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| Markets await US growth and trade data as Trump promises 'revved up economy' - live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.05pm GMT | |
| 12:05 | |
| More from Trump: | |
| Trump doubles down to @FoxNews says "I'm not touching Social Security" when it comes to budget cuts | |
| 12.02pm GMT | |
| 12:02 | |
| Trump: extra defence spending will come from "a revved up economy" | |
| Back with Trump, and in his Fox interview he is asked how he will fund the extra spending on defence. | |
| He is told that saving money from the environment and state department budget is not enough to cover his proposed increases. | |
| He says, “Well, I think the money is going to come from a revved up economy. | |
| “I mean you look at the kind of numbers we’re doing, we were probably GDP of a little more than 1% and if I can get that up to three or maybe more, we have a whole different ball game...And that’s what we’re looking to do.” | |
| .@POTUS expects he'll be able to get some of the $54B increase in military spending "from a revved up economy" pic.twitter.com/OJKMAs7geM | |
| Here he previews the topics for his address to Congress later: | |
| EXCLUSIVE: @POTUS previews his address to Congress tonight, says he'll discuss health care, the military, and the border pic.twitter.com/fyKF2gd2jU | |
| 11.22am GMT | 11.22am GMT |
| 11:22 | 11:22 |
| As flagged earlier, the British Chambers of Commerce is holding its annual meeting in London at the moment, and our politics live blog is covering the appearances from George Osborne and John McDonnell, and the other attendees. | As flagged earlier, the British Chambers of Commerce is holding its annual meeting in London at the moment, and our politics live blog is covering the appearances from George Osborne and John McDonnell, and the other attendees. |
| You can follow all the action here: | You can follow all the action here: |
| 11.16am GMT | 11.16am GMT |
| 11:16 | 11:16 |
| Trump: we need to spend a lot more on defence | Trump: we need to spend a lot more on defence |
| President Trump is giving an interview on Fox News ahead of his address to Congress later. | President Trump is giving an interview on Fox News ahead of his address to Congress later. |
| In the pre-recorded interview, he was asked whether his $54bn to be spent on defence was enough and said it could be $30bn more, but he would be involved in negotiating the contracts. “There are many boats and planes we are, individually spending too much on...We will get a lot more product for our buck....We saved ¢700m plus on a F35 after I got involved... We saved a lot of money on aeroplanes and that money will substantially increase.” | In the pre-recorded interview, he was asked whether his $54bn to be spent on defence was enough and said it could be $30bn more, but he would be involved in negotiating the contracts. “There are many boats and planes we are, individually spending too much on...We will get a lot more product for our buck....We saved ¢700m plus on a F35 after I got involved... We saved a lot of money on aeroplanes and that money will substantially increase.” |
| "We will be having the greatest military that we ever had by the time I finish." -@POTUS pic.twitter.com/Nt6AouQfsZ | "We will be having the greatest military that we ever had by the time I finish." -@POTUS pic.twitter.com/Nt6AouQfsZ |
| Here’s our report of a pre-released segment where Trump accuses Barack Obama of organising protests against him. | Here’s our report of a pre-released segment where Trump accuses Barack Obama of organising protests against him. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.17am GMT | at 11.17am GMT |
| 11.01am GMT | 11.01am GMT |
| 11:01 | 11:01 |
| Troika inspectors return to Greece | Troika inspectors return to Greece |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Over in Greece bailout monitors are resuming a stalled compliance review that recently reignited fears over the country’s ability to remain in the euro. From Athens, Helena Smith reports: | Over in Greece bailout monitors are resuming a stalled compliance review that recently reignited fears over the country’s ability to remain in the euro. From Athens, Helena Smith reports: |
