This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/mar/15/dutch-election-voters-go-to-the-polls-in-the-netherlands-live

The article has changed 30 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 2 Version 3
Dutch election: voters go to the polls in the Netherlands – live Dutch election: Mark Rutte's VVD party leads in main exit poll – live
(35 minutes later)
8.15pm GMT
20:15
If this exit poll is accurate this shows a disappointing night for Wilders’ PVV; it’s also a devastating night for the Labour party who recorded a record low.
Netherlands: Collapse of #Labour party PvdA (S&D) to record low, Wilders' far-right PVV comes 2rd, 3th or 4th. #DutchElection #TK17 #PvdA pic.twitter.com/YXKsKO1Uf8
8.10pm GMT
20:10
Exit polls
The first exit polls are in for the Netherlands elections. They show Rutte’s VVD party on 31 seats, while Geert Wilders PVV is on 19, the same as the CDA and D66.
Obviously all exit polls have to be approached with a health warning, but it these are accurate it appears that the centrist VVD will emerge as the largest party.
Exit poll shows Rutte's VVD first on 31 seats, Geert Wilders on 19, equal to CDA and D66 https://t.co/JiwQ5KeXKY #DutchElection
Netherlands, Wilders' party PVV (ENF) results:2006: 5.9%2010: 15.4%2012: 10.1%2017: 12.6%**Ipsos exit poll#Wilders #Netherlands
Wow. Exit Polls: VVD 31, PVV/CDA/D66 19, GL 16, SP 14, PvdA 9. Premierbonus paying out #DutchElection https://t.co/SOSTWzk02S
8.05pm GMT
20:05
A (smallish) range of Dutch political parties
My colleague Hanna Yusuf, a Dutch speaker who spent part of her childhood in the Netherlands has produced this handy guide to some of the bigger political parties:
People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)Political position: centre-right partyLeader: Mark Rutte (current PM)Notes: currently in power in a coalition government with the PvdAThe Labour Party (PvdA)Political position: centre-leftLeader: Lodewijk AscherNotes: currently in office in a coalition government with the VVDParty for Freedom (PVV)Political position: right-wing to far-rightLeader: Geert WildersChristian Democratic Appeal (CDA)Political position: centre to centre-rightLeader: Sybrand van Haersma BumaThe Green Party (GroenLinks)Position: centre-leftLeader: Jesse KlaverDemocrats 66 (D66)Position: Centre (economic: centre-right, social: centre-left)Leader: Alexander PechtoldSocialist Party (SP)Position: Left-wingLeader: Emile RoemerChristian Union (CU)Position: centre to centre-rightLeader: Gert-Jan Segers50 Plus (50+)Position: centreLeader: Henk KrolParty for the Animals (PvdD)Position: left-wingLeader: Marianne ThiemeReformed Political Party (SGP)Position: right-wingLeader: Kees van der Staaij
Updated
at 8.07pm GMT
7.58pm GMT
19:58
Media analysis
Loth as I am to big up other media organisations’ coverage of the Dutch elections, if you finish reading everything the Guardian has to offer (I doubt this will happen, but just in case), here are a few bits that are worth a read/listen.
Simon Kuper, of the Financial Times, who grew up in the Netherlands, writes that Wilders “doesn’t worry the Dutch”.
Wilders’ views on asylum seekers, immigration and the EU influence the national debate. But polls show that the biggest issue for voters is “zorg” — which means both healthcare and eldercare. People are also worried about public rudeness and misbehaviour. Long technocratic TV debates on these topics draw big audiences.
All this is deeply tedious for foreigners. Even if Wilders finishes first on March 15, expect months of boring coalition talks, culminating in a government without Wilders. Then foreigners can forget about Dutch politics for another decade.
He also wrote a rather lovely piece from the Netherlands’ poorest village.
Ahead of tomorrow's Dutch elections, here again is my @FT visit to the Netherlands' poorest village - a v nice place https://t.co/bCnToD25SM
There is also a really interesting Radio 4 documentary in which journalist Tim Whewell asks, “Why is liberal, tolerant Netherlands home to one of Europe’s most successful anti-immigration, anti-Islamic parties?”
