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| Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May hurtle through the looking glass | Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May hurtle through the looking glass |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Whatever David Cameron does with the rest of his life, I recommend that he does not pursue a career as a futurologist. On the morning after the referendum on Scottish independence, the then prime minister stood outside Number 10 confidently proclaiming that Scotland’s position in the United Kingdom had been secured “for a generation”. Some of us said at the time that this declaration ought to be taken with a truckload of salt. Evidence from elsewhere – Quebec being a notable example – indicated that it would take two votes before it was ultimately settled one way or another. And we didn’t know then how many forces would conspire to make it even likelier that the Scots would have another on independence. | Whatever David Cameron does with the rest of his life, I recommend that he does not pursue a career as a futurologist. On the morning after the referendum on Scottish independence, the then prime minister stood outside Number 10 confidently proclaiming that Scotland’s position in the United Kingdom had been secured “for a generation”. Some of us said at the time that this declaration ought to be taken with a truckload of salt. Evidence from elsewhere – Quebec being a notable example – indicated that it would take two votes before it was ultimately settled one way or another. And we didn’t know then how many forces would conspire to make it even likelier that the Scots would have another on independence. |
| The surge towards identity politics that is reshaping countries across the democratic world has combined with the machinations and miscalculations of individual politicians to transform the picture. A second Scottish referendum has turned from a highly probable event into an almost inevitable one. | The surge towards identity politics that is reshaping countries across the democratic world has combined with the machinations and miscalculations of individual politicians to transform the picture. A second Scottish referendum has turned from a highly probable event into an almost inevitable one. |
| Above all else, the Brexit vote has furnished the Scottish nationalists with the ideal grounds for a further push for secession. They made a manifesto commitment to stage a second referendum in the event of a “material” change in Scotland’s circumstances. There can’t be any serious argument that the UK’s departure from the European Union is a material change. If they were candid, the nationalists might acknowledge that they would have been working towards another attempt at separation whichever form of Brexit was chosen by Mrs May. | Above all else, the Brexit vote has furnished the Scottish nationalists with the ideal grounds for a further push for secession. They made a manifesto commitment to stage a second referendum in the event of a “material” change in Scotland’s circumstances. There can’t be any serious argument that the UK’s departure from the European Union is a material change. If they were candid, the nationalists might acknowledge that they would have been working towards another attempt at separation whichever form of Brexit was chosen by Mrs May. |
| If she’d gone for a version of departure from the EU so soft and gentle that even Nick Clegg might have lived with it, you have to suspect that the SNP would still have found a reason to argue that Scots needed to reappraise the decision they made in 2014. But it is no less true that additional and incendiary ammunition has been handed to the nationalists by Mrs May’s decision to pursue a rock-hard version of Brexit that privileges the desires of the Brextremists over everything and everyone else. The prime minister has fuelled the constitutional inferno with her inflexible failure to make any accommodation at all with the large number of voters – a substantial majority of them in the case of Scotland – who didn’t want to leave the EU. The SNP can now contend that it is not they who are the reckless parochialists; they can pitch themselves as the sane internationalists trying to save their country from a rampant English Tory nationalism. | If she’d gone for a version of departure from the EU so soft and gentle that even Nick Clegg might have lived with it, you have to suspect that the SNP would still have found a reason to argue that Scots needed to reappraise the decision they made in 2014. But it is no less true that additional and incendiary ammunition has been handed to the nationalists by Mrs May’s decision to pursue a rock-hard version of Brexit that privileges the desires of the Brextremists over everything and everyone else. The prime minister has fuelled the constitutional inferno with her inflexible failure to make any accommodation at all with the large number of voters – a substantial majority of them in the case of Scotland – who didn’t want to leave the EU. The SNP can now contend that it is not they who are the reckless parochialists; they can pitch themselves as the sane internationalists trying to save their country from a rampant English Tory nationalism. |
| The SNP can now contend that it is not they who are the reckless parochialists | |
| To an extent that is not widely appreciated, Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to go for broke by calling for a fresh plebiscite represents a dramatic shift in her strategy. At the time of their 2015 party conference in Aberdeen, I was told by senior figures in the SNP that they wouldn’t contemplate having another go until they were in possession of robust evidence of a shift in Scottish opinion. They were then saying that they wouldn’t try again until they had seen a 10-point poll lead in favour of independence sustained for at least a year. | To an extent that is not widely appreciated, Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to go for broke by calling for a fresh plebiscite represents a dramatic shift in her strategy. At the time of their 2015 party conference in Aberdeen, I was told by senior figures in the SNP that they wouldn’t contemplate having another go until they were in possession of robust evidence of a shift in Scottish opinion. They were then saying that they wouldn’t try again until they had seen a 10-point poll lead in favour of independence sustained for at least a year. |
