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The Guardian view on byelections: as much about Labour as Brexit The Guardian view on byelections: as much about Labour as Brexit
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Parliamentary byelections always tell an important story, but care is always needed in putting those stories into a national contest. Yesterday’s two byelections in formerly deep-dyed traditional Labour seats fit that mould. The big headline is Trudy Harrison’s capture of Copeland for the Conservatives. The Tories and their press supporters will understandably be cock-a-hoop. Labour dismay at the loss will trigger more recriminations. Yet Labour held on in Stoke Central, a contest in which many initially wrote them off, and even increased their margin of victory compared with 2015. The threatened Ukip landslide, widely taken for granted beforehand, never happened. The Liberal Democrats’ recent surge was not repeated either. Parliamentary byelections always tell an important story, but care is always needed in putting those stories into a national context. Yesterday’s two byelections in formerly deep-dyed traditional Labour seats fit that mould. The big headline is Trudy Harrison’s capture of Copeland for the Conservatives. The Tories and their press supporters will understandably be cock-a-hoop. Labour dismay at the loss will trigger more recriminations. Yet Labour held on in Stoke Central, a contest in which many initially wrote them off, and even increased their margin of victory compared with 2015. The threatened Ukip landslide, widely taken for granted beforehand, never happened. The Liberal Democrats’ recent surge was not repeated either.
The Conservative victory in Copeland is without question an exceptional result for Theresa May and a humbling for Jeremy Corbyn. Some of that is down to local factors, in particular the Labour leader’s dislike of the nuclear power industry on which west Cumbria is so economically dependent. The region is one of many in which traditional Labour voters still baulk at switching to the Tories, but when so many jobs are at stake it can happen. No governing party has won a byelection from the main opposition party since 1982 and yesterday was only the fourth time this has happened since 1945. The Tory capture of Copeland thus sends a big message. It underlines Mrs May’s and the Tories’ current and growing ascendancy in English politics. But it also hints at the larger potential of Mrs May’s form of conservatism to capture the centre ground of English politics – though she will have to persuade her party too .The Conservative victory in Copeland is without question an exceptional result for Theresa May and a humbling for Jeremy Corbyn. Some of that is down to local factors, in particular the Labour leader’s dislike of the nuclear power industry on which west Cumbria is so economically dependent. The region is one of many in which traditional Labour voters still baulk at switching to the Tories, but when so many jobs are at stake it can happen. No governing party has won a byelection from the main opposition party since 1982 and yesterday was only the fourth time this has happened since 1945. The Tory capture of Copeland thus sends a big message. It underlines Mrs May’s and the Tories’ current and growing ascendancy in English politics. But it also hints at the larger potential of Mrs May’s form of conservatism to capture the centre ground of English politics – though she will have to persuade her party too .
Yet in another sense the Tory win was hardly a bolt from the blue. The Copeland result was broadly in line with the latest Guardian/ICM national opinion poll, which had reported an enormous 18-point Tory lead over Labour. Crudely extrapolated, that poll would have pointed to a four per cent Tory win in Copeland and a six-point Labour win in Stoke. In fact Ms Harrison took Copeland by seven points, while Gareth Snell won by 12 in Stoke Central – not an enormous difference. The results therefore confirm the very obvious and well-established national truth, that Mrs May’s Tories are much more popular than Mr Corbyn’s Labour party, and getting more so.Yet in another sense the Tory win was hardly a bolt from the blue. The Copeland result was broadly in line with the latest Guardian/ICM national opinion poll, which had reported an enormous 18-point Tory lead over Labour. Crudely extrapolated, that poll would have pointed to a four per cent Tory win in Copeland and a six-point Labour win in Stoke. In fact Ms Harrison took Copeland by seven points, while Gareth Snell won by 12 in Stoke Central – not an enormous difference. The results therefore confirm the very obvious and well-established national truth, that Mrs May’s Tories are much more popular than Mr Corbyn’s Labour party, and getting more so.
