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The Guardian view on another Scottish vote: Theresa May’s homemade crisis The Guardian view on another Scottish vote: Theresa May’s homemade crisis
(about 4 hours later)
Theresa May’s very first move as prime minister last July was to fly to Edinburgh to meet Scotland’s first minister. Her decision to get on the plane herself rather than invite Nicola Sturgeon to come to London was a timely gesture. It acknowledged the significance of the Scots’ 62-38 vote in favour of remain, and the complexity of reconciling that outcome with the leave majority in England and Wales that carried the UK.Theresa May’s very first move as prime minister last July was to fly to Edinburgh to meet Scotland’s first minister. Her decision to get on the plane herself rather than invite Nicola Sturgeon to come to London was a timely gesture. It acknowledged the significance of the Scots’ 62-38 vote in favour of remain, and the complexity of reconciling that outcome with the leave majority in England and Wales that carried the UK.
Just over a week ago, the prime minister went north again, to Glasgow this time, for her party’s Scottish conference. Here she delivered a speech that was aimed entirely at the audience in front of her. It so diminished the prospects of a Brexit dividend, in the shape of more powers for Holyrood, that it was at once interpreted as a challenge to Ms Sturgeon to call a second referendum. Support has been growing since Mrs May set out her negotiating position in January, when she rejected continued membership of the single market. It now hovers around 50%.Just over a week ago, the prime minister went north again, to Glasgow this time, for her party’s Scottish conference. Here she delivered a speech that was aimed entirely at the audience in front of her. It so diminished the prospects of a Brexit dividend, in the shape of more powers for Holyrood, that it was at once interpreted as a challenge to Ms Sturgeon to call a second referendum. Support has been growing since Mrs May set out her negotiating position in January, when she rejected continued membership of the single market. It now hovers around 50%.
On Monday Nicola Sturgeon stood in front of the same elegant Bute House fireplace where she had posed with Mrs May back in July and declared that the “brick wall of intransigence” over Brexit negotiations was forcing her to call a second independence vote. The field is prepared for a tense and unpredictable contest between the nationalisms of England and Scotland. Theresa May is leading the UK out of Europe. She may have precipitated Scotland’s departure from the UK.On Monday Nicola Sturgeon stood in front of the same elegant Bute House fireplace where she had posed with Mrs May back in July and declared that the “brick wall of intransigence” over Brexit negotiations was forcing her to call a second independence vote. The field is prepared for a tense and unpredictable contest between the nationalisms of England and Scotland. Theresa May is leading the UK out of Europe. She may have precipitated Scotland’s departure from the UK.
These are not the circumstances in which the SNP anticipated embarking on a second independence campaign. There is not the sustained poll support for the idea nor the enthusiasm for a second referendum that only a year ago were taken as prerequisites. Brexit has changed everything. Mrs May’s apparent readiness to tolerate leaving without a deal, her rejection of any attempt either to fight in the negotiations for access to the single market for the UK, or to hold out the hope of a deal that would allow Scotland its own relationship with the rest of Europe, have both played straight to the independence cause. Ms Sturgeon says she was misled by the prime minister over the single market hours before Mrs May announced in her definitive Lancaster House speech in January that the UK would not try to remain in it. Scotland’s needs have been brutally ignored, its special identity – of which the SNP is the unquestioned guardian – disregarded. The choice facing voters in an independence referendum can be framed as one between the certain economic catastrophe of crashing out of the EU and the uncertain consequences of leaving the UK.These are not the circumstances in which the SNP anticipated embarking on a second independence campaign. There is not the sustained poll support for the idea nor the enthusiasm for a second referendum that only a year ago were taken as prerequisites. Brexit has changed everything. Mrs May’s apparent readiness to tolerate leaving without a deal, her rejection of any attempt either to fight in the negotiations for access to the single market for the UK, or to hold out the hope of a deal that would allow Scotland its own relationship with the rest of Europe, have both played straight to the independence cause. Ms Sturgeon says she was misled by the prime minister over the single market hours before Mrs May announced in her definitive Lancaster House speech in January that the UK would not try to remain in it. Scotland’s needs have been brutally ignored, its special identity – of which the SNP is the unquestioned guardian – disregarded. The choice facing voters in an independence referendum can be framed as one between the certain economic catastrophe of crashing out of the EU and the uncertain consequences of leaving the UK.
All of this has been well gamed in the past nine months by Ms Sturgeon. With an enfeebled Labour party, whose leader, Jeremy Corbyn, could not even decide at the weekend whether or not to support a second independence vote, it was easy for Ms Sturgeon to warn that the Tories could be in power at Westminster for another 10, maybe even 15, years. The union’s defenders are divided and Labour will not lightly repeat the mistake of sharing a platform with the Tories as it did in 2014, a decision that it blames for its electoral catastrophes. No party that exists to secure Scottish independence could ignore such a favourable coincidence of circumstances. Work to make good the weaknesses exposed in the last campaign is well underway; a commission is examining the economic consequences of independence. Expectations are already being managed down. All of this has been well gamed in the past nine months by Ms Sturgeon. With an enfeebled Labour party, whose leader, Jeremy Corbyn, could not even decide at the weekend whether or not to support a second independence vote, it was easy for Ms Sturgeon to warn that the Tories could be in power at Westminster for another 10, maybe even 15, years. The union’s defenders are divided and Labour will not lightly repeat the mistake of sharing a platform with the Tories as it did in 2014, a decision that it blames for its electoral catastrophes. No party that exists to secure Scottish independence could ignore such a favourable coincidence of circumstances. Work to make good the weaknesses exposed in the last campaign is well under way; a commission is examining the economic consequences of independence. Expectations are already being managed down.
The prime minister is not defenceless. Parliament has to approve the decision to hold a referendum. Westminster can dictate the timing. The Tories will argue that there cannot be a Scottish independence vote while the terms of Brexit are uncertain. The SNP assertion that the vote must take place at the end of 2018 or early 2019, before a deal is agreed, in order to be able to remain a member of the EU has been challenged in Brussels. But there is little else in the tool kit. A vote before 2020 now looks almost certain.The prime minister is not defenceless. Parliament has to approve the decision to hold a referendum. Westminster can dictate the timing. The Tories will argue that there cannot be a Scottish independence vote while the terms of Brexit are uncertain. The SNP assertion that the vote must take place at the end of 2018 or early 2019, before a deal is agreed, in order to be able to remain a member of the EU has been challenged in Brussels. But there is little else in the tool kit. A vote before 2020 now looks almost certain.
This is an unnecessary crisis, made in Downing Street with some of the same elements of control freakery and intransigence that have shaken relations post-budget between Mrs May and her chancellor. They are part of an increasingly familiar pattern of behaviour from the prime minister. Nicola Sturgeon’s strongest argument may not be that material circumstances have changed since 2014 because an English majority voted to leave the EU, but the disregard that the prime minister has shown for all those who voted to remain.This is an unnecessary crisis, made in Downing Street with some of the same elements of control freakery and intransigence that have shaken relations post-budget between Mrs May and her chancellor. They are part of an increasingly familiar pattern of behaviour from the prime minister. Nicola Sturgeon’s strongest argument may not be that material circumstances have changed since 2014 because an English majority voted to leave the EU, but the disregard that the prime minister has shown for all those who voted to remain.