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| German factory orders slide; UK house price growth hits 3.5 year low – business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.52am GMT | |
| 10:52 | |
| Economics blogger Tim Worstall has a good take on the German factory orders decline, on Forbes. | |
| Here’s a flavour: | |
| Reading too much into just the one month’s numbers is not a sensible thing to be doing so the answer to that headline question, as Betteridge’s Law says it should be, is probably no. However, when matters do turn against the German economy this is the sort of thing that we would expect to see. | |
| We all know, or at least we all should know, that the German economy is rather different from those of other advanced countries. It has about double the manufacturing of those others and that manufacturing is rather more concentrated into durable goods than most others. | |
| It’s thus vulnerable to a slow down in investment in other economies... | |
| More here: | |
| Are The Wheels Coming Off The German Bus? Factory Orders Down 7.4% In One Month, Worst Since Crash https://t.co/WG9TRi2OR1 | |
| 10.38am GMT | |
| 10:38 | |
| 34 Budgens stores closing, 800 jobs to go | |
| It’s a bad morning for hundreds of workers at Budgens stores across the country. | |
| Some 34 Budgens stores are closing after administrators failed to find a buyer for their owner, Food Retailer Operations Limited (FROL). These stores employ around 815 workers. | |
| However (and contrary to some reports), this doesn’t mean that the entire Budgens chain is toast. Instead, around 150 other outlets are still in business. | |
| Charles Wilson, chief executive of Booker, told my colleague Julia Kollewe that: | |
| “The business is performing very strongly.” | |
| Budgens stores are usually run by independent retailers, while the brand is owned by Bookers -- which is being taken over by Tesco. | |
| 10.20am GMT | |
| 10:20 | |
| OECD hikes UK growth forecast | |
| Breaking: The OECD thinktank has just become the latest organisation to admit that it overestimated the impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy. | |
| The Paris-based group now expects Britain’s GDP to rise by 1.6% this year, up from 1.2% previously. | |
| My colleague Katie Allen says it’s a boost to chancellor Philip Hammond ahead of tomorrow’s budget. | |
| The new forecasts envisage the UK economy performing in line with the eurozone economy, where GDP is also expected to expand by 1.6% in 2017. The US economy, helped in part by an expected rise in spending under Donald Trump’s administration, is forecast to grow 2.4% this year. | |
| The OECD still has concerns about the UK economy, and is warning that inflation will hurt growth. | |
| More here: | |
| OECD upgrades UK outlook but warns of inflation biting, and sees vulnerabilities in global economy https://t.co/nvjirpL43g | |
| Updated | |
| at 10.54am GMT | |
| 10.07am GMT | 10.07am GMT |
| 10:07 | 10:07 |
| House price growth slows - what the experts say | House price growth slows - what the experts say |
| The news that UK house price growth has hit its lowest level since July 2013 has disappointed some economists. | The news that UK house price growth has hit its lowest level since July 2013 has disappointed some economists. |
| Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight predicts that the market will be muted in 2017: | Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight predicts that the market will be muted in 2017: |
| February’s slight rise in house prices reported by the Halifax fuels our belief that house price gains over 2017 will be no more than 3% and could well be less. Weakening consumer fundamentals, likely mounting caution over making major spending decisions, and elevated house price to earnings ratios are likely to weigh down on house prices. However, a shortage of supply is likely to put a hard floor under prices. | February’s slight rise in house prices reported by the Halifax fuels our belief that house price gains over 2017 will be no more than 3% and could well be less. Weakening consumer fundamentals, likely mounting caution over making major spending decisions, and elevated house price to earnings ratios are likely to weigh down on house prices. However, a shortage of supply is likely to put a hard floor under prices. |
| Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, says potential buyers are being cautious: | Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, says potential buyers are being cautious: |
| “Halifax’s latest data reflects the cautious nature of the market; with value sensitive buyers remaining committed to their moving plans, but only at the right price. | “Halifax’s latest data reflects the cautious nature of the market; with value sensitive buyers remaining committed to their moving plans, but only at the right price. |
| Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, doesn’t believe we’re heading for a crash: | Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, doesn’t believe we’re heading for a crash: |
