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Scottish independence: why a second vote is back on the table Scottish independence: why a second vote is back on the table
(about 7 hours later)
Nicola Sturgeon’s speech at Bute House on Monday is expected to be her last warning shot to Theresa May: give Scotland, which voted strongly in favour of remaining in the EU by 62% to 38%, special access to the EU single market and substantial new powers or face a second Scottish independence referendum. Nicola Sturgeon’s speech at Bute House on Monday in effect challenged Theresa May to give Scotland, which voted in favour of remaining in the EU by 62% to 38%, special access to the single market and substantial new powers or face a second Scottish independence referendum.
Why is the first minister doing this?Why is the first minister doing this?
Sturgeon argues last year’s Scottish National party election manifesto gives her a mandate to press for a new independence vote if “a significant or material change” in Scotland’s constitutional position occurred, such as the rest of the UK voting to leave the EU while Scotland voted to stay. Sturgeon argued that last year’s Scottish National party election manifesto gives her a mandate to press for a new independence vote if “a significant or material change” in Scotland’s constitutional position occurred, such as the rest of the UK voting to leave the EU while Scotland voted to stay.
She is speaking at the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh rather than this weekend’s SNP spring conference in Aberdeen because she needs to appeal to pro-EU Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters, who could prefer independence in Europe to Brexit to ensure she can win a referendum. She spoke at the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh rather than this weekend’s SNP spring conference in Aberdeen because she needs to appeal to pro-EU Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters, who could prefer independence in Europe to Brexit, to ensure she can win a referendum.
Sturgeon believes the imminent decision by May’s government in London to invoke article 50, perhaps as early as Tuesday, gives her a strong opportunity to set the political agenda in Scotland. Sturgeon believes the imminent decision by May’s government in London to invoke article 50 gives her a strong opportunity to set the political agenda in Scotland.
What do the polls show?What do the polls show?
The latest opinion polls have mixed messages for Sturgeon. They show a recent rise in support for independence from 45% up to 49% excluding don’t knows. In statistical terms, no and yes are in effect neck and neck. The latest opinion polls have mixed messages for Sturgeon. They show a recent rise in support for independence from 45% up to 49%, excluding don’t knows. In statistical terms, no and yes are in effect neck and neck.
The polls also show about a third of SNP voters backed leave in the EU referendum. Sturgeon needs to persuade a large majority of them to back independence in Europe but also attract non-nationalist voters to back it to be sure of winning.The polls also show about a third of SNP voters backed leave in the EU referendum. Sturgeon needs to persuade a large majority of them to back independence in Europe but also attract non-nationalist voters to back it to be sure of winning.
The polls also show a majority of Scottish voters object to a referendum before the UK leaves the EU, because they need to know what they are voting for and against. Sturgeon therefore has to justify any decision to stage one before Brexit.The polls also show a majority of Scottish voters object to a referendum before the UK leaves the EU, because they need to know what they are voting for and against. Sturgeon therefore has to justify any decision to stage one before Brexit.
What is the constitutional position?What is the constitutional position?
The Scottish parliament does not have the authority to stage a vote under the UK’s referendum legislation. It must get Westminster’s approval under a section 30 order of the Scotland Act to do so. The UK and Scottish governments will need to sign a second Edinburgh agreement, which in 2012 set up the 2014 independence referendum. Sturgeon acknowledged the Scottish parliament does not have the legal authority to stage a poll under the UK’s referendum legislation. She plans to ask for Holyrood’s backing next week to seek that approval under a section 30 order of the Scotland Act. She expects to command a narrow majority if all six Scottish Green MSPs vote alongside the 63 SNP members.
That will trigger a battle over its timing, whether before or after Brexit, the wording of the question or indeed whether a third option, such as Labour and Lib Dem quests for a federal UK, could be added. The question and process will then need to be agreed and overseen by the Electoral Commission. The UK and Scottish governments will then need to sign a second “Edinburgh agreement” which in 2012 set up the 2014 independence referendum, before asking the Electoral Commission to adjudicate on the question to be set. Sturgeon said on Monday she favoured retaining the single “yes” or “no” question from September 2014: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” But there will be strong pressure to adopt the method used in the 2016 EU referendum, to present two “leave” or “remain” options such as should Scotland leave the UK or remain in the UK?
But the bigger question of when and how an independent Scotland could join the EU or retain its membership is uncertain: there is no precedent for part of a member state retaining membership when the member state leaves. The EU may insist it cannot start considering a Scottish bid until after Brexit so it knows what terms Scotland is joining under. These talks will trigger a major battle over the vote’s timing, on whether the referendum should happen before or after Brexit, or indeed whether a third option, such as Labour and Lib Dem demands for a federal UK, could be added.
What will the EU say and do?
The bigger question of when and how an independent Scotland could join the EU or retain its membership is extremely uncertain: there is no precedent for part of a member state retaining membership when the member state leaves.
The EU may insist it cannot start considering a Scottish bid until after Brexit, so it knows what terms Scotland is joining under because questions about cross-border trade, tariffs and access to UK waters will be key issues for other EU member states.
There will be disagreements in the EU. Many MEPs, including the European parliament’s Brexit chief Guy Verhofstadt and senior figures in key EU member states, have been openly sympathetic to Scotland’s pro-European stance.
Despite Sturgeon’s belief that winning a pre-Brexit referendum will smooth an independent Scotland’s transition to rejoining the single market in some form, the European commission is sticking to its stance in 2014 that an application can only be made once Scotland has fully left the UK – a process that could take several years.
What about the economics?What about the economics?
Scotland’s financial position is worse than it was in 2014. The collapse in oil prices increased the public spending deficit last year to £15bn, or more than 20% of annual government spending; Scotland’s economy is growing more slowly than the UK’s and its exports to the rest of the EU are not growing as fast as to the rest of the UK.Scotland’s financial position is worse than it was in 2014. The collapse in oil prices increased the public spending deficit last year to £15bn, or more than 20% of annual government spending; Scotland’s economy is growing more slowly than the UK’s and its exports to the rest of the EU are not growing as fast as to the rest of the UK.
Sturgeon has to answer critical questions on which currency Scotland would use and whether it will need to accept the euro in future; on setting up a new central bank; on tackling its massive deficit; on repaying Scotland’s share of the UK’s £1.7tn debt, and on how it can have free trade on equal terms simultaneously with the UK and the EU. Sturgeon has to answer critical questions on which currency Scotland would use and whether it will need to accept the euro in future; on setting up a new central bank; on tackling its massive deficit; on repaying Scotland’s share of the UK’s £1.7tn debt; and on how it can have free trade on equal terms simultaneously with the UK and the EU.
Much will rest on the shape of the UK’s Brexit deal with the EU. Sturgeon is already pointing to the far more favourable open border deal on the cards for the Republic of Ireland. She will argue it would clearly be in the UK’s interests to agree the same with Scotland. Much will rest on the shape of the UK’s Brexit deal with the EU. Sturgeon pointed on Monday at the favourable open border deal on the cards for the Republic of Ireland, which has been underpinned by a common travel area deal for decades.
“There’s absolutely no reason that would or should change if Scotland became an independent country,” she said on Monday. Sturgeon added that if May is confident the UK will have free trade deals with all its trading partners post-Brexit, Scotland would also expect one too.