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Dutch election: Mark Rutte's VVD party leads in main exit poll – live Dutch election: Mark Rutte's VVD party leads in main exit poll – live
(35 minutes later)
10.39pm GMT
22:39
GreenLeft leader hailed as the "Jessiah"
Jon Henley
Jon Henley has this piece from the night on the surprise gains for the GreenLeft.
The big winner of Wednesday’s Dutch election – and now the largest party of the left for the first time – was GreenLeft, headed by 30-year-old Jesse Klaver, hailed by his enthusiastic supporters as the “Jessiah”.
According to a generally reliable Ipsos exit poll, the party, formed 25 years ago by a merger of communists, pacifists, evangelicals and self-styled radicals, quadrupled its MPs from four to 16 after a storming campaign by Klaver.
“This is a fantastic result for us, a historic victory,” said the GreenLeft chairwoman, Marjolein Meijer. The result showed there was “very fertile ground in the Netherlands for change and a positive and hopeful story,” she said. “For us this is just the start.”
The party celebrated its historic advance with a tweet showing a gif of Kermit the Frog dancing for joy.
10.36pm GMT
22:36
Reports: PVV wins in Rotterdam
Dutch TV station RTV Rijnmond is reporting that PVV are the largest party Rotterdam, the Netherlands’ second biggest city.
PVV is grootste in Rotterdam https://t.co/Cw1SCymEjx
Geert Wilders has tweeted in response:
Rotterdam voor de PVV! https://t.co/MTdwQbzCxl
10.31pm GMT
22:31
Mark Rutte: "The Netherlands has said enough to the wrong kind of populism"
#rutte : What a night! I predicted this! We are biggest third time in a row! #dutchelections pic.twitter.com/J8TQmfeCU2
Mark Rutte has spoken following the exit polls which put his party in poll position.
Here’s a loose translation of his speech:
It seems like for third time in a row the VVD is the Netherlands biggest party.
Our message to the Netherlands - that we will hold our course, and keep this country safe and stable - got though.
I have had lots of Europen colleagues on the line. This is an evening where the Netherlands, after Brexit and Trump, said “That’s enough of the wrong sort of populism.”
He called the high turnout “a festival of democracy”.
Rutte: 'It was a festival of democracy with queues outside polling stations. We haven't seen that for a long time.'
We also discovered his favourite song is Bruno Mars’ “Uptown Funk”, which is my take home fact of the night.
Mark Rutte makes his entrance to Bruno Mars 'Uptown Funk' - apparently his favourite record.
10.00pm GMT10.00pm GMT
22:0022:00
Exit poll: Green parties increase representationExit poll: Green parties increase representation
The best news of the Dutch elections: the parties that take climate change seriously double their number of seats. From 15% to 31%.The best news of the Dutch elections: the parties that take climate change seriously double their number of seats. From 15% to 31%.
Author Rutger Bregman has pointed out that parties that are concerned with environmental issues doubled their number of seats from 15% to 31%.Author Rutger Bregman has pointed out that parties that are concerned with environmental issues doubled their number of seats from 15% to 31%.
Animal Rights Party leader Thieme points out that parties with green-focused programmes have doubled their representation. https://t.co/9VDNfifpy2Animal Rights Party leader Thieme points out that parties with green-focused programmes have doubled their representation. https://t.co/9VDNfifpy2
9.49pm GMT9.49pm GMT
21:4921:49
Mark Rutte’s VVD party leading first Dutch election exit poll – video reportMark Rutte’s VVD party leading first Dutch election exit poll – video report
9.42pm GMT9.42pm GMT
21:4221:42
GreenLeft hail "great results"GreenLeft hail "great results"
Kathalijne Buitenweg, de nummer 2 van GroenLinks, is blij: "Wij zetten in op een zo progressief mogelijke coalitie." https://t.co/zFzGcybhCj pic.twitter.com/rGVau9exoLKathalijne Buitenweg, de nummer 2 van GroenLinks, is blij: "Wij zetten in op een zo progressief mogelijke coalitie." https://t.co/zFzGcybhCj pic.twitter.com/rGVau9exoL
Kathalijne Buitenweg, the chair of GreenLeft delegation in European Parliament has commented on the party’s gains.Kathalijne Buitenweg, the chair of GreenLeft delegation in European Parliament has commented on the party’s gains.
