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The French Election: What to Watch For The French Election: What to Watch For
(about 1 hour later)
France is electing its next president in what many see as a test of populism.France is electing its next president in what many see as a test of populism.
■ Voting began at 8 a.m. (2 a.m. EST) amid heightened security and will continue until 7 tonight in smaller towns and until 8 in larger cities.■ Voting began at 8 a.m. (2 a.m. EST) amid heightened security and will continue until 7 tonight in smaller towns and until 8 in larger cities.
■ Voters will choose from 11 candidates, with the four leading ones so close in the polls that it is too risky to predict the outcome.■ Voters will choose from 11 candidates, with the four leading ones so close in the polls that it is too risky to predict the outcome.
■ The two top vote-getters will go to a runoff election, which will be held on May 7.■ The two top vote-getters will go to a runoff election, which will be held on May 7.
■ Some see parallels to Britain’s departure from the European Union, known as “Brexit,” and Donald J. Trump’s rise in the United States.■ Some see parallels to Britain’s departure from the European Union, known as “Brexit,” and Donald J. Trump’s rise in the United States.
Of the top four, the two candidates narrowly ahead in recent polls were Marine Le Pen, 48, leader of the far-right National Front, and Emmanuel Macron, 39, the former banker and independent centrist. The mainstream right candidate, François Fillon, 63, has been battling corruption and nepotism charges but is still in the thick of the race.
Lastly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 65, their far-left rival, has ascended by parlaying his web savvy into a viral campaign to appeal to young voters with the use of speeches via holograms, YouTube talks and a video game.
Here’s what to watch for right now.Here’s what to watch for right now.
Of 11 candidates in the race, four are locked in a dead heat for the lead.
Marine Le Pen, 48, leader of the far-right National Front, was a slight front-runner for much of the campaign after years of trying to distance her party from a history of anti-Semitism. She had been losing ground as the campaign wound down, but the terror attack on Thursday night in Paris may now give her a final fillip of support. She has been stridently against Muslim immigration, linking it to security issues.
Emmanuel Macron, 39, a former banker and independent centrist, was virtually neck and neck with Ms. Le Pen. Socially liberal but economically conservative, he wants to loosen labor rules and make France more business-friendly, but he says he would preserve the social safety net. While he could draw votes from across the political spectrum, he is also regarded warily by both left and right for a shared distrust of global capitalism, which he is perceived to represent.
The mainstream right candidate, François Fillon, 63, has been battling corruption and nepotism charges but is still in the thick of the race. He has been tough on Muslim immigration and domestic security and was gaining in the final days. Conservative voters, who may still not want to vote for the far-right Ms. Le Pen, could be inclined to overlook the scandals that have swirled around Mr. Fillon’s campaign and cast their ballots for him.
Lastly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 65, their far-left rival, has ascended by parlaying his web savvy into a viral campaign to appeal to young voters with the use of speeches via holograms, YouTube talks and a video game. He has been cast as the Bernie Sanders of French politics and appeals to voters who want to preserve worker protections and a strong social safety net.
How to overcome France’s long economic malaise has been at the center of much of the campaign.
The impact of globalization is a stark dividing line. The far left and the far right have forcefully argued to blunt its effects, including by potentially withdrawing from the euro and the European Union.
The mainstream candidates are more business-friendly and want to lighten the hand of the state on business and make it easier to hire and fire workers. Mr. Fillon, in particular, has argued for drastically shrinking civil service jobs.
Domestic security, terrorism and Muslim immigration were omnipresent background issues that were suddenly thrust to the fore in the final days with the killing of a police officer in central in Paris on Thursday. The attack may now work in favor of law-and-order candidates like Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Fillon.
In this election, there are many undecided voters and many who will potentially abstain. Polls estimate that 20 percent to 30 percent of the French will not cast a ballot. Some of those are undecided and could make up their mind at the last minute.In this election, there are many undecided voters and many who will potentially abstain. Polls estimate that 20 percent to 30 percent of the French will not cast a ballot. Some of those are undecided and could make up their mind at the last minute.