| In a long-awaited moment for Greece, the anxiously awaited return of monitors has finally begun. This morning, inspectors representing the European Commission, euro zone bailout fund, IMF and European Central Bank all filed into the finance ministry to discuss energy reforms, fiscal issues and privatizations. | In a long-awaited moment for Greece, the anxiously awaited return of monitors has finally begun. This morning, inspectors representing the European Commission, euro zone bailout fund, IMF and European Central Bank all filed into the finance ministry to discuss energy reforms, fiscal issues and privatizations. |
| Testing Athens’ compliance with agreed reforms is at the heart of the review, a review that once completed will be key to releasing the €7bn plus the country requires to honour debt repayments in July. But, so too, are differences over a raft of new reforms that creditors want Athens to adopt once its current three-year €86bn rescue programme in August 2018. | Testing Athens’ compliance with agreed reforms is at the heart of the review, a review that once completed will be key to releasing the €7bn plus the country requires to honour debt repayments in July. But, so too, are differences over a raft of new reforms that creditors want Athens to adopt once its current three-year €86bn rescue programme in August 2018. |
| Without further pension cuts and tax hikes, the IMF does not think Greece will be able to achieve the high primary surplus of 3.5 % that eurozone lenders are demanding as of next year. The monitors, who are backed by technical teams, are keen to make enough progress so that the IMF – which has advised but not formally signed up to the bailout – finally participates in the programme. | Without further pension cuts and tax hikes, the IMF does not think Greece will be able to achieve the high primary surplus of 3.5 % that eurozone lenders are demanding as of next year. The monitors, who are backed by technical teams, are keen to make enough progress so that the IMF – which has advised but not formally signed up to the bailout – finally participates in the programme. |
| For leading lenders such as Germany and the Netherlands, IMF oversight is key to easing concerns in an electoral year that good money is not being thrown after bad when it comes to Greece. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras believes the review can be concluded by March 20 when the eurogroup next meets. Auditors have signalled they do not wish to be in Athens for more than a week. | For leading lenders such as Germany and the Netherlands, IMF oversight is key to easing concerns in an electoral year that good money is not being thrown after bad when it comes to Greece. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras believes the review can be concluded by March 20 when the eurogroup next meets. Auditors have signalled they do not wish to be in Athens for more than a week. |
| But it is a tight deadline that many also recognise will be a tall order. Although both sides will be working on an initial agreement reached in Brussels last week, a great deal of bargaining over the type of counter measures Athens can expect to reduce the impact of further cuts is likely to dominate the days ahead. Lenders also want to liberalise the energy and labour markets – reforms that are highly controversial for leftists in the governing Syriza party. “Our hope is that we can deal with collective bargaining and other sensitive issues after we have made enough technical progress to complete the review,” said one Syriza insider. “There is a feeling that we are being pushed a great deal but the alternative [euro exit] would be worse.” | But it is a tight deadline that many also recognise will be a tall order. Although both sides will be working on an initial agreement reached in Brussels last week, a great deal of bargaining over the type of counter measures Athens can expect to reduce the impact of further cuts is likely to dominate the days ahead. Lenders also want to liberalise the energy and labour markets – reforms that are highly controversial for leftists in the governing Syriza party. “Our hope is that we can deal with collective bargaining and other sensitive issues after we have made enough technical progress to complete the review,” said one Syriza insider. “There is a feeling that we are being pushed a great deal but the alternative [euro exit] would be worse.” |
| 10.39am GMT | 10.39am GMT |
| 10:39 | 10:39 |
| In South Korea, more problems for Samsung. Justin McCurry reports: | In South Korea, more problems for Samsung. Justin McCurry reports: |
| The acting head of Samsung is to be indicted on bribery and embezzlement charges connected to a corruption and cronyism scandal centring on South Korea’s impeached president, Park Geun-hye. | The acting head of Samsung is to be indicted on bribery and embezzlement charges connected to a corruption and cronyism scandal centring on South Korea’s impeached president, Park Geun-hye. |
