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France Poses Biggest Test Yet for Nationalist Ideas Like Trump’s France Poses Biggest Test Yet for Trump’s Brand of Nationalism
(about 5 hours later)
WASHINGTON — When President Trump swept into the White House in January, some of his advisers confidently predicted that his victory would set off a populist wave across Europe — one that would scatter mainstream parties on the left and right, and tether Europeans to the same nationalist ideology that Mr. Trump espoused in the United States. WASHINGTON — When President Trump swept into the White House in January, some of his advisers gleefully predicted that his victory would set off a populist wave across Europe, scattering mainstream parties on the left and right and wedding Europeans to the same nationalist ideology that Mr. Trump espoused in the United States.
It did not, in those days, seem a far-fetched proposition, with far-right parties ascendant across the Continent. With far-right parties then on the rise across the Continent, it did not seem that far-fetched a proposition.
Now, with the French election starting this weekend, Mr. Trump faces the biggest test yet of whether nationalist and nativist ideas like his appeal to voters elsewhere in the Western world. Now, with the French presidential election starting this weekend, Mr. Trump faces the stiffest test yet of whether his brand of nationalism and nativism appeals to voters elsewhere in the Western world.
That may explain why the president decided to weigh in on the campaign as brashly as he did on Friday, writing on Twitter that the terrorist shooting in Paris would upend the election.That may explain why the president decided to weigh in on the campaign as brashly as he did on Friday, writing on Twitter that the terrorist shooting in Paris would upend the election.
“The people of France will not take much more of this,” Mr. Trump said. “Will have a big effect on presidential election!”“The people of France will not take much more of this,” Mr. Trump said. “Will have a big effect on presidential election!”
Mr. Trump’s election followed Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, commonly known as Brexit, auguring the start of a populist wave. Far-right parties seemed on the rise in Austria, the Netherlands and even Germany, where nationalist parties had failed for decades to gain a foothold. The big prize was France, where Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front party, has a credible chance of winning the presidency, running on an anti-immigrant platform that echoes Mr. Trump’s. The White House insisted the president was not trying to tilt the outcome of an election abroad that includes a nationalist candidate. Officials said he was merely extrapolating from his own experience: In late 2015, Mr. Trump’s candidacy got a propulsive lift from fears of terrorism in the aftermath of deadly terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif.
But if Mr. Trump is keeping score, as he most assuredly is, the Trump wave has yet to form. If anything, Europeans have turned against nationalists. In Austria in December, voters narrowly chose a Green Party candidate over one from the far-right Freedom Party as president. In the Netherlands last month, the Party of Freedom fell short of being the largest party in the House of Representatives, though it is the second largest. But Mr. Trump always viewed his victory as part of a global populist movement. His election came just months after Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, commonly known as Brexit. Far-right parties seemed to be on the rise in Austria, the Netherlands and even Germany, where nationalist parties had failed for decades to gain a foothold.
Ms. Le Pen still has a chance of winning. But France’s presidential election has become a fragmented affair, with her and three other candidates — a conventional conservative; a centrist ex-banker; and a rising leftist — all vying to emerge from the pack in a campaign that has been driven as much by economic concerns as terrorism and security. The big prize was France. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front party, has a credible chance of winning the presidency, running on an anti-immigrant platform that echoes Mr. Trump’s.
While Mr. Trump did not name any candidates in his Twitter post, there is little doubt among experts that he favors Ms. Le Pen. She has seized on Thursday’s fatal shooting of a policeman on the Champs-Élysées, an act claimed by the Islamic State, to turn the election into a referendum on what she calls “radical Islam.” If Mr. Trump is keeping score, however, as he most assuredly is, he would have to admit the Trump wave has yet to rise. In Austria in December, voters narrowly chose a Green Party candidate over one from the far-right Freedom Party as president. In the Netherlands last month, the Party of Freedom fell short of being the largest party in the House of Representatives. Some European analysts speak of a Trump backlash.
Fears about Mr. Trump’s influence over European elections deepened after the disclosure that Breitbart News, the far-right website formerly run by his chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, planned to open offices in Paris and Berlin. (Mr. Bannon has cut his ties with Breitbart. And though many are convinced that the White House still exerts influence over its coverage, the website has also been critical of the Trump administration and angered Mr. Bannon.) Ms. Le Pen still has a chance of winning. But France’s presidential election has become a fragmented affair, with her and three other candidates — a conventional conservative; a centrist, a former banker; and a rising leftist — all vying to emerge from the pack in a campaign that has been driven as much by concerns over the economy as terrorism and security. Voters will choose among 11 candidates in the first round of national voting on Sunday.