A change in the abstention rate either up or down — could alter who wins, but it will also show how fed up the French are with the political choices offered by the system. Typically, about 80 percent of eligible voters go to the polls. The abstention rate will be released three times: at noon, 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. — or just after.A change in the abstention rate either up or down — could alter who wins, but it will also show how fed up the French are with the political choices offered by the system. Typically, about 80 percent of eligible voters go to the polls. The abstention rate will be released three times: at noon, 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. — or just after.
Another indicator of overall French disillusionment will be the number of protest votes cast. France has a tradition of voters’ putting a blank piece of paper in the ballot box to register their discontent with the options.Another indicator of overall French disillusionment will be the number of protest votes cast. France has a tradition of voters’ putting a blank piece of paper in the ballot box to register their discontent with the options.
While no one city is a perfect mirror, how the vote goes for Mr. Fillon, in Versailles, a heavily Roman Catholic suburb of Paris that often votes mainstream right, could indicate his strength nationwide.While no one city is a perfect mirror, how the vote goes for Mr. Fillon, in Versailles, a heavily Roman Catholic suburb of Paris that often votes mainstream right, could indicate his strength nationwide.
The Catholic vote is an important one in France, but voters are uncertain about Mr. Fillon because he has been shadowed by a nepotism scandal that led to charges of embezzlement.The Catholic vote is an important one in France, but voters are uncertain about Mr. Fillon because he has been shadowed by a nepotism scandal that led to charges of embezzlement.
The area around the city of Hénin-Beaumont, now a stronghold for Ms. Le Pen, used to lean heavily left. The strength of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate in northeastern France, where he battled Ms. Le Pen to represent the area in the legislative elections in 2012, could indicate his strength this year. In 2012, they both lost and did not make it to the run off. The area around the city of Hénin-Beaumont, now a stronghold for Ms. Le Pen, used to lean heavily left. The strength of Mr. Mélenchon in northeastern France, where he battled Ms. Le Pen to represent the area in the legislative elections in 2012, could indicate his strength this year. In 2012, they both lost and did not make it to the run off.
The city of Nice could be an indicator of the strength of Ms. Le Pen. The city, which has had a mainstream right mayor for many years, suffered a terrorist attack last summer that killed more than 80 people.The city of Nice could be an indicator of the strength of Ms. Le Pen. The city, which has had a mainstream right mayor for many years, suffered a terrorist attack last summer that killed more than 80 people.
Usually of little significance in national votes, this year, assuming the election is close, the “Outre mer” could make a difference.Usually of little significance in national votes, this year, assuming the election is close, the “Outre mer” could make a difference.
They include French Polynesia; French Guiana on the northern coast of South America; Mayotte island, off the coast of Mozambique; the Caribbean islands Guadalupe, Martinique and St. Bartholomew; the Indian Ocean island Réunion; and the islands St. Pierre and Miquelon, off the coast of northeast Canada.They include French Polynesia; French Guiana on the northern coast of South America; Mayotte island, off the coast of Mozambique; the Caribbean islands Guadalupe, Martinique and St. Bartholomew; the Indian Ocean island Réunion; and the islands St. Pierre and Miquelon, off the coast of northeast Canada.
Collectively, they have an estimated 7 percent of the electorate.Collectively, they have an estimated 7 percent of the electorate.
Exit polls will become available shortly after 8 p.m., and they are usually accurate. But this year, with the four leading candidates within four points of one another, every vote could make a difference.Exit polls will become available shortly after 8 p.m., and they are usually accurate. But this year, with the four leading candidates within four points of one another, every vote could make a difference.
The actual tallies will not come until later in the evening. You can view the breakdown as they come in for different cities on the Ministry of Interior’s website.The actual tallies will not come until later in the evening. You can view the breakdown as they come in for different cities on the Ministry of Interior’s website.