| Lee Jae-yong and four other Samsung executives will almost certainly face trial over accusations that South Korea’s biggest conglomerate donated millions of dollars to foundations run by a close friend of Park’s in exchange for government favours. | Lee Jae-yong and four other Samsung executives will almost certainly face trial over accusations that South Korea’s biggest conglomerate donated millions of dollars to foundations run by a close friend of Park’s in exchange for government favours. |
| Later on Tuesday, Lee, who is officially Samsung’s vice-president but has in effect run the company since his father suffered a heart attack in 2014, will be charged with bribery, embezzlement, hiding assets overseas and committing perjury before parliament, prosecutors said on the final day of their investigation into a scandal that has rocked the country’s political and business worlds. | Later on Tuesday, Lee, who is officially Samsung’s vice-president but has in effect run the company since his father suffered a heart attack in 2014, will be charged with bribery, embezzlement, hiding assets overseas and committing perjury before parliament, prosecutors said on the final day of their investigation into a scandal that has rocked the country’s political and business worlds. |
| The four executives, who all face the same charges as Lee except perjury, are the Samsung group’s vice-chairman, Choi Gee-sung, and president, Chang Choong-ki, as well as Samsung Electronics’ president, Park Sang-jin, and executive vice-president, Hwang Sung-soo. | The four executives, who all face the same charges as Lee except perjury, are the Samsung group’s vice-chairman, Choi Gee-sung, and president, Chang Choong-ki, as well as Samsung Electronics’ president, Park Sang-jin, and executive vice-president, Hwang Sung-soo. |
| Some of the executives will resign and leave Samsung, but Lee is expected to stay on as de facto head of the company if there is a trial. | Some of the executives will resign and leave Samsung, but Lee is expected to stay on as de facto head of the company if there is a trial. |
| The full story is here: | The full story is here: |
| 10.18am GMT | 10.18am GMT |
| 10:18 | 10:18 |
| Over in Europe and there has been a strong rise in Italian inflation, which is likely to boost the overall eurozone figure: | Over in Europe and there has been a strong rise in Italian inflation, which is likely to boost the overall eurozone figure: |
| Likelihood of #Eurozone #consumer #price #inflation rising in Feb (1.8% in Jan) lifted by #Italian HICP inflation jumping to 1.6% from 1.0% | Likelihood of #Eurozone #consumer #price #inflation rising in Feb (1.8% in Jan) lifted by #Italian HICP inflation jumping to 1.6% from 1.0% |
| 10.10am GMT | 10.10am GMT |
| 10:10 | 10:10 |
| Here’s Reuters’ first take on Charlotte Hogg’s appearance at the Treasury Committee: | Here’s Reuters’ first take on Charlotte Hogg’s appearance at the Treasury Committee: |
| Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlotte Hogg, who will join the central bank’s top policy committees next month, said on Tuesday she would be able to stand up to BoE Governor Mark Carney if required. | Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlotte Hogg, who will join the central bank’s top policy committees next month, said on Tuesday she would be able to stand up to BoE Governor Mark Carney if required. |
| Hogg, who is currently the Bank’s chief operating officer, also said she did not think there was a culture of group-think at the Bank. | Hogg, who is currently the Bank’s chief operating officer, also said she did not think there was a culture of group-think at the Bank. |
| Asked by a committee of lawmakers if she thought she would be able to stand up publicly to Carney, Hogg said: “I do.” | Asked by a committee of lawmakers if she thought she would be able to stand up publicly to Carney, Hogg said: “I do.” |
| She said she had already had disagreements with Carney in her current role over staffing and organisational issues. | She said she had already had disagreements with Carney in her current role over staffing and organisational issues. |
| Hogg replaces Minouche Shafik as deputy governor for markets and banking. She will serve on the Bank’s monetary, financial and prudential regulation policy committees. | Hogg replaces Minouche Shafik as deputy governor for markets and banking. She will serve on the Bank’s monetary, financial and prudential regulation policy committees. |
