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German factory orders slide; UK house price growth hits 3.5 year low – business live Bank of England deputy governor breached code of conduct - business live
(35 minutes later)
12.38pm GMT
12:38
Tory MP Kit Malthouse is concerned that the Bank of England doesn’t know exactly what Quintin Hogg does at Barclays.
He could even be targeted with handling Barclay’s strategy towards the Bank of England, Malthouse suggests.
We could find out, Habgood concedes. But even if that were the case, he thinks it wouldn’t have affected Charlotte Hogg’s suitability to be deputy governor.
12.36pm GMT
12:36
Now the committee ask about social ties between the top brass at the Bank of England.
Court chairman Anthony Habgood insists that he’s had no social interaction with Charlotte Hogg -- beyond one trip to “somrthing to do with ballet for youthful people”.
I didn’t know here until just before I came to the bank.
But Habgood then reveals other ties to the Hogg dynasty.
I know her mother better than I know her because she’s been chairman of various things when I’ve been chairman of various things.
Charlotte Hogg’s mother is Sarah Hogg, the first woman to chair a FTSE 100 company (3i, back in 2002). She’s married to Douglas Martin Hogg, son of the late Lord Hailsham, and a former Tory MP (until his expenses claim for moat-cleaning came to light...)
12.27pm GMT
12:27
Fried adds:
Anthony [Habgood]and I are fans of Charlotte. We think she’s a distinctive professional.
12.25pm GMT
12:25
Conservative MP Kit Malthouse wants to know what the Court of the Bank of England (the board of the central bank) is going to do about Hogg’s breach of the code.
Deputy chairman Bradley Fried says the situation will be discussed.
Clearly we have an issue now around optics. We hope that it can be resolved.
It’s not an issue how we feel individually. We will discuss it in full Court.
Chairman Anthony Habgood then weighs in, saying they don’t expect to recommend reversing Hogg’s appointment as deputy governor of the BoE.
Why not, asks Tyrie?
Because the process of having Hogg’s line manager (Mark Carney), and the head of HR looking into the issue has been concluded, Habgood explains.
Updated
at 12.26pm GMT
12.19pm GMT
12:19
Earlier in this hearing, deputy court chairman Bradley Fried said Hogg had committed an “unwillful act of omission.”
Bloomberg has the details:
“I definitely don’t believe it’s a hanging offence,” Fried told Parliament Tuesday.
“It’s terribly unfortunate. It warrants grumpiness.”
Scandal, british-stylehttps://t.co/VklCR2PVz1 by @fergalob pic.twitter.com/Uh6yIRI9vX
12.17pm GMT
12:17
12.16pm GMT
12:16
Anthony Habgood says he has discussed the situation with governor Mark Carney -- apparently it was a “revelation” to Carney that Charlotte Hogg hadn’t declared her brother’s role at Barclays.
12.13pm GMT
12:13
Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie wants more answers from BoE chairman Anthony Habgood.
Q: How many breaches of the Bank’s code of conduct are there?
Habgood doesn’t know.
I think it might be helpful to know, Tyrie points out.
Q: What are the sanctions for failing to make a voluntary declaration?
It depends on the seriousness of it, Habgood says.
In most cases, he’d expect that the line manager and the HR department would speak to the individual and take a view.
Q: So why didn’t Charlotte Hogg declare her brother’s role as a Barclays strategy director when she was hired as chief operating officer in 2013?
Habgood insists that it wasn’t a “wilful” decision.
He suggests that Hogg didn’t feel that her brother was in a position where it mattered - which was a mistake as she she shouldn’t take that decision.
It was also an issue of priorities but it should have been high up her list of priorities as Charlotte Hogg helped develop the codes, Habgood points out...
12.00pm GMT12.00pm GMT
12:0012:00
Labour MP John Mann is now laying into the Bank of England’s top brass -- comparing Charlotte Hogg’s conduct to MPs who were jailed in the expenses scandal.Labour MP John Mann is now laying into the Bank of England’s top brass -- comparing Charlotte Hogg’s conduct to MPs who were jailed in the expenses scandal.
The standards of public life are about ethics and public responsibility, Mann insists.The standards of public life are about ethics and public responsibility, Mann insists.