| “It’s too soon to make a call on whether the property market is cooling off. While it’s possible this is a sign of things to come demand is still so high and supply so lacking so I can’t see a dramatic slump on the horizon quite yet. | “It’s too soon to make a call on whether the property market is cooling off. While it’s possible this is a sign of things to come demand is still so high and supply so lacking so I can’t see a dramatic slump on the horizon quite yet. |
| “Affordability is a major issue and if rising inflation means households are strapped for cash getting onto or moving up the ladder will be more difficult and that will impact prices. The changes to tax on rental properties have also meant more would-be landlords are holding back from buying too which has an effect. | “Affordability is a major issue and if rising inflation means households are strapped for cash getting onto or moving up the ladder will be more difficult and that will impact prices. The changes to tax on rental properties have also meant more would-be landlords are holding back from buying too which has an effect. |
| Rob Weaver, Director of Investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, thinks the lack of housing supply will keep propping prices up. | Rob Weaver, Director of Investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, thinks the lack of housing supply will keep propping prices up. |
| “Despite continuing uncertainty, a buoyant jobs market, record low interest rates and the imbalance between high demand for homes and a severe shortage in supply continue to put upward pressure on prices. | “Despite continuing uncertainty, a buoyant jobs market, record low interest rates and the imbalance between high demand for homes and a severe shortage in supply continue to put upward pressure on prices. |
| 9.32am GMT | 9.32am GMT |
| 09:32 | 09:32 |
| Halifax: UK house price growth hits 3.5 year low | Halifax: UK house price growth hits 3.5 year low |
| Britain’s house market appears to be weakening, with prices growing at their weakest rate in over three years. | Britain’s house market appears to be weakening, with prices growing at their weakest rate in over three years. |
| Prices rose by an annual rate of 5.1% in the three months to February, according to the Halifax building society. | Prices rose by an annual rate of 5.1% in the three months to February, according to the Halifax building society. |
| That’s down from 5.7% the previous month, and the weakest rate since July 2013. | That’s down from 5.7% the previous month, and the weakest rate since July 2013. |
| In February alone, prices inched up by 0.1% - weaker than the 0.4% expected by City economists. | In February alone, prices inched up by 0.1% - weaker than the 0.4% expected by City economists. |
| Halifax’s Martin Ellis predicts that price growth will keep falling, bringing it closer to wage growth. | Halifax’s Martin Ellis predicts that price growth will keep falling, bringing it closer to wage growth. |
| Ellis says: | Ellis says: |
| “A sustained period of house price growth in excess of pay rises has made it increasingly difficult for many to purchase a home. | “A sustained period of house price growth in excess of pay rises has made it increasingly difficult for many to purchase a home. |
| This development, together with signs of reduced momentum in the jobs market and squeezed consumer spending power, is expected to curb house price growth during 2017.” | This development, together with signs of reduced momentum in the jobs market and squeezed consumer spending power, is expected to curb house price growth during 2017.” |
| House price inflation drops to 5.1pc in Feb - lowest annual rate in four years. Halifax figs: pic.twitter.com/WbhPJyn1Wk | House price inflation drops to 5.1pc in Feb - lowest annual rate in four years. Halifax figs: pic.twitter.com/WbhPJyn1Wk |
| 9.05am GMT | 9.05am GMT |
| 09:05 | 09:05 |
| These factory orders numbers are rather weaker than other German data, points out Bloomberg: | These factory orders numbers are rather weaker than other German data, points out Bloomberg: |
| Ifo’s business climate index improved in February amid strong activity in manufacturing and services, and unemployment continued to decline. | Ifo’s business climate index improved in February amid strong activity in manufacturing and services, and unemployment continued to decline. |
| And last week, we got very decent PMI figures suggesting that German factories were ‘humming’ in March.. | And last week, we got very decent PMI figures suggesting that German factories were ‘humming’ in March.. |
| 8.54am GMT | 8.54am GMT |
| 08:54 | 08:54 |
| Even if you strip out orders for expensive transport equipment, German factories had a bad January: | Even if you strip out orders for expensive transport equipment, German factories had a bad January: |
| The German orders series you should be looking at (excluding big ticket items): a sharp correction, albeit a one-off? pic.twitter.com/ckm1EavP1W | The German orders series you should be looking at (excluding big ticket items): a sharp correction, albeit a one-off? pic.twitter.com/ckm1EavP1W |
| 8.38am GMT | 8.38am GMT |
| 08:38 | 08:38 |
| German factory orders slide - what the experts say | German factory orders slide - what the experts say |
