Standup chancellor shuns sit-down with Tyrie

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/12/standup-chancellor-declines-committee-sit-down-tyrie

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Tradition has it that, the week after the budget, the Treasury select committee gives the chancellor of the exchequer a good grilling about his sums.

Not this time. Having already broken convention by abolishing future spring budgets and then using his final one to deliver a few gags (“they don’t call it the last Labour government for nothing”), Philip Hammond will be spared from explaining himself to Andrew Tyrie and co this week.

Instead, the committee will play host to Robert Chote, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility on Monday, plus a couple of his sidekicks, before Tuesday brings an appearance by Paul Johnson, the boss of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank.

So, despite his first budget unravelling politically, we will all have to wait until after Easter for Hammond to show. Probably. In another of his zingers, the chancellor told the Commons: “Twenty four-years ago Norman Lamont also presented what was billed then as ‘the last spring budget’. The then prime minister described it as the ‘right budget, at the right time, from the right chancellor’. Ten weeks later, he was sacked!”

Or, as the chancellor’s on-form joke writers might now put it: “They didn’t call it Hammond’s last spring budget for nothing.”

Economists could be right for once

Perhaps the only indicator pointing to the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged this week is the apparent total confidence among economists that there will be a rate increase.

As is often said, an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today. But maybe this week is one of those rare occasions when they all get things right.

Following strong US jobs data on Friday, Oliver Kolodseike, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, is so certain there will be a US rate rise that he has begun looking forward to the rise after that.

“[With Friday’s job data] the Fed cleared the last small obstacle on its way to a now virtually certain interest rate rise [this] week,” he mused.

“Speculation will now turn to the future path of interest rates over the year. Markets will be closely scrutinising policymakers’ communication in coming weeks and months to gauge when and to what extent the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.” Their guesses will surely be on the money.

Will bookies fall at Cheltenham?

Tuesday marks the start of national hunt’s Cheltenham festival – the most important week of the year for the bookmakers (and brewers).

The week is always notable for its casualties – with horses falling at fences and the odd well-refreshed punter tumbling into them – but who gets hurt in the battle between the turf accountants and their customers is also closely watched.

Obviously, the bookies typically win, as the odd-setters have the twin advantages of mathematics and not being (quite so) kaylied. But every now and again favourites romp home all week, which can ruin the year for gambling investors.

After the 2016 festival, William Hill warned on profits following a shocking Cheltenham – while Ladbrokes did the same in 2013 – with both using the excuse that results in the west country had gone against them.

Yet in those same years, rivals seemed to clear those hurdles, despite the results being the same for everyone.

In reality, a Cheltenham profit warning tells you more about the health of the bookmaker than if favourites have won. So this week marks an early test for William Hill’s Philip Bowcock, named as the group’s new chief executive on Friday.