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| E.U., Pressured From Inside and Out, Considers a Reboot | |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| BRUSSELS — The mantra of European Union bureaucrats has always been that crises make the bloc stronger. And stronger is implicitly defined as integrating more deeply and centralizing more power with European institutions in Brussels, part of the bloc’s defining goal of creating “an ever-closer union.” | BRUSSELS — The mantra of European Union bureaucrats has always been that crises make the bloc stronger. And stronger is implicitly defined as integrating more deeply and centralizing more power with European institutions in Brussels, part of the bloc’s defining goal of creating “an ever-closer union.” |
| But with the European Union encountering trouble on every corner, Britain laying the groundwork to become the first member state to leave and populist movements vying for power in core member states like France and the Netherlands, it is now the bloc itself that is in crisis. | But with the European Union encountering trouble on every corner, Britain laying the groundwork to become the first member state to leave and populist movements vying for power in core member states like France and the Netherlands, it is now the bloc itself that is in crisis. |
| Even Jean-Claude Juncker, the leader of the European Union’s executive body, concedes that a new vision is needed for the bloc once it is reduced to 27 countries, after “Brexit,” as Britain’s withdrawal is commonly known, is completed. | Even Jean-Claude Juncker, the leader of the European Union’s executive body, concedes that a new vision is needed for the bloc once it is reduced to 27 countries, after “Brexit,” as Britain’s withdrawal is commonly known, is completed. |
| The question is what that vision will be. | The question is what that vision will be. |
| On Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Juncker, the president of the European Commission, is to deliver a speech at a meeting of the European Parliament in Brussels that will include five scenarios for the bloc’s future — including some that could roll back his powers. | On Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Juncker, the president of the European Commission, is to deliver a speech at a meeting of the European Parliament in Brussels that will include five scenarios for the bloc’s future — including some that could roll back his powers. |
| “A united Europe at 27 needs to shape its own destiny and carve out a vision for its own future,” Mr. Juncker wrote in a white paper outlining “reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025.” | “A united Europe at 27 needs to shape its own destiny and carve out a vision for its own future,” Mr. Juncker wrote in a white paper outlining “reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025.” |
| One thing that will not change anytime soon is the glacial pace of European decision making. The process of determining what path to take will probably take at least two years, a time frame similar to the one negotiators will have to negotiate Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. | One thing that will not change anytime soon is the glacial pace of European decision making. The process of determining what path to take will probably take at least two years, a time frame similar to the one negotiators will have to negotiate Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. |
| Mr. Juncker wants national leaders to give him a mandate at a meeting on March 25 in Rome to begin a popular consultation. He will then need to decide how to carry out the work. | Mr. Juncker wants national leaders to give him a mandate at a meeting on March 25 in Rome to begin a popular consultation. He will then need to decide how to carry out the work. |
| The possibilities run the gamut, from sticking to the status quo to making a collective leap into a fully federal future. For now, many of the suggestions are vague and exploratory. | The possibilities run the gamut, from sticking to the status quo to making a collective leap into a fully federal future. For now, many of the suggestions are vague and exploratory. |
| Guy Verhofstadt, a pro-European lawmaker who represents Belgium in the European Parliament, was expected to tell Mr. Juncker that there was a simpler solution to deal with the migration crisis, to stabilize troubled banks and to lower energy prices: Scrap the need for all member states to agree on major policy decisions, a root cause of deadlock. | Guy Verhofstadt, a pro-European lawmaker who represents Belgium in the European Parliament, was expected to tell Mr. Juncker that there was a simpler solution to deal with the migration crisis, to stabilize troubled banks and to lower energy prices: Scrap the need for all member states to agree on major policy decisions, a root cause of deadlock. |
| “The unanimity rule has become an obstacle, a permanent blockade,” Mr. Verhofstadt said in remarks prepared ahead of a Parliament debate set for later Wednesday. | “The unanimity rule has become an obstacle, a permanent blockade,” Mr. Verhofstadt said in remarks prepared ahead of a Parliament debate set for later Wednesday. |
| Which of the visions outlined below is most likely to prevail? That will depend in large part on which one is favored by the winners of the next round of European elections, to be held in 2019. | Which of the visions outlined below is most likely to prevail? That will depend in large part on which one is favored by the winners of the next round of European elections, to be held in 2019. |
