Nicola Sturgeon can’t rely on Brexit to win Scottish independence
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Version 0 of 1. For the SNP, the outcome of the EU referendum was a perfect illustration of how Scotland’s democratic wishes are always at risk of being overturned by votes cast in England. Doubtless the party anticipated that, as a result, voters would be persuaded to gravitate towards support for independence. Although Nicola Sturgeon has now indicated that because of the kind of hard Brexit the UK government appears to have in mind, she would like to hold a second independence referendum, things have so far not worked out in the way she might have hoped. Not that there is any sign that support for independence has fallen away. Seven polls taken since Theresa May laid out her vision for Brexit in mid-January have on average found that 47% would vote yes to independence, while 53% would vote no. That certainly suggests Sturgeon has some prospect of winning a second referendum, and indeed a much better chance of doing so than Alex Salmond did before the referendum in 2014. However, 47% the same as the average level of support for yes recorded by the dozen polls of referendum vote intentions between January and June last year, prior to 23 June. In short, the outcome of last year’s ballot has done nothing to move the balance of opinion on Scotland’s constitutional status. There are two key reasons why this is the case. First, despite the impression given by the fact that all of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas voted to remain, the EU referendum divided the nationalist movement – just as it did virtually every other political grouping in the UK (Ukip apart). More than one survey has found that around one in three of those who voted yes in 2014 voted to leave the EU. Some of them already seem to have changed their minds about independence. According to YouGov, whereas 86% of 2014 yes voters who voted to remain in the EU would vote for independence again, among those who voted leave only 65% would now do so. So the UK-wide vote in favour of Brexit has apparently made staying in the UK a more attractive proposition for some voters. Second, it looks as though the commitment to the EU of many remain voters is relatively weak, and certainly not strong enough to dissuade them from changing their minds about wanting to stay in the UK. The latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey, published today, finds that over half (56%) of those in Scotland who voted to remain would, nevertheless, like the EU to have less power. That helps explain why, although some voters have switched from no to yes in the wake of the Brexit vote, it has been more a trickle than a flood, and has done no more than counterbalance those who have moved from yes to no. As many as 74% of 2014 no voters who backed remain say they would vote no again – less than the equivalent figure of 94% amongst those no voters who backed leave, but indicating that, despite Brexit, most no voters still want to stay in the UK. So while Brexit may be the immediate reason why Sturgeon wants to hold a second independence referendum, it is not necessarily going to be the issue that will win over the voters she needs if she is to obtain a majority vote to leave the UK. Already there are signs that the Scottish government may be rowing back from the proposition that an independent Scotland would seek to be a member of the EU; being part of the single market might be enough. Meanwhile, SNP politicians are already trying to widen the debate by suggesting that voters should ask themselves whether they want many more years of Tory rule from London. That consideration – and even more importantly whether the SNP can develop a more persuasive economic case for independence – is the ground upon which any second referendum is more likely to be won and lost. |