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As the French Go to the Polls, Uncertainty Is the Only Sure Bet As the French Go to the Polls, Uncertainty Is the Only Sure Bet
(about 3 hours later)
PARIS — For at least the last three French elections, voters in the town of Louviers, about 60 miles northwest of Paris, have cast their ballots for the candidate who ultimately won the presidency. So who are they going to vote for on Sunday, in the country’s closest race in memory? PARIS — For at least the last three French elections, voters in the town of Louviers, about 60 miles northwest of Paris, have cast ballots for the candidate who ultimately won the presidency. So who are they voting for on Sunday, in the country’s closest race in memory?
“I haven’t decided. It’s gnawing at me,” said Charlène Hedoux, 30, a cleaning woman who was sitting at a bus stop this past week in central Louviers, which has a soaring Gothic church and bustling cafes. “I have children. I didn’t before. When one sees how these last few days have been going, it’s not very reassuring.”“I haven’t decided. It’s gnawing at me,” said Charlène Hedoux, 30, a cleaning woman who was sitting at a bus stop this past week in central Louviers, which has a soaring Gothic church and bustling cafes. “I have children. I didn’t before. When one sees how these last few days have been going, it’s not very reassuring.”
And that was before the terrorist attack on Thursday that left a police officer dead in central Paris and added yet another combustible element to an already volatile race.And that was before the terrorist attack on Thursday that left a police officer dead in central Paris and added yet another combustible element to an already volatile race.
The election on Sunday is one of the most consequential in recent times — not just for France, but for Europe — and one of the most unpredictable, too. The election on Sunday is one of the most consequential in recent times — not just for France, but for Europe — and one of the most unpredictable.
Even at this late stage, a remarkable 28 percent or so of voters remained undecided. The four leading candidates span the extremes of the political spectrum and are locked in a virtual dead heat.Even at this late stage, a remarkable 28 percent or so of voters remained undecided. The four leading candidates span the extremes of the political spectrum and are locked in a virtual dead heat.
The potential outcomes are just as broad. Depending on who wins, France could seek to leave the European Union and recast security alliances with a tilt toward Russia. Some would have France take harsher stands on Muslims, immigration and domestic security.The potential outcomes are just as broad. Depending on who wins, France could seek to leave the European Union and recast security alliances with a tilt toward Russia. Some would have France take harsher stands on Muslims, immigration and domestic security.
Alternately, France may elect a president who wants to shrink the ranks of civil servants, eliminate some job protections and reduce France’s generous welfare state, making the country more competitive in the global economy but risking a popular backlash. Yet another possibility: a winner who aspires to sharply increase taxes on the rich and nationalize banks.Alternately, France may elect a president who wants to shrink the ranks of civil servants, eliminate some job protections and reduce France’s generous welfare state, making the country more competitive in the global economy but risking a popular backlash. Yet another possibility: a winner who aspires to sharply increase taxes on the rich and nationalize banks.
The two candidates who receive the most votes on Sunday will compete in a runoff on May 7.The two candidates who receive the most votes on Sunday will compete in a runoff on May 7.
“There’s never been a campaign where the uncertainty was so uncertain,” said Edouard Lecerf, global director for political and opinion research for Kantar Public, a public opinion research firm. “The mistrust of politicians is stronger than it has ever been.”“There’s never been a campaign where the uncertainty was so uncertain,” said Edouard Lecerf, global director for political and opinion research for Kantar Public, a public opinion research firm. “The mistrust of politicians is stronger than it has ever been.”
That mistrust appears to have caused many voters to veer away from traditional politicians in search of someone they feel is more principled, prompting even candidates who are insiders to claim they are “outsiders.”That mistrust appears to have caused many voters to veer away from traditional politicians in search of someone they feel is more principled, prompting even candidates who are insiders to claim they are “outsiders.”
A majority of French voters have traditionally supported parties with established ideologies, either mainstream left or right. But traditional left-right allegiances are breaking down all over — in Europe, as they appear to have in the United States — as polarization grows. A majority of French voters have historically supported parties with established ideologies, either mainstream left or right. But traditional left-right allegiances are breaking down all over in Europe — as they appear to have in the United States — as polarization grows.
Globalization is a stark dividing line, with candidates on both the extreme left and right crusading against it, and more centrist candidates embracing it. Globalization is a new dividing line. Candidates on the extreme left and right crusaded against it, while the leading centrist candidate embraced it. That candidate, Emmanuel Macron, a former economy minister, formed a new party that combines pro-business, pro-European Union and pro-social welfare elements — a novelty in contemporary France.
Voters are looking to get away from politics as usual. That appears to have helped one of the leading candidates, Emmanuel Macron, a former economy minister who has formed a new party with a platform that combines pro-business, pro-European Union and pro-social welfare elements — a novelty in contemporary France. With allegiances to existing parties diminishing, pollsters have found some voters torn between diametrically opposed candidates.
