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What We Know in France: Macron and Le Pen Appear Headed for Runoff What We Know in France: Macron and Le Pen Appear Headed for Runoff
(about 1 hour later)
Emmanuel Macron, the centrist independent candidate, and Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, appear poised to face each other in France’s presidential runoff on May 7. Right Now: Emmanuel Macron, a centrist, pro-European Union candidate, appears headed for a runoff with Marine Le Pen of the far right in the French presidential race.
■ The first round of voting was seen as a test of populism in Europe. French voters appear to have rejected the traditional, mainstream parties. ■ Mr. Macron, an independent, and Ms. Le Pen, the leader of the National Front party, would face each other in a vote scheduled for May 7, based on early returns and projections.
■ François Fillon, the center-right candidate, has conceded. He and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left candidate, appeared to have been vying for third place. Official results are expected shortly. ■ The result seems to be “a full-throated rebuke of France’s traditional mainstream parties,” The Times’s Paris bureau chief, Alissa J. Rubin, reports. The runoff sets the country on an uncertain path that could also decide the future of the European Union.
■ Voters chose from 11 candidates, with the four leading ones so close in the polls just before the election that it had been too risky to predict the outcome. ■ New York Times correspondents in Paris and elsewhere in Europe have been following the vote live.
■ New York Times correspondents in Paris and elsewhere in Europe are following the vote live: Join the discussion.
■ Some see parallels to Britain’s departure from the European Union, known as “Brexit,” and Donald J. Trump’s rise in the United States.
Here’s what we know:Here’s what we know:
Of 11 candidates in the race, four were leading in the polls. François Fillon, the center-right candidate, has conceded. He and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left candidate, appeared to have been vying for third place. Official results are expected shortly.
Marine Le Pen, 48, the leader of the far-right National Front, was a slight front-runner or tied for first place for much of the campaign after years of trying to distance her party from a history of anti-Semitism. She had been losing ground as the campaign wound down, but the terror attack on Thursday night in Paris may now give her a final fillip of support. She has been stridently against Muslim immigration, linking it to security issues. With 34 percent of the vote counted, the Interior Ministry says that Ms. Le Pen is leading, with 24.6 percent of the vote, followed by Mr. Macron, with 21.9 percent. A lot of votes remain to be counted, but the consensus is that these two will make it into the May 7 runoff.
Emmanuel Macron, 39, a former banker and independent centrist, was virtually neck and neck with Ms. Le Pen. Socially liberal but in favor of more control in the marketplace, he wants to loosen labor rules and make France more business-friendly, but he says he would preserve the social safety net. While he could draw votes from across the political spectrum, he is also regarded warily by both left and right: on the left for his free-market ideas and support for the European Union; and on the right for his embrace of immigration and overall social outreach to all groups. Benoît Hamon, the Socialist candidate, also conceded defeat. Mr. Mélenchon has not conceded, saying that votes from some big cities have yet to be counted, and expecting that they could help him. (Early results showed Mr. Fillon and Mr. Mélenchon nearly tied for third place.)
The mainstream right candidate, François Fillon, 63, has been battling corruption and nepotism charges but is still in the thick of the race. Part of his economic recipe is to cut the size of government drastically, shedding 500,000 jobs over five years. He has been tough on Muslim immigration and domestic security and was gaining in the final days. Conservative voters, who may still not want to vote for the far-right Ms. Le Pen, could be inclined to overlook the scandals that have swirled around Mr. Fillon’s campaign and cast their ballots for him. Ms. Le Pen thanked her supporters on Sunday in the small town of Hénin-Beaumont, in northeastern France, telling them: “This result is historic.”
Lastly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 65, their far-left rival, has ascended by parlaying his web savvy and charisma into a viral campaign to appeal to young voters with the use of speeches via holograms touting a “take from the rich and give to the poor” program. He’s skeptical of the European Union. He’s used YouTube talks and a video game, and he has been called the Bernie Sanders of French politics and appeals to voters who want to preserve worker protections and a strong social safety net. She did not mention her apparent runoff rival, Mr. Macron, by name, but referred to him as the “heir” of the unpopular sitting president, François Hollande, a Socialist. She said it was “time to free the French people” of the “arrogant elites” who want to dictate to them.
She told her cheering supporters that the biggest issue of this election was “untamed globalization” that is threatening France and its culture, a theme she emphasized during the campaign.
Calling the projected first-round outcome “an act of French pride,” Ms. Le Pen said voters were “ sure of their values and confident of the future.”