We’ve never had such great results - we quadrupled our seats - and I am incredibly proud of the party and all the people who voted and campaigned.We’ve never had such great results - we quadrupled our seats - and I am incredibly proud of the party and all the people who voted and campaigned.
It’s clear people have had enough of the current climate of polarisation, and want a message of positivity and I am proud of that.It’s clear people have had enough of the current climate of polarisation, and want a message of positivity and I am proud of that.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.43pm GMTat 9.43pm GMT
9.40pm GMT9.40pm GMT
21:4021:40
Socialist Party reacts to exit pollSocialist Party reacts to exit poll
Journalist Gordon Darroch has been reporting on the reaction of Socialist Party leader Emile Roemer, who lost one seat. As Darroch puts it: “Roemer doesn’t sound like a man who plans on stepping down in the morning.”Journalist Gordon Darroch has been reporting on the reaction of Socialist Party leader Emile Roemer, who lost one seat. As Darroch puts it: “Roemer doesn’t sound like a man who plans on stepping down in the morning.”
Socialist leader Emile Roemer: 'Did I hope for more? Yes. Am I proud of us? Yes.' SP lost 1 seat.Socialist leader Emile Roemer: 'Did I hope for more? Yes. Am I proud of us? Yes.' SP lost 1 seat.
Roemer: 'These are very unstable times and we can be proud of being a stable party.'Roemer: 'These are very unstable times and we can be proud of being a stable party.'
Roemer: 'This isn't over. We don't have a government yet, not by a long way.'Roemer: 'This isn't over. We don't have a government yet, not by a long way.'
Roemer: 'This isn't over. We don't have a government yet, not by a long way.'Roemer: 'This isn't over. We don't have a government yet, not by a long way.'
Roemer: 'If there is one thing we need to keep doing for years, it's keep fighting against the tide, because so many people need us.'Roemer: 'If there is one thing we need to keep doing for years, it's keep fighting against the tide, because so many people need us.'
Roemer: 'Stay true to what you said before the election: we will not help the right achieve a majority.'Roemer: 'Stay true to what you said before the election: we will not help the right achieve a majority.'
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.44pm GMTat 9.44pm GMT
9.35pm GMT9.35pm GMT
21:3521:35
Prize for gif of the nightPrize for gif of the night
And the prize for best reaction to tonight’s exit poll from the Dutch election surely come from left wing insurgents GreenLeft. They posted this pretty excellent gif of of Kermit the Frog when the provisional results came through.And the prize for best reaction to tonight’s exit poll from the Dutch election surely come from left wing insurgents GreenLeft. They posted this pretty excellent gif of of Kermit the Frog when the provisional results came through.
#tk2017 pic.twitter.com/Vo6oVKjBI1#tk2017 pic.twitter.com/Vo6oVKjBI1
Jon Henley points out that the leftwing environmentalists were set to be the big winners of the night, quadrupling their number of MPs to 16Jon Henley points out that the leftwing environmentalists were set to be the big winners of the night, quadrupling their number of MPs to 16
Prime minister Mark Rutte and his liberal VVD party appear to have comfortably beaten the populist, anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders to become the largest in the new Dutch parliament, an early exit poll suggested.Prime minister Mark Rutte and his liberal VVD party appear to have comfortably beaten the populist, anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders to become the largest in the new Dutch parliament, an early exit poll suggested.
In the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are seeking electoral breakthroughs, the VVD lost ten seats but was still on course for 31 seats in the 150-seat parliament, the Ipsos poll for Dutch broadcasters predicted.In the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are seeking electoral breakthroughs, the VVD lost ten seats but was still on course for 31 seats in the 150-seat parliament, the Ipsos poll for Dutch broadcasters predicted.