Yet the byelection results support a second important conclusion as well. They seriously undermine the lazy assumption, peddled especially by some of the rightwing press but swallowed also by some in Labour and repeated in Mr Corbyn’s speech today, that the referendum redefined British party politics at a stroke. Both these constituencies were very clear Brexit supporters in 2016, yet their votes for Brexit did not give the byelections a new shape. Instead their shape is recognisably an old one. In Stoke, the shifts in party share of the vote between 2015 and 2017 were small. Even in Copeland they were modest. These byelections look more like traditional contests between England’s four main parties (five if you count the Greens) than local reruns of the Brexit argument. They were arguably at least as much about May versus Corbyn as about Britain and the EU.Yet the byelection results support a second important conclusion as well. They seriously undermine the lazy assumption, peddled especially by some of the rightwing press but swallowed also by some in Labour and repeated in Mr Corbyn’s speech today, that the referendum redefined British party politics at a stroke. Both these constituencies were very clear Brexit supporters in 2016, yet their votes for Brexit did not give the byelections a new shape. Instead their shape is recognisably an old one. In Stoke, the shifts in party share of the vote between 2015 and 2017 were small. Even in Copeland they were modest. These byelections look more like traditional contests between England’s four main parties (five if you count the Greens) than local reruns of the Brexit argument. They were arguably at least as much about May versus Corbyn as about Britain and the EU.
In some ways, therefore, the biggest losers this week were Ukip. When the byelections were triggered, many assumed that the seats, Stoke in particular, might be Ukip’s for the taking. Perhaps they might have been if the view that Brexit has revolutionised everything had been right. But it wasn’t. Ukip’s arrogance, divisions and obsessions were not what the voters turned out to want. Paul Nuttall, the party leader, staked his future on winning in Stoke. His flaws were ruthlessly exposed, in the press and on the stump. His future must therefore be in doubt. Another round of the Ukip leadership soap opera may beckon. Ukip is not dead. But claims that it is poised to sweep Labour aside have underestimated the good sense of the voters.In some ways, therefore, the biggest losers this week were Ukip. When the byelections were triggered, many assumed that the seats, Stoke in particular, might be Ukip’s for the taking. Perhaps they might have been if the view that Brexit has revolutionised everything had been right. But it wasn’t. Ukip’s arrogance, divisions and obsessions were not what the voters turned out to want. Paul Nuttall, the party leader, staked his future on winning in Stoke. His flaws were ruthlessly exposed, in the press and on the stump. His future must therefore be in doubt. Another round of the Ukip leadership soap opera may beckon. Ukip is not dead. But claims that it is poised to sweep Labour aside have underestimated the good sense of the voters.
Nevertheless, both contests were in seats that Labour has held since before the second world war. These are seats which it should have retained with ease if it was an effective opposition. In some of the earlier byelections in this parliament – such as Oldham West, Sheffield Brightside and Tooting – Labour did quite respectably. But not this week. The Labour vote was down by two points from 2015 in Stoke and by five in Copeland. There is nothing here for Labour to celebrate. The 2015 election was already a low base, from which Labour has once again declined. These results point to the continuing erosion of Labour as a credible governing party in modern Britain under Mr Corbyn. Maybe this is not terminal decline, but that is hardly a consolation for Labour wellwishers. Yes, Labour survives. But to what end? What is today’s Labour party for? This is a question which needs a better answer than Mr Corbyn is offering.Nevertheless, both contests were in seats that Labour has held since before the second world war. These are seats which it should have retained with ease if it was an effective opposition. In some of the earlier byelections in this parliament – such as Oldham West, Sheffield Brightside and Tooting – Labour did quite respectably. But not this week. The Labour vote was down by two points from 2015 in Stoke and by five in Copeland. There is nothing here for Labour to celebrate. The 2015 election was already a low base, from which Labour has once again declined. These results point to the continuing erosion of Labour as a credible governing party in modern Britain under Mr Corbyn. Maybe this is not terminal decline, but that is hardly a consolation for Labour wellwishers. Yes, Labour survives. But to what end? What is today’s Labour party for? This is a question which needs a better answer than Mr Corbyn is offering.