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Dutch election: voters go to the polls in the Netherlands – live Dutch election: voters go to the polls in the Netherlands – live
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Will polls fare any better in this election than in recent votes in the UK and the US?
For what it’s worth here are the most recent polling predictions from the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University. They show the centrist People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) slightly in the lead.
Latest seat projections (9 March) for the Dutch elections from @tomlouwerse - VVD narrowly ahead https://t.co/vjDdP2GuBr pic.twitter.com/x5gWhhXuGP
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Nonetheless, the extent of Geert Wilders’s popularity will be seen as a barometer of both populist and anti-immigration sentiment in Europe.
Here is a profile of the agitator-in-chief from Gordon Darroch:
The queue to vote at the Binnenhof in The Hague at around midday. #verkiezingsdag pic.twitter.com/vqKgjmCEZh
Geert Wilders founded his Party for Freedom (PVV) in 2006 with a declaration of independence from the “elite in The Hague”, and from the outset has espoused anti-Muslim rhetoric, promising to enshrine the “dominance of the Judeo-Christian tradition” in the Dutch constitution.
As the country prepares to vote in national elections on 15 March, opinion polls have at times suggested that Wilders’ party could emerge as the country’s largest, despite recent slips. The strength of the anti-Islam, anti-EU populist PVV is reverberating around the country.
He is thought unlikely to enter government but in his decade agitating in Dutch politics, Wilders’s influence has changed the tone of debate in the country. He draws predictable comparisons with Donald Trump, but the similarities are mainly in style: a taste for sharp suits, incandescent hair dye and inflammatory tweets.
While Trump rode into Washington as an outsider, Wilders has spent 19 years in parliament and is fighting his fourth election as party leader.
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This piece about what the Dutch election is – and is not – about is also excellent, and explains why the Dutch are not “doing a Brexit”, or indeed “a Trump”, this evening.
Today are Dutch elections. This is quick primer to explain what they are and are not about. #TK17 #DutchElections https://t.co/B8NK0yQmOh
This is a key point from Cas Mudde:
3 The Dutch are not electing a president
International media style the Dutch elections as a “neck-and-neck race” between conservative prime minister Mark Rutte of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and radical-right challenger Wilders, to fit the broader frame of status quo versus populism.
[...]
But however convenient it is for selling newspapers or for Rutte, this formula is inconsistent with the essence of the elections. The Dutch are electing a parliament, not a president or premier, and it is not guaranteed that the leader of the biggest party will be the premier.
In a parliamentary system the government needs the support of the parliamentary majority, not necessarily of the biggest party. Moreover, the struggle between Rutte and Wilders captures only a minority of the voters: together the VVD and PVV are only polling between 30 and 35%. In other words, the real story is somewhere else.
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This is a fascinating vote, which has garnered an unprecedented amount of interest in the Dutch political system.This is a fascinating vote, which has garnered an unprecedented amount of interest in the Dutch political system.
Whether you are coming to it fresh, or are a seasoned Netherlands’ politico, we have a comprehensive range of stories explaining the significance of today’s election.Whether you are coming to it fresh, or are a seasoned Netherlands’ politico, we have a comprehensive range of stories explaining the significance of today’s election.
A great starting place is this thorough preview from the inimitable Jon Henley, who is on the ground in The Hague.A great starting place is this thorough preview from the inimitable Jon Henley, who is on the ground in The Hague.
Queue to vote this morning at polling station in the Binnenhof - Dutch parliament pic.twitter.com/g04Bpcy705Queue to vote this morning at polling station in the Binnenhof - Dutch parliament pic.twitter.com/g04Bpcy705
What’s the political landscape and how does the system work?What’s the political landscape and how does the system work?
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected by proportional representation in a single, nationwide constituency – which means that any party that wins 0.67% of the national vote is assured of a seat (key facts about the Dutch electoral system here).Parliament is elected by proportional representation in a single, nationwide constituency – which means that any party that wins 0.67% of the national vote is assured of a seat (key facts about the Dutch electoral system here).
Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the three main parties of government from the centre-right and left. Their share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to a projected 40% this year.Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the three main parties of government from the centre-right and left. Their share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to a projected 40% this year.
This is a trend visible across Europe; see more about it here. In the Netherlands, it has been paralleled by a proliferation of smaller special interest parties: no fewer than 28 of them, many new, are contesting this election. As many as 14 are forecast to win seats, including eight with 10 or more MPs.This is a trend visible across Europe; see more about it here. In the Netherlands, it has been paralleled by a proliferation of smaller special interest parties: no fewer than 28 of them, many new, are contesting this election. As many as 14 are forecast to win seats, including eight with 10 or more MPs.
It is this fragmentation of the vote, rather than a big increase in support, that could see the PVV become the largest party. The movements that produced Brexit and Trump won about half the vote; Wilders’ is forecast to get below 20% (more from the Peilingwijzer poll aggregator here).It is this fragmentation of the vote, rather than a big increase in support, that could see the PVV become the largest party. The movements that produced Brexit and Trump won about half the vote; Wilders’ is forecast to get below 20% (more from the Peilingwijzer poll aggregator here).
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Welcome to the Guardian’s live blog of the 2017 Dutch elections – we’ll be covering developments throughout the night and into tomorrow, bringing you live news from the Netherlands as it happens.Welcome to the Guardian’s live blog of the 2017 Dutch elections – we’ll be covering developments throughout the night and into tomorrow, bringing you live news from the Netherlands as it happens.
With voters racing to polling stations before they close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), all eyes are on the small European nation as the world waits to see if another populist insurgent can cause further political upset in Europe, or if the rising tide of populism can be stemmed.With voters racing to polling stations before they close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), all eyes are on the small European nation as the world waits to see if another populist insurgent can cause further political upset in Europe, or if the rising tide of populism can be stemmed.
Early indications show that the turnout in 2017 is higher than the last election in 2012. According to local media reports 43% of voters went to the polls by 2.45pm GMT compared with 37% in 2012.Early indications show that the turnout in 2017 is higher than the last election in 2012. According to local media reports 43% of voters went to the polls by 2.45pm GMT compared with 37% in 2012.
Why do we care about this election?Why do we care about this election?
It’s the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are hoping to match the success of Britain’s leave campaign and the victory of Donald Trump in the United States. France will go to the polls to elect a new president next month, while a general election in Germany is due in September.It’s the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are hoping to match the success of Britain’s leave campaign and the victory of Donald Trump in the United States. France will go to the polls to elect a new president next month, while a general election in Germany is due in September.
The conservative prime minister, Mark Rutte, leader of the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is up against the far-right, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV).The conservative prime minister, Mark Rutte, leader of the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is up against the far-right, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV).
Wilders has called for - among other things - the closing of mosques and Islamic schools, banning sales of the Qur’an and barring Muslim migrants. Rutte has said the election is an opportunity for voters to “beat the wrong sort of populism”.Wilders has called for - among other things - the closing of mosques and Islamic schools, banning sales of the Qur’an and barring Muslim migrants. Rutte has said the election is an opportunity for voters to “beat the wrong sort of populism”.
The VVD leads the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University, on 17% - which could equate to about 24-28 seats - while Wilders’ party is close behind on 14%, about 12-23. After recent elections, however, polls increasingly come with a fairly hefty health warning.The VVD leads the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University, on 17% - which could equate to about 24-28 seats - while Wilders’ party is close behind on 14%, about 12-23. After recent elections, however, polls increasingly come with a fairly hefty health warning.
Even if the PVV emerge as the country’s largest party, it’s unlikely Wilders will enter government. The other mainstream parties have already made it pretty clear they will not enter into a coalition with him.Even if the PVV emerge as the country’s largest party, it’s unlikely Wilders will enter government. The other mainstream parties have already made it pretty clear they will not enter into a coalition with him.
However, after shock results in the UK and the US, a strong showing for Wilders would further spook the Netherlands’ European neighbours and send further shockwaves across the continent.However, after shock results in the UK and the US, a strong showing for Wilders would further spook the Netherlands’ European neighbours and send further shockwaves across the continent.
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