| The first scenario would keep things as they are: Brussels would continue to make an effort to deepen cooperation in the fight against terrorism, build up joint defense capabilities and defend borders, and the eurozone would see “incremental” attempts at improvement. | The first scenario would keep things as they are: Brussels would continue to make an effort to deepen cooperation in the fight against terrorism, build up joint defense capabilities and defend borders, and the eurozone would see “incremental” attempts at improvement. |
| However, consensus would remain elusive in crucial but contentious areas, and, the white paper says, “the unity of the EU27 is preserved but may still be tested in the event of major disputes.” | However, consensus would remain elusive in crucial but contentious areas, and, the white paper says, “the unity of the EU27 is preserved but may still be tested in the event of major disputes.” |
| The huge influx of migrants to Europe in 2015 has already led to the revival of border checks in many countries that once largely allowed passport-free travel. According to this scenario, citizens should expect some holdups to persist when crossing between European Union countries. They should also expect a continued patchwork of national rules that hinder economic progress, such as in e-commerce. | The huge influx of migrants to Europe in 2015 has already led to the revival of border checks in many countries that once largely allowed passport-free travel. According to this scenario, citizens should expect some holdups to persist when crossing between European Union countries. They should also expect a continued patchwork of national rules that hinder economic progress, such as in e-commerce. |
| The paper also warns that trade deals are likely to be delayed by discussions and disagreements in national and regional parliaments if the status quo continues. That was the case in the recent wrangling over whether the European Union should sign a deal with Canada on the so-called Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. | The paper also warns that trade deals are likely to be delayed by discussions and disagreements in national and regional parliaments if the status quo continues. That was the case in the recent wrangling over whether the European Union should sign a deal with Canada on the so-called Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. |
| A second option would acknowledge the difficulties in getting member states to cooperate by essentially asking them to no longer try in most areas. Instead, the focus would narrow to the so-called single market and its 500 million consumers. | A second option would acknowledge the difficulties in getting member states to cooperate by essentially asking them to no longer try in most areas. Instead, the focus would narrow to the so-called single market and its 500 million consumers. |
| This scenario would represent a dramatic and humbling rollback of long-held European aspirations. It would mean an end to efforts for further integration in areas like migration, security and defense. | This scenario would represent a dramatic and humbling rollback of long-held European aspirations. It would mean an end to efforts for further integration in areas like migration, security and defense. |
| The European Union would start “withdrawing two existing pieces of legislation for every new initiative proposed,” the white paper says. | The European Union would start “withdrawing two existing pieces of legislation for every new initiative proposed,” the white paper says. |
| What would it mean for Europeans? There would be little or no Pan-European oversight of the water quality in rivers like the Danube and the Rhine that run between nations, for example. They might face higher medical costs when falling ill abroad, because reciprocal agreements between member states on health care would probably come to an end. And it would be harder for the remaining 27 member states to punish foreign powers that mount cyberattacks in Europe. | What would it mean for Europeans? There would be little or no Pan-European oversight of the water quality in rivers like the Danube and the Rhine that run between nations, for example. They might face higher medical costs when falling ill abroad, because reciprocal agreements between member states on health care would probably come to an end. And it would be harder for the remaining 27 member states to punish foreign powers that mount cyberattacks in Europe. |
| This proposal calls for what is known as a multispeed Europe. Countries willing to integrate in specific areas would do so as “coalitions of the willing.” Others could join over time. | This proposal calls for what is known as a multispeed Europe. Countries willing to integrate in specific areas would do so as “coalitions of the willing.” Others could join over time. |
| Core areas for cooperation could include defense, with European armies readied for joint missions, and the fight against organized crime, which would require deeper cooperation between police and intelligence services and the use of “fully interconnected” databases. | Core areas for cooperation could include defense, with European armies readied for joint missions, and the fight against organized crime, which would require deeper cooperation between police and intelligence services and the use of “fully interconnected” databases. |