| 9.47am GMT | 9.47am GMT |
| 09:47 | 09:47 |
| BoE's Hogg: When Unwinding QE, BoE Will Do So In A Way That Is Mindful Of The Need To Maintain Orderly Markets | BoE's Hogg: When Unwinding QE, BoE Will Do So In A Way That Is Mindful Of The Need To Maintain Orderly Markets |
| BoE's Hogg: MPC Must Be Clear About Its Intentions When Unwinding QE In Order To Avoid An ‘Unintended Move’ In Gilt Yields | BoE's Hogg: MPC Must Be Clear About Its Intentions When Unwinding QE In Order To Avoid An ‘Unintended Move’ In Gilt Yields |
| 9.43am GMT | 9.43am GMT |
| 09:43 | 09:43 |
| Bank of England's Charlotte Hogg at Treasury Committee | Bank of England's Charlotte Hogg at Treasury Committee |
| Charlotte Hogg is up before MPs being quizzed about her appointment as the Bank of England’s deputy governor. | Charlotte Hogg is up before MPs being quizzed about her appointment as the Bank of England’s deputy governor. |
| (There is a live link here) | (There is a live link here) |
| BoE's Hogg: ‘GroupThink Is Not Alive And Well’ At BoE | BoE's Hogg: ‘GroupThink Is Not Alive And Well’ At BoE |
| BoE's Hogg Says She Is Able To Challenge BoE’s Carney Publicly | BoE's Hogg Says She Is Able To Challenge BoE’s Carney Publicly |
| BoE's Hogg: Fwrd Guidance Must Cover Things Like BoE Statements On How To Exit QE | BoE's Hogg: Fwrd Guidance Must Cover Things Like BoE Statements On How To Exit QE |
| She says low interest rates are a global phenomenon and not just in the UK. | She says low interest rates are a global phenomenon and not just in the UK. |
| BoE's Hogg: Structural Elements To Low Interest Rates | BoE's Hogg: Structural Elements To Low Interest Rates |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.43am GMT | at 9.43am GMT |
| 9.20am GMT | 9.20am GMT |
| 09:20 | 09:20 |
| Pound flat against dollar and euro | Pound flat against dollar and euro |
| The prospect of an imminent US rate rise is supporting the dollar, and putting a dampener on any chance of the pound regaining lost ground. | The prospect of an imminent US rate rise is supporting the dollar, and putting a dampener on any chance of the pound regaining lost ground. |
| Sterling is currently virtually flat at $1.2440 having earlier fallen to $1.2413. Against the euro the pound is down 0.05% at €1.1743. | Sterling is currently virtually flat at $1.2440 having earlier fallen to $1.2413. Against the euro the pound is down 0.05% at €1.1743. |
| 9.16am GMT | 9.16am GMT |
| 09:16 | 09:16 |
| Chances of US rate rise in March increase | Chances of US rate rise in March increase |
| Back with the US, and the chances of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting are increasing, whatever Donald Trump may announce about his tax and spending plans. | Back with the US, and the chances of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting are increasing, whatever Donald Trump may announce about his tax and spending plans. |
| On Monday, Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan - who had previously said a rise should come sooner rather than later - clarified his point at a meeting in Oklahoma: | On Monday, Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan - who had previously said a rise should come sooner rather than later - clarified his point at a meeting in Oklahoma: |
| Sooner rather than later means in the near future. | Sooner rather than later means in the near future. |
| Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, believes the Fed should get on with it. He said: | Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, believes the Fed should get on with it. He said: |
| For the last few weeks markets have been weighing up the prospect of whether the US Federal Reserve will look to raise rates at its March meeting. | For the last few weeks markets have been weighing up the prospect of whether the US Federal Reserve will look to raise rates at its March meeting. |
| The odds of a move have fluctuated between lows of 24% at the beginning of February and a peak of 44% in the wake of Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s testimony to US lawmakers on Capitol Hill when she said that it would be “unwise” to wait too long before raising rates. | The odds of a move have fluctuated between lows of 24% at the beginning of February and a peak of 44% in the wake of Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s testimony to US lawmakers on Capitol Hill when she said that it would be “unwise” to wait too long before raising rates. |
