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Dutch election: PM Mark Rutte 'boosted by spat with Turkey' as voting begins Dutch election: PM Mark Rutte 'boosted by spat with Turkey' as voting begins
(about 1 hour later)
Millions of Dutch voters head to the polls today in a high-stakes general election overshadowed by an ugly diplomatic standoff between Turkey and EU capitals that analysts believe has played in the prime minister’s favour. Millions of Dutch voters head to the polls today in a high-stakes general election overshadowed by a diplomatic standoff between Turkey and EU capitals that analysts believe has played in the prime minister’s favour.
On Tuesday, a day before the vote widely viewed abroad through the prism of the UK’s Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s US victory, late polls gave Mark Rutte’s liberal centre-right VVD party its clearest lead yet over Geert Wilders’ populist, anti-Islam, Freedom party, which some surveys put down in third or even fifth place.On Tuesday, a day before the vote widely viewed abroad through the prism of the UK’s Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s US victory, late polls gave Mark Rutte’s liberal centre-right VVD party its clearest lead yet over Geert Wilders’ populist, anti-Islam, Freedom party, which some surveys put down in third or even fifth place.
Experts said the increasingly acrimonious spat with Ankara – over the Dutch refusal to allow Turkish ministers to campaign in the Netherlands for a referendum on plans to grant Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, sweeping new powers – had benefited Rutte.Experts said the increasingly acrimonious spat with Ankara – over the Dutch refusal to allow Turkish ministers to campaign in the Netherlands for a referendum on plans to grant Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, sweeping new powers – had benefited Rutte.
In a campaign dominated by Wilders’ core themes of immigration and integration, the row “allowed Rutte to show himself as a statesman – and to send a Turkish minister packing”, said André Krouwel, a political scientist at Amsterdam’s Free University.In a campaign dominated by Wilders’ core themes of immigration and integration, the row “allowed Rutte to show himself as a statesman – and to send a Turkish minister packing”, said André Krouwel, a political scientist at Amsterdam’s Free University.
“What better publicity could a politician want a few days before an election?” Klouwer said. “Rutte was able to show he could actually expel Turks, and to tell Wilders, ‘You’re just sitting there, tweeting’ … This has won Rutte the election.”“What better publicity could a politician want a few days before an election?” Klouwer said. “Rutte was able to show he could actually expel Turks, and to tell Wilders, ‘You’re just sitting there, tweeting’ … This has won Rutte the election.”
A survey by the Dutch pollster Maurice de Hond said 86% of voters backed the way the 50-year-old, two-term Dutch prime minister had handled the situation.A survey by the Dutch pollster Maurice de Hond said 86% of voters backed the way the 50-year-old, two-term Dutch prime minister had handled the situation.
On Tuesday, however, having suspended high-level relations and repeatedly described the Dutch government as Nazis, Erdoğan warned the Netherlands it faced further retaliation.On Tuesday, however, having suspended high-level relations and repeatedly described the Dutch government as Nazis, Erdoğan warned the Netherlands it faced further retaliation.
Erdoğan said he held the Netherlands responsible for Europe’s worst mass killing since the second world war. In a televised speech, he said of the 1995 Srebrenica massacre: “We know the Netherlands and the Dutch … we know how rotten their character is, from their massacre of 8,000 Bosnians there.”Erdoğan said he held the Netherlands responsible for Europe’s worst mass killing since the second world war. In a televised speech, he said of the 1995 Srebrenica massacre: “We know the Netherlands and the Dutch … we know how rotten their character is, from their massacre of 8,000 Bosnians there.”
In an episode that 20 years later remains a national trauma, Dutch UN peacekeepers failed to prevent killings for which a UN tribunal later found the former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadžić guilty of genocide.In an episode that 20 years later remains a national trauma, Dutch UN peacekeepers failed to prevent killings for which a UN tribunal later found the former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadžić guilty of genocide.
Rutte denounced Erdogan’s claim as a “repugnant distortion of history”, saying the Dutch would “not lower [themselves] to this level”. Rutte denounced Erdoğan’s claim as a “repugnant distortion of history”, saying the Dutch would “not lower [themselves] to this level”.
Foreign votes could be crucial to Erdogan’s efforts to win the referendum, the outcome of which is likely to be tight. More than 1.4 million Turkish nationals eligible to vote live in Germany, with a further 250,000 in the Netherlands. Foreign votes could be crucial to Erdoğan’s efforts to win the referendum, the outcome of which is likely to be tight. More than 1.4 million Turkish nationals eligible to vote live in Germany, with a further 250,000 in the Netherlands.