| Trade deals with countries outside the bloc would continue to be managed entirely by the European authorities in Brussels, and there would be “greater harmonization of tax rules and rates” to reduce compliance costs and limit tax evasion. | Trade deals with countries outside the bloc would continue to be managed entirely by the European authorities in Brussels, and there would be “greater harmonization of tax rules and rates” to reduce compliance costs and limit tax evasion. |
| Even so, the white paper sounds a cautionary note. “Citizens’ rights derived from E.U. law start to vary depending on whether or not they live in a country that has chosen to do more.” | Even so, the white paper sounds a cautionary note. “Citizens’ rights derived from E.U. law start to vary depending on whether or not they live in a country that has chosen to do more.” |
| Elements of this scenario have already met with skepticism in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, where countries fear that such an approach would create elite groups within the European Union. | Elements of this scenario have already met with skepticism in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, where countries fear that such an approach would create elite groups within the European Union. |
| This scenario is all about defining choices and setting priorities. Member states would reclaim responsibility in sectors where they do not want to cooperate; in other, predefined areas, the European Union would act more like a fully federal entity. | This scenario is all about defining choices and setting priorities. Member states would reclaim responsibility in sectors where they do not want to cooperate; in other, predefined areas, the European Union would act more like a fully federal entity. |
| “As a result, the EU27 is able to act much quicker and more decisively in its chosen priority areas,” according to the white paper, which adds that, “stronger tools are given to the EU27 to directly implement and enforce collective decisions, as it does today in competition policy or for banking supervision.” | “As a result, the EU27 is able to act much quicker and more decisively in its chosen priority areas,” according to the white paper, which adds that, “stronger tools are given to the EU27 to directly implement and enforce collective decisions, as it does today in competition policy or for banking supervision.” |
| One benefit of this approach is that it would align Europeans’ expectations about what Brussels can deliver by making more clear where European officials have authority. In a recent case where automakers broke pollution rules, Brussels was “widely expected to protect consumers from cheating manufacturers,” but it had “no powers or tools to do so in a direct and visible manner.” | One benefit of this approach is that it would align Europeans’ expectations about what Brussels can deliver by making more clear where European officials have authority. In a recent case where automakers broke pollution rules, Brussels was “widely expected to protect consumers from cheating manufacturers,” but it had “no powers or tools to do so in a direct and visible manner.” |
| The paper also suggests a single “European Asylum Agency” to handle all refugee cases. Areas where Brussels might relinquish power include overseeing public health and social policy. | The paper also suggests a single “European Asylum Agency” to handle all refugee cases. Areas where Brussels might relinquish power include overseeing public health and social policy. |
| Can the European Union transform itself into a fully federal entity in which all 27 member states abide by rules set in Brussels in all existing and future policy areas? Probably not — at least not any time soon, given the rise of anti-Europe forces in so many member states. | Can the European Union transform itself into a fully federal entity in which all 27 member states abide by rules set in Brussels in all existing and future policy areas? Probably not — at least not any time soon, given the rise of anti-Europe forces in so many member states. |
| Doing so would offer “far greater and quicker decision making” at the union level, according to the paper. But “there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the E.U. lacks legitimacy or has taken too much power away from national authorities.” | Doing so would offer “far greater and quicker decision making” at the union level, according to the paper. But “there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the E.U. lacks legitimacy or has taken too much power away from national authorities.” |
| Some proposals will infuriate populists who see the European Union as meddlesome and who want to destroy the bloc entirely. This scenario envisions European Union embassies; trade agreements that would be “initiated, negotiated and swiftly ratified by the E.U. on behalf of its 27 member states”; and the European Parliament overseeing a European Monetary Fund with the ability to bail out member states with failing economies. | Some proposals will infuriate populists who see the European Union as meddlesome and who want to destroy the bloc entirely. This scenario envisions European Union embassies; trade agreements that would be “initiated, negotiated and swiftly ratified by the E.U. on behalf of its 27 member states”; and the European Parliament overseeing a European Monetary Fund with the ability to bail out member states with failing economies. |