| There was some dissent from this cautious approach, notably from Alex Salmond, the party’s former leader. He always thought they should have another go sooner rather than later. His view has prevailed even though the polls on independence don’t pass that 10-point-lead-for-a-year test for success SNP strategists used to set. The Opinium poll that we publish today suggests that voters north of the border are almost evenly divided on whether Scotland ought to remain within a post-Brexit UK. The margin is a tight 51 to 49. By the way, the split is exactly the same among English voters, suggesting that about half of the English would be very happy to see the end of the union. | There was some dissent from this cautious approach, notably from Alex Salmond, the party’s former leader. He always thought they should have another go sooner rather than later. His view has prevailed even though the polls on independence don’t pass that 10-point-lead-for-a-year test for success SNP strategists used to set. The Opinium poll that we publish today suggests that voters north of the border are almost evenly divided on whether Scotland ought to remain within a post-Brexit UK. The margin is a tight 51 to 49. By the way, the split is exactly the same among English voters, suggesting that about half of the English would be very happy to see the end of the union. |
| I recently suggested to you that Mrs May is more of a gambler than she realises. The same, we can now say, is true of Ms Sturgeon. It is one of the great ironies of our time that two women both previously renowned as risk-averse operators have become gamblers making massive blind bets on their careers and their countries’ fortunes. | I recently suggested to you that Mrs May is more of a gambler than she realises. The same, we can now say, is true of Ms Sturgeon. It is one of the great ironies of our time that two women both previously renowned as risk-averse operators have become gamblers making massive blind bets on their careers and their countries’ fortunes. |
| Ms Sturgeon has come round to the view that it is worth going for broke because the next few years could be the best opportunity that her cause will ever get. The stars may never be more promisingly aligned for the nationalists. Labour’s vertiginous decline in Scotland has shrivelled what used to be the primary unionist party north of the border. Though the Tories have enjoyed a bit of a revival under the leadership of Ruth Davidson, they are nothing like strong enough to be the firewall against independence that Labour was before its collapse. It is also worth recalling that at the time of the first referendum in 2014, many folk thought Labour would win the 2015 general election, disabling the nationalist argument that independence was the only way to liberate Scots from the rule of wicked English Tories. The feebleness of Labour under its current management re-arms the nationalists with the traditional argument that Scots are doomed to suffer permanent rule by southern Conservatives if the country remains within the United Kingdom. So for the nationalists, if it were done, then ’twere well it were done quickly. | Ms Sturgeon has come round to the view that it is worth going for broke because the next few years could be the best opportunity that her cause will ever get. The stars may never be more promisingly aligned for the nationalists. Labour’s vertiginous decline in Scotland has shrivelled what used to be the primary unionist party north of the border. Though the Tories have enjoyed a bit of a revival under the leadership of Ruth Davidson, they are nothing like strong enough to be the firewall against independence that Labour was before its collapse. It is also worth recalling that at the time of the first referendum in 2014, many folk thought Labour would win the 2015 general election, disabling the nationalist argument that independence was the only way to liberate Scots from the rule of wicked English Tories. The feebleness of Labour under its current management re-arms the nationalists with the traditional argument that Scots are doomed to suffer permanent rule by southern Conservatives if the country remains within the United Kingdom. So for the nationalists, if it were done, then ’twere well it were done quickly. |
| There is one snag to these SNP calculations. Mrs May has already worked out most of that for herself. From her point of view, there was really no choice but to refuse to concede a referendum to the SNP’s deadline of spring 2019. The prime minister’s allies acknowledge that this runs the risk of playing into nationalist hands by making her look arrogantly intransigent in the eyes of Scots. But it would be even more dangerous from Mrs May’s perspective to be embroiled in a Scottish referendum campaign just at the point when her Brexit negotiations will be at their crunchiest and the UK’s economic future at its most uncertain. As some of Mrs May’s supporters acknowledge, she also wanted to display a bit of steeliness lest anyone, especially the EU negotiators that wait for her, might have got the impression from the ignominious cave-in over the budget that she buckles under pressure. | There is one snag to these SNP calculations. Mrs May has already worked out most of that for herself. From her point of view, there was really no choice but to refuse to concede a referendum to the SNP’s deadline of spring 2019. The prime minister’s allies acknowledge that this runs the risk of playing into nationalist hands by making her look arrogantly intransigent in the eyes of Scots. But it would be even more dangerous from Mrs May’s perspective to be embroiled in a Scottish referendum campaign just at the point when her Brexit negotiations will be at their crunchiest and the UK’s economic future at its most uncertain. As some of Mrs May’s supporters acknowledge, she also wanted to display a bit of steeliness lest anyone, especially the EU negotiators that wait for her, might have got the impression from the ignominious cave-in over the budget that she buckles under pressure. |
