The Brexit fanatics are at the helm, but don’t despair - this is not over
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Version 0 of 1. That’s it; the way is clear for Theresa May to plunge the country into a self-destructive journey into thickets of the unknown. This will be her legacy, her hand the one that risked breaking the economy and breaking the United Kingdom too. Look what’s been unleashed. Nicola Sturgeon leaps at the chance, making a hard border along a new Hadrian’s wall a frightening possibility, along with a Trump-fence across Ireland, or Northern Ireland gone altogether. What a curious confrontation to hear May and Sturgeon each accuse the other of reckless folly in wrenching their country away from their biggest markets: both are right. May likes regal comparisons – and Bloody Mary she may be if, through inept intransigence, Edinburgh ends up carved on her heart, with nothing left but a bereft little England, Wales limping alongside, cutting a bedraggled figure in the world. The country voted to leave, but she had choices: she may yet be devoured by the hard Brexit tiger she has chosen to ride. She could have taken a softer, more pragmatic path of moderation, compromise and neighbourliness, mindful of her country’s other 48%. The letter she sends to sever our 44-year alliance could open in a spirit of generosity by welcoming our existing European Union citizens, but instead she sets out grim-faced, ungiving. She has handed the helm to the wreckers, on a fanatics’ mission that will allow no swerving to avoid the rocks. Only the hardest of Brexits will do, yet even that’s not enough for these insatiables. Battle-hardened revolutionaries who have fought this eccentric cause for decades can’t lay down their guns, even though they won: the likes of Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood and Liam Fox can only do politics as guerrilla fighters. Parliament voted this week, but with no mandate for hard Brexit – out of the single market and customs union, with immigration May’s priority. As the going gets tough, voters might recall how often Brexiteers such as Daniel Hannan said: “Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market.” Take a look at the Tory manifesto, committed to the single market. That’s why Michael Heseltine is right to say: “The fightback starts here,” after his sacking displayed the worst of May’s small-minded limitations. “Who can say,” Heseltine writes, “how people will respond when negotiations with Europe lay bare harsh realities, supplanting the shamelessly false prospectus on which the leavers won the referendum?” Ask psephologist Professor John Curtice, and he says voters may indeed change their minds if the bad consequences of leaving become apparent in a drip-drip of closing factories, emptying City glass towers, a flight of jobs. But, he adds, that all depends on who gets to frame the story: “If the EU is seen as playing hard ball there may be a Pavlovian reaction so leavers feel their choice was justified: they never took the EU to their hearts.” But May is at risk, he says, if she can’t deliver a promised good deal on trade without freedom of movement. The “framers”, as usual, will be the Mail, the Sun, Express and Telegraph, pouncing on any compromise, blaming foreigners who, not unreasonably, say a Brexit deal must be worse than Britain staying in. Monday’s Daily Mail, ahead of the Lords’ reprised debate, issued a typically thuggish threat across its front page: “Cover-up over ‘dodgy’ payouts to peers.” Vote the wrong way, and we’ll dig out your attendance expenses. That’s how it will be every step of the way with these true “enemies of the people”. Theresa May, who apparently never knowingly opposes the will of the Mail, will surely give way every time. Indeed, it might save a lot of time if she simply asked Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch what, if any, compromises they will stomach to get a deal, and do what they say. Will they or the Brexit madmen compromise on anything at all? She starts out badly by refusing the modest request for a meaningful parliamentary vote at the end, deal or no deal. Boris Johnson’s throwaway line that it would be “perfectly OK” to fall back on WTO terms shows how far they have vanished into Neverland. A deliberate “no deal” may be all the fanatics will now accept. Heseltine is right to live in hope when everything is in flux. The German parliament is just passing a five-year ban on all benefits for non-German EU citizens. Had Cameron come home with that, the referendum might have swung the other way. Observers suggest his obnoxious sabre-rattling to pacify his Brexiteers guaranteed he got almost nothing. If only May looked set to approach these negotiations in a better frame of mind. But that’s never been the British way, and the horrible history of arrogant Albion will tell against us. Thatcher’s handbag swung at them. Blair always brandished “red lines” before summits, making not one pro-Europe speech in this country. In 2007 Brown went to comical lengths to avoid being seen signing the Lisbon treaty, sneaking in late behind closed doors. The pro-remain letter Tory MPs sent out to constituents had five entirely negative bullet points: “No euro … we stayed out of Schengen … we secured opt-outs … we have an emergency brake on in-work benefits …we got the EU to cut red tape.” Not since Edward Heath (a useless communicator) did any leader hymn praise to the EU’s peace and fraternity between close cultures with shared values in a threatening world. Don’t imagine it’s all over. It’s hardly begun. Ahead lies the so-called great reform bill, re-homing EU laws, which must be done by Brexit-day in two years. Watch the fanatics battle to strip out every regulation they can – on food, environment, work, banking, safe medicines, nuclear power, cyberfraud, everything that touches daily lives. Watch the zealots’ culture wars aim for no rules, no taxes and wild west Trumpish “freedoms”. But they may over-reach, and turn the tide against themselves. Jean-Claude Juncker gently hopes one day we might return. Guy Verhofstadt hopes we can keep our valued EU citizenship. On past form we may test the EU’s patience to the utmost – but if they can restrain retaliation and remember the other 48% of us, they could persuade enough leavers to change their minds before it’s too late. Despite everything, this is no time to despair. Be there on 25 March, marching to celebrate the EU’s 60th anniversary, keeping spirits up, because all is not lost. |