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| US presidential address calms markets ahead of manufacturing figures - business live | US presidential address calms markets ahead of manufacturing figures - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.49am GMT | |
| 08:49 | |
| Italian manufacturing grows strongly | |
| Italy’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace since December 2015 in February, according to the latest Markit survey. | |
| The purchasing managers index rose from 53 in January to 55 last month, and well above the 53.5 figure expected by economists. | |
| #Italy #manufacturing #PMI up markedly to 14-month high of 55.0 in Feb (53.0 in Jan). Best news sees employment growth best since Nov 2000 | |
| 8.27am GMT | |
| 08:27 | |
| Back with the US, and expectations of an interest rate rise in March have soared after Federal Reserve comments and Trump’s speech. Kathleen Brooks at City Index explains: | |
| The media is focused on the lack of detail surrounding [Trump’s] tax cuts and infrastructure plans, however, the market that matters at the moment - the Fed Funds Futures market – has surged into life since Trump spoke earlier, and is now pricing in a whopping 80% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting on 15th March; just last week this was only 34%. | |
| What’s triggered the sea-change in rate hike expectations from the Fed? Firstly, the Fed itself. The President of the New York Fed, Dudley, spoke last night and said that the case for tightening interest rates has “become a lot more compelling”. As head of the NY Fed, Dudley’s words hold weight, added to this he is not usually a hawk, so when he is considering a rate hike the market takes note. This was followed by even more direct comments from the head of the San Francisco Fed, who said that he sees a March rate hike getting “serious consideration”. Fed members don’t just let words slip out when they speak to the press, this was a message for the markets, and the markets have duly reacted. | |
| The second boost to rate hike expectations is probably from Trump. Even if his speech did lack detail the President still wants Congress to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure spending programme, something he has a chance of getting through, even if it is a slimmed down version, because Congress is controlled by the Republicans. There was some expectation that Trump’s spending plans could be delayed for a year or so, the fact the President has laid them out at this early stage gives the Fed the green light to normalise monetary policy to counter-balance a boost to fiscal spending. | |
| Of course, there is still a chance that the market will over-shoot and get too excited for a March rate hike that may never come. US PCE data later today, comments from Janet Yellen on Friday and next week’s payrolls and wage data will all be key indicators that could determine if we get a rate hike on 15th March. Thus, it could be a volatile few weeks. | |
| 8.21am GMT | |
| 08:21 | |
| Spanish factory growth slows | |
| Spain’s manufacturing sector grew by less than expected in February and less than the previous month: | |
| Spanish Markit Manufacturing PMI Feb: 54.8 (est 55.8; prev 55.6) | |
| But the purchasing managers index was still well above the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction. | |
| Manufacturers said they increased output prices to cope with the rising cost of materials such as steel. | |
| #Spain Markit Manufacturing PMI at 54.8 https://t.co/rC4KwC3wbv pic.twitter.com/j09iV32D1Z | |
| Updated | |
| at 8.22am GMT | |
| 8.14am GMT | 8.14am GMT |
| 08:14 | 08:14 |
| European markets open higher | European markets open higher |
| As expected, investors in Europe have reacted calmly to Donald Trump’s address to Congress, with markets on the front foot ahead of a batch of economic data. | As expected, investors in Europe have reacted calmly to Donald Trump’s address to Congress, with markets on the front foot ahead of a batch of economic data. |
| The FTSE 100 is up 43 points or 0.6% while Germany’s Dax has opened up 0.8%, France’s Cac has climbed 0.9% and Italy’s FTSE MIB and Spain’s Ibex are both around 0.8% higher. | The FTSE 100 is up 43 points or 0.6% while Germany’s Dax has opened up 0.8%, France’s Cac has climbed 0.9% and Italy’s FTSE MIB and Spain’s Ibex are both around 0.8% higher. |
| 7.55am GMT | 7.55am GMT |
| 07:55 | 07:55 |
| UK house prices rise more than expected - Nationwide | UK house prices rise more than expected - Nationwide |
| Angela Monaghan | Angela Monaghan |
| In the UK, there was little sign of a Brexit-related blow to the housing market in February, with prices rising more than expected according to Nationwide. | In the UK, there was little sign of a Brexit-related blow to the housing market in February, with prices rising more than expected according to Nationwide. |