Three other parties – the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), liberal-progressive D66 and Wilders’ PVV – were forecast to gain between four and seven seats each, all finishing with 19 MPs each.Three other parties – the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), liberal-progressive D66 and Wilders’ PVV – were forecast to gain between four and seven seats each, all finishing with 19 MPs each.
The leftwing environmentalists of GreenLeft were set to be the big winners of the night, quadrupling their number of MPs to 16, the poll suggested, but the social democratic PvdA, Rutte’s outgoing coalition partners, appeared to have slumped to a historic low of nine seats from 38 in the current parliament.The leftwing environmentalists of GreenLeft were set to be the big winners of the night, quadrupling their number of MPs to 16, the poll suggested, but the social democratic PvdA, Rutte’s outgoing coalition partners, appeared to have slumped to a historic low of nine seats from 38 in the current parliament.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.45pm GMTat 9.45pm GMT
9.27pm GMT9.27pm GMT
21:2721:27
Labour leader reacts to exit pollLabour leader reacts to exit poll
Labour leader Lodewijk Asscher has called the party’s apparent decimation a “bitter evening’ and congratulated Jesse Klaver of Green Left. He says the party lead the country out of a economic crisis, but it had failed to convince supporters to vote for the party again.Labour leader Lodewijk Asscher has called the party’s apparent decimation a “bitter evening’ and congratulated Jesse Klaver of Green Left. He says the party lead the country out of a economic crisis, but it had failed to convince supporters to vote for the party again.
Asscher: 'I congratulate the VVD who have become the largest party despite losing seats. Also the other winners: GroenLinks, D66 & CDA.'Asscher: 'I congratulate the VVD who have become the largest party despite losing seats. Also the other winners: GroenLinks, D66 & CDA.'
Asscher: 'Our party, together with the VVD, has led the country out of the economic crisis in a respectable and fair way'.Asscher: 'Our party, together with the VVD, has led the country out of the economic crisis in a respectable and fair way'.
Asscher: 'The country is evidently better off than in 2012, but we haven't managed to convince our voters to support us again.'Asscher: 'The country is evidently better off than in 2012, but we haven't managed to convince our voters to support us again.'
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.44pm GMTat 9.44pm GMT
9.21pm GMT9.21pm GMT
21:2121:21
Carmen FishwickCarmen Fishwick
Carmen Fishwick asked Dutch voters why some people in the country, which is renowned for its liberal and tolerant culture, are drawn to Wilders’ party.Carmen Fishwick asked Dutch voters why some people in the country, which is renowned for its liberal and tolerant culture, are drawn to Wilders’ party.
People need anything that shows that the government caresPeople need anything that shows that the government cares
Other political parties don’t offer any answer for the fears or problems that many Dutch feel they are facing. I personally don’t believe these problems are as big as perceived by many others. But then again, I have the luxury of being at a distance.Other political parties don’t offer any answer for the fears or problems that many Dutch feel they are facing. I personally don’t believe these problems are as big as perceived by many others. But then again, I have the luxury of being at a distance.
If other parties would offer, for example, an approach against groups of youths showing disrespectful behaviour, they could lure away a lot of PVV voters. It’s not that hard: more money for 24/7 police surveillance and social work, for example. People need anything that shows that the government cares.If other parties would offer, for example, an approach against groups of youths showing disrespectful behaviour, they could lure away a lot of PVV voters. It’s not that hard: more money for 24/7 police surveillance and social work, for example. People need anything that shows that the government cares.
– Lisa, 43, project manager living in Amsterdam– Lisa, 43, project manager living in Amsterdam
If you are far-right, you only have one real optionIf you are far-right, you only have one real option
Geert Wilders is the only major party willing to quit the EU and ban Islam. If you are far-right, you only have one real option.Geert Wilders is the only major party willing to quit the EU and ban Islam. If you are far-right, you only have one real option.
Many people feel like they have lost something due to neoliberal policies, as well as the country being more ethnically and culturally diverse. Not everything has been perfect with the assimilation of groups perceived as migrants even though the majority are well-functioning and hard-working.Many people feel like they have lost something due to neoliberal policies, as well as the country being more ethnically and culturally diverse. Not everything has been perfect with the assimilation of groups perceived as migrants even though the majority are well-functioning and hard-working.