Mr. Fillon, the mainstream right candidate who was dogged by charges of corruption and nepotism, said on Sunday, “The obstacles put on my path were too numerous, too cruel.”
He conceded and told supporters that “extremism can only bring about the misfortune and division of France,” and said he would therefore vote for Mr. Macron in the runoff against Ms. Le Pen.
Mr. Macron, 39, a former banker and independent centrist, was virtually neck and neck with Ms. Le Pen before the first-round vote. Socially liberal but in favor of more control in the marketplace, he wants to loosen labor rules and make France more business-friendly, but he says he would preserve the social safety net.
While he has the potential to draw votes from across the political spectrum, he is also regarded warily by both left and right: on the left for his free-market ideas and support for the European Union; and on the right for his embrace of immigration and overall social outreach to all groups.
Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, a Socialist, on Sunday called on French voters to back Mr. Macron in the runoff “to beat the National Front and to thwart its dire project of regression for France and division of the French.”
Mr. Cazeneuve called Ms. Le Pen’s agenda “dangerous and sectarian” and said that it would “impoverish, isolate and divide” the country.
The Socialist party candidate, Benoît Hamon, also threw his support behind Macron, a former Socialist himself who is now an independent.
Mr. Hamon, trying to explain his disappointing fifth-place finish to fellow Socialists, said: “I know you are waiting for a rebirth. Tonight it is painful. Tomorrow it will be fruitful. I do not promise it to you; I am asking it of you.”
How to overcome France’s long economic malaise has been at the center of much of the campaign.How to overcome France’s long economic malaise has been at the center of much of the campaign.
The impact of globalization is a stark dividing line. The far left and the far right have forcefully argued to blunt its effects, including by potentially withdrawing from the euro and the European Union.The impact of globalization is a stark dividing line. The far left and the far right have forcefully argued to blunt its effects, including by potentially withdrawing from the euro and the European Union.
The mainstream candidates are more business-friendly and want to lighten the hand of the state on business and make it easier to hire and fire workers.The mainstream candidates are more business-friendly and want to lighten the hand of the state on business and make it easier to hire and fire workers.
Domestic security, terrorism and Muslim immigration were omnipresent background issues that were suddenly thrust to the fore in the final days with the killing of a police officer in central in Paris on Thursday. The attack may now work in favor of law-and-order candidates like Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Fillon. Domestic security, terrorism and Muslim immigration were omnipresent background issues that were suddenly thrust to the fore in the final days with the killing of a police officer in central in Paris on Thursday. The attack had the potential to work in favor of law-and-order candidates like Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Fillon.
As of 5 p.m., turnout was 69.42 percent — ever so slightly lower than at that time in the 2012 election, which was considered a high-turnout contest.As of 5 p.m., turnout was 69.42 percent — ever so slightly lower than at that time in the 2012 election, which was considered a high-turnout contest.
Another indicator of overall French disillusionment will be the number of protest votes cast. France has a tradition of voters’ putting a blank piece of paper in the ballot box to register their discontent with the options. Another indicator of overall French disillusionment will be the number of protest votes cast. France has a tradition of voters’ putting a blank piece of paper in the ballot box to register their discontent with the options. Official results are expected soon.
While no one city is a perfect mirror, how the vote goes for Mr. Fillon, in Versailles, a heavily Roman Catholic suburb of Paris that often votes mainstream right, could indicate his strength nationwide.
The Catholic vote is an important one in France, but voters are uncertain about Mr. Fillon because he has been shadowed by a nepotism scandal that led to charges of embezzlement.
The area around the city of Hénin-Beaumont, now a stronghold for Ms. Le Pen, used to lean heavily left. The strength of Mr. Mélenchon in northeastern France, where he battled Ms. Le Pen to represent the area in the legislative elections in 2012, could indicate his strength this year. In 2012, they both lost and did not make it to the runoff.
The city of Nice could be an indicator of Ms. Le Pen’s strength. The city, which has had a mainstream right mayor for many years, suffered a terrorist attack last summer that killed more than 80 people.
Usually of little significance in national votes, this year, assuming the election is close, the “Outre mer” could make a difference.
They include French Polynesia; French Guiana on the northern coast of South America; Mayotte island, off the coast of Mozambique; the Caribbean islands Guadalupe, Martinique and St. Bartholomew; the Indian Ocean island Réunion; and the islands St. Pierre and Miquelon, off the coast of northeast Canada.
Collectively, they have an estimated 7 percent of the electorate.