| The average price of a home rose 0.6% to £205,846 last month, following a 0.2% increase in January. | The average price of a home rose 0.6% to £205,846 last month, following a 0.2% increase in January. |
| It comfortably beat economists’ expectations of a 0.2% rise and took the annual rate of house price growth to 4.5% from 4.3% a month earlier. | It comfortably beat economists’ expectations of a 0.2% rise and took the annual rate of house price growth to 4.5% from 4.3% a month earlier. |
| Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said the backdrop for the housing market was mixed. The economy had performed relatively strongly on the one hand, with growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter, but on the other hand UK consumers might be less willing to spend money in the coming months as inflation picks up. | Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said the backdrop for the housing market was mixed. The economy had performed relatively strongly on the one hand, with growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter, but on the other hand UK consumers might be less willing to spend money in the coming months as inflation picks up. |
| He concludes: “In our view a small rise in house prices of around 2% is more likely than a decline over the course of 2017, since low borrowing costs and the dearth of homes on the market will continue to support prices.” | He concludes: “In our view a small rise in house prices of around 2% is more likely than a decline over the course of 2017, since low borrowing costs and the dearth of homes on the market will continue to support prices.” |
| 7.47am GMT | 7.47am GMT |
| 07:47 | 07:47 |
| Although President Trump repeated his pledge to build a wall between the US and Mexico, he did not say explicitly that Mexico would have to pay for it, which gave some relief to the peso. | Although President Trump repeated his pledge to build a wall between the US and Mexico, he did not say explicitly that Mexico would have to pay for it, which gave some relief to the peso. |
| But he did attack the high cost of pharmaceuticals again, which could put some pressure on the sector, while bank investors may also be disappointed. Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said: | But he did attack the high cost of pharmaceuticals again, which could put some pressure on the sector, while bank investors may also be disappointed. Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said: |
| President Trump reiterated that he would help to drive down the cost of drugs, which could knock the S&P 500’s healthcare sector back from its highest level since mid-2016. The lack of detail on financial regulation could also curb some enthusiasm for US banks. The President did not mention Dodd-Frank by name; a regulation that the financial sector had hoped would be scrapped by this administration. To cushion the blow, however, is the prospect of a Fed rate hike this month, so any decline in US banks on Wednesday could be used as a buying opportunity. | President Trump reiterated that he would help to drive down the cost of drugs, which could knock the S&P 500’s healthcare sector back from its highest level since mid-2016. The lack of detail on financial regulation could also curb some enthusiasm for US banks. The President did not mention Dodd-Frank by name; a regulation that the financial sector had hoped would be scrapped by this administration. To cushion the blow, however, is the prospect of a Fed rate hike this month, so any decline in US banks on Wednesday could be used as a buying opportunity. |
| Higher US interest rates are supporting the dollar, and pushing the pound lower. Sterling is down 0.12% at $1.2366 although the UK currency is up 0.23% against the euro at €1.1728. | Higher US interest rates are supporting the dollar, and pushing the pound lower. Sterling is down 0.12% at $1.2366 although the UK currency is up 0.23% against the euro at €1.1728. |
| 7.36am GMT | 7.36am GMT |
| 07:36 | 07:36 |
| Here are the expected openings for the European markets: | Here are the expected openings for the European markets: |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7284 up 20$DAX 11858 up 24$CAC 4874 up 16$IBEX 9555 down 1$MIB 19002 up 89 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7284 up 20$DAX 11858 up 24$CAC 4874 up 16$IBEX 9555 down 1$MIB 19002 up 89 |
| 7.34am GMT | 7.34am GMT |
| 07:34 | 07:34 |
| Agenda: Reaction to Trump speech, global manufacturing snapshot due | Agenda: Reaction to Trump speech, global manufacturing snapshot due |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| President Trump’s long awaited address to Congress ended up being more, well, presidential than usual. There was nothing there to scare the horses, although there was not much in the way of new detail in terms of his tax reforms and infrastructure spending plans. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: | President Trump’s long awaited address to Congress ended up being more, well, presidential than usual. There was nothing there to scare the horses, although there was not much in the way of new detail in terms of his tax reforms and infrastructure spending plans. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: |