For many it’s not that its bad at this very moment, it’s the feeling that if it goes on there will be enormous problems. Wilders is a walking middle finger, an outcry of despair.For many it’s not that its bad at this very moment, it’s the feeling that if it goes on there will be enormous problems. Wilders is a walking middle finger, an outcry of despair.
– Imre Rossel, 19, Gouda– Imre Rossel, 19, Gouda
Supporters say that if you’re against Wilders you’re pro-IslamSupporters say that if you’re against Wilders you’re pro-Islam
I know a lot of people who will vote for him. They’re afraid of the Islam and refugees who take their money, supposedly.I know a lot of people who will vote for him. They’re afraid of the Islam and refugees who take their money, supposedly.
People say that if you’re against Wilders you’re pro-Islam or something. But I don’t think he will be the biggest party because many people are going to vote for the Christian Democrats. Their leader said some really nationalistic things and profiles himself really as a right-wing party.People say that if you’re against Wilders you’re pro-Islam or something. But I don’t think he will be the biggest party because many people are going to vote for the Christian Democrats. Their leader said some really nationalistic things and profiles himself really as a right-wing party.
– Rens Verhaegh, 22, Nijmegen– Rens Verhaegh, 22, Nijmegen
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.25pm GMTat 9.25pm GMT
9.18pm GMT9.18pm GMT
21:1821:18
Diplomatic row with Turkey a boon to Rutte?Diplomatic row with Turkey a boon to Rutte?
IPSOS confirms what I heard at polls: 34% #VVD voters say #Turkey crisis played a role. But 81% chose #Rutte for economy #DutchElectionIPSOS confirms what I heard at polls: 34% #VVD voters say #Turkey crisis played a role. But 81% chose #Rutte for economy #DutchElection
Polling suggests that the high-profile spat between the Netherlands and Turkey - which saw Turkish ministers prevented from addressing rallies of Dutch Turks ahead of a referendum on granting Turkey’s president sweeping new powers - may have helped incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte.Polling suggests that the high-profile spat between the Netherlands and Turkey - which saw Turkish ministers prevented from addressing rallies of Dutch Turks ahead of a referendum on granting Turkey’s president sweeping new powers - may have helped incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Of those polled who said they voted VVD 34% said the Turkey crisis had played a role. Perhaps more importantly, 81% chose Rutte for his handling of the economy. (See “What are the issues” in this piece. )Of those polled who said they voted VVD 34% said the Turkey crisis had played a role. Perhaps more importantly, 81% chose Rutte for his handling of the economy. (See “What are the issues” in this piece. )
This from Jon Henley and Gordon Darroch piece:This from Jon Henley and Gordon Darroch piece:
In a campaign dominated by Wilders’ core themes of immigration and integration, the row has “allowed Rutte to show himself as a statesman – and to send a Turkish minister packing”, said André Krouwel, a political scientist at Amsterdam’s Free UniversityIn a campaign dominated by Wilders’ core themes of immigration and integration, the row has “allowed Rutte to show himself as a statesman – and to send a Turkish minister packing”, said André Krouwel, a political scientist at Amsterdam’s Free University
“What better publicity could a politician want a few days before an election?” Klouwer said. “Rutte was able to show he could actually expel Turks, and to tell Wilders: ‘You’re just sitting there, tweeting’ … This has won Rutte the election.”“What better publicity could a politician want a few days before an election?” Klouwer said. “Rutte was able to show he could actually expel Turks, and to tell Wilders: ‘You’re just sitting there, tweeting’ … This has won Rutte the election.”
9.04pm GMT
21:04
A playful jibe at the unprecedented global interest in the 2017 Dutch election:
Drone images from international journalists running to Schiphol airport. #TK17 🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/0GGvInb1VM
9.01pm GMT
21:01
Geert Wilders reacts to exit poll
Geert Wilders has thanked PVV voters following the exit poll, which appears to show that while his party gained seats it will fall far short of the 30 seats that polls were predicting he could gain at the start of the year.