| Since that January Fed meeting it has been clear that the US economy has continued to show signs of improvement, and while the probability of a Fed rate rise has now risen to 50%, certain members of the committee appear paralysed by concerns about what the new US President might look to do with respect to his tax and fiscal policy... | Since that January Fed meeting it has been clear that the US economy has continued to show signs of improvement, and while the probability of a Fed rate rise has now risen to 50%, certain members of the committee appear paralysed by concerns about what the new US President might look to do with respect to his tax and fiscal policy... |
| Today the President is due to address a joint session of Congress, and it is clear that we can expect to see him flesh out in greater detail of his new fiscal plans, with the eyes of the markets and the world on him, and with US markets continuing to push to new record highs on an almost daily basis. | Today the President is due to address a joint session of Congress, and it is clear that we can expect to see him flesh out in greater detail of his new fiscal plans, with the eyes of the markets and the world on him, and with US markets continuing to push to new record highs on an almost daily basis. |
| We already know that he intends to spend $54bn on defence and infrastructure whilst making cuts elsewhere to pay for them. | We already know that he intends to spend $54bn on defence and infrastructure whilst making cuts elsewhere to pay for them. |
| Is the US economy so weak that a 25 basis point rise on the upper band from 0.75% to 1% will spook investors? I think not. | Is the US economy so weak that a 25 basis point rise on the upper band from 0.75% to 1% will spook investors? I think not. |
| Fed policymakers have already acknowledged that a substantial fiscal boost in terms of tax cuts could prompt a much sharper policy response which would suggest that irrespective of what Mr Trump announces today higher rates are already needed, so why wait? | Fed policymakers have already acknowledged that a substantial fiscal boost in terms of tax cuts could prompt a much sharper policy response which would suggest that irrespective of what Mr Trump announces today higher rates are already needed, so why wait? |
| 9.08am GMT | 9.08am GMT |
| 09:08 | 09:08 |
| Greggs shares slip after results | Greggs shares slip after results |
| Improving its product range - away from just sausage rolls and pasties and on to healthier items - has helped food retailer Greggs beat expectations with its full year figures. | Improving its product range - away from just sausage rolls and pasties and on to healthier items - has helped food retailer Greggs beat expectations with its full year figures. |
| But signs of a slowdown in like-for-like sales so far in the current year have knocked its shares back more than 3% to 980p - albeit they have risen 10% in the past three months. | But signs of a slowdown in like-for-like sales so far in the current year have knocked its shares back more than 3% to 980p - albeit they have risen 10% in the past three months. |
| Overall, profits for 2016 rose 105 to £80.3m, compared to forecasts of around £79m. Like for like sales climbed 4.2%, and while the company said trading in the current year was in line with expectations, like for like sales slowed in the eight weeks to February 25, up 2%. Analyst Darren Shirley at Shore Capital said: | Overall, profits for 2016 rose 105 to £80.3m, compared to forecasts of around £79m. Like for like sales climbed 4.2%, and while the company said trading in the current year was in line with expectations, like for like sales slowed in the eight weeks to February 25, up 2%. Analyst Darren Shirley at Shore Capital said: |
| Current like for like trading in the 8 weeks of the year-to-date has been subdued relative to recent years, with company managed like for like sales up 2.0% (said to be 2.9% excluding the New Year trading pattern), which is said to be inline in-line with management expectations. However, total sales are reported up 5.8% which is ahead of our full year expectation of 4.8%, so Greggs are a little ahead of our expectations at this still early stage of the year. | Current like for like trading in the 8 weeks of the year-to-date has been subdued relative to recent years, with company managed like for like sales up 2.0% (said to be 2.9% excluding the New Year trading pattern), which is said to be inline in-line with management expectations. However, total sales are reported up 5.8% which is ahead of our full year expectation of 4.8%, so Greggs are a little ahead of our expectations at this still early stage of the year. |
