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| Markets await UK unemployment report and US interest rate decision - business live | Markets await UK unemployment report and US interest rate decision - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.16am GMT | |
| 08:16 | |
| There’s a chance that Britain’s jobless rate could hit a new 11-year low of 4.7% today, down from last month’s 4.8%. | |
| That’s according to RBC Capital Markets, who also predict that wage growth will slow. | |
| Last month’s strong report emphatically removed the skew of risks on the unemployment rate rising from 4.8% to 4.9%. Indeed, if anything, the skew of risks on this occasion is that it could actually drop to 4.7% but our central expectation is that unemployment holds at 4.8% for a fifth consecutive month. | |
| The 3m/3m employment level looks set to post a healthy gain too as the recently softness provides a relatively easy comparator for the latest data. The 37k 3m/3m gain last time should well at least be matched on this occasion. | |
| For average earnings we look for growth to ease to 2.4% 3m/y for both the including and excluding bonus measures from 2.6% 3m/y last time. This would be consistent with the message from the Bank of England Agents’ recent survey on pay settlements which pointed towards growth slowing from 2.7% on average in 2016 to 2.2% for 2017 | |
| 7.46am GMT | 7.46am GMT |
| 07:46 | 07:46 |
| UK cuts stake in Lloyds below 3% | UK cuts stake in Lloyds below 3% |
| More than eight years after bailing Lloyds Banking Group out, the British government has taken another step towards the exit door. | More than eight years after bailing Lloyds Banking Group out, the British government has taken another step towards the exit door. |
| The UK has sold another slice of Lloyds shares, taking its stake below the 3% level. | The UK has sold another slice of Lloyds shares, taking its stake below the 3% level. |
| According to the Treasury, this means taxpayers have recovered over £19.5bn of the £20.3bn which they put into Lloyds, once share sales and dividends received are accounted for. | According to the Treasury, this means taxpayers have recovered over £19.5bn of the £20.3bn which they put into Lloyds, once share sales and dividends received are accounted for. |
| Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Simon Kirby, says: | Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Simon Kirby, says: |
| “Lloyds’ recent annual results show that we are in a good position to reduce our shareholding further and expect to recover all of the money taxpayers injected into the bank during the financial crisis.” | “Lloyds’ recent annual results show that we are in a good position to reduce our shareholding further and expect to recover all of the money taxpayers injected into the bank during the financial crisis.” |
| Government stake in Lloyds falls again to below 3% | Government stake in Lloyds falls again to below 3% |
| “Today’s announcement moves Lloyds another step closer to full private ownership" says Lloyds | “Today’s announcement moves Lloyds another step closer to full private ownership" says Lloyds |
| 7.43am GMT | 7.43am GMT |
| 07:43 | 07:43 |
| The agenda: UK unemployment and US rate hike (probably) | The agenda: UK unemployment and US rate hike (probably) |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Central bankers like to avoid surprising the markets. So with everyone expecting a US interest rate rise tonight, there’s no reason for the Federal Reserve to worry about announcing its first hike of 2017. | Central bankers like to avoid surprising the markets. So with everyone expecting a US interest rate rise tonight, there’s no reason for the Federal Reserve to worry about announcing its first hike of 2017. |
| But it’s not quite a simple as that. Investors across the globe want to know how rapidly the Fed will act this year - is it still expecting three rate hikes this year? Might we only see two, or should traders brace for as many as four? | But it’s not quite a simple as that. Investors across the globe want to know how rapidly the Fed will act this year - is it still expecting three rate hikes this year? Might we only see two, or should traders brace for as many as four? |
| That means we could see market volatility when the Fed releases its statement, and when Janet Yellen faces the press. | That means we could see market volatility when the Fed releases its statement, and when Janet Yellen faces the press. |
| We have to wait a few hours for this excitement, though: | We have to wait a few hours for this excitement, though: |
| 2pm EDT/6pm GMT: Fed interest rate decision | 2pm EDT/6pm GMT: Fed interest rate decision |
| 2.30pm EDT/6.30pm GMT: Press conference with Fed chair Janet Yellen | 2.30pm EDT/6.30pm GMT: Press conference with Fed chair Janet Yellen |
| But in the meantime, we’re also getting a new healthcheck on Britain’s jobs market at 9.30am. | But in the meantime, we’re also getting a new healthcheck on Britain’s jobs market at 9.30am. |
| Economists expect that the UK unemployment rate will remain at just 4.8% in the thee months to January, its lowest since the financial crisis. | Economists expect that the UK unemployment rate will remain at just 4.8% in the thee months to January, its lowest since the financial crisis. |
| But the wages figures could show a slight slowdown, with average earnings (excluding bonuses) tipped to rise by 2.5% per year, down from 2.6% last month. That would be a worry, given inflation is picking up. | But the wages figures could show a slight slowdown, with average earnings (excluding bonuses) tipped to rise by 2.5% per year, down from 2.6% last month. That would be a worry, given inflation is picking up. |
| Also coming up: | Also coming up: |
| It’s election day in the Netherlands. Can far-right leader Geert Wilders notch up another win for the populists and beat mainstream rivals, such as PM Mark Rutte’s VVD? | It’s election day in the Netherlands. Can far-right leader Geert Wilders notch up another win for the populists and beat mainstream rivals, such as PM Mark Rutte’s VVD? |
| Results are expected in the early hours of Thursday. No party is likely to win a majority meaning it could take weeks for a coalition to be agreed. | Results are expected in the early hours of Thursday. No party is likely to win a majority meaning it could take weeks for a coalition to be agreed. |
| Dutch PM Mark Rutte 'boosted by spat with Turkey' as election nears https://t.co/2WES97kp02 | Dutch PM Mark Rutte 'boosted by spat with Turkey' as election nears https://t.co/2WES97kp02 |
| European stock markets are expected to rise modestly in early trading. | European stock markets are expected to rise modestly in early trading. |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7364 up 6$DAX 12000 up 11$CAC 4982 up 7$IBEX 9932 up 27$MIB 19582 up 44 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7364 up 6$DAX 12000 up 11$CAC 4982 up 7$IBEX 9932 up 27$MIB 19582 up 44 |