It is not clear whether the White House has tried to influence the election in France in other ways. Mr. Bannon did not return a request for comment. Moreover, Mr. Trump is unpopular in France, and as a result, Ms. Le Pen does not invoke his name on the campaign trail, even if his campaign is in some ways a blueprint for hers.
Some European diplomats said the greater threat of interference was not from the United States but from Russia, which has used internet trolls and “fake news” to disrupt European elections, much as it did during the 2016 United States presidential campaign. There is little doubt he favors Ms. Le Pen. In an interview with The Associated Press, Mr. Trump said Friday that though he would not endorse her, the fatal shooting of a police officer on the Champs-Élysées, an act claimed by the Islamic State, would help her because she was the candidate who is “strongest on borders, and she’s the strongest on what’s been going on in France.”
Ms. Le Pen seized on the attack to turn the election into a referendum on what she calls “radical Islam.”
She and Mr. Trump do not know each other, but early on, she clearly sought to tie herself to his success. After his election, Ms. Le Pen exulted that it had “made possible what had previously been impossible.” In January, during the transition, Ms. Le Pen was photographed having coffee at the Trump Tower cafe, prompting a flurry of rumors about whether she was in Manhattan to meet the president-elect. (Mr. Trump’s aides denied it.)
Fears about Mr. Trump’s influence over elections in Europe deepened after the disclosure that Breitbart News, the far-right website formerly run by the president’s chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, planned to open offices in Paris and Berlin. (Mr. Bannon has cut his ties with Breitbart, though he continues to talk to its journalists. While many are convinced that the White House exerts influence over its coverage, the website has also been critical of the Trump administration, angering Mr. Bannon in at least one case.)
There is little evidence the White House has tried to influence the election in France, beyond Mr. Trump’s Twitter post. Even that, the White House argued, was simply the president acting as a political analyst.
“Major events have, clearly, effects on voters’ attitudes,” said the White House press secretary, Sean Spicer. “But I’m not going to weigh in. Let the voters of France decide this Sunday what direction they want their country to go in.”
Some European diplomats said the real threat of interference was not from the United States but from Russia, which has used internet trolls, “fake news” and hacking to disrupt European elections, much as it did during the 2016 United States presidential campaign.
American presidents generally avoid meddling too obviously in the politics of other countries, though there is plenty of precedent for their trying to influence outcomes in less obvious ways.American presidents generally avoid meddling too obviously in the politics of other countries, though there is plenty of precedent for their trying to influence outcomes in less obvious ways.
Mr. Trump has little use for such diplomatic niceties. Soon after being elected, he publicly advised the British government to appoint the pro-Brexit leader, Nigel Farage, as ambassador to the United States.Mr. Trump has little use for such diplomatic niceties. Soon after being elected, he publicly advised the British government to appoint the pro-Brexit leader, Nigel Farage, as ambassador to the United States.
Even President Barack Obama, who tried to avoid being accused of meddling, got into trouble when he warned Britain, before the Brexit referendum, that it would go to the end of the line in future trade negotiations with the United States if it voted to leave the European Union. Even President Barack Obama, who tried to avoid being accused of meddling, got into trouble when he warned Britain, before the referendum, that it would go to the end of the line in future trade negotiations with the United States if it voted to leave the European Union.
This week, Mr. Obama’s aides played down the significance of a phone call on Thursday between him and Emmanuel Macron, the former banker and independent candidate, who urged the French not to overreact to the shooting in Paris. This week, Mr. Obama’s aides played down the significance of a phone call between him and Emmanuel Macron, the former banker and independent candidate, who urged the French not to overreact to the Paris shooting.
“They want France to be afraid,” Mr. Macron said, sounding a lot like Mr. Obama. “They want France to be afraid,” Mr. Macron said of the terrorists, sounding a lot like Mr. Obama.
In France, where political experts and pollsters were struggling to gauge the consequences of Thursday’s attack on the psyche of voters, Mr. Trump’s Twitter message was expected to carry little weight.
“It’s nonexistent,” said Thomas Guénolé, a political scientist and lecturer at Sciences Po, a political science institute in Paris. Voters who would possibly be influenced by Mr. Trump’s views were “very politicized,” he said, and were probably already voting for Ms. Le Pen.
None of the presidential candidates, nor other major French politicians, reacted to Mr. Trump’s Twitter post, and it was barely mentioned by French Twitter users, said Guilhem Fouetillou, the head of Linkfluence, which monitors the impact of social media services.
“It mostly has Americans reacting,” he said.