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Ukip may be reduced to infighting. But an appetite for its policies persists Ukip may be reduced to infighting. But an appetite for its policies persists
(about 5 hours later)
Ever since the country voted for Brexit, the future for the one political party that was wholly committed to achieving this outcome has looked far from certain. The UK Independence Party had always been guided by one overriding mission – to deliver a referendum on EU membership and then convince the British people to vote to leave. When both of these things happened, Ukip was presented with a fundamental dilemma: what do you ask for when you already have everything you ever wanted?Ever since the country voted for Brexit, the future for the one political party that was wholly committed to achieving this outcome has looked far from certain. The UK Independence Party had always been guided by one overriding mission – to deliver a referendum on EU membership and then convince the British people to vote to leave. When both of these things happened, Ukip was presented with a fundamental dilemma: what do you ask for when you already have everything you ever wanted?
Many in Ukip had assumed that the result of the referendum would be quite different. In fact, some had pinned their hopes on a narrow victory for remain, which would have left in its wake a large number of defeated but still committed leavers. In interviews before the referendum, many Ukip supporters told me of their plan to use a narrow victory for remain as a springboard to recreating a “SNP-style” revolt in England, similar to the surge of support for the party that followed in the wake of Scotland’s independence referendum in 2014. As that referendum revealed, the defeated never walk away quietly into the night. Similarly, a narrow referendum defeat would have been turned into a much broader rebellion against the political and media elite.Many in Ukip had assumed that the result of the referendum would be quite different. In fact, some had pinned their hopes on a narrow victory for remain, which would have left in its wake a large number of defeated but still committed leavers. In interviews before the referendum, many Ukip supporters told me of their plan to use a narrow victory for remain as a springboard to recreating a “SNP-style” revolt in England, similar to the surge of support for the party that followed in the wake of Scotland’s independence referendum in 2014. As that referendum revealed, the defeated never walk away quietly into the night. Similarly, a narrow referendum defeat would have been turned into a much broader rebellion against the political and media elite.
Instead, the narrow win for leave caught even Nigel Farage by surprise, throwing Ukip into an existential crisis and immediately calming the wind behind its sails. That Ukip has struggled to articulate a new and compelling message for the post-referendum era has been reflected in its performance at four parliamentary byelections the party has fought since Brexit. From Witney to Stoke-on-Trent Central, Ukip’s results looked like those that belong to a party that is politically lost rather than one that is leading a powerful grassroots insurgency.Instead, the narrow win for leave caught even Nigel Farage by surprise, throwing Ukip into an existential crisis and immediately calming the wind behind its sails. That Ukip has struggled to articulate a new and compelling message for the post-referendum era has been reflected in its performance at four parliamentary byelections the party has fought since Brexit. From Witney to Stoke-on-Trent Central, Ukip’s results looked like those that belong to a party that is politically lost rather than one that is leading a powerful grassroots insurgency.
So does this mean that Ukip should be written off? With no unifying and unique message, the party has turned in on itself. Instead of using this time to explore ways of carving out new territory – for instance by turning to issues such as electoral reform, Englishness, inequality, or proposing new ideas for a post-Brexit immigration policy – Ukip has been consumed by factionalism.So does this mean that Ukip should be written off? With no unifying and unique message, the party has turned in on itself. Instead of using this time to explore ways of carving out new territory – for instance by turning to issues such as electoral reform, Englishness, inequality, or proposing new ideas for a post-Brexit immigration policy – Ukip has been consumed by factionalism.
A narrow victory for remain would have been a springboard to recreating a 'SNP-style' revoltA narrow victory for remain would have been a springboard to recreating a 'SNP-style' revolt
Now that the party’s sole MP, Douglas Carswell, has reminded everybody that he does not really like Nigel Farage, while Farage has reminded everybody that he wants Carswell thrown out of Ukip. Carswell probably believes that he played an important role in steering Ukip away from the populist anti-immigration message that could have otherwise thrown the referendum to remain; Farage believes that Ukip has been hijacked by Conservative conspirators who want to dilute its radical message and consign him to the wilderness. Now the party’s sole MP, Douglas Carswell, has reminded everybody that he does not really like Nigel Farage, while Farage has reminded everybody that he wants Carswell thrown out of Ukip. Carswell probably believes that he played an important role in steering Ukip away from the populist anti-immigration message that could have otherwise thrown the referendum to remain; Farage believes that Ukip has been hijacked by Conservative conspirators who want to dilute its radical message and consign him to the wilderness.
