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Theresa May’s refusal to give an inch has forced Sturgeon’s hand Theresa May’s refusal to give an inch has forced Sturgeon’s hand
(about 3 hours later)
Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to flag up a second referendum on Scottish independence is hardly a bombshell – it has been the stuff of rumour since the Brexit vote last year. But it certainly threw a hand grenade into a Westminster forum fixated on the triggering of article 50. So while London waited for one starting gun to fire, another went off in the elegant surroundings of the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh.Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to flag up a second referendum on Scottish independence is hardly a bombshell – it has been the stuff of rumour since the Brexit vote last year. But it certainly threw a hand grenade into a Westminster forum fixated on the triggering of article 50. So while London waited for one starting gun to fire, another went off in the elegant surroundings of the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh.
The word repeated throughout Sturgeon’s speech was “choice”: that Scotland had made a different choice last June (62% voted remain in the EU referendum); that Scotland had been given no choice and no say in the post-Brexit conversations; and, crucially and repeatedly, that the choice regarding Scotland’s future relationship with Europe and with the UK, and the kind of country it aspires to be, must be one taken by the Scottish people.The word repeated throughout Sturgeon’s speech was “choice”: that Scotland had made a different choice last June (62% voted remain in the EU referendum); that Scotland had been given no choice and no say in the post-Brexit conversations; and, crucially and repeatedly, that the choice regarding Scotland’s future relationship with Europe and with the UK, and the kind of country it aspires to be, must be one taken by the Scottish people.
The speculation over whether Scotland’s first minister is minded to risk a second poll has been constant in the last weeks and months. Now it seems to have reached the point where her greatest fear is being cast as the Grand Old Duchess of York, constantly marching her troops towards the possibility of another referendum but never quite giving the order to advance. The speculation over whether Scotland’s first minister is minded to risk a second poll has been constant in the last weeks and months. Now it seems to have reached the point where her greatest fear is being cast as the Grand Old Duchess of York, constantly marching her troops towards the possibility of another referendum but never quite giving the order to attack.
But there are several other factors in play. Two polls in the last 48 hours have put a prospective yes vote for independence at 50% and 48% – not a majority, but both up on the 45% who voted for independence in autumn 2014. And her speech comes, too, after several interventions from other parties.But there are several other factors in play. Two polls in the last 48 hours have put a prospective yes vote for independence at 50% and 48% – not a majority, but both up on the 45% who voted for independence in autumn 2014. And her speech comes, too, after several interventions from other parties.
At the Scottish Conservatives’ spring conference Theresa May seemed to suggest that, post-Brexit, some powers long since devolved to Holyrood would revert from ultimate Brussels control to London, rather than Edinburgh. This is particularly crucial in specific areas such as agriculture and fishing, and the wider areas of employment, welfare and human rights. In her remarks today, Sturgeon alluded to the Scottish parliament having fewer powers when the UK leaves the EU, rather than the enhanced powers once promised.At the Scottish Conservatives’ spring conference Theresa May seemed to suggest that, post-Brexit, some powers long since devolved to Holyrood would revert from ultimate Brussels control to London, rather than Edinburgh. This is particularly crucial in specific areas such as agriculture and fishing, and the wider areas of employment, welfare and human rights. In her remarks today, Sturgeon alluded to the Scottish parliament having fewer powers when the UK leaves the EU, rather than the enhanced powers once promised.
Then, too, the Scottish government has become increasingly frustrated at being kept out of the Brexit loop, despite promises of a partnership. They were given no warning that the prime minister was to set her face against staying in the single market and the customs union, and they have been told no more than anyone else about when the UK government will finally press the article 50 nuclear button.Then, too, the Scottish government has become increasingly frustrated at being kept out of the Brexit loop, despite promises of a partnership. They were given no warning that the prime minister was to set her face against staying in the single market and the customs union, and they have been told no more than anyone else about when the UK government will finally press the article 50 nuclear button.
What was once flagged up as a partnership of equals has been no partnership at all, Sturgeon suggested in her speech. She argues that her own government has had no response to its own post-Brexit scenario, which was laid out in Scotland’s Place in Europe, and in fact felt that the document had been dismissed before the ink was properly dry.What was once flagged up as a partnership of equals has been no partnership at all, Sturgeon suggested in her speech. She argues that her own government has had no response to its own post-Brexit scenario, which was laid out in Scotland’s Place in Europe, and in fact felt that the document had been dismissed before the ink was properly dry.
The crossroads Scotland faces, argues the first minister, is one it has been driven to by the consistent refusal of May “to move a single inch towards a compromise”. She insists that had there been any indication that the UK government would be open to a differentiated deal for Scotland – as it appears to have made deals with the car industry and perhaps financial services – then the need to stage another poll would not have arisen.The crossroads Scotland faces, argues the first minister, is one it has been driven to by the consistent refusal of May “to move a single inch towards a compromise”. She insists that had there been any indication that the UK government would be open to a differentiated deal for Scotland – as it appears to have made deals with the car industry and perhaps financial services – then the need to stage another poll would not have arisen.
Sturgeon is acutely aware that a second referendum held between the autumn of 2018 and the spring of 2019 cannot be a re-run of 2014. She acknowledged in her speech that there would have to be not just clarity about the impact of Brexit on Scotland but also about the “challenges and opportunities” of independence.Sturgeon is acutely aware that a second referendum held between the autumn of 2018 and the spring of 2019 cannot be a re-run of 2014. She acknowledged in her speech that there would have to be not just clarity about the impact of Brexit on Scotland but also about the “challenges and opportunities” of independence.
And there are indeed many imponderables. The majority in Scotland who voted to remain in the EU cannot be assumed to be yes voters, any more than the tartan Brexiteers can be guaranteed to file into the no lobby.And there are indeed many imponderables. The majority in Scotland who voted to remain in the EU cannot be assumed to be yes voters, any more than the tartan Brexiteers can be guaranteed to file into the no lobby.
There will have been movement on both sides over the course of four years.There will have been movement on both sides over the course of four years.
But Sturgeon feels she has two powerful cards to play. In 2014 Scots were assured the only way to stay in Europe was to vote No to independence. And, with Labour’s near-death experience in Scotland and consistently poor polling in England, she can suggest to the Scottish electorate that they are in for 20 years of rightwing Tory government if they don’t take their destiny into their own hands.But Sturgeon feels she has two powerful cards to play. In 2014 Scots were assured the only way to stay in Europe was to vote No to independence. And, with Labour’s near-death experience in Scotland and consistently poor polling in England, she can suggest to the Scottish electorate that they are in for 20 years of rightwing Tory government if they don’t take their destiny into their own hands.