in places like Afghanistan.
Leaders across Europe backed Mr. Trump’s strike on a Syrian airfield. Ms. Le Pen viewed it as a betrayal of his campaign promises.Leaders across Europe backed Mr. Trump’s strike on a Syrian airfield. Ms. Le Pen viewed it as a betrayal of his campaign promises.
“Trump had said repeatedly that he didn’t intend the United States to be the world’s policeman any longer, and that is exactly what he did,” she told French television.“Trump had said repeatedly that he didn’t intend the United States to be the world’s policeman any longer, and that is exactly what he did,” she told French television.
While most Europeans leaders welcomed Mr. Trump’s about-face on NATO, she described it as incoherent. While most European leaders welcomed Mr. Trump’s about-face on NATO, she described it as incoherent.
“I am coherent,” she said to French radio. “I don’t change my mind in a few days. He had said he would not be the policeman of the world, that he would be the president of the United States and would not be the policeman of the world, but it seems today that he has changed his mind.”“I am coherent,” she said to French radio. “I don’t change my mind in a few days. He had said he would not be the policeman of the world, that he would be the president of the United States and would not be the policeman of the world, but it seems today that he has changed his mind.”
To some extent, Ms. Le Pen seems like a disillusioned fan. After Mr. Trump’s surprise victory, she said it had “made possible what had previously been impossible.” During the transition, she turned up in the lobby of Trump Tower, where she was seen having coffee at a cafe. But Mr. Trump kept her at arm’s length. Though he met with Nigel Farage, a prominent British euroskeptic, he did not meet Ms. Le Pen.To some extent, Ms. Le Pen seems like a disillusioned fan. After Mr. Trump’s surprise victory, she said it had “made possible what had previously been impossible.” During the transition, she turned up in the lobby of Trump Tower, where she was seen having coffee at a cafe. But Mr. Trump kept her at arm’s length. Though he met with Nigel Farage, a prominent British euroskeptic, he did not meet Ms. Le Pen.
Mr. Trump seems more attracted to Ms. Le Pen’s populist ideas than to her personally. Last week, after a terrorist attack on the Champs-Élysées left a policeman dead, he said on Twitter that it would transform the French election. In an interview with The Associated Press, Mr. Trump said Ms. Le Pen would be the prime beneficiary, though he did not formally endorse her.Mr. Trump seems more attracted to Ms. Le Pen’s populist ideas than to her personally. Last week, after a terrorist attack on the Champs-Élysées left a policeman dead, he said on Twitter that it would transform the French election. In an interview with The Associated Press, Mr. Trump said Ms. Le Pen would be the prime beneficiary, though he did not formally endorse her.
“It’ll probably help her because she is the strongest on borders and she is the strongest on what’s been going on in France,” he said.“It’ll probably help her because she is the strongest on borders and she is the strongest on what’s been going on in France,” he said.
In the end, Mr. Trump’s political analysis was only half right. While Ms. Le Pen finished second to Mr. Macron in a crowded field, virtually all the other candidates moved to isolate her, urging their supporters to back Mr. Macron. An independent former banker, Mr. Macron campaigned on a message of openness and not succumbing to fears of Islamic terrorism.In the end, Mr. Trump’s political analysis was only half right. While Ms. Le Pen finished second to Mr. Macron in a crowded field, virtually all the other candidates moved to isolate her, urging their supporters to back Mr. Macron. An independent former banker, Mr. Macron campaigned on a message of openness and not succumbing to fears of Islamic terrorism.
For some in Mr. Trump’s camp, the victory was less one of far-right populism than of anti-establishment insurgency. France’s two major parties were decimated in the election. And even Mr. Macron, who made millions at the investment firm Rothschild & Company, would not look out of place among the Goldman Sachs alumni in Mr. Trump’s White House.For some in Mr. Trump’s camp, the victory was less one of far-right populism than of anti-establishment insurgency. France’s two major parties were decimated in the election. And even Mr. Macron, who made millions at the investment firm Rothschild & Company, would not look out of place among the Goldman Sachs alumni in Mr. Trump’s White House.
Still, White House officials said Mr. Trump had more affinity for Ms. Le Pen, and was closer to her on the issues than his recent reversals suggested. He remains deeply suspicious of NATO, they noted, and has little affection for the European Union. As someone who long urged the United States to steer clear of foreign conflicts, one official said, he could even respect Ms. Le Pen’s misgivings about the Syria strike.Still, White House officials said Mr. Trump had more affinity for Ms. Le Pen, and was closer to her on the issues than his recent reversals suggested. He remains deeply suspicious of NATO, they noted, and has little affection for the European Union. As someone who long urged the United States to steer clear of foreign conflicts, one official said, he could even respect Ms. Le Pen’s misgivings about the Syria strike.
The trouble is, Mr. Trump, like his predecessors, relies heavily on France for help in military operations and intelligence sharing. When President Barack Obama called off his missile strike on Syria in 2013, French warplanes were fueled up and waiting on the runway. France takes part in the multinational military campaign against the Islamic State.The trouble is, Mr. Trump, like his predecessors, relies heavily on France for help in military operations and intelligence sharing. When President Barack Obama called off his missile strike on Syria in 2013, French warplanes were fueled up and waiting on the runway. France takes part in the multinational military campaign against the Islamic State.
“If Le Pen were to win, the counter-ISIL campaign in Iraq and Syria and broader antiterrorism efforts in North Africa would probably take a big hit,” said Mr. Kupchan, who teaches at Georgetown University, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “The worst-case scenario is that the E.U. collapses and Europe’s borders come back to life.”“If Le Pen were to win, the counter-ISIL campaign in Iraq and Syria and broader antiterrorism efforts in North Africa would probably take a big hit,” said Mr. Kupchan, who teaches at Georgetown University, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “The worst-case scenario is that the E.U. collapses and Europe’s borders come back to life.”
“My sense,” he added, “is that Trump is in the process of discovering Atlanticism.”“My sense,” he added, “is that Trump is in the process of discovering Atlanticism.”