He demands to know who is going to “sanction” Hogg for not declaring her brother’s role at Barclays back in 2013.He demands to know who is going to “sanction” Hogg for not declaring her brother’s role at Barclays back in 2013.
Mann tells BoE Court chairman Anthony Habgood that:Mann tells BoE Court chairman Anthony Habgood that:
She’s broken the standards in public life....and you’ve done nothing about it....She’s broken the standards in public life....and you’ve done nothing about it....
You must see that the independence of the Court is being brought into question.You must see that the independence of the Court is being brought into question.
Habgood says any sanction is the responsibility of her line manager, governor Mark Carney.Habgood says any sanction is the responsibility of her line manager, governor Mark Carney.
And he points out that Hogg did declare her brother’s role to the committee in her written submission last month (it’s online here). The problem, though, is that she didn’t declare it back in 2013 when she joined the Bank.And he points out that Hogg did declare her brother’s role to the committee in her written submission last month (it’s online here). The problem, though, is that she didn’t declare it back in 2013 when she joined the Bank.
Habgood says:Habgood says:
The standard is broken, that is correct.The standard is broken, that is correct.
But he argues that this isn’t a ‘black and white’ issue -- the Court must consider a range of factors (Hogg is highly regarded at the BoE). And there is definitely no personal gain here, Habgood insists.But he argues that this isn’t a ‘black and white’ issue -- the Court must consider a range of factors (Hogg is highly regarded at the BoE). And there is definitely no personal gain here, Habgood insists.
11.49am GMT11.49am GMT
11:4911:49
The Treasury Committee are laying into the Bank of England’s top brass over Charlotte Hogg’s failure to declare that her brother works for Barclays.The Treasury Committee are laying into the Bank of England’s top brass over Charlotte Hogg’s failure to declare that her brother works for Barclays.
Jacob Rees-Mogg (who knows a thing or two about high society), is challenging the idea that there hasn’t been a conflict of interest, actual or potential.Jacob Rees-Mogg (who knows a thing or two about high society), is challenging the idea that there hasn’t been a conflict of interest, actual or potential.
There aren’t a lot of people in the City called Quintin Hogg, points out Rees-Mogg.There aren’t a lot of people in the City called Quintin Hogg, points out Rees-Mogg.
He adds:He adds:
What’s worrying me is that the bank and the Court is pretty complacent about this.What’s worrying me is that the bank and the Court is pretty complacent about this.
It can’t have been wrong because we wouldn’t have behaved like that.It can’t have been wrong because we wouldn’t have behaved like that.
We won’t investigate it - we’ll just say there’s no conflict because the brother’s probably like us, he’s another good chap.We won’t investigate it - we’ll just say there’s no conflict because the brother’s probably like us, he’s another good chap.
Rees-Mogg is also unimpressed that Anthony Habgood doesn’t seem to actually know what Hogg. Q does at Barclays.Rees-Mogg is also unimpressed that Anthony Habgood doesn’t seem to actually know what Hogg. Q does at Barclays.
Deputy chairman Bradley Fried hits back at the suggestion that the Bank is a cushy institution where family background counts for a lot. We’re a “deeply forensic, fact-based institution” he insists.Deputy chairman Bradley Fried hits back at the suggestion that the Bank is a cushy institution where family background counts for a lot. We’re a “deeply forensic, fact-based institution” he insists.
11.28am GMT11.28am GMT
11:2811:28
Oh brother.... BoE deputy governor apologises for breaching Bank codeOh brother.... BoE deputy governor apologises for breaching Bank code
Now this is awkward....Now this is awkward....
Charlotte Hogg, the newly appointed deputy governor of the Bank of England, has admitted that she failed to disclose that her brother works for Barclays Bank.Charlotte Hogg, the newly appointed deputy governor of the Bank of England, has admitted that she failed to disclose that her brother works for Barclays Bank.
It’s a clear, and highly embarrassing, breach of the BoE’s code of conduct.It’s a clear, and highly embarrassing, breach of the BoE’s code of conduct.
Last month, Hogg told MPs Treasury Committee that she had reported her brother’s role as a strategy director at Barclays to the Bank, when she joined as its chief operating officer in 2013.Last month, Hogg told MPs Treasury Committee that she had reported her brother’s role as a strategy director at Barclays to the Bank, when she joined as its chief operating officer in 2013.