A (loose) translation:
We have won seats! That’s the first victory! I’m not done with Rutte yet!
PVV-stemmers bedankt!We hebben zetels gewonnen!Eerste winst is binnen!En Rutte is nog lang niet van mij af!!
But according to journalist Robert Chesal, the PVV is the only political party not holding a post-election gathering.
Geert Wilders' PVV is the only party not holding a post-election gathering. Quiet as a mouse in their wing of the building. #DutchElection
8.50pm GMT
20:50
High turnout
Netherlands: Highest turnout since 31 years: 82% (Ipsos exit poll). #TK17 #ExitPoll #DutchElection
Whichever politicians the Dutch have chosen today, they have turned out in large numbers to vote.
The elections saw the highest turnout in the past 31 years, with 82% of people going out to vote, according to Ipsos.
Updated
at 9.05pm GMT
8.40pm GMT
20:40
Historic loss for the Labour party
Historic loss for the Labour party in the #DutchElection. Drop of 29 seats, from 38 to 9. But big win for new voice of the left #GroenLinks
Dutch media outlet NOS is reporting that the exit poll could mean that the Labour party, one of the country’s largest has lost a record number of seats.
The numbers would see the PvdA, which was in a coalition government with the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), go from 38 seats to nine seats. That’s an unprecedented loss in Dutch politics. The leftwing party performed worse than it did in the 2002 election, in which it went from 45 seats to 23.
Updated
at 8.53pm GMT
8.34pm GMT
20:34
Exit poll results
Some analysis of what those results would mean, if the main exit poll is accurate:
Rutte’s centre-right VVD Party looks set to win 31 out of 150 seats.
That is significantly ahead of the next three parties -Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV), the Christian Democrat Party and the liberal party. Each of these are set to get 19 seats, according to the exit poll.
The Labour party (PvdA) appears to be the biggest losers of the night, and could lose as many as 29 seats. The biggest winner appears to be Green Left, the left-wing Green party which looks to have gained 12 seats.
Right bloc PVV-VVD-CDA stable at 69 seatsLeft bloc PvdA-GL-SP lose 18 seatsBiggest loser: PvdA (-29 seats)Biggest winner: GL (+12 seats)
I can't escape the impression that this is going to be a hellishly difficult coalition to cobble together #DutchElections
Updated
at 8.58pm GMT
8.23pm GMT
20:23
Impact on a future coalition
So what does this mean for a future Dutch coalition? Journalist Naomi O’Leary says there is no clear coalition of the right, while the left have been left in disarray.
No clear right-wing coalition to be formed here; the left is also completely splintered. Four party coalition at least #DutchElection #tk17
Former leader of the social liberal Democrats 66 (D66) Lousewies van der Laan argues that if this exit poll is accurate Rutte can remain as Prime Minister.
This means 1. Rutte remains Prime Minister 2. 4 party coalition w/out Wilders 3. VVD can play all parties against each other #DutchElection pic.twitter.com/OrZPgHEtUg
Party of PM #Rutte #VVD loses 10 seats, but still largest & can start form coalition #DutchElection #TK2017
Updated
at 8.47pm GMT
8.15pm GMT
20:15
Exit poll: disappointing night for Geert Wilders PVV
If this exit poll is accurate this shows a disappointing night for Wilders’ PVV; it’s also a devastating night for the Labour party, who are heading for a record low.
Netherlands: Collapse of #Labour party PvdA (S&D) to record low, Wilders' far-right PVV comes 2rd, 3th or 4th. #DutchElection #TK17 #PvdA pic.twitter.com/YXKsKO1Uf8
Updated
at 8.47pm GMT
8.10pm GMT
20:10
Exit polls
The first exit polls are in for the Dutch elections. They show Rutte’s VVD party on 31 seats, while Geert Wilders’s PVV is on 19, the same as the CDA and D66.
Obviously all exit polls have to be approached with a health warning, but if these are accurate it appears that the centrist VVD will emerge as the largest party.