With allegiances to existing parties diminishing, some French voters find themselves torn between candidates who are diametrically opposed. A good example was Pierre Haux, a teacher at a technical school, who attended a rally last week in Lille of the mainstream conservative candidate, François Fillon, who is under the cloud of a nepotism scandal that has led to claims of embezzlement.
A good example was Pierre Haux, a teacher at a technical school, who went to a rally last week in Lille of the mainstream conservative candidate, François Fillon, who is under the cloud of a nepotism scandal that has led to claims of embezzlement.
Mr. Haux said he was also weighing voting for the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but worried that he was “a one-man show.”Mr. Haux said he was also weighing voting for the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but worried that he was “a one-man show.”
The fluidity of the race has allowed each of the leading candidates to claim to be on the verge of victory. At least three of the top four candidates have been in the lead at some point, making it almost impossible to say who is the front-runner. The race’s fluidity has allowed each leading candidate to claim to be on the verge of victory. At least three have been in the lead at some point, making it almost impossible to identify the front-runner.
“I will be in the runoff,” Mr. Fillon told supporters confidently on Thursday, though the current polls make it look as if that would be a reach. “I will be in the runoff,” Mr. Fillon told supporters on Thursday, though the current polls suggest that would be a reach.
What has been most striking is how voters’ concerns keep shifting, from day to day and even hour to hour, almost as if they had been infected with the impatience of adolescents. That phenomenon is just one of several that pollsters said had made the race so unpredictable. Most striking is how voter concerns keep shifting, from day to day and even hour to hour, resembling the impatience of adolescents. That phenomenon is one of several that pollsters said had made the race so unpredictable.
In France, as elsewhere, the election may be decided in the provinces, in smaller and midsize towns and rural communities. Rural areas have proved especially unpredictable in recent votes, like Britain’s so-called Brexit vote to leave the European Union and President Trump’s election in the United States.In France, as elsewhere, the election may be decided in the provinces, in smaller and midsize towns and rural communities. Rural areas have proved especially unpredictable in recent votes, like Britain’s so-called Brexit vote to leave the European Union and President Trump’s election in the United States.
In addition, the trend lines — whether a candidate appears to be steadily gaining votes, losing them or remaining flat — are of little help. Most recently they have shown the third- and fourth-place candidates, Mr. Fillon and Mr. Mélenchon, gaining ground, while the two in the lead, Mr. Macron followed closely by the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, have remained flat or lost ground. In addition, the trend lines — whether a candidate appeared to be steadily gaining votes, losing them or remaining flat — underscored the race’s volatility. Most recently they showed the third- and fourth-place candidates, Mr. Fillon and Mr. Mélenchon, gaining, with the two in the lead, Mr. Macron followed closely by the far-right Marine Le Pen, remaining flat or losing ground.
For French voters, who are facing 10 percent unemployment, with levels closer to 25 percent for young people, the most pressing issues are economic, but even those can lead in multiple directions.For French voters, who are facing 10 percent unemployment, with levels closer to 25 percent for young people, the most pressing issues are economic, but even those can lead in multiple directions.
Some voters attribute France’s economic ills to poor leadership, others to globalization and still others to an influx of immigrants into the country. Some voters attribute France’s economic ills to poor leadership, others to globalization and still others to an influx of immigrants.
Unlike in other years, nothing in the current election has followed old patterns. Unlike in previous years, nothing in the current election has followed old patterns.
It is a cliché of French politics that voters follow their hearts in the first round, choosing the person they most want, but follow their heads in the runoff, choosing one less likely to do damage.It is a cliché of French politics that voters follow their hearts in the first round, choosing the person they most want, but follow their heads in the runoff, choosing one less likely to do damage.
That equation may no longer apply. Because the race is so close, voters may try to vote strategically from the beginning and not risk an outcome in which two extremist candidates reach the second round. That equation may no longer apply. Because the race is so close, voters may try to choose strategically on Sunday and not risk an outcome in which two extremist candidates reach the final round.
On the other hand, if tradition holds true, and voters do follow their hearts, it is not impossible to foresee a final round where voters must choose between two candidates at the extremes, Ms. Le Pen on the right and Mr. Mélenchon on the left. On the other hand, if tradition holds and voters follow their hearts, it is not impossible to foresee a final round where voters must choose between extremes, Ms. Le Pen on the right and Mr. Mélenchon on the left.
Significant numbers of voters also appear likely to abstain or to cast a blank piece of paper to show their dissatisfaction with all of their choices. That, too, would seem to favor the nonestablishment candidates, whose supporters are more motivated to go to the polls. Significant numbers of voters also appear likely to abstain or to cast a blank piece of paper to show their dissatisfaction. That, too, would seem to favor the nonestablishment candidates, whose supporters are more motivated to vote.
One such candidate is Ms. Le Pen, whose voters are passionate and have a deeply held conviction that she is the right choice. One such candidate is Ms. Le Pen, whose voters are passionately convinced she is the right choice.