| 8.28am GMT | 8.28am GMT |
| 08:28 | 08:28 |
| Another big faller in Moneysupermarket.com, down 11% after its final results. | Another big faller in Moneysupermarket.com, down 11% after its final results. |
| It reported a 16% rise in profits but warned revenues in the current year were below those in 2016, partly due to low interest rates weakening savings and current account switching, and falling trade in the energy business. Liberum analysts said: | It reported a 16% rise in profits but warned revenues in the current year were below those in 2016, partly due to low interest rates weakening savings and current account switching, and falling trade in the energy business. Liberum analysts said: |
| MoneySupermarket has reported 2016 results this morning and given the full year trading update in January there were no surprises with regards to headline numbers. Our concern with Moneysupermarket has always been that revenue growth is linked to marketing spend and therefore margins could come under pressure going forward as competition in the price comparison website space intensifies. These results have realised our concerns, increased marketing spend drove the majority of the 520 basis point decline in gross margins to 74.8%. Trading for 2017 is behind 2016.... management has also guided gross margins to be 73% for 2017 which is 300 basis points below Liberum estimates of 76%. | MoneySupermarket has reported 2016 results this morning and given the full year trading update in January there were no surprises with regards to headline numbers. Our concern with Moneysupermarket has always been that revenue growth is linked to marketing spend and therefore margins could come under pressure going forward as competition in the price comparison website space intensifies. These results have realised our concerns, increased marketing spend drove the majority of the 520 basis point decline in gross margins to 74.8%. Trading for 2017 is behind 2016.... management has also guided gross margins to be 73% for 2017 which is 300 basis points below Liberum estimates of 76%. |
| 8.20am GMT | 8.20am GMT |
| 08:20 | 08:20 |
| Southern Rail operator Go-Ahead slumps 14% after results | Southern Rail operator Go-Ahead slumps 14% after results |
| Bus and train operator Go-Ahead has warned on its outlook, mainly due to the continuing strike actions on Southern Rail. | Bus and train operator Go-Ahead has warned on its outlook, mainly due to the continuing strike actions on Southern Rail. |
| It said its full year expectations were lowered due to “challenges in GTR [which runs the Thameslink, Great Northern, Southern and Gatwick Express rail franchises] and a slowdown in passenger numbers in regional bus.” On the strike, which has inconvenienced and angered commuters for months, it said: | It said its full year expectations were lowered due to “challenges in GTR [which runs the Thameslink, Great Northern, Southern and Gatwick Express rail franchises] and a slowdown in passenger numbers in regional bus.” On the strike, which has inconvenienced and angered commuters for months, it said: |
| Lengthy and significant industrial relations issues at GTR related to the modernisation of working practices, required by the contract, have caused months of disrupted travel. We are working towards a resolution so we can provide a reliable service for customers. | Lengthy and significant industrial relations issues at GTR related to the modernisation of working practices, required by the contract, have caused months of disrupted travel. We are working towards a resolution so we can provide a reliable service for customers. |
| Rail profits for the half year fell by 35% due to the Southern dispute, and the company’s overall profits dropped 11.7% to £67m. | Rail profits for the half year fell by 35% due to the Southern dispute, and the company’s overall profits dropped 11.7% to £67m. |
| Even so, the company has raised its dividend to shareholders by 6.5%, justfied by “stable bus profits.” | Even so, the company has raised its dividend to shareholders by 6.5%, justfied by “stable bus profits.” |
| That has failed to save its share price, however, which is down 14% at £19.66. Analysts at Investec said: | That has failed to save its share price, however, which is down 14% at £19.66. Analysts at Investec said: |