Wonderful, wonderful listen https://t.co/SnxXoyNpdu join @BBCTimWhewell on his mission to find the legendary Dutch couple 📻
Here’s the blurb:
Unlike some far-right parties elsewhere in Europe, the PVV has no neo-Nazi roots. It’s loud in its support for gay and women’s rights. It promotes itself as a strong defender of Holland’s Jewish community. Is its ideology just an opportunistic mishmash? Or does it make some sense in a Dutch context? Searching for Henk and Ingrid, Tim Whewell sets off through Dutch “flyover country” - the totally un-photogenic satellite towns and modern villages that tourists, and Holland’s own elite, rarely see.
He asks if the PVV’s platform is just thinly disguised racism. Or has it raised important questions about immigration and multiculturalism that other European countries, including the UK, have been scared to ask?
Updated
at 8.03pm GMT
7.43pm GMT7.43pm GMT
19:4319:43
Exit pollsExit polls
Polls are set to close in about twenty minutes at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), and we’ll get the first exit poll soon after. According to Mudde “Traditionally exit polls have been pretty accurate in the Netherlands.” Polls are set to close in about twenty minutes at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), and we’ll get the first exit poll soon after. According to Mudde: “Traditionally, exit polls have been pretty accurate in the Netherlands.”
At 9 PM local time Dutch media will publish first exit poll. Traditionally exit polls have been pretty accurate in the Netherlands. #TK17 🇳🇱At 9 PM local time Dutch media will publish first exit poll. Traditionally exit polls have been pretty accurate in the Netherlands. #TK17 🇳🇱
Updated
at 7.50pm GMT
7.35pm GMT7.35pm GMT
19:3519:35
High turnoutHigh turnout
Turnout so far looks to be up to 73%, up from 65% in 2012 and just shy of the 75% who turned out in 2006.Turnout so far looks to be up to 73%, up from 65% in 2012 and just shy of the 75% who turned out in 2006.
Turnout in The Hague nearly 72% with an hour to go. https://t.co/kmTnwotXIFTurnout in The Hague nearly 72% with an hour to go. https://t.co/kmTnwotXIF
Netherlands: Turnout, 19:15 CET | Ipsos exit poll2006: 75%2012: 65%2017: 73%#DutchElections #gestemdNetherlands: Turnout, 19:15 CET | Ipsos exit poll2006: 75%2012: 65%2017: 73%#DutchElections #gestemd
Whether this will help or hinder Wilders appears to be up for debate:Whether this will help or hinder Wilders appears to be up for debate:
Turnout in Dutch elex is high. Good for Wilders. But: there's only so much higher it can go; it was 72% last time. https://t.co/4baxgOQhRSTurnout in Dutch elex is high. Good for Wilders. But: there's only so much higher it can go; it was 72% last time. https://t.co/4baxgOQhRS
Extrapolating from Brexit/Trump where "working class" whites turned out in high numbers. But, of course, PVV has been around for years. https://t.co/gsrSxCG4lEExtrapolating from Brexit/Trump where "working class" whites turned out in high numbers. But, of course, PVV has been around for years. https://t.co/gsrSxCG4lE
But our man in the Hague Jon Henley points out that most analysts believe a high turnout will benefit the left and centre parties. A high turnout in big cities like Ametrdam, is “particularly bad news for Wilders”, he says. But our man in The Hague, Jon Henley, points out that most analysts believe a high turnout will benefit the left and centre parties. A high turnout in big cities such as Amsterdam is “particularly bad news for Wilders”, he says.