“Let’s look after ourselves before we look after others,” said Catherine Rigaud, 56, who was waiting in line to enter the Zenith concert hall on the northeast edge of Paris where Ms. Le Pen was speaking in the campaign’s closing weeks. “Let’s look after ourselves before we look after others,” said Catherine Rigaud, 56, who was waiting in line to enter the Zenith concert hall on the northeast edge of Paris where Ms. Le Pen was speaking in the campaign’s last week.
Ms. Rigaud used to vote for the mainstream right but said she would now vote for Ms. Le Pen. She is unemployed and partially disabled and said that her 600 euro (about $640) monthly government support check did not cover her rent. Ms. Rigaud used to vote for the mainstream right but said she would now vote for Ms. Le Pen. She is unemployed and partly disabled and said that her 600 euro (about $640) monthly government support check did not cover her rent.
One of those who might cast a blank ballot is Sebastien Orange, an art teacher who lives in Louviers. He is fed up with politicians and will put a blank ballot in the voting box, he said as he watched ducks paddle in the placid Eure river, which runs through town. Sebastien Orange, an art teacher who lives in Louviers, is fed up with politicians and will put a blank ballot in the voting box, he said as he watched ducks paddle in the placid Eure river that runs through town.
“Today, with social media, we know that more than ever they take us for idiots, with money to throw away,” Mr. Orange said, referring to politicians and, obliquely, to the embezzlement charges hanging over Mr. Fillon and to accusations of financial malfeasance against Ms. Le Pen.“Today, with social media, we know that more than ever they take us for idiots, with money to throw away,” Mr. Orange said, referring to politicians and, obliquely, to the embezzlement charges hanging over Mr. Fillon and to accusations of financial malfeasance against Ms. Le Pen.
“One forgets 1789 and why their heads were cut off,” he added of France’s former royalty, who were toppled and beheaded in the course of the French Revolution. “One forgets 1789 and why their heads were cut off,” he added of France’s former royalty, toppled and beheaded in the French Revolution.
“They stuffed themselves, they never declared their wealth and people say nothing to them. It’s just shameful,” he said.“They stuffed themselves, they never declared their wealth and people say nothing to them. It’s just shameful,” he said.
More striking to pollsters is how changeable voters have been. The shooting of three police officers on the Champs Elysee only increased the volatility. Voters who had been leaning toward one camp said they were now likely to cast their ballots for a different candidate, one they perceived as tougher on law-and-order issues. More striking to pollsters is how changeable voters have been. The shooting of three police officers Thursday on the Champs-Élysées only increased the volatility. Some voters who had been leaning toward one camp said they were now likely to cast ballots for a different candidate, one they perceived as tougher on law-and-order issues.
“I used to hesitate between Macron and Fillon, but no longer,” said Roland Boulangé, 79, who was walking in his hometown, Rouen, a picturesque northern city, on Friday.“I used to hesitate between Macron and Fillon, but no longer,” said Roland Boulangé, 79, who was walking in his hometown, Rouen, a picturesque northern city, on Friday.
“I decided I’d vote for Fillon after the attack last night,” he said, choosing the more conservative of the two. “Macron is too young. We need someone experienced to fight against terrorism.”“I decided I’d vote for Fillon after the attack last night,” he said, choosing the more conservative of the two. “Macron is too young. We need someone experienced to fight against terrorism.”
Of 15 people interviewed on Friday in Rouen, about a quarter said they would change their vote; all had been in the somewhat-but-not-entirely undecided camp. Of 15 people interviewed on Friday in Rouen, less than a third said they would change their vote; all had been in the somewhat-but-not-entirely-undecided camp.
The major role played by social media in the campaign has also added a new element to the mix even as it opened up new ways for polling companies to study voters’ thinking. The major role played by social media in the campaign has added a new element to the mix even as it opened up new ways for polling companies to study voter thinking.
One company, Brandeye, which is based in South Africa and works for large financial institution, as well as candidates around the world, studies social media conversations to tabulate positive and negative words about candidates, and how frequently candidates are mentioned. One company, Brandeye, which is based in South Africa and works for large financial institutions, as well as candidates around the world, studies social media conversations to tabulate positive and negative words about candidates, and how frequently candidates are mentioned.
The company’s assessments, a “net sentiment” for each candidate, differed markedly from those of traditional pollsters, but were similarly in flux. “The sentiment is very, very volatile,” Nic Ray, the chief marketing officer, said.The company’s assessments, a “net sentiment” for each candidate, differed markedly from those of traditional pollsters, but were similarly in flux. “The sentiment is very, very volatile,” Nic Ray, the chief marketing officer, said.
“But both Fillon and Mélenchon have more positive comments,” he added, suggesting that those two could well end up in the second round of voting. “But both Fillon and Mélenchon have more positive comments,” he added, suggesting that those two could well end up in the final round.
A second round with that matchup has not been discussed much, but with four leading candidates, there are at least six potential combinations of winners in the first round, all of them within the realm of possibility. That matchup has not been discussed much, but with four leading candidates, at least six potential combinations of winners could emerge from the first round, all within the realm of possibility.