Exit poll shows Rutte's VVD first on 31 seats, Geert Wilders on 19, equal to CDA and D66 https://t.co/JiwQ5KeXKY #DutchElection
Netherlands, Wilders' party PVV (ENF) results:2006: 5.9%2010: 15.4%2012: 10.1%2017: 12.6%**Ipsos exit poll#Wilders #Netherlands
Wow. Exit Polls: VVD 31, PVV/CDA/D66 19, GL 16, SP 14, PvdA 9. Premierbonus paying out #DutchElection https://t.co/SOSTWzk02S
Updated
at 9.08pm GMT
8.05pm GMT
20:05
A (smallish) range of Dutch political parties
My colleague Hanna Yusuf, a Dutch speaker who spent part of her childhood in the Netherlands, has produced this handy guide to some of the bigger political parties:
People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)Political position: centre-right partyLeader: Mark Rutte (current PM)Notes: currently in power in a coalition government with the PvdAThe Labour Party (PvdA)Political position: centre-leftLeader: Lodewijk AscherNotes: currently in office in a coalition government with the VVDParty for Freedom (PVV)Political position: right-wing to far-rightLeader: Geert WildersChristian Democratic Appeal (CDA)Political position: centre to centre-rightLeader: Sybrand van Haersma BumaThe Green Party (GroenLinks)Position: centre-leftLeader: Jesse KlaverDemocrats 66 (D66)Position: Centre (economic: centre-right, social: centre-left)Leader: Alexander PechtoldSocialist Party (SP)Position: Left-wingLeader: Emile RoemerChristian Union (CU)Position: centre to centre-rightLeader: Gert-Jan Segers50 Plus (50+)Position: centreLeader: Henk KrolParty for the Animals (PvdD)Position: left-wingLeader: Marianne ThiemeReformed Political Party (SGP)Position: right-wingLeader: Kees van der Staaij
Updated
at 9.15pm GMT
7.58pm GMT
19:58
Media analysis
Loth as I am to big up other media organisations’ coverage of the Dutch elections, if you finish reading everything the Guardian has to offer (I doubt this will happen, but just in case), here are a few bits that are worth a read/listen.
Simon Kuper, of the Financial Times, who grew up in the Netherlands, writes that Wilders “doesn’t worry the Dutch”.
Wilders’ views on asylum seekers, immigration and the EU influence the national debate. But polls show that the biggest issue for voters is “zorg” — which means both healthcare and eldercare. People are also worried about public rudeness and misbehaviour. Long technocratic TV debates on these topics draw big audiences.
All this is deeply tedious for foreigners. Even if Wilders finishes first on March 15, expect months of boring coalition talks, culminating in a government without Wilders. Then foreigners can forget about Dutch politics for another decade.
He also wrote a rather lovely piece from the Netherlands’ poorest village.
Ahead of tomorrow's Dutch elections, here again is my @FT visit to the Netherlands' poorest village - a v nice place https://t.co/bCnToD25SM
There is also a really interesting Radio 4 documentary in which journalist Tim Whewell asks, “Why is liberal, tolerant Netherlands home to one of Europe’s most successful anti-immigration, anti-Islamic parties?”
Wonderful, wonderful listen https://t.co/SnxXoyNpdu join @BBCTimWhewell on his mission to find the legendary Dutch couple 📻
Here’s the blurb:
Unlike some far-right parties elsewhere in Europe, the PVV has no neo-Nazi roots. It’s loud in its support for gay and women’s rights. It promotes itself as a strong defender of Holland’s Jewish community. Is its ideology just an opportunistic mishmash? Or does it make some sense in a Dutch context? Searching for Henk and Ingrid, Tim Whewell sets off through Dutch “flyover country” - the totally un-photogenic satellite towns and modern villages that tourists, and Holland’s own elite, rarely see.
He asks if the PVV’s platform is just thinly disguised racism. Or has it raised important questions about immigration and multiculturalism that other European countries, including the UK, have been scared to ask?
Updated
at 8.03pm GMT