| Financial analysts are concerned by the scale of the drop in German factory orders at the start of 2017. | Financial analysts are concerned by the scale of the drop in German factory orders at the start of 2017. |
| Carsten Brzeski at ING says the 7.4% slide is “almost unprecedented”, | Carsten Brzeski at ING says the 7.4% slide is “almost unprecedented”, |
| “Today’s disappointing data is also a good reminder that the German industry is having more problems returning to full speed than buoyant sentiment indicators have been suggesting”. | “Today’s disappointing data is also a good reminder that the German industry is having more problems returning to full speed than buoyant sentiment indicators have been suggesting”. |
| Fred Ducrozet of Swiss bank Pictet points out that demand for large machinery and expensive equipment (known as capital goods) fell particularly rapidly | Fred Ducrozet of Swiss bank Pictet points out that demand for large machinery and expensive equipment (known as capital goods) fell particularly rapidly |
| Bad news: German factory orders plummeted by 7.4% MoM in January.Worse: domestic orders for capital goods -16.8% MoM (after +14.3%). | Bad news: German factory orders plummeted by 7.4% MoM in January.Worse: domestic orders for capital goods -16.8% MoM (after +14.3%). |
| Claus Vistesen of Pantheon says the figures are ‘horrible’, but doesn’t want to read too much into a single month’s data. | Claus Vistesen of Pantheon says the figures are ‘horrible’, but doesn’t want to read too much into a single month’s data. |
| Germany #FactoryOrders in January "Horrible, but too volatile in m/m guise to many any firm conclusions." @ClausVistesen #PantheonMacro | Germany #FactoryOrders in January "Horrible, but too volatile in m/m guise to many any firm conclusions." @ClausVistesen #PantheonMacro |
| Andreas Wallström of Nordea Markets provides more context: | Andreas Wallström of Nordea Markets provides more context: |
| Yet no signs of a global manufacturing upswing if we look at German and Swedish data. Order intakes in Germany down 7% m/m in January pic.twitter.com/areoaTPEov | Yet no signs of a global manufacturing upswing if we look at German and Swedish data. Order intakes in Germany down 7% m/m in January pic.twitter.com/areoaTPEov |
| 8.16am GMT | 8.16am GMT |
| 08:16 | 08:16 |
| German factory orders fall at fastest rate in eight years | German factory orders fall at fastest rate in eight years |
| Germany’s manufacturing sector has suffered a surprisingly sharp fall in orders, raising concerns that its economy may not be as robust as thought. | Germany’s manufacturing sector has suffered a surprisingly sharp fall in orders, raising concerns that its economy may not be as robust as thought. |
| Orders for German factory goods plunged by 7.4% in January, compared to December. | Orders for German factory goods plunged by 7.4% in January, compared to December. |
| That’s much worse than the 2.5% drop which analysts expected. | That’s much worse than the 2.5% drop which analysts expected. |
| German 'Factory Orders' slump in January; ;largest month-on-month decline since January 2009 . . . pic.twitter.com/VS5Yu95B0H | German 'Factory Orders' slump in January; ;largest month-on-month decline since January 2009 . . . pic.twitter.com/VS5Yu95B0H |
| The dropoff appears to have been driven by a decline in orders within Germany itself. This domestic demand fell by 10.5%. | The dropoff appears to have been driven by a decline in orders within Germany itself. This domestic demand fell by 10.5%. |
| Foreign orders slid by 4.9% -- including a 7.8% fall in demand from the euro zone. That’s not a great signal for the euro area, which had shown signs of more robust growth recently. | Foreign orders slid by 4.9% -- including a 7.8% fall in demand from the euro zone. That’s not a great signal for the euro area, which had shown signs of more robust growth recently. |
| We shouldn’t read TOO much into one month’s data -- especially as the German factory orders report is notoriously volatile... | We shouldn’t read TOO much into one month’s data -- especially as the German factory orders report is notoriously volatile... |
| Germany’s finance ministry is urging calm, saying: | Germany’s finance ministry is urging calm, saying: |
| “The weak start to the year should be manageable. | “The weak start to the year should be manageable. |
| Business confidence in manufacturing is significantly brighter than the long-term average, so that a revival in manufacturing can still be expected.” | Business confidence in manufacturing is significantly brighter than the long-term average, so that a revival in manufacturing can still be expected.” |
| I’ll pull together more reaction now.... | I’ll pull together more reaction now.... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.44am GMT | at 8.44am GMT |
| 7.56am GMT | 7.56am GMT |
| 07:56 | 07:56 |
