Brexit briefing: a tale of two bills and a 'bull in a china shop'
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Version 0 of 1. Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, a summary of developments as Britain heads more or less steadily towards the EU door marked “exit”. If you’d like to receive it as a weekly early morning email, please sign up here. A heads-up: the latest Brexit means ... podcast is out now. Jennifer Rankin, the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, and Jane Golding, a British lawyer in Berlin and co-founder of campaign group Brits in Europe, join me to discuss Brexit and UK citizens on the continent. You can listen to it here, and subscribe here. And this: producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes a lot of time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters – and it may well be your perspective, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, become a Guardian Supporter and help make our future more secure. Thank you. The big picture It was a tale of two bills: the government’s draft Brexit law, currently making its way through the House of Lords, and the tab the UK will be asked to settle before it leaves, currently the subject of considerable disagreement. The Lords voted by 358 to 256 last week in favour of amending the bill authorising the government to launch the divorce process, demanding that the rights of EU citizens in the UK be guaranteed within three months of article 50 being triggered. (Separately, Michael Gove and other Tory leavers demanded unilateral action on the matter after a parliamentary report said Theresa May’s approach was causing “great anxiety and uncertainty” to the 3 million EU nationals settled in Britain.) The government has made clear it expects the Brexit bill to pass unamended, but peers will get another chance to tweak it this week when they debating demanding a “meaningful vote” on the deal – something May is opposed to in case it gives the EU an incentive to offer the UK bad terms. The second bill – the divorce settlement – will be a key part of the exit talks, so a report by the Lords’ EU financial affairs sub-committee raised eyebrows when it said the UK could in principle walk away from the EU in 2019 without paying a penny. The government would have “no legal obligation” to pay the €60bn bill mooted by the EU or honour payments into the bloc’s budget promised by former prime minister David Cameron, the report – and assorted government legal sources – said. But the Lords did also stress that if the government wants goodwill from EU countries – and a good deal on access to European markets – that stance will probably not prove very productive: The government will have to set the financial and political costs of making such payments against potential gains from other elements of the negotiations. (The chancellor, Philip Hammond, appeared to agree, saying on Sunday that Britain would of course “honour bills that should be paid”.) The view from Europe Not surprisingly, European politicians and diplomats were not altogether delighted at the suggestion that Britain might be able to leave the EU without paying a multibillion pound divorce settlement. Gianni Pittella, the leader of the socialist group in the European parliament, described the UK prime minister as a “bull in a china shop”, not to mention entirely “inadequate” to the situation, and said the bill must be paid: Without an agreement on this and other crucial issues, talks on future relationships between the EU and UK cannot start. Madame May is fully aware of this, but she’s still fooling herself that the EU can be impressed by her bullying attitude. The reality will soon wake her up. An EU diplomat put it more succinctly: “This is not the price of leaving. This is simply what the UK owes. If you buy a pint in a bar, you have to pay for it even if you don’t drink it.” Meanwhile the outgoing French president, François Hollande, said in an interview with the Guardian and other European papers that Britain could not hang on to the advantages of EU membership after it leaves and had made a mistake: The UK will become an outsider to the European Union ... The UK had thought that in leaving Europe it would tie up a strategic partnership with the US. But the US is closing itself off. The UK has made a bad choice at a bad moment. I regret that. Meanwhile, back in Westminster It’s fair to say that the impact of Brexit on the devolved nations – and the future of the union – has yet to be fully worked out, despite a series of meetings between Theresa May, her ministers and the various leaders. A majority in both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, and while Wales opted for leave, the leaders of Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour have jointly demanded continued access to the single market. Reason, then, for the prime minister to tread carefully – especially amid renewed calls for another Scottish independence referendum? Seemingly not. Addressing the Scottish Conservatives, May again dismissed calls for Scotland to enjoy post-Brexit special deals. She would also oppose any further powers moving north from London, she said, prompting SNP talk of a London “power grab”. Nicola Sturgeon is expected to wait until article 50 is invoked before announcing any plans for a new referendum; it’s perhaps fair to say that May’s speech did not make this option any less likely. Last week’s election to the Northern Ireland assembly was prompted by a bungled green energy scheme, not Brexit. But it took place amid mounting concern about the future of the currently open border with the Republic of Ireland. And while the pro-union – and pro-Brexit – DUP remained just about the biggest party, it is now just one seat ahead of Sinn Féin, rather than 10, so has lost the power to veto measures. The DUP’s Arlene Foster will begin talks in the expectation of remaining first minister, but the process could prove long and difficult – with Brexit uncertainties compounding an already very complex situation. You should also know Philip Hammond will say in his first budget that tax revenues will go into a Brexit emergency reserve rather than increased NHS spending. The chancellor is also setting aside £500m in this week’s budget to fill a predicted post-Brexit skills gap. And he sent a warning to the EU that Britain will “fight back” and not “slink off like a wounded animal” if it does not get the deal it wants. Ending free movement post-Brexit may not deliver a meaningful cut in net migration or provide a “quick fix” for low wages, a Lords report warned. The government was accused of misleading parliament over efforts to protect the post-Brexit rights of British nationals settled in the EU. Britain’s economy is cooling fast, according to the latest surveys of the services, manufacturing and construction sectors since the Brexit vote. The president of the CBI warned that up to 90% of UK exports to EU would be hit by export tariffs or non-tariff barriers if no trade deal is agreed. The Electoral Commission has been urged to investigate the role of social media strategists Cambridge Analytica in Leave.EU’s campaign. Legal experts said the Department for International Trade may have broken EU procurement rules by specifying that contractors must support Brexit. The Brexit secretary, David Davis, warned ministers to prepare for the “unlikely scenario” of an EU exit with no trade deal in place. A General Medical Council poll found that 60% of European doctors are considering leaving the UK over Brexit worries. Nissan called for government investment to help rebuild the UK’s car parts business after the country leaves the EU. Read these: In the Observer, Nick Cohen lays into the government’s refusal to confirm that 3 million EU migrants can stay in post-Brexit Britain, saying it shows that the tolerant nation we thought we knew no longer exists: No one expected the leave camp to win the referendum, including leave campaigners. To justify her ascent to power, May has had to out-right her party’s triumphant right. Jeremy Corbyn cannot lead his own party, let alone a national protest movement. The result is a country caught up in maniacal folly that no one, least of all the prime minister, wants to shake it from. England, which England? Not an England any quiet patriot can take a grudging pride in. In the Financial Times (paywall), Wolfgang Münchau lays into the 85-page form that he is having to fill in to acquire permanent UK residency (the comments are also illuminating): My most dreaded chore this year will be to fill out an 85-page UK government application form that will give me, I hope, permanent residence in the UK after Brexit. The main issue for EU nationals in the UK is not, in fact, whether the UK reaches a deal on the status of EU residents, but rather the procedural and legal traps, of which there are many ... What matters a lot more than any grandstanding declarations is that the British government stops the 85-page nonsense, and approaches the right of residency with a greater sense of proportion. In the Independent, Italian journalist Alessio Colonelli lays out what he says are the main geopolitical reasons why Britons will come to regret voting for Brexit, adding: Britain is being seen from the outside as having an inflated ego about its own economic power. This heady mix of weakness on the world stage and arrogance at home is hardly inspiring ... These problems will eventually combine to damage Britain’s reputation, and destroy its ability to wield soft power. And for that reason, Brexit will be the biggest decision Britons have taken that they will live to personally regret. Tweet of the week ... ... is offered without comment. How Leave voters see Brexit vs how Remain voters see Brexit pic.twitter.com/zn7quUqrtZ |