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PM Mark Rutte on course to beat Geert Wilders in Dutch election PM Mark Rutte sees off challenge of Geert Wilders in Dutch election
(about 7 hours later)
The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, and his liberal VVD party appear to have comfortably beaten the anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders to become the largest in the new parliament, a usually reliable exit poll suggested. The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, has comfortably seen off a challenge from the anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders to claim victory in parliamentary elections widely seen as a test for resurgent nationalism before key European polls.
In the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are seeking electoral breakthroughs, the VVD lost 10 seats but was still on course to return 31 MPs to the 150-seat parliament, the Ipsos poll predicted. With nearly 95% of votes counted and no further significant changes expected, Rutte’s centre-right, liberal VVD was assured of 33 MPs, by far the largest party in the 150-seat Dutch parliament, national news agency ANP said.
Three other parties – the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), liberal-progressive D66 and Wilders’ populist PVV – were projected to gain between four and seven seats each, all finishing up with 19 MPs. Wilders’ Freedom party (PVV) looked certain to finish second, but a long way behind on 20 seats, just ahead of the Christian Democrat CDA and liberal-progressive D66 which both ended up in third position on 19 seats.
“Our message to the Netherlands – that we will hold our course, and keep this country safe, stable and prosperous, got through,” Rutte told a cheering crowd of supporters at the VVD’s election night party.“Our message to the Netherlands – that we will hold our course, and keep this country safe, stable and prosperous, got through,” Rutte told a cheering crowd of supporters at the VVD’s election night party.
The eyes of Europe had been on the vote, he added. “Many European colleagues have called me this evening: this was an evening when after Brexit and Trump, the Netherlands said ‘Stop’ to the wrong sort of populism.” After Britain’s shock Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s presidential victory in the US, he added, the eyes of the world had been on the vote: “This was an evening when … the Netherlands said ‘Stop’ to the wrong sort of populism.”
Relieved European politicians were quick to applaud the result. “Congratulations to the Netherlands for having halted the advance of the far right,” tweeted Jean-Marc Ayrault, the French foreign minister. A first-place finish for the PVV would have rocked Europe. In France, the far-right Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, is expected to make the second-round runoff in May’s presidential election, while the Eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is on target to win its first federal parliament seats later in the year.
Wilders tweeted that since the VVD had lost seats and the PVV had gained, his party was “among the winners”, adding: “If all the losers like the VVD form a government, we need to have a strong opposition of winners like the PVV.” Relieved European politicians were quick to applaud. A spokesman for European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker hailed “a vote against extremists” while French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault tweeted: “Congratulations to the Netherlands for halting the advance of the far right.”
The leftwing environmentalists of GreenLeft looked the big winners of the night, as the party was forecast to quadruple its number of MPs to 16. But the social democratic Labour party (PvdA), Rutte’s outgoing coalition partner, was forecast to slump to a historic low of nine seats from 38 in the current parliament. Wilders, who had led the polls for the better part of two years before fading badly in the weeks before polling day as he has done in past elections, said he would have preferred to have become the largest party.
The projected result would leave Rutte with a choice of coalition options, although coalition-building – with four parties likely to be needed – could take months: the average in the Netherlands is three months and the record more than 200 days. But he noted the VVD had lost 10 seats while he had gained four, and promised to offer stiff resistance. “We are not a party that has lost,” he said. “We gained seats. That’s a result to be proud of … And Rutte is certainly not rid of me yet.”
Both Wilders and Rutte had framed the vote as a barometer for nativist populism. Casting his ballot in The Hague early on Wednesday, Wilders said: “Whatever the outcome of the election today, the genie will not go back into the bottle. People feel misrepresented.” The big winners were the pro-European left-wing ecologists of GreenLeft, who leapt from four seats to 14. But the social democratic Labour party (PvdA), Rutte’s outgoing coalition partner, slumped to a historic low of nine seats from 38.
Wilders, who has pledged to “de-Islamise” the Netherlands and take it out of the EU, was widely seen as unlikely to enter government however he fared: no other main party will work with the PVV in coalition. Rutte is now set to begin the often lengthy process of building a new coalition, most likely based around the VVD, CDA and D66 – a combination that falls five MPs short of a 76-seat majority, leaving him seeking a fourth coalition partner.
