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More voters see Malcolm Turnbull as out of touch and arrogant, Guardian Essential poll shows | |
(about 4 hours later) | |
Malcolm Turnbull is rated by Australian voters as intelligent and hardworking but he also scores highly on some key negatives – like being out of touch with ordinary people, and arrogant, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. | Malcolm Turnbull is rated by Australian voters as intelligent and hardworking but he also scores highly on some key negatives – like being out of touch with ordinary people, and arrogant, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. |
The new survey suggests the prime minister’s negatives have crept up since the same questions were asked last September. Turnbull is now considered less visionary (down 5%) and more narrow-minded (up 3%). | The new survey suggests the prime minister’s negatives have crept up since the same questions were asked last September. Turnbull is now considered less visionary (down 5%) and more narrow-minded (up 3%). |
He has also lost ground on intelligent, good in a crisis, trustworthy and more honest than most politicians – which are all down 3%. | He has also lost ground on intelligent, good in a crisis, trustworthy and more honest than most politicians – which are all down 3%. |
By contrast, the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, is considered by voters to be hardworking (61%) and intelligent (60%) and people think he understands the problems facing Australia (48%). | By contrast, the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, is considered by voters to be hardworking (61%) and intelligent (60%) and people think he understands the problems facing Australia (48%). |
But voters are more likely now than they were last September to think he is intolerant (up 3%) and his rating for visionary is down 3%. | But voters are more likely now than they were last September to think he is intolerant (up 3%) and his rating for visionary is down 3%. |
The latest Guardian Essential survey has Labor leading the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure 53% to 47%, which is a one-point movement from last week’s survey. | The latest Guardian Essential survey has Labor leading the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure 53% to 47%, which is a one-point movement from last week’s survey. |
The movement is within the margin of error but it is in the same direction as this week’s Newspoll – although that poll has the opposition opening up a commanding 10-point lead over the Turnbull government. | The movement is within the margin of error but it is in the same direction as this week’s Newspoll – although that poll has the opposition opening up a commanding 10-point lead over the Turnbull government. |
The latest Newspoll has One Nation doubling its primary vote to 10% since November, now matching the Greens, and it suggests the government is losing some of its support to Hanson. | The latest Newspoll has One Nation doubling its primary vote to 10% since November, now matching the Greens, and it suggests the government is losing some of its support to Hanson. |
Essential this week has Hanson polling 9% and other/independents on 6%. | Essential this week has Hanson polling 9% and other/independents on 6%. |
Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media, points out in a column for Guardian Australia that while Turnbull’s negatives have increased with the public since his heady ratings after taking the Liberal party leadership, he still remains streets ahead of the man he replaced, Tony Abbott. | Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media, points out in a column for Guardian Australia that while Turnbull’s negatives have increased with the public since his heady ratings after taking the Liberal party leadership, he still remains streets ahead of the man he replaced, Tony Abbott. |
Abbott has been again stirring the pot, using a book launch last Thursday night to unveil a sweeping conservative manifesto for the next federal election, declaring the Coalition needed to cut immigration, slash the renewable energy target, abolish the Human Rights Commission and gut the capacity of the Senate to be a roadblock to the government’s agenda. | Abbott has been again stirring the pot, using a book launch last Thursday night to unveil a sweeping conservative manifesto for the next federal election, declaring the Coalition needed to cut immigration, slash the renewable energy target, abolish the Human Rights Commission and gut the capacity of the Senate to be a roadblock to the government’s agenda. |
The speech contained a number of potshots at Turnbull. Abbott also warned the government would not win the next election unless it won back the conservative base – an intervention that continues to reverberate at the opening of the new parliamentary week. | The speech contained a number of potshots at Turnbull. Abbott also warned the government would not win the next election unless it won back the conservative base – an intervention that continues to reverberate at the opening of the new parliamentary week. |
The sortie has prompted a significant pushback by senior conservatives, who have declared the former prime minister has no path back to the party leadership. Even though the poll trend has been against the government in recent months, Turnbull blamed Abbott’s intervention for the Coalition’s poor Newspoll showing on Monday. | The sortie has prompted a significant pushback by senior conservatives, who have declared the former prime minister has no path back to the party leadership. Even though the poll trend has been against the government in recent months, Turnbull blamed Abbott’s intervention for the Coalition’s poor Newspoll showing on Monday. |
Lewis says on all the indicators of leader attributes, bar one, “Abbott is ranked demonstrably lower [than Turnbull] in positive and higher on negatives”. | Lewis says on all the indicators of leader attributes, bar one, “Abbott is ranked demonstrably lower [than Turnbull] in positive and higher on negatives”. |
“Even with Turnbull’s steady decline in personal regard, Abbott’s numbers are significantly worse – net 20% higher on erratic, net 16 on aggressive, net 18 on narrow-minded,” he said. “In terms of positives, Turnbull is up 10 points on vision, 10 on capability and a whopping 21 points on intelligence.” | “Even with Turnbull’s steady decline in personal regard, Abbott’s numbers are significantly worse – net 20% higher on erratic, net 16 on aggressive, net 18 on narrow-minded,” he said. “In terms of positives, Turnbull is up 10 points on vision, 10 on capability and a whopping 21 points on intelligence.” |
This week’s poll put a number of questions about housing affordability and energy prices. | This week’s poll put a number of questions about housing affordability and energy prices. |
With tax concessions for housing back briefly on the political agenda, before the government moved to kill off the nascent debate a couple of weeks ago, the poll shows 44% approve of negative gearing and 35% disapprove. | With tax concessions for housing back briefly on the political agenda, before the government moved to kill off the nascent debate a couple of weeks ago, the poll shows 44% approve of negative gearing and 35% disapprove. |
It also indicates 37% approve of property investors receiving a reduction in capital gains tax and 41% disapprove. | It also indicates 37% approve of property investors receiving a reduction in capital gains tax and 41% disapprove. |
Turnbull moved mid-month to shut down suggestions his government would consider curbing capital gains tax concessions for property investors as part of a broader policy effort it has been telegraphing for months on housing affordability. | Turnbull moved mid-month to shut down suggestions his government would consider curbing capital gains tax concessions for property investors as part of a broader policy effort it has been telegraphing for months on housing affordability. |
A majority of voters (51%) thought that limiting negative gearing and reducing the concession on capital gains tax would have an impact on house prices, with 19% thinking house prices would fall and 32% believing they would rise at a slower rate. | A majority of voters (51%) thought that limiting negative gearing and reducing the concession on capital gains tax would have an impact on house prices, with 19% thinking house prices would fall and 32% believing they would rise at a slower rate. |
Only 17% thought house prices would continue to rise at the same rate. | Only 17% thought house prices would continue to rise at the same rate. |
Asked to nominate which was a more important issue for them – government action on housing affordability or government action on rising energy prices – the sample was split. | Asked to nominate which was a more important issue for them – government action on housing affordability or government action on rising energy prices – the sample was split. |
Forty-six per cent think housing affordability is a more important issue and 44% think rising energy prices are a more important issue. | Forty-six per cent think housing affordability is a more important issue and 44% think rising energy prices are a more important issue. |
Voters are also still keen on a royal commission into the banking sector. Nearly two-thirds (64%) supported a royal commission and 16% opposed. The support and opposition for the royal commission have remained steady since August 2016. | Voters are also still keen on a royal commission into the banking sector. Nearly two-thirds (64%) supported a royal commission and 16% opposed. The support and opposition for the royal commission have remained steady since August 2016. |
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