Despite the political impasse in Northern Ireland, there is hope on housing

https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2017/mar/15/political-impasse-northern-ireland-housing

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In Northern Ireland we are well used to political uncertainty and disagreement. The current impasse is not new.

We have had periods before of the assembly being suspended and direct rule from Westminster being implemented. We also had the same usual sectarian onslaught in the run up to the election calling for votes to keep the “other side” out. But there has been a profound change in the political landscape over the past 10 months since our last election. For the first time since the island was partitioned nearly 100 years ago, unionists do not have a majority and Sinn Féin is now only one seat behind the Democratic Unionist party (DUP), still the largest party, reducing the deficit from 10 at the last election.

This will have a direct impact on housing. Three former housing ministers, all senior members of their own parties, Alex Attwood, Nelson McCausland and Maurice Morrow, failed to get re-elected. They were also senior members within their political parties.

The political parties are now engaged in negotiations about once again forming a government. The stumbling block is of course Sinn Féin’s refusal to work with Arlene Foster the DUP leader while the botched renewable energy heating incentive scheme now referred to as “cash for ash”, for which she had responsibility for as a former minister, is being investigated.

The Northern Ireland secretary, James Brokenshire, recently cancelled his trip to the US to meet President Trump as part of the St Patrick’s Day celebrations, in order to concentrate on the talks at Stormont, which are at a crucial stage. If agreement isn’t reached by 27 March, Brokenshire may have no other option to call yet another election. The ultimate scenario could be that power will be returned to Westminster.

Meanwhile, a budget for 2017-18 has yet to be struck. If a deal is not forthcoming over the next few weeks, the civil service can step in to allocate 75% of the budget, leaving total uncertainty over the remaining quarter. In the chancellor’s recent budget announcement, Northern Ireland was given an extra £120m and again this will have to be allocated so it is important to have an executive in place sooner rather than later.

This of course will have a profound effect on the many small charities in Northern Ireland, who will not know what they might get.

Housing associations are also uncertain as to what support they will receive for the social housing development programme, while the Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) needs to raise millions of pounds to invest in its ageing stock, and the social housing reform programme, announced in January 2013, which was, among other things, to review the status of the NIHE, is still ongoing. The current impasse will also delay the move to reclassify housing associations as private bodies.

So things are at a standstill at present while the parties resume talks to get a new government up and running. There are uncertainties but we have been down this road many times before and agreements have eventually been reached.

But things are moving on around us. Brexit is looming and there are major concerns over the return of a hard border with the Republic of Ireland. While many people might look on this situation as the same old, same old, I believe things might actually improve now the goalposts have changed and the two main parties are neck and neck.

It is more likely that these two parties will work together with other parties to progress what has already been started. Neither want a return to direct rule so skilful negotiations, mature politics and genuine respect are now crucial.

Paddy Gray is professor emeritus of housing at Ulster University

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