Their dispute stretches all the way back to the 2014 parliamentary byelection in Clacton, and has been fuelled by the personalities of both men – with Farage loathing anything to do with mainstream Conservatism and Carswell, well, being Carswell. It has also now impacted on the question of whether Farage should be sent into the House of Lords, with some claiming that the move was delayed or blocked by Carswell. All things considered – and mainly as a nod to the 4 million voters who since 2015 have been represented by just one seat in the House of Commons – my own view is that Farage probably should be in the House of Lords. Isolating such figures for political reasons is unlikely to remedy the discontent that pushed them to the forefront in the first place.Their dispute stretches all the way back to the 2014 parliamentary byelection in Clacton, and has been fuelled by the personalities of both men – with Farage loathing anything to do with mainstream Conservatism and Carswell, well, being Carswell. It has also now impacted on the question of whether Farage should be sent into the House of Lords, with some claiming that the move was delayed or blocked by Carswell. All things considered – and mainly as a nod to the 4 million voters who since 2015 have been represented by just one seat in the House of Commons – my own view is that Farage probably should be in the House of Lords. Isolating such figures for political reasons is unlikely to remedy the discontent that pushed them to the forefront in the first place.
Either way, this seemingly endless cycle will go on and on, until either Ukip’s national executive decides to expel Carswell or Farage and his entourage break away to start an entirely new movement, or at the least endorse one. Farage’s ally and donor, Arron Banks, has now said that he could stand against Carswell in Clacton at the next general election, an outcome that would most likely split the Ukip vote and allow the Tories in through the back door. But this attitude reflects how Ukip is now obsessed with small time-posturing rather than developing a broader and radical offer to the electorate.Either way, this seemingly endless cycle will go on and on, until either Ukip’s national executive decides to expel Carswell or Farage and his entourage break away to start an entirely new movement, or at the least endorse one. Farage’s ally and donor, Arron Banks, has now said that he could stand against Carswell in Clacton at the next general election, an outcome that would most likely split the Ukip vote and allow the Tories in through the back door. But this attitude reflects how Ukip is now obsessed with small time-posturing rather than developing a broader and radical offer to the electorate.
Ukip’s infighting should not distract us from some of the deeper currents in British, or more specifically, English politics. In the aftermath of Paul Nuttall’s failure to capture Stoke-on-Trent, few commentators have pointed to the fact that Ukip continues to average between 10% and 13% in the polls. This suggests that despite Theresa May’s strength, there are a significant number of voters who may refuse to fall back into the mainstream fold.Ukip’s infighting should not distract us from some of the deeper currents in British, or more specifically, English politics. In the aftermath of Paul Nuttall’s failure to capture Stoke-on-Trent, few commentators have pointed to the fact that Ukip continues to average between 10% and 13% in the polls. This suggests that despite Theresa May’s strength, there are a significant number of voters who may refuse to fall back into the mainstream fold.
Meanwhile, public concern over immigration remains at historically high levels. The issue is still a top-three concern for most voters, while across a range of surveys it is clear that large majorities of the electorate want to see overall reductions in immigration.Meanwhile, public concern over immigration remains at historically high levels. The issue is still a top-three concern for most voters, while across a range of surveys it is clear that large majorities of the electorate want to see overall reductions in immigration.
Will such anxieties be calmed simply through the changes to visa policy and welfare benefits that were proposed this week? Or are these voters expecting wholesale reductions in the numbers of immigrants arriving in Britain? If the latter, will these voters not be disappointed and angry when such changes fail to materialise, not to mention when they discover that other changes to Brexit Britain will probably not be seen in a meaningful sense until at least 2020? Might these voters not be instinctively receptive to a movement that offers even more radical change, especially those who will be simultaneously hit by squeezed incomes and rising inflation?Will such anxieties be calmed simply through the changes to visa policy and welfare benefits that were proposed this week? Or are these voters expecting wholesale reductions in the numbers of immigrants arriving in Britain? If the latter, will these voters not be disappointed and angry when such changes fail to materialise, not to mention when they discover that other changes to Brexit Britain will probably not be seen in a meaningful sense until at least 2020? Might these voters not be instinctively receptive to a movement that offers even more radical change, especially those who will be simultaneously hit by squeezed incomes and rising inflation?
Ukip may be struggling at the moment, but the answers to these questions point towards its future. Irrespective of whether the party remains active in domestic politics, as in most other western states, there is likely to remain a pool of disillusioned and immigration-minded voters who may yet provide the votes for a similar revolt in the future.Ukip may be struggling at the moment, but the answers to these questions point towards its future. Irrespective of whether the party remains active in domestic politics, as in most other western states, there is likely to remain a pool of disillusioned and immigration-minded voters who may yet provide the votes for a similar revolt in the future.