| The agenda: UK retail sales slowdown | The agenda: UK retail sales slowdown |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Consumer spending has been propping the UK economy up since last summer’s EU referendum. But there are now signs that the retail sector is feeling a chill. | Consumer spending has been propping the UK economy up since last summer’s EU referendum. But there are now signs that the retail sector is feeling a chill. |
| A new survey this morning shows that retail sales slid by 0.2% in the three months to February, compared with a year earlier. Non-food sales are dropping for the first time in five years, suggesting consumers are tightening their belts as the economy slows. | A new survey this morning shows that retail sales slid by 0.2% in the three months to February, compared with a year earlier. Non-food sales are dropping for the first time in five years, suggesting consumers are tightening their belts as the economy slows. |
| Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium, which compiled the report, warns: | Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium, which compiled the report, warns: |
| “Tougher times are expected ahead. The impact of inflation on consumer spending will add further intensity to an already fiercely competitive environment in which the ability to adapt and innovate will be key to survival.” | “Tougher times are expected ahead. The impact of inflation on consumer spending will add further intensity to an already fiercely competitive environment in which the ability to adapt and innovate will be key to survival.” |
| Faced with slowing sales, retailers are now pleading with the government to rethink its business rates changes - perhaps as soon as in tomorrow’s Budget? | Faced with slowing sales, retailers are now pleading with the government to rethink its business rates changes - perhaps as soon as in tomorrow’s Budget? |
| Also coming up today..... | Also coming up today..... |
| We get a new healthcheck on the global economy at 10am GMT, with the latest forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). | We get a new healthcheck on the global economy at 10am GMT, with the latest forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). |
| The car industry has flocked to Geneva for the annual Motor Show, where they’ll be showing off new models and concept cars. | The car industry has flocked to Geneva for the annual Motor Show, where they’ll be showing off new models and concept cars. |
| Closer to home, Vauxhall car workers will be thinking about the future after being sold by General Motors yesterday. PSA Group, their new owners, has promised that job cuts aren’t inevitable. But although Vauxhall’s two UK plants are relatively efficient, they could still lose out. | Closer to home, Vauxhall car workers will be thinking about the future after being sold by General Motors yesterday. PSA Group, their new owners, has promised that job cuts aren’t inevitable. But although Vauxhall’s two UK plants are relatively efficient, they could still lose out. |
| My colleague Graham Ruddick explains: | My colleague Graham Ruddick explains: |
| Vauxhall’s factories in Ellesmere Port and Luton will have to battle with Peugeot, Citroën, and Opel plants across Europe to win the right to produce vehicles beyond 2021. | Vauxhall’s factories in Ellesmere Port and Luton will have to battle with Peugeot, Citroën, and Opel plants across Europe to win the right to produce vehicles beyond 2021. |
| The future of Vauxhall’s sites is secure until then because PSA Group, which has bought Vauxhall and Opel from General Motors, has pledged to recognise existing production commitments. Ellesmere Port is scheduled to produce the Astra until 2021 while Luton will make the Vivaro van until 2025. | The future of Vauxhall’s sites is secure until then because PSA Group, which has bought Vauxhall and Opel from General Motors, has pledged to recognise existing production commitments. Ellesmere Port is scheduled to produce the Astra until 2021 while Luton will make the Vivaro van until 2025. |
| However, PSA will have to make a decision on where to produce the next-generation Astra from 2021 as early as next year, and Ellesmere Port faces a significant challenge to win the work and secure its survival.... | However, PSA will have to make a decision on where to produce the next-generation Astra from 2021 as early as next year, and Ellesmere Port faces a significant challenge to win the work and secure its survival.... |
| More here: | More here: |
| European stock markets are expected to rally a little, pushing the FTSE 100 back towards last week’s record highs. | European stock markets are expected to rally a little, pushing the FTSE 100 back towards last week’s record highs. |
| On the corporate news front, bookmaker Paddy Power, online food delivery form Just Eat and insurance firm Direct Line are reporting results. | On the corporate news front, bookmaker Paddy Power, online food delivery form Just Eat and insurance firm Direct Line are reporting results. |
| And Halifax are scheduled to release their latest UK house price figures, at 8.30am GMT. | And Halifax are scheduled to release their latest UK house price figures, at 8.30am GMT. |
| We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day... | We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.11am GMT | at 8.11am GMT |