Very high turnout in #DutchElections : 73% an hour before polls close. Most analysts think will benefit left and centre parties not PVV https://t.co/nn2qPbMu74Very high turnout in #DutchElections : 73% an hour before polls close. Most analysts think will benefit left and centre parties not PVV https://t.co/nn2qPbMu74
That point is reiterated by political scientist Cas Mudde:That point is reiterated by political scientist Cas Mudde:
Higher turnout, particularly in big cities, should hurt rather than help PVV. https://t.co/vzIXTLmCSoHigher turnout, particularly in big cities, should hurt rather than help PVV. https://t.co/vzIXTLmCSo
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.40pm GMT at 7.49pm GMT
7.15pm GMT7.15pm GMT
19:1519:15
TimingsTimings
A little word on timings:A little word on timings:
Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT).Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT).
We expect the first exit poll at about 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 minutes later at 8.30pm GMTWe expect the first exit poll at about 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 minutes later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT.Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT.
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT.We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.40pm GMTat 7.40pm GMT
7.04pm GMT7.04pm GMT
19:0419:04
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.22pm GMTat 7.22pm GMT
7.00pm GMT7.00pm GMT
19:0019:00
Will polls fare any better in this election than in recent votes in the UK and the US?Will polls fare any better in this election than in recent votes in the UK and the US?
For what it’s worth here are the most recent polling predictions from the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University. They show the centrist People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) slightly in the lead.For what it’s worth here are the most recent polling predictions from the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University. They show the centrist People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) slightly in the lead.
Latest seat projections (9 March) for the Dutch elections from @tomlouwerse - VVD narrowly ahead https://t.co/vjDdP2GuBr pic.twitter.com/x5gWhhXuGPLatest seat projections (9 March) for the Dutch elections from @tomlouwerse - VVD narrowly ahead https://t.co/vjDdP2GuBr pic.twitter.com/x5gWhhXuGP
6.49pm GMT6.49pm GMT
18:4918:49
Nonetheless, the extent of Geert Wilders’s popularity will be seen as a barometer of both populist and anti-immigration sentiment in Europe.Nonetheless, the extent of Geert Wilders’s popularity will be seen as a barometer of both populist and anti-immigration sentiment in Europe.
Here is a profile of the agitator-in-chief from Gordon Darroch:Here is a profile of the agitator-in-chief from Gordon Darroch:
The queue to vote at the Binnenhof in The Hague at around midday. #verkiezingsdag pic.twitter.com/vqKgjmCEZhThe queue to vote at the Binnenhof in The Hague at around midday. #verkiezingsdag pic.twitter.com/vqKgjmCEZh
Geert Wilders founded his Party for Freedom (PVV) in 2006 with a declaration of independence from the “elite in The Hague”, and from the outset has espoused anti-Muslim rhetoric, promising to enshrine the “dominance of the Judeo-Christian tradition” in the Dutch constitution.Geert Wilders founded his Party for Freedom (PVV) in 2006 with a declaration of independence from the “elite in The Hague”, and from the outset has espoused anti-Muslim rhetoric, promising to enshrine the “dominance of the Judeo-Christian tradition” in the Dutch constitution.
As the country prepares to vote in national elections on 15 March, opinion polls have at times suggested that Wilders’ party could emerge as the country’s largest, despite recent slips. The strength of the anti-Islam, anti-EU populist PVV is reverberating around the country.As the country prepares to vote in national elections on 15 March, opinion polls have at times suggested that Wilders’ party could emerge as the country’s largest, despite recent slips. The strength of the anti-Islam, anti-EU populist PVV is reverberating around the country.
He is thought unlikely to enter government but in his decade agitating in Dutch politics, Wilders’s influence has changed the tone of debate in the country. He draws predictable comparisons with Donald Trump, but the similarities are mainly in style: a taste for sharp suits, incandescent hair dye and inflammatory tweets.He is thought unlikely to enter government but in his decade agitating in Dutch politics, Wilders’s influence has changed the tone of debate in the country. He draws predictable comparisons with Donald Trump, but the similarities are mainly in style: a taste for sharp suits, incandescent hair dye and inflammatory tweets.
While Trump rode into Washington as an outsider, Wilders has spent 19 years in parliament and is fighting his fourth election as party leader.While Trump rode into Washington as an outsider, Wilders has spent 19 years in parliament and is fighting his fourth election as party leader.
