A Dent in Europe’s Populism

http://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/opinion/a-dent-in-europes-populism.html

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Bucking fears that the Netherlands would be the next populist domino after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s election in the United States, the Dutch turned out in record numbers on Wednesday to reject the anti-Muslim platform of the far-right candidate Geert Wilders. The Dutch election was seen as a potential bellwether for elections in France and Germany, where far-right populist parties have gained ground. But it is premature to assume the Dutch result signals the defeat of far-right populism in Europe.

The Dutch parliamentary election was a highly fractured affair, with 28 parties competing for 150 seats. It takes 76 seats to form a government. Though the final result will not be announced until Tuesday, with most of the votes already counted, Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy won with 33 seats. Mr. Rutte will have to seek — as is the usual case in the Netherlands — partners to form a coalition government, which could take weeks or even months.

Mr. Rutte is likely to turn to the conservative Christian Democratic Appeal party and the center-left, pro-European Democrats 66 party, each of which won 19 seats. Even if those parties joined his coalition, he would still need at least one more party to reach 76 seats. That party could be the left-leaning, pro-European Greens, which increased their seats to 14 from just four. But, however the horse trading goes, the Netherlands looks set to form a staunchly pro-European government.

That idea has cheered European leaders. On Thursday, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, which will hold its election in September, said she “was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result, a clear signal.” President François Hollande of France hailed a “clear victory against extremism.”

Still, it would be a mistake to assume the Dutch vote will translate into a defeat for Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Front party in France. While polls indicate the En Marche! candidate Emmanuel Macron will beat Ms. Le Pen in a second round of voting on May 7, polls have had a sorry track record in populist-fueled elections. They predicted a far stronger showing by Mr. Wilders, and missed the Brexit and Trump victories.

Despite his defeat, Mr. Wilders’s Party for Freedom did come in second with 20 seats, and he remains a powerful far-right provocateur. “Rutte has not seen the last of me yet!” Mr. Wilders wrote on Twitter. Nor would a defeat for Ms. Le Pen in May put an end to her movement. The Dutch vote is encouraging, but the threat of far-right populism in Europe continues.