But now, in a letter to the Treasury Committee released this morning, Hogg admits that she didn’t.But now, in a letter to the Treasury Committee released this morning, Hogg admits that she didn’t.
Here’s the key section:Here’s the key section:
During my appointment hearing on 28 February 2017,1 was asked by you and other members of the Committee about my brother’s role as Director, Group Strategy at Barclays Bank pic.During my appointment hearing on 28 February 2017,1 was asked by you and other members of the Committee about my brother’s role as Director, Group Strategy at Barclays Bank pic.
Following my hearing, I checked the Bank’s records of the interests and relationships that I had declared prior to joining the Bank in July 2013 and subsequently. I had not formally declared my brother’s role at Barclays Bank pic to the Bank. The first time that I formally outlined my brother’s role was when I noted it in the questionnaire which I submitted to the Committee in advance of my recent hearing.Following my hearing, I checked the Bank’s records of the interests and relationships that I had declared prior to joining the Bank in July 2013 and subsequently. I had not formally declared my brother’s role at Barclays Bank pic to the Bank. The first time that I formally outlined my brother’s role was when I noted it in the questionnaire which I submitted to the Committee in advance of my recent hearing.
As Barclays Bank pic is regulated by the PRA, under the Bank’s internal code of conduct and personal relationships policy, I should have formally declared my brother’s role when I first joined the Bank. I did not do so and I take full responsibility for this oversight. I have now added a full record of my brother’s role in the Bank’s HR systems.As Barclays Bank pic is regulated by the PRA, under the Bank’s internal code of conduct and personal relationships policy, I should have formally declared my brother’s role when I first joined the Bank. I did not do so and I take full responsibility for this oversight. I have now added a full record of my brother’s role in the Bank’s HR systems.
Regrettably, my oversight means that my oral evidence to the Committee in this respect was not accurate. I write now to correct that evidence at the earliest opportunity and to place on record my sincere apologies to the Committee.Regrettably, my oversight means that my oral evidence to the Committee in this respect was not accurate. I write now to correct that evidence at the earliest opportunity and to place on record my sincere apologies to the Committee.
Hogg adds that the Secretary of the Bank and the Chaiman of the Bank’s Court of Directors, Anthony Habgood, agree that there has not been any actual or potential conflict of interest.Hogg adds that the Secretary of the Bank and the Chaiman of the Bank’s Court of Directors, Anthony Habgood, agree that there has not been any actual or potential conflict of interest.
But Andrew Tyrie, the chair of the Treasury committee, isn’t impressed at all.But Andrew Tyrie, the chair of the Treasury committee, isn’t impressed at all.
He’s quizzing Habgood about the issue now in parliament.He’s quizzing Habgood about the issue now in parliament.
Tyrie argues that this relationship becomes a “much more serious issue” now that Hogg has been promoted to deputy governor.Tyrie argues that this relationship becomes a “much more serious issue” now that Hogg has been promoted to deputy governor.
And doesn’t this breach show how seriously the Bank does (or doesn’t) take its approach to compliance?And doesn’t this breach show how seriously the Bank does (or doesn’t) take its approach to compliance?
Habgood agrees that this is “a very serious breach” of the Bank’s compliance code....Habgood agrees that this is “a very serious breach” of the Bank’s compliance code....
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.46am GMTat 11.46am GMT
10.52am GMT
10:52
Economics blogger Tim Worstall has a good take on the German factory orders decline, on Forbes.
Here’s a flavour:
Reading too much into just the one month’s numbers is not a sensible thing to be doing so the answer to that headline question, as Betteridge’s Law says it should be, is probably no. However, when matters do turn against the German economy this is the sort of thing that we would expect to see.
We all know, or at least we all should know, that the German economy is rather different from those of other advanced countries. It has about double the manufacturing of those others and that manufacturing is rather more concentrated into durable goods than most others.
It’s thus vulnerable to a slow down in investment in other economies...
More here:
Are The Wheels Coming Off The German Bus? Factory Orders Down 7.4% In One Month, Worst Since Crash https://t.co/WG9TRi2OR1
10.38am GMT
10:38
34 Budgens stores closing, 800 jobs to go
It’s a bad morning for hundreds of workers at Budgens stores across the country.