UpdatedUpdated
at 6.52pm GMTat 6.52pm GMT
6.42pm GMT6.42pm GMT
18:4218:42
This piece about what the Dutch election is – and is not – about is also excellent, and explains why the Dutch are not “doing a Brexit”, or indeed “a Trump”, this evening.This piece about what the Dutch election is – and is not – about is also excellent, and explains why the Dutch are not “doing a Brexit”, or indeed “a Trump”, this evening.
Today are Dutch elections. This is quick primer to explain what they are and are not about. #TK17 #DutchElections https://t.co/B8NK0yQmOhToday are Dutch elections. This is quick primer to explain what they are and are not about. #TK17 #DutchElections https://t.co/B8NK0yQmOh
This is a key point from Cas Mudde:This is a key point from Cas Mudde:
3 The Dutch are not electing a president3 The Dutch are not electing a president
International media style the Dutch elections as a “neck-and-neck race” between conservative prime minister Mark Rutte of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and radical-right challenger Wilders, to fit the broader frame of status quo versus populism.International media style the Dutch elections as a “neck-and-neck race” between conservative prime minister Mark Rutte of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and radical-right challenger Wilders, to fit the broader frame of status quo versus populism.
[...][...]
But however convenient it is for selling newspapers or for Rutte, this formula is inconsistent with the essence of the elections. The Dutch are electing a parliament, not a president or premier, and it is not guaranteed that the leader of the biggest party will be the premier.But however convenient it is for selling newspapers or for Rutte, this formula is inconsistent with the essence of the elections. The Dutch are electing a parliament, not a president or premier, and it is not guaranteed that the leader of the biggest party will be the premier.
In a parliamentary system the government needs the support of the parliamentary majority, not necessarily of the biggest party. Moreover, the struggle between Rutte and Wilders captures only a minority of the voters: together the VVD and PVV are only polling between 30 and 35%. In other words, the real story is somewhere else.In a parliamentary system the government needs the support of the parliamentary majority, not necessarily of the biggest party. Moreover, the struggle between Rutte and Wilders captures only a minority of the voters: together the VVD and PVV are only polling between 30 and 35%. In other words, the real story is somewhere else.
UpdatedUpdated
at 6.45pm GMTat 6.45pm GMT
6.40pm GMT6.40pm GMT
18:4018:40
6.27pm GMT6.27pm GMT
18:2718:27
This is a fascinating vote, which has garnered an unprecedented amount of interest in the Dutch political system.This is a fascinating vote, which has garnered an unprecedented amount of interest in the Dutch political system.
Whether you are coming to it fresh, or are a seasoned Netherlands’ politico, we have a comprehensive range of stories explaining the significance of today’s election.Whether you are coming to it fresh, or are a seasoned Netherlands’ politico, we have a comprehensive range of stories explaining the significance of today’s election.
A great starting place is this thorough preview from the inimitable Jon Henley, who is on the ground in The Hague.A great starting place is this thorough preview from the inimitable Jon Henley, who is on the ground in The Hague.
Queue to vote this morning at polling station in the Binnenhof - Dutch parliament pic.twitter.com/g04Bpcy705Queue to vote this morning at polling station in the Binnenhof - Dutch parliament pic.twitter.com/g04Bpcy705
What’s the political landscape and how does the system work?What’s the political landscape and how does the system work?
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected by proportional representation in a single, nationwide constituency – which means that any party that wins 0.67% of the national vote is assured of a seat (key facts about the Dutch electoral system here).Parliament is elected by proportional representation in a single, nationwide constituency – which means that any party that wins 0.67% of the national vote is assured of a seat (key facts about the Dutch electoral system here).
Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the three main parties of government from the centre-right and left. Their share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to a projected 40% this year.Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the three main parties of government from the centre-right and left. Their share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to a projected 40% this year.