| Go-Ahead has reported half year results broadly in line with our forecasts at the divisional level, with the exception of GTR which was weaker due to industrial action. However, expectations for the full year have been lowered given the slowdown in passenger volumes in Regional Bus, higher insurance costs and additional costs and delays to expected efficiencies for GTR as the industrial action is ongoing. We therefore reduce our forecasts, cut our target price to 2300p and lower our recommendation to add. | Go-Ahead has reported half year results broadly in line with our forecasts at the divisional level, with the exception of GTR which was weaker due to industrial action. However, expectations for the full year have been lowered given the slowdown in passenger volumes in Regional Bus, higher insurance costs and additional costs and delays to expected efficiencies for GTR as the industrial action is ongoing. We therefore reduce our forecasts, cut our target price to 2300p and lower our recommendation to add. |
| Jefferies, which remains a buyer of the shares, has cut its 2017 profit forecast by 4% and its 2018 prediction by 7%. | Jefferies, which remains a buyer of the shares, has cut its 2017 profit forecast by 4% and its 2018 prediction by 7%. |
| 8.07am GMT | 8.07am GMT |
| 08:07 | 08:07 |
| European markets edge higher | European markets edge higher |
| As expected, the record close on Wall Street has given a lift - albeit a slight one - to European shares. | As expected, the record close on Wall Street has given a lift - albeit a slight one - to European shares. |
| The FTSE 100 is up 0.06% in early trading, Germany’s Dax has opened 0.2% higher, France’s Cac has climbed 0.4%, Spain’s Ibex 0.5% and Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.3%. | The FTSE 100 is up 0.06% in early trading, Germany’s Dax has opened 0.2% higher, France’s Cac has climbed 0.4%, Spain’s Ibex 0.5% and Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.3%. |
| 7.57am GMT | 7.57am GMT |
| 07:57 | 07:57 |
| Over in France, and the country’s economy grew by 0.4% in the final quarter last year, in line with initial estimates. | Over in France, and the country’s economy grew by 0.4% in the final quarter last year, in line with initial estimates. |
| So overall for 2016, it grew by 1.1%, also unchanged from the first estimates. | So overall for 2016, it grew by 1.1%, also unchanged from the first estimates. |
| Elsewhere: | Elsewhere: |
| French Consumer Spending (MoM) Jan: 0.60% (est 0.60%; rev prev -1.00%)-(YoY) Jan: 1.40% (est 1.60%; rev prev 1.30%) | French Consumer Spending (MoM) Jan: 0.60% (est 0.60%; rev prev -1.00%)-(YoY) Jan: 1.40% (est 1.60%; rev prev 1.30%) |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.59am GMT | at 7.59am GMT |
| 7.46am GMT | 7.46am GMT |
| 07:46 | 07:46 |
| A positive start is expected in Europe after yet another record breaking run in the US: | A positive start is expected in Europe after yet another record breaking run in the US: |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7269 up 16$DAX 11841 up 19$CAC 4855 up 10$IBEX 9485 up 21$MIB 18967 up 53 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7269 up 16$DAX 11841 up 19$CAC 4855 up 10$IBEX 9485 up 21$MIB 18967 up 53 |
| 7.45am GMT | 7.45am GMT |
| 07:45 | 07:45 |
| Agenda: US data due, Osborne at BCC conference, Hogg at Treasury Committee | Agenda: US data due, Osborne at BCC conference, Hogg at Treasury Committee |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The US is in focus today, with trade figures for January and the final reading for fourth quarter GDP. The trade deficit is expected to widen to $66bn from $65bn in December, something which is likely to exercise President Trump with his protectionist tendencies. As for GDP, analysts expect an annualised rate of 2.1% for the quarter, up from 1.9%. Overall the US economy is forecast to have grown at 1.6% in 2016, a growth rate Trump’s team have consistenty criticised as too slow. | The US is in focus today, with trade figures for January and the final reading for fourth quarter GDP. The trade deficit is expected to widen to $66bn from $65bn in December, something which is likely to exercise President Trump with his protectionist tendencies. As for GDP, analysts expect an annualised rate of 2.1% for the quarter, up from 1.9%. Overall the US economy is forecast to have grown at 1.6% in 2016, a growth rate Trump’s team have consistenty criticised as too slow. |
| But Republican financial John Bogle, who founded the world’s second largest investment group Vanguard, told the BBC’s Wake up to Money that Trump’s plans to grow the US economy at 4% annually were unlikely to succeed. He said: | But Republican financial John Bogle, who founded the world’s second largest investment group Vanguard, told the BBC’s Wake up to Money that Trump’s plans to grow the US economy at 4% annually were unlikely to succeed. He said: |
