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Dutch Greens Make Inroads Days Before Vote for Parliament Dutch Greens Make Inroads Days Before Vote for Parliament
(about 2 hours later)
AMSTERDAM — In the final days before next week’s parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, the far-right leader’s support appeared to be softening and a previously minor party, the Greens, led by a charismatic young politician, was poised to become one of the two top parties on the left.AMSTERDAM — In the final days before next week’s parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, the far-right leader’s support appeared to be softening and a previously minor party, the Greens, led by a charismatic young politician, was poised to become one of the two top parties on the left.
But there is little consensus among Dutch voters about what sort of government they want, and multiple polls show that at least five parties could be within a few seats of each other once the results are in.But there is little consensus among Dutch voters about what sort of government they want, and multiple polls show that at least five parties could be within a few seats of each other once the results are in.
“Currently, we have a not-so-normal situation,” said Maurice de Hond, a pollster who has been tracking Dutch politics for 40 years and who, like everyone interviewed, described the electorate as “fragmented.”“Currently, we have a not-so-normal situation,” said Maurice de Hond, a pollster who has been tracking Dutch politics for 40 years and who, like everyone interviewed, described the electorate as “fragmented.”
Sarah de Lange, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, described the picture as “extremely fragmented, to an extent that we have not seen before in the Netherlands.”Sarah de Lange, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, described the picture as “extremely fragmented, to an extent that we have not seen before in the Netherlands.”
That suggests a level of discomfort with the current government and little unity on which way to go, said another pollster, Frank van Dalen.That suggests a level of discomfort with the current government and little unity on which way to go, said another pollster, Frank van Dalen.
In Wednesday’s elections, about 12 parties are likely to win at least one seat in the 150-seat Parliament. The Dutch Parliament has two chambers; this election is for seats in the House of Representatives, which has the lead role in writing legislation.In Wednesday’s elections, about 12 parties are likely to win at least one seat in the 150-seat Parliament. The Dutch Parliament has two chambers; this election is for seats in the House of Representatives, which has the lead role in writing legislation.
It takes a simple majority, or 76 seats, to form a government.It takes a simple majority, or 76 seats, to form a government.
For at least the last century, no single party has won a majority, and the government has been formed by coalitions of two or three parties.For at least the last century, no single party has won a majority, and the government has been formed by coalitions of two or three parties.
This time, it is likely to take a coalition of four or five parties to reach the 76 seats needed to form a government.This time, it is likely to take a coalition of four or five parties to reach the 76 seats needed to form a government.
A decline in support for the far-right leader, Geert Wilders, whose populist, anti-Muslim and anti-European Union message had won him much notoriety, means that he is unlikely to be part of the next government. Short of winning the most votes, he does not have the clout to call the shots, and other parties refuse to work with him.A decline in support for the far-right leader, Geert Wilders, whose populist, anti-Muslim and anti-European Union message had won him much notoriety, means that he is unlikely to be part of the next government. Short of winning the most votes, he does not have the clout to call the shots, and other parties refuse to work with him.
This is a pattern with Mr. Wilders, Mr. van Dalen said: He scores well in the polls before an election, but he does not perform as well once voters cast their ballots. A vote for him — and for a handful of other small parties — is effectively a protest vote.This is a pattern with Mr. Wilders, Mr. van Dalen said: He scores well in the polls before an election, but he does not perform as well once voters cast their ballots. A vote for him — and for a handful of other small parties — is effectively a protest vote.
But Mr. van Dalen, who studies long-term voting trends, cautioned against treating polls as if they were results. In the Netherlands, many voters do not decide until just before an election. As of two weeks ago, 50 to 60 percent of eligible voters were undecided, Ms. de Lange said.But Mr. van Dalen, who studies long-term voting trends, cautioned against treating polls as if they were results. In the Netherlands, many voters do not decide until just before an election. As of two weeks ago, 50 to 60 percent of eligible voters were undecided, Ms. de Lange said.
A striking change this time is the disintegration of the mainstream, left-leaning Labor Party, which for years has been in the government. Because the Labor Party has been willing to work with the conservatives, it appeared to its supporters to have deserted its principles.A striking change this time is the disintegration of the mainstream, left-leaning Labor Party, which for years has been in the government. Because the Labor Party has been willing to work with the conservatives, it appeared to its supporters to have deserted its principles.
The lesson of Labor’s decline is not lost on either the Greens or D66, the leading party on the left.The lesson of Labor’s decline is not lost on either the Greens or D66, the leading party on the left.
Those parties will be reluctant to work with the mainstream right-wing party that is likely to win the most votes because “they saw what happened to Labor and they don’t want it to happen to them,” Mr. van Dalen said.Those parties will be reluctant to work with the mainstream right-wing party that is likely to win the most votes because “they saw what happened to Labor and they don’t want it to happen to them,” Mr. van Dalen said.
Two charismatic politicians bear watching in this election. On the right, Sybrand Buma is a straight-talking leader of the Christian Democrats. Mr. Buma’s party was in power for many years, fell out of favor, but now is experiencing a revival with a message that plays to members of the ethnic Dutch majority who are keen to preserve Dutch traditions and limit immigration.Two charismatic politicians bear watching in this election. On the right, Sybrand Buma is a straight-talking leader of the Christian Democrats. Mr. Buma’s party was in power for many years, fell out of favor, but now is experiencing a revival with a message that plays to members of the ethnic Dutch majority who are keen to preserve Dutch traditions and limit immigration.
On the left, Jesse Klaver, 30, appears ready to transform the Greens from a minor player into a party that can potentially play a powerful role. He has been reaching out to young people who have had little interest in politics. On the left, Jesse Klaver, 30, appears ready to transform the Green Left party, or the Greens, from a minor player into a party that can potentially play a powerful role. He has been reaching out to young people who have had little interest in politics.
His constituency appears to be young, mostly urban and white, judging by his final campaign rally on Thursday. Mr. Klaver comes across as earnest but confident as he tries to bridge the traditional divide between left and right.His constituency appears to be young, mostly urban and white, judging by his final campaign rally on Thursday. Mr. Klaver comes across as earnest but confident as he tries to bridge the traditional divide between left and right.
“What we want to do is fight populism,” Mr. Klaver said. “Every conversation I have with voters starts with Islam and Muslims, and then it goes to housing, their income and health care.”“What we want to do is fight populism,” Mr. Klaver said. “Every conversation I have with voters starts with Islam and Muslims, and then it goes to housing, their income and health care.”
“The traditional parties are not winning elections anymore,” he added. “A lot of people are disappointed in politics. What we want to do with Greens is be an alternative for the center parties. But this is not an alternative built with fear and hate, but an alternative built on ideals and hope and optimism.”“The traditional parties are not winning elections anymore,” he added. “A lot of people are disappointed in politics. What we want to do with Greens is be an alternative for the center parties. But this is not an alternative built with fear and hate, but an alternative built on ideals and hope and optimism.”