| It is important to note that the Tory leader has not ruled out a second referendum altogether. The prime minister’s blocking formula is designed to sound firm without being unreasonable and has been secretly tested on focus groups of Scottish voters. That formula goes: “Now is not the time.” This is another of those May constructions that superficially sound definitive, but are really quite slippery. What she is trying to do is play it long. She would like to delay the question beyond spring 2021, the date of the next elections to the Holyrood parliament, in the hope that post-Brexit Britain might have stabilised by then and the SNP will be weaker. By 2021, the nationalists will have been ruling the roost in Edinburgh for 14 years, a remarkably long stretch of power. The normal laws of political gravity might have been restored. | It is important to note that the Tory leader has not ruled out a second referendum altogether. The prime minister’s blocking formula is designed to sound firm without being unreasonable and has been secretly tested on focus groups of Scottish voters. That formula goes: “Now is not the time.” This is another of those May constructions that superficially sound definitive, but are really quite slippery. What she is trying to do is play it long. She would like to delay the question beyond spring 2021, the date of the next elections to the Holyrood parliament, in the hope that post-Brexit Britain might have stabilised by then and the SNP will be weaker. By 2021, the nationalists will have been ruling the roost in Edinburgh for 14 years, a remarkably long stretch of power. The normal laws of political gravity might have been restored. |
| To Mrs May’s refusal, the Scottish Nationalists have reacted exactly as you would expect them to respond. They have expressed public fury at what Ms Sturgeon calls “a democratic outrage” while expressing private satisfaction that this gives them plenty of opportunity to stoke grievances. The British prime minister and the Scottish first minister are now engaged in a mine-is-bigger-than-yours boasting contest about who has the larger mandate and greater authority. This rather goes to show that it is not just male politicians who can get into pissing competitions. | To Mrs May’s refusal, the Scottish Nationalists have reacted exactly as you would expect them to respond. They have expressed public fury at what Ms Sturgeon calls “a democratic outrage” while expressing private satisfaction that this gives them plenty of opportunity to stoke grievances. The British prime minister and the Scottish first minister are now engaged in a mine-is-bigger-than-yours boasting contest about who has the larger mandate and greater authority. This rather goes to show that it is not just male politicians who can get into pissing competitions. |
| On the issue of timing, the Scots appear to be in contradictory minds. Pollsters report that a majority don’t want another referendum soon, but they also object to a plebiscite being blocked by Westminster. I don’t want to eat that – unless you tell me I can’t. | On the issue of timing, the Scots appear to be in contradictory minds. Pollsters report that a majority don’t want another referendum soon, but they also object to a plebiscite being blocked by Westminster. I don’t want to eat that – unless you tell me I can’t. |
| If the voters are being contradictory, they are at least matched in their illogicality by the protagonists on both sides. Pro-Brexit unionists are in the hideously contorted position of arguing that Scots should not “take back control”, precisely the opposite of what they have told Britain in relation to the EU. The SNP is telling Scots that being deprived of access to the single market will be so bad for them that they should compound the damage by quitting the single market with England, the destination for the bulk of Scottish exports. | If the voters are being contradictory, they are at least matched in their illogicality by the protagonists on both sides. Pro-Brexit unionists are in the hideously contorted position of arguing that Scots should not “take back control”, precisely the opposite of what they have told Britain in relation to the EU. The SNP is telling Scots that being deprived of access to the single market will be so bad for them that they should compound the damage by quitting the single market with England, the destination for the bulk of Scottish exports. |
| But the people least qualified to scare Scotland with the economic perils of going it alone are the Brexiters who plan to wrench Britain out of the world’s largest trading bloc. The SNP has a changing and confused line on the EU, with some of its people now saying that they would not necessarily seek membership for an independent Scotland. The fact that a third of Scottish voters chose both independence and Brexit might have something to do with the shaping of that position. Both sides are hurtling through the looking glass. | But the people least qualified to scare Scotland with the economic perils of going it alone are the Brexiters who plan to wrench Britain out of the world’s largest trading bloc. The SNP has a changing and confused line on the EU, with some of its people now saying that they would not necessarily seek membership for an independent Scotland. The fact that a third of Scottish voters chose both independence and Brexit might have something to do with the shaping of that position. Both sides are hurtling through the looking glass. |
| I suppose we should have realised by now that logic has become an extremely poor guide to the behaviour of many politicians and voters in the current climate. At a time of febrile instability, anyone who tells you that anything is settled for “a generation” is going to be made to look like a complete idiot. Nothing is settled for five minutes. | I suppose we should have realised by now that logic has become an extremely poor guide to the behaviour of many politicians and voters in the current climate. At a time of febrile instability, anyone who tells you that anything is settled for “a generation” is going to be made to look like a complete idiot. Nothing is settled for five minutes. |
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