Some 34 Budgens stores are closing after administrators failed to find a buyer for their owner, Food Retailer Operations Limited (FROL). These stores employ around 815 workers.
However (and contrary to some reports), this doesn’t mean that the entire Budgens chain is toast. Instead, around 150 other outlets are still in business.
Charles Wilson, chief executive of Booker, told my colleague Julia Kollewe that:
“The business is performing very strongly.”
Budgens stores are usually run by independent retailers, while the brand is owned by Bookers -- which is being taken over by Tesco.
10.20am GMT
10:20
OECD hikes UK growth forecast
Breaking: The OECD thinktank has just become the latest organisation to admit that it overestimated the impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy.
The Paris-based group now expects Britain’s GDP to rise by 1.6% this year, up from 1.2% previously.
My colleague Katie Allen says it’s a boost to chancellor Philip Hammond ahead of tomorrow’s budget.
The new forecasts envisage the UK economy performing in line with the eurozone economy, where GDP is also expected to expand by 1.6% in 2017. The US economy, helped in part by an expected rise in spending under Donald Trump’s administration, is forecast to grow 2.4% this year.
The OECD still has concerns about the UK economy, and is warning that inflation will hurt growth.
More here:
OECD upgrades UK outlook but warns of inflation biting, and sees vulnerabilities in global economy https://t.co/nvjirpL43g
Updated
at 10.54am GMT
10.07am GMT
10:07
House price growth slows - what the experts say
The news that UK house price growth has hit its lowest level since July 2013 has disappointed some economists.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight predicts that the market will be muted in 2017:
February’s slight rise in house prices reported by the Halifax fuels our belief that house price gains over 2017 will be no more than 3% and could well be less. Weakening consumer fundamentals, likely mounting caution over making major spending decisions, and elevated house price to earnings ratios are likely to weigh down on house prices. However, a shortage of supply is likely to put a hard floor under prices.
Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, says potential buyers are being cautious:
“Halifax’s latest data reflects the cautious nature of the market; with value sensitive buyers remaining committed to their moving plans, but only at the right price.
Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, doesn’t believe we’re heading for a crash:
“It’s too soon to make a call on whether the property market is cooling off. While it’s possible this is a sign of things to come demand is still so high and supply so lacking so I can’t see a dramatic slump on the horizon quite yet.
“Affordability is a major issue and if rising inflation means households are strapped for cash getting onto or moving up the ladder will be more difficult and that will impact prices. The changes to tax on rental properties have also meant more would-be landlords are holding back from buying too which has an effect.
Rob Weaver, Director of Investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, thinks the lack of housing supply will keep propping prices up.
“Despite continuing uncertainty, a buoyant jobs market, record low interest rates and the imbalance between high demand for homes and a severe shortage in supply continue to put upward pressure on prices.
9.32am GMT
09:32
Halifax: UK house price growth hits 3.5 year low
Britain’s house market appears to be weakening, with prices growing at their weakest rate in over three years.
Prices rose by an annual rate of 5.1% in the three months to February, according to the Halifax building society.
That’s down from 5.7% the previous month, and the weakest rate since July 2013.
In February alone, prices inched up by 0.1% - weaker than the 0.4% expected by City economists.
Halifax’s Martin Ellis predicts that price growth will keep falling, bringing it closer to wage growth.
Ellis says:
“A sustained period of house price growth in excess of pay rises has made it increasingly difficult for many to purchase a home.
This development, together with signs of reduced momentum in the jobs market and squeezed consumer spending power, is expected to curb house price growth during 2017.”
House price inflation drops to 5.1pc in Feb - lowest annual rate in four years. Halifax figs: pic.twitter.com/WbhPJyn1Wk
9.05am GMT
09:05
These factory orders numbers are rather weaker than other German data, points out Bloomberg:
Ifo’s business climate index improved in February amid strong activity in manufacturing and services, and unemployment continued to decline.
And last week, we got very decent PMI figures suggesting that German factories were ‘humming’ in March..
8.54am GMT
08:54
Even if you strip out orders for expensive transport equipment, German factories had a bad January:
The German orders series you should be looking at (excluding big ticket items): a sharp correction, albeit a one-off? pic.twitter.com/ckm1EavP1W
8.38am GMT
08:38
German factory orders slide - what the experts say
Financial analysts are concerned by the scale of the drop in German factory orders at the start of 2017.