| There are certain limits, irrespective of whoever sits in the White House. | There are certain limits, irrespective of whoever sits in the White House. |
| He added that building trade barriers would be madness and reducing immigration would harm the US economy. | He added that building trade barriers would be madness and reducing immigration would harm the US economy. |
| Meanwhile, after the US markets close - at 9pm Washington time, 2am GMT - Trump will be making his long awaited address to Congress with the promise of spelling out some of his plans in detail. We already had a flavour on Monday, with Trump’s talk of increased defence and infrastructure spending, probably at the expense of the environment and foreign aid. | Meanwhile, after the US markets close - at 9pm Washington time, 2am GMT - Trump will be making his long awaited address to Congress with the promise of spelling out some of his plans in detail. We already had a flavour on Monday, with Trump’s talk of increased defence and infrastructure spending, probably at the expense of the environment and foreign aid. |
| But it seems that Trump’s “phenomenal” tax reforms might have to wait. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK, said: | But it seems that Trump’s “phenomenal” tax reforms might have to wait. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK, said: |
| Was there any disappointment yesterday when some details were released ahead of Mr Trump’s most anticipated speech? Well, yes. It turns out that we are not going to receive any details about the anticipated tax plan and the timeframe for said plan is also vague. All we know is that it will happen sometime after a new healthcare bill replacing Obamacare has been introduced, again, something we have yet to receive a date for. | Was there any disappointment yesterday when some details were released ahead of Mr Trump’s most anticipated speech? Well, yes. It turns out that we are not going to receive any details about the anticipated tax plan and the timeframe for said plan is also vague. All we know is that it will happen sometime after a new healthcare bill replacing Obamacare has been introduced, again, something we have yet to receive a date for. |
| This was not something the markets were expecting especially after rousing the rally by describing his tax plans as “phenomenal”. What we saw last night was disappointment across the board when the news hit. But it would be wrong to write off Mr Trump yet, as he is never short of surprises. Despite his lack of information, the market rallied, recording another record high. | This was not something the markets were expecting especially after rousing the rally by describing his tax plans as “phenomenal”. What we saw last night was disappointment across the board when the news hit. But it would be wrong to write off Mr Trump yet, as he is never short of surprises. Despite his lack of information, the market rallied, recording another record high. |
| Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high for the twelfth day in a row, and European markets are expected to open higher as a result. | Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high for the twelfth day in a row, and European markets are expected to open higher as a result. |
| Also on the agenda, the British Chambers of Commerce holds its annual conference in London, with regional development and Brexit on the agenda and appearances scheduled from former chancellor George Osborne, mayoral hopefuls Andy Street and Andy Burnham and shadow chancellor John McDonnell. | Also on the agenda, the British Chambers of Commerce holds its annual conference in London, with regional development and Brexit on the agenda and appearances scheduled from former chancellor George Osborne, mayoral hopefuls Andy Street and Andy Burnham and shadow chancellor John McDonnell. |
| Elsewhere Charlotte Hogg will be at a Treasury committee hearing to discuss her appointment as the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking. | Elsewhere Charlotte Hogg will be at a Treasury committee hearing to discuss her appointment as the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking. |
| And there are results from Go-Ahead and Greggs. | And there are results from Go-Ahead and Greggs. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.03am GMT | at 8.03am GMT |