Erdogan described the Netherlands, and Germany – which has also barred Turkish ministers from trying to drum up expat votes – as “bandit states” that were harming the EU. Erdoğan described the Netherlands, and Germany – which has also barred Turkish ministers from trying to drum up expat votes – as “bandit states” that were harming the EU.
Germany’s interior minister, Thomas de Maizière, said Ankara was playing the role of victim as it sought to “build solidarity” ahead of its referendum. Germany would not take part in a “competition of provocations”, he said. Germany’s interior minister, Thomas de Maizière, said Ankara was playing the role of victim as it sought to “build solidarity” in the run-up to its referendum. Germany would not take part in a “competition of provocations”, he said.
The Turkish president also accused the Netherlands of “state terror” over the weekend’s events, when Turkey’s family minister, Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya, was escorted out of the country and the foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, denied permission to land.The Turkish president also accused the Netherlands of “state terror” over the weekend’s events, when Turkey’s family minister, Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya, was escorted out of the country and the foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, denied permission to land.
On Wednesday, Merkel’s chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, warned that the German government reserved the right to impose entry bans on Turkish officials hoping to campaign in Germany, though he said the measure would be a “last resort.”
As many as 28 parties are fielding candidates in the Dutch vote, with Rutte’s liberal VVD party on course to win up to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, and Wilders, having led in the polls for the best part of two years, predicted to secure 24.As many as 28 parties are fielding candidates in the Dutch vote, with Rutte’s liberal VVD party on course to win up to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, and Wilders, having led in the polls for the best part of two years, predicted to secure 24.
Wilders’ performance is being keenly watched ahead of the presidential elections in France, in which the Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, is set to reach the second-round run-off, and also before a possible strong showing by the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) in that country’s parliamentary polls this autumn.Wilders’ performance is being keenly watched ahead of the presidential elections in France, in which the Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, is set to reach the second-round run-off, and also before a possible strong showing by the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) in that country’s parliamentary polls this autumn.
But the Dutch vote is about far more than Wilders, who was found guilty of inciting discrimination in December and whose brief election manifesto includes pledges to close mosques, ban sales of the Qur’an, bar Muslim immigrants and take the Netherlands out of the EU.But the Dutch vote is about far more than Wilders, who was found guilty of inciting discrimination in December and whose brief election manifesto includes pledges to close mosques, ban sales of the Qur’an, bar Muslim immigrants and take the Netherlands out of the EU.
In a Dutch parliament fragmented as never before, a record 14 parties are set to wind up with at least one MP, including eight with 10 or more and six with up to 25. Analysts expect the governing coalition that emerges will involve at least five parties. Up to 15% of voters have yet to make up their minds.In a Dutch parliament fragmented as never before, a record 14 parties are set to wind up with at least one MP, including eight with 10 or more and six with up to 25. Analysts expect the governing coalition that emerges will involve at least five parties. Up to 15% of voters have yet to make up their minds.
“Wilders will play no role in forming the government,” Krouwel said. “But he has played a huge part in the campaign and in that sense has already won, because the two biggest right-wing parties have adopted his policies.”“Wilders will play no role in forming the government,” Krouwel said. “But he has played a huge part in the campaign and in that sense has already won, because the two biggest right-wing parties have adopted his policies.”
Besides the VVD, the centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) is forecast to fare well, while on the left, the social democrat Labour party (PvdA) – part of Rutte’s governing coalition – is set to lose most of its MPs.Besides the VVD, the centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) is forecast to fare well, while on the left, the social democrat Labour party (PvdA) – part of Rutte’s governing coalition – is set to lose most of its MPs.
But the pro-EU, liberal-progressive Democrats 66 (D66) party is on track to return more, and GroenLinks (the Green Left) is on course for its best ever result – and possible role as kingmaker.But the pro-EU, liberal-progressive Democrats 66 (D66) party is on track to return more, and GroenLinks (the Green Left) is on course for its best ever result – and possible role as kingmaker.
The EU-Turkey standoff has further strained relations already frayed over human rights, and looks likely to dim yet further Turkey’s prospects of joining the bloc, a process that has been underway for more than 50 years.The EU-Turkey standoff has further strained relations already frayed over human rights, and looks likely to dim yet further Turkey’s prospects of joining the bloc, a process that has been underway for more than 50 years.