Carsten Brzeski at ING says the 7.4% slide is “almost unprecedented”,
“Today’s disappointing data is also a good reminder that the German industry is having more problems returning to full speed than buoyant sentiment indicators have been suggesting”.
Fred Ducrozet of Swiss bank Pictet points out that demand for large machinery and expensive equipment (known as capital goods) fell particularly rapidly
Bad news: German factory orders plummeted by 7.4% MoM in January.Worse: domestic orders for capital goods -16.8% MoM (after +14.3%).
Claus Vistesen of Pantheon says the figures are ‘horrible’, but doesn’t want to read too much into a single month’s data.
Germany #FactoryOrders in January "Horrible, but too volatile in m/m guise to many any firm conclusions." @ClausVistesen #PantheonMacro
Andreas Wallström of Nordea Markets provides more context:
Yet no signs of a global manufacturing upswing if we look at German and Swedish data. Order intakes in Germany down 7% m/m in January pic.twitter.com/areoaTPEov
8.16am GMT
08:16
German factory orders fall at fastest rate in eight years
Germany’s manufacturing sector has suffered a surprisingly sharp fall in orders, raising concerns that its economy may not be as robust as thought.
Orders for German factory goods plunged by 7.4% in January, compared to December.
That’s much worse than the 2.5% drop which analysts expected.
German 'Factory Orders' slump in January; ;largest month-on-month decline since January 2009 . . . pic.twitter.com/VS5Yu95B0H
The dropoff appears to have been driven by a decline in orders within Germany itself. This domestic demand fell by 10.5%.
Foreign orders slid by 4.9% -- including a 7.8% fall in demand from the euro zone. That’s not a great signal for the euro area, which had shown signs of more robust growth recently.
We shouldn’t read TOO much into one month’s data -- especially as the German factory orders report is notoriously volatile...
Germany’s finance ministry is urging calm, saying:
“The weak start to the year should be manageable.
Business confidence in manufacturing is significantly brighter than the long-term average, so that a revival in manufacturing can still be expected.”
I’ll pull together more reaction now....
Updated
at 8.44am GMT
7.56am GMT
07:56
The agenda: UK retail sales slowdown
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Consumer spending has been propping the UK economy up since last summer’s EU referendum. But there are now signs that the retail sector is feeling a chill.
A new survey this morning shows that retail sales slid by 0.2% in the three months to February, compared with a year earlier. Non-food sales are dropping for the first time in five years, suggesting consumers are tightening their belts as the economy slows.
Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium, which compiled the report, warns:
“Tougher times are expected ahead. The impact of inflation on consumer spending will add further intensity to an already fiercely competitive environment in which the ability to adapt and innovate will be key to survival.”
Faced with slowing sales, retailers are now pleading with the government to rethink its business rates changes - perhaps as soon as in tomorrow’s Budget?
Also coming up today.....
We get a new healthcheck on the global economy at 10am GMT, with the latest forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The car industry has flocked to Geneva for the annual Motor Show, where they’ll be showing off new models and concept cars.
Closer to home, Vauxhall car workers will be thinking about the future after being sold by General Motors yesterday. PSA Group, their new owners, has promised that job cuts aren’t inevitable. But although Vauxhall’s two UK plants are relatively efficient, they could still lose out.
My colleague Graham Ruddick explains:
Vauxhall’s factories in Ellesmere Port and Luton will have to battle with Peugeot, Citroën, and Opel plants across Europe to win the right to produce vehicles beyond 2021.
The future of Vauxhall’s sites is secure until then because PSA Group, which has bought Vauxhall and Opel from General Motors, has pledged to recognise existing production commitments. Ellesmere Port is scheduled to produce the Astra until 2021 while Luton will make the Vivaro van until 2025.
However, PSA will have to make a decision on where to produce the next-generation Astra from 2021 as early as next year, and Ellesmere Port faces a significant challenge to win the work and secure its survival....
More here:
European stock markets are expected to rally a little, pushing the FTSE 100 back towards last week’s record highs.
On the corporate news front, bookmaker Paddy Power, online food delivery form Just Eat and insurance firm Direct Line are reporting results.
And Halifax are scheduled to release their latest UK house price figures, at 8.30am GMT.
We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day...
Updated
at 8.11am GMT