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This election was meant to be close, but Western Australia had no doubts This election was meant to be close, but Western Australia had no doubts
(about 7 hours later)
The state election in Western Australia was predicted to be close: Labor needed a large swing to tip out the Liberal-National Coalition government, which has led the state since 2008. It was anything but close. Labor easily gained the 10 seats it needed to form government, and looks likely to gain 10 more. The swing was massive in all parts of the state, with the Liberal vote dropping dramatically.The state election in Western Australia was predicted to be close: Labor needed a large swing to tip out the Liberal-National Coalition government, which has led the state since 2008. It was anything but close. Labor easily gained the 10 seats it needed to form government, and looks likely to gain 10 more. The swing was massive in all parts of the state, with the Liberal vote dropping dramatically.
The election was also disappointing for One Nation, whose polling a month ago suggested it was on track to easily win a swathe of upper house seats without the need for preferences, and possibly challenge for some rural lower house seats. The party polled 7% in the upper house – higher than any other minor party other than the Greens – but that will likely translate into only one or two seats on a large crossbench.The election was also disappointing for One Nation, whose polling a month ago suggested it was on track to easily win a swathe of upper house seats without the need for preferences, and possibly challenge for some rural lower house seats. The party polled 7% in the upper house – higher than any other minor party other than the Greens – but that will likely translate into only one or two seats on a large crossbench.
The Liberal swing was relatively constant across the state. The party suffered a statewide swing of almost 16%. The swing was worst in the south west, where Liberal candidates averaged swings of almost 18%. Swings in most urban seats were in the range of 14-17%. The swing against the Liberal candidate was over 23% in the regional seat of Bunbury, where the sitting member had retired.The Liberal swing was relatively constant across the state. The party suffered a statewide swing of almost 16%. The swing was worst in the south west, where Liberal candidates averaged swings of almost 18%. Swings in most urban seats were in the range of 14-17%. The swing against the Liberal candidate was over 23% in the regional seat of Bunbury, where the sitting member had retired.
There was a theory before election day that Labor was performing better in Liberal marginal seats, and thus could be expected to win with a smaller statewide swing than otherwise expected. It does appear that the anti-Liberal swing was most severe in their marginal seats. The anti-Liberal swing was 17.8% in seats with margins of less than 12%, but was only 14.8% in their safer seats.There was a theory before election day that Labor was performing better in Liberal marginal seats, and thus could be expected to win with a smaller statewide swing than otherwise expected. It does appear that the anti-Liberal swing was most severe in their marginal seats. The anti-Liberal swing was 17.8% in seats with margins of less than 12%, but was only 14.8% in their safer seats.
At the time of writing, Labor appears to have gained 20 seats from the Coalition, to add to the 20 it already had. This includes Darling Range and Murray-Wellington, held by the Liberal party by margins of 12% or more. It is likely that Labor has won the seat of Pilbara off the Nationals leader, Brendon Grylls.At the time of writing, Labor appears to have gained 20 seats from the Coalition, to add to the 20 it already had. This includes Darling Range and Murray-Wellington, held by the Liberal party by margins of 12% or more. It is likely that Labor has won the seat of Pilbara off the Nationals leader, Brendon Grylls.
There are a handful of seats left undecided. Labor’s Jessica Stojkovski leads by barely 300 votes in the seat of Kingsley, while Labor’s Yaz Mubarakai leads by only 26 votes in Jandakot. If Labor holds its lead in other close seats and wins those two seats, it will hold 42 seats in the 59-seat chamber.There are a handful of seats left undecided. Labor’s Jessica Stojkovski leads by barely 300 votes in the seat of Kingsley, while Labor’s Yaz Mubarakai leads by only 26 votes in Jandakot. If Labor holds its lead in other close seats and wins those two seats, it will hold 42 seats in the 59-seat chamber.
The seat of Kalgoorlie will be the hardest to unpick. The retirement of sitting Nationals MP Wendy Duncan left the seat wide open. We saw a swing of about 12% away from the Liberals and 9% away from the Nationals, with those votes mostly flowing to Labor and One Nation. This leaves the seat close to a three-way tie between Labor, Liberal and Nationals, with One Nation preferences deciding who makes it into the final two. It seems most likely that the Nationals’ Tony Crook will drop to third and elect the Liberal candidate with his preferences, but One Nation preferences are not easy to predict.The seat of Kalgoorlie will be the hardest to unpick. The retirement of sitting Nationals MP Wendy Duncan left the seat wide open. We saw a swing of about 12% away from the Liberals and 9% away from the Nationals, with those votes mostly flowing to Labor and One Nation. This leaves the seat close to a three-way tie between Labor, Liberal and Nationals, with One Nation preferences deciding who makes it into the final two. It seems most likely that the Nationals’ Tony Crook will drop to third and elect the Liberal candidate with his preferences, but One Nation preferences are not easy to predict.
The upper house is always a tough place for WA Labor, thanks to a system that is significantly biased towards more conservative rural areas, but it looks likely that Labor will be in a strong position in the upper house.The upper house is always a tough place for WA Labor, thanks to a system that is significantly biased towards more conservative rural areas, but it looks likely that Labor will be in a strong position in the upper house.
While the final seats will be unclear for some time, the Liberal party has consistently lost seats in every upper house region, with Labor and the Greens between them coming close to winning half of the seats in the chamber.While the final seats will be unclear for some time, the Liberal party has consistently lost seats in every upper house region, with Labor and the Greens between them coming close to winning half of the seats in the chamber.
Numerous minor parties, including One Nation, the Shooters, the Daylight Savings Party, Fluoride Free WA and the Liberal Democrats, are in with a shot at winning upper house seats. This should result in a bigger and more diverse crossbench than we have seen in the federal Senate after the last two elections. Some of these parties are in with a shot of winning from a very low primary vote, thanks to the preference system that was used for the Senate before last year’s reforms. There will be a lot of pressure on the new state government to look at similar reforms for WA’s upper house, as well as interest in equalising the size of upper house regions to remove the regional bias.Numerous minor parties, including One Nation, the Shooters, the Daylight Savings Party, Fluoride Free WA and the Liberal Democrats, are in with a shot at winning upper house seats. This should result in a bigger and more diverse crossbench than we have seen in the federal Senate after the last two elections. Some of these parties are in with a shot of winning from a very low primary vote, thanks to the preference system that was used for the Senate before last year’s reforms. There will be a lot of pressure on the new state government to look at similar reforms for WA’s upper house, as well as interest in equalising the size of upper house regions to remove the regional bias.
Beyond Western Australia, this is an encouraging sign for Labor after coming close to winning last year’s federal election. One Nation has struggled to hold its early polling highs, and unable to keep its candidates disciplined and united in the face of public attention. This could be themes that could recur at the Queensland election, due some time in the next year. Beyond Western Australia, this is an encouraging sign for Labor after coming close to winning last year’s federal election. One Nation has struggled to hold its early polling highs, and unable to keep its candidates disciplined and united in the face of public attention. These themes could recur at the Queensland election, due some time in the next year.