Martha Kearney's week

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By Martha Kearney Presenter, BBC Radio 4's The World at One Gordon Brown defended the 42-day limit during Prime Minister's Questions

"Whoops-a-daisy!" Such a charming old-fashioned ring - as if Bertie Wooster had been caught with the Georgian cow-creamer in Gussie Fink-Nottle's bedroom.

But for sheer ineptitude in the midst of a political crisis, the use of "whoops-a-daisy" by Giles Chichester over his expenses must rank alongside David Blunkett singing the Fred Astaire song "Pick Yourself Up, Dust Yourself Off, and Start All Over Again" at a parliamentary dinner at the height of the Nannygate scandal.

David Cameron dealt with Giles Chichester swiftly, but it must have reminded him how quickly political problems can burst out of the blue.

As Bertie once described Aunt Agatha, her "demeanour was rather like that of one who, picking daisies on the railway, has just caught the down express in the small of the back".

Wooing the rebels

Luckily for the Conservatives, the down express still seems to be bearing down on the government.

Its problems are continuing, especially with next Wednesday's vote looming on proposals to detain terrorist suspects for 42 days without charge.

At the beginning of this week, there were signs of a clear government fightback.

Element One in the grid: Gordon Brown's article for The Times in which he stated that he would stick to his principles on this issue.

After the U-turn on ten pence tax, he didn't want to appear weak.

Element Two: Monday's Parliamentary Labour Party meeting. Behind the scenes there have been serious efforts to woo the rebels, and Jacqui Smith won some converts with her speech.

Keith Vaz and others (in an orchestrated operation?) gave interviews immediately afterwards saying they were now happy with the concessions.

Element Three: on Tuesday, Peter Clarke, the former senior anti-terrorist officer at Scotland Yard, voiced his support for 42-day detention.

Offers and threats

There has been immense pressure on the rebels to give way.

Many I have talked to have received one of those famous calls from Gordon Brown (though not at six in the morning). Do you really want to undermine Gordon Brown, the whips argue, when the party is so low in the polls?

There've been one-to-one meetings with Jacqui Smith, Geoff Hoon and Jack Straw.

Campaigners claim that honours and other inducements are being offered, and threats made of special government jobs being taken away.

The most effective argument seems to be the political one. Do you really want to undermine Gordon Brown, the whips argue, when the party is so low in the polls?

I talked to one senior backbencher who is totally opposed to the bill, but has decided to vote with the government for the sake of party unity.

Then there are the big guns pounding in the other direction. I interviewed Director of Public Prosecutions Sir Ken Macdonald and asked him about 42 days.

In an interview in December he had told me of his concerns about the proposed legislation. Had they been removed by the government's concessions, I wondered?

He replied that his views haven't changed.

"If you think something isn't needed, the means of delivering it are probably rather irrelevant."

The DPP believes that terrorist suspects could be charged using a "lower threshold" which the Crown Prosecution Service has been using.

Normally the test is above 50% chance of conviction. That can be replaced by a "reasonable chance" of conviction.

But the government's independent reviewer of terrorist legislation, Liberal Democrat peer Lord Carlile, told me on Monday that he was very unhappy about that prospect.

It meant that "someone could be charged with terrorism by a lower standard than they would in a burglary or a theft case", he said.

His stout defence of the government is causing some consternation in Lib Dem ranks. 

Close call

So how many Labour rebels would it take to overturn the government's majority? I asked Philip Cowley from the University of Nottingham, who knows enough about rebellions to become chief whip himself.

He reckons it will be about 45 if the DUP and UUP vote with the government. A narrow victory would show he has asserted his principles and leadership, but that is by no means in the bag.

Those in the thick of it are making continual calculations. The anti-bill campaigners believe their votes are being eroded but that they still have just enough to defeat the government.

Some MPs who supported the government on 90-day detention are now prepared to rebel on 42 days.

Paul Farrelly, who has voted loyally on every other piece of terrorist legislation, told Shaun Ley on The World at One on Friday that he was very unhappy with the plans.

He called them arbitrary, divisive and "a perversion of Parliament". He also said that he had told Gordon Brown in a phone call that this was going back on sterile political ground after change had been promised.

There may be a handful of Tory rebels too. At least one Conservative, Ann Widdecombe, will vote with the government. She told me on Monday that there were political risks for the Conservatives in opposing counter-terrorist legislation.

That's what the government hopes. One of the prime minister's closest allies told me he hoped this would put the Tories in a bad place, and also that the bill is a genuine test of leadership for Gordon.

His supporters believe that this episode can possibly be turned to his advantage. A narrow victory would show he has asserted his principles and leadership, but that is by no means in the bag.

How would Bertie describe the prime minister's mood this weekend? "If not exactly disgruntled, he is far from being gruntled."

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