| Having built up expectations to elevated levels over the past few weeks the President set himself an exceedingly high bar to deliver, which always suggested that it could struggle to live up to expectations, in terms of additional detail to what we already know. Ultimately that is the key benchmark here, yes the speech was optimistic and Mr Trump did come across as more Presidential, however the speech merely confirmed a lot of the details that had been heavily trailed before. | Having built up expectations to elevated levels over the past few weeks the President set himself an exceedingly high bar to deliver, which always suggested that it could struggle to live up to expectations, in terms of additional detail to what we already know. Ultimately that is the key benchmark here, yes the speech was optimistic and Mr Trump did come across as more Presidential, however the speech merely confirmed a lot of the details that had been heavily trailed before. |
| As to the key question as to whether it would come across as more or less bullish in terms of spending and rates there was still a significant lack of detail. This may be more to do with tempering expectations until he puts his final plans through Congress ahead of any debt ceiling negotiations. | As to the key question as to whether it would come across as more or less bullish in terms of spending and rates there was still a significant lack of detail. This may be more to do with tempering expectations until he puts his final plans through Congress ahead of any debt ceiling negotiations. |
| The speech merely confirmed the President’s aspirations with respect to infrastructure spending, up to $1trn, while there was little in the way of content about tax policy, though we had been forewarned about that given his comments about prioritising revamping Obamacare. There were no details about a border adjustment tax, though he did reiterate his commitment to free and fair trade, as well as building the border wall with Mexico. | The speech merely confirmed the President’s aspirations with respect to infrastructure spending, up to $1trn, while there was little in the way of content about tax policy, though we had been forewarned about that given his comments about prioritising revamping Obamacare. There were no details about a border adjustment tax, though he did reiterate his commitment to free and fair trade, as well as building the border wall with Mexico. |
| Our full report on Trump’s address is here: | Our full report on Trump’s address is here: |
| All this served to calm the markets, although ahead of the speech the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended lower after twelve day’s of record highs, albeit down just 0.12%. That meant it has fallen short of beating the best consecutive run of closing highs - 13 days in January 1987. | All this served to calm the markets, although ahead of the speech the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended lower after twelve day’s of record highs, albeit down just 0.12%. That meant it has fallen short of beating the best consecutive run of closing highs - 13 days in January 1987. |
| But in the aftermath of Trump’s speech Asian markets moved higher, with the Nikkei up 1.4% to its best close since February 15. European markets are also expected to open ahead. | But in the aftermath of Trump’s speech Asian markets moved higher, with the Nikkei up 1.4% to its best close since February 15. European markets are also expected to open ahead. |
| US interest rates were also in focus after more members of the Federal Reserve suggested a rise could be imminent, perhaps even at this month’s meeting. New York Fed president Bill Dudley, thought of as a dove on policy, seemed to be veering towards a rise, saying it had become “a lot more compelling” after recent data. | US interest rates were also in focus after more members of the Federal Reserve suggested a rise could be imminent, perhaps even at this month’s meeting. New York Fed president Bill Dudley, thought of as a dove on policy, seemed to be veering towards a rise, saying it had become “a lot more compelling” after recent data. |
| It being the first of the month, there is a host of new data due, including manufacturing figures for February from the eurozone, UK and US as well as German jobs and inflation data. | It being the first of the month, there is a host of new data due, including manufacturing figures for February from the eurozone, UK and US as well as German jobs and inflation data. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.37am GMT | at 7.37am GMT |