This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/03/dup-and-sinn-fein-on-course-to-dominate-northern-ireland-assembly

The article has changed 16 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 2 Version 3
DUP and Sinn Féin on course to dominate Northern Ireland assembly DUP and Sinn Féin on course to dominate Northern Ireland assembly
(35 minutes later)
The Democratic Unionists and Sinn Féin are on course to emerge as the two main parties in the Northern Ireland assembly election. Sinn Féin is neck and neck with the Democratic Unionists in the race to become the biggest force in the next Northern Ireland assembly, although the pro-union party is still expected to emerge marginally on top.
With one of the highest voter turnouts since the Good Friday agreement of 1998, by mid-afternoon on Friday Sinn Féin and the DUP were both polling well. With about a quarter of seats filled on Friday evening, the DUP were still slightly ahead of Sinn Féin with 28.08% of the first preference vote compared with the republican party’s increased share of 27.9%.
The DUP said it believed it would be the largest party in the assembly, with one of its ministers in the last regional government, Paul Givan, topping in the Lagan Valley constituency on Friday afternoon. Sinn Féin, however, has more members elected to the regional parliament so far, although the DUP will pick up more seats overnight and on Saturday.
At this early stage, however, Sinn Féin and the DUP appeared to be neck and neck in terms of the share of first preference votes. This means that the DUP and Sinn Féin will once again lead the negotiations aimed at creating a new power-sharing government in Belfast when they take place on Monday. However, the prospect of the parties reaching agreement in the three-week timeframe imposed by the Northern Ireland secretary, James Brokenshire, appears remote.
Sinn Féin’s new leader, Michelle O’Neill, topped the poll in her Mid Ulster constituency, with 10,258 first preference votes. The biggest losers in the contest are the two main opposition parties in the last assembly – the Ulster Unionists and the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour party.
After her election, O’Neill, who replaced a seriously ill Martin McGuinness, said there was still a desire to rebuild a power-sharing coalition with unionists. The SDLP, the party born out of the Northern Ireland civil rights movement at the end of the 1960s, have suffered their worst-ever result with an estimated 11% share of the vote.
The party’s decline was highlighted by the loss of Alex Atwood’s seat in West Belfast. It will be the first time the SDLP will have no representation in the nationalist constituency at Stormont since its foundation.
The loss of former minister Danny Kennedy’s seat in the Newry and Armagh border constituency symbolised the demise of the Ulster Unionists. Despite public anger at the DUP, who were accused of mishandling and defending a botched green energy scheme, which has the potential to cost the taxpayer half a billion pounds, the larger unionist party easily beat off the challenge from the UUP.
The last power-sharing government collapsed when DUP leader and first minister, Arlene Foster, refused to step aside during a public inquiry into the scandal.
Arriving at the Titanic Exhibition Centre where all four Belfast constituencies were being counted, the Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams, paid tribute to retired deputy first minister Martin McGuinness, who left the post due to ill health.
After referring to the party’s increased share of the vote as a “big thank you to Martin McGuinness and his family”, Adams said there would be “no return to the status quo” after the election.
Adams appeared to adopt a hard line over Foster, insisting that the DUP should nominate someone else as either the first or deputy first minister.
But the DUP MP for East Antrim, Sammy Wilson, said it was up to “the DUP and the DUP alone” to pick its choice as first minister should the party remain the main force in the new Stormont parliament.
Sinn Féin’s new leader, Michelle O’Neill, who replaced McGuinness, topped the poll in her Mid Ulster constituency with 10,258 first preference votes.
After her election, O’Neill said the will was still there to rebuild a power-sharing coalition with unionists.
O’Neill said: “If people are serious about making the institutions work; if people are genuine about power sharing, about equality and respect, then whilst we have a difficult period ahead in the next few weeks, there is nothing that is unachievable if you have the right attitude.”O’Neill said: “If people are serious about making the institutions work; if people are genuine about power sharing, about equality and respect, then whilst we have a difficult period ahead in the next few weeks, there is nothing that is unachievable if you have the right attitude.”
One of the losers in this election will be the smaller nationalist Social Democratic and Labour party which, for the first time since it was founded in the early 1970s, will not have a representative from west Belfast in a regional assembly. The cross-community Alliance party is on course to secure 8% of the vote and the return of all of its eight seats from the last assembly.
Just after 3pm on Friday the SDLP’s outgoing assemblyman and former environment minister, Alex Atwood, was eliminated from the count in the west of the city. It was likely that all four Sinn Féin candidates, including the party’s first lord mayor of Belfast, Alex Maskey, would be elected in the same constituency. Five assembly members are elected to each of the 18 parliamentary constituencies across Northern Ireland in an election using the single transferable vote system of proportional representation where voters can give number 1 to their most preferred candidate and then transfer down the ballot paper by voting 2,3,4,5 etc for other candidates.
Sinn Féin pointed out that the turnout in the republican constituency was 10% higher than last May’s assembly election. The party also performed well in the South Down constituency with a combined vote of 19,000 between its two candidates, Sinéad Ennis and Chris Hazard, who were both elected on the first count. The STV system means counts across eight counting centres will be protracted and drawn out, with the final results not expected until mid-Saturday afternoon.
The SDLP leader, Colum Eastwood, who was on course to be elected in the Foyle constituency, acknowledged that “Sinn Féin has been the main beneficiary” of nationalist anger over the collapse of the last power-sharing executive at the start of this year. On Monday, Brokenshire will give the parties three weeks to form a new regional government. After that period, he has two choices: he can advise the parties to call another election or temporarily impose direct rule from London while the local politicians try to piece together a new administration in Belfast.
The Ulster Unionists are also faring badly so far with one of its former devolved ministers, Danny Kennedy, struggling to hold on to his seat in Newry and Armagh.
Despite a high turnout the DUP will be pleased that their vote has held up as North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds predicted earlier on Friday morning.
A higher turnout – almost 65% – was seen by some as dangerous for the DUP because of the controversy over the way the party mismanaged and then stubbornly defended the controversial renewable heat incentive scheme.
The controversy over the scheme became known as the “cash for the ash” scandal. Due to poor accounting the RHI resulted in farmers and small businesses making £1.60 for every £1 they invested in boilers fired up with wood pellets and other recyclable materials. The final bill for the scheme is estimated to cost the taxpayer up to £500m.
In the face of this controversy the DUP’s surprising performance was encapsulated by poll toppers such as the party’s candidate in Upper Bann, Carla Lockhart, who was the first assembly member re-elected from the constituency.
If as expected the DUP and Sinn Féin are returned as the two main parties the negotiations to restore power sharing will be long and torturous. On Monday the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, James Brokenshire, will give the parties three weeks to form a new regional government.
After that period Brokenshire has two choices: he can advise the parties to call another election, or temporarily impose direct rule from London while the local politicians try to piece together a new administration.