The vote was being keenly watched across the continent. After the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Trump’s “America first” upset last year, and before the French presidential elections in May and the German parliamentary poll in September, a first-place finish for the PVV would have rocked Europe. Wilders, who pledged to “de-Islamise” the Netherlands and take it out of the European Union, was widely seen as unlikely to enter government however he fared since most other parties, including the VVD, had vowed not to enter a coalition with the PVV.
In France, the far-right Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, is widely forecast to make the second-round runoff, while the Eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is on target to win its first federal parliament seats later in the year. Turnout was high at 77% in an election both Rutte and Wilders cast as a test of whether the Dutch wanted to end decades of openness and centrist politics and opt instead for anti-immigration nationalism.
Informal coalition talks will begin on Thursday, although the process does not formally get under way until 23 March, when the new parliament sits for the first time. Rutte will be seeking a majority of 76 seats, probably with other mainstream parties including the CDA, PvdA and D66. “The Dutch have woken up in a ‘normal’ country, as prime minister Mark Rutte puts it,” the NRC daily wrote in its editorial “There was no populist revolt. But the paper pointed out that the big lesson was that governing does not pay.
Turnout was 82%, the highest for 30 years, the exit poll showed, with 25% of voters in Amsterdam casting their ballot by midday, nearly double the figure in the previous 2012 election. “The outgoing government presented a dream budget this year,” it said. “What should have gone up went up, what should have come down came down. The Netherlands is one of the best-performing countries in the EU. And still the outgoing coalition was punished severely. For voters, apparently, politics is about more than the economy.”
Political commentator Roderick Veelo, however, cautioned against assuming the populist far-right challenge was over. “Rutte is still standing, but so too is social discontent about uncontrolled immigration, failed integration and the power of Brussels,” he said.
“That dissatisfaction is not going away. The broad coalition that will govern this country soon must show responsibility and courage on these subjects and go to work with real solutions. Only when that happens will the populist revolt die a quiet death.”
Rutte was also thought to have benefited from his cool handling of a fierce row with Turkey over the government’s refusal to allow Turkish ministers to address rallies of Dutch Turks before a referendum next month on plans to grant Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, sweeping new powers.Rutte was also thought to have benefited from his cool handling of a fierce row with Turkey over the government’s refusal to allow Turkish ministers to address rallies of Dutch Turks before a referendum next month on plans to grant Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, sweeping new powers.
Erdoğan has reacted furiously to the Dutch decision, repeatedly accusing the government of behaving like Nazis, suspending high-level political contacts, threatening trade sanctions, and claiming the Netherlands was guilty of the massacre of 8,000 Muslim men and boys at Srebrenica in 1995. The diplomatic standoff did no harm, either, to Denk, a new party aimed mainly at the Turkish and Moroccan community, which picked up three seats. Also faring well in the record line-up of 28 parties were the Party for the Animals, with five MPs, and the Eurosceptic Forum for Democracy with two.
In a campaign dominated by Wilders’ core themes of immigration and integration, the row “allowed Rutte to show himself as a statesman – and to send a Turkish minister packing”, said André Krouwel, a political scientist at Amsterdam’s Free University. ANP said its final forecast was unlikely to be available until later on Thursday or even Friday because several large municipalities including Amsterdam, The Hague and Utrecht would not finish counting all votes until then. But it said it expected no further changes to the outcome. Official results will be published on 21 March.
In a possibly unrelated incident, two big Dutch voting information websites were targeted by a cyberattack on Wednesday. Several Twitter accounts including those of the European parliament, the German newspaper Die Welt and Amnesty International were also hacked, apparently by pro-Erdoğan activists.
Voting earlier in The Hague, Sonja van Spronsen, a 45-year-old office worker, said she hoped the next government could produce a “good, convivial Netherlands. Not just arguing and complaining but with a good positive vision of how to move forward that we can all get behind.”
Ben Baks, a 60-year-old civil servant, said he had voted GreenLeft but wanted to see a rainbow coalition combining parties from left and right. “Whatever happens, we need a country that’s governable,” he said. “We need to send out a strong signal to other European countries.”
But Donny Bonsink, a 24-year-old chef, was for Wilders. “Islamisation in the Netherlands has to stop,” he said. “We’ve had governments trying to make immigration work for 40 years and all it’s brought us is problems. People are angry.”