This is a trend visible across Europe; see more about it here. In the Netherlands, it has been paralleled by a proliferation of smaller special interest parties: no fewer than 28 of them, many new, are contesting this election. As many as 14 are forecast to win seats, including eight with 10 or more MPs.This is a trend visible across Europe; see more about it here. In the Netherlands, it has been paralleled by a proliferation of smaller special interest parties: no fewer than 28 of them, many new, are contesting this election. As many as 14 are forecast to win seats, including eight with 10 or more MPs.
It is this fragmentation of the vote, rather than a big increase in support, that could see the PVV become the largest party. The movements that produced Brexit and Trump won about half the vote; Wilders’ is forecast to get below 20% (more from the Peilingwijzer poll aggregator here).It is this fragmentation of the vote, rather than a big increase in support, that could see the PVV become the largest party. The movements that produced Brexit and Trump won about half the vote; Wilders’ is forecast to get below 20% (more from the Peilingwijzer poll aggregator here).
UpdatedUpdated
at 6.36pm GMTat 6.36pm GMT
6.03pm GMT6.03pm GMT
18:0318:03
Welcome to the Guardian’s live blog of the 2017 Dutch elections – we’ll be covering developments throughout the night and into tomorrow, bringing you live news from the Netherlands as it happens.Welcome to the Guardian’s live blog of the 2017 Dutch elections – we’ll be covering developments throughout the night and into tomorrow, bringing you live news from the Netherlands as it happens.
With voters racing to polling stations before they close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), all eyes are on the small European nation as the world waits to see if another populist insurgent can cause further political upset in Europe, or if the rising tide of populism can be stemmed.With voters racing to polling stations before they close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), all eyes are on the small European nation as the world waits to see if another populist insurgent can cause further political upset in Europe, or if the rising tide of populism can be stemmed.
Early indications show that the turnout in 2017 is higher than the last election in 2012. According to local media reports 43% of voters went to the polls by 2.45pm GMT compared with 37% in 2012.Early indications show that the turnout in 2017 is higher than the last election in 2012. According to local media reports 43% of voters went to the polls by 2.45pm GMT compared with 37% in 2012.
Why do we care about this election?Why do we care about this election?
It’s the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are hoping to match the success of Britain’s leave campaign and the victory of Donald Trump in the United States. France will go to the polls to elect a new president next month, while a general election in Germany is due in September.It’s the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are hoping to match the success of Britain’s leave campaign and the victory of Donald Trump in the United States. France will go to the polls to elect a new president next month, while a general election in Germany is due in September.
The conservative prime minister, Mark Rutte, leader of the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is up against the far-right, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV).The conservative prime minister, Mark Rutte, leader of the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is up against the far-right, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV).
Wilders has called for - among other things - the closing of mosques and Islamic schools, banning sales of the Qur’an and barring Muslim migrants. Rutte has said the election is an opportunity for voters to “beat the wrong sort of populism”.Wilders has called for - among other things - the closing of mosques and Islamic schools, banning sales of the Qur’an and barring Muslim migrants. Rutte has said the election is an opportunity for voters to “beat the wrong sort of populism”.
The VVD leads the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University, on 17% - which could equate to about 24-28 seats - while Wilders’ party is close behind on 14%, about 12-23. After recent elections, however, polls increasingly come with a fairly hefty health warning.The VVD leads the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University, on 17% - which could equate to about 24-28 seats - while Wilders’ party is close behind on 14%, about 12-23. After recent elections, however, polls increasingly come with a fairly hefty health warning.
Even if the PVV emerge as the country’s largest party, it’s unlikely Wilders will enter government. The other mainstream parties have already made it pretty clear they will not enter into a coalition with him.Even if the PVV emerge as the country’s largest party, it’s unlikely Wilders will enter government. The other mainstream parties have already made it pretty clear they will not enter into a coalition with him.
However, after shock results in the UK and the US, a strong showing for Wilders would further spook the Netherlands’ European neighbours and send further shockwaves across the continent.However, after shock results in the UK and the US, a strong showing for Wilders would further spook the Netherlands’ European neighbours and send further shockwaves across the continent.
UpdatedUpdated
at 6.13pm GMTat 6.13pm GMT