Olmert's staying power faces test

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By Wyre Davies BBC News, Jerusalem The slogan is about Israeli-US ties, but could equally refer to Mr Olmert

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is often referred to as the great political survivor.

Mr Olmert has confronted crisis after crisis. He has brushed off scandals and accusations that would have sunk other leaders in other less-forgiving political systems.

Again, just when it seemed as if he was looking down the barrel of a gun, he has struck a deal that keeps him in power - for the time being.

A vote, scheduled to take place in the Israeli parliament, which would have resulted in the dissolution of the Knesset and new elections, has been averted at the last minute.

Mr Olmert persuaded his junior coalition partners, the Labour party, not to vote in favour of dissolution if he, in turn, agreed to internal elections in his own Kadima Party this September.

As things stand - Ehud Olmert's ratings in opinion polls are very low and he is facing serious corruption allegations - he will lose the leadership election and will be replaced as Kadima leader (perhaps by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Shaul Mofaz, Avi Dichter or Meir Shetrit).

It also means, of course, that Mr Olmert would be replaced as prime minister in a new Kadima/Labour coalition government.

However, three months is a very long time in the politics of the Middle East and if anyone can wriggle off the hook, it is Ehud Olmert.

Tawdry affair

The challenges and charges faced by the 62-year-old veteran are daunting.

Most seriously, perhaps, he faces allegations that, when mayor of Jerusalem and later as a government minister, he received tens of thousands of dollars in loans and gifts from an American businessman.

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The businessman, Morris Talansky, says Mr Olmert used some of the cash - never cheques - to spend on luxury personal items including watches, expensive hotel suites and first-class air travel.

Ehud Olmert says he has done nothing illegal and used the money for legitimate political reasons.

The whole episode looks tawdry and is very bad for Mr Olmert. Whatever the truth about the finer points, reaction in Israel has been overwhelmingly negative.

Yet, Mr Talansky is due to be cross-examined by Olmert's lawyers in the coming months.

If that goes well for the PM and he escapes corruption charges, that is one less thing for him to worry about.

If only, for Ehud Olmert's sake, it was just about the cash.

Ever since the Lebanon war in 2006 when Israel failed to defeat Hezbollah, failed to release any of its captured soldiers and saw its northern towns coming under rocket fire, Mr Olmert has been regarded as weak leader by many Israelis.

An official report criticised the handling of the war and while that report was not fatal, it wounded the prime minister and his reputation.

Falling stock

His reputation that has been further eroded by the situation in Gaza.

Rightwing leader Bibi Netanyahu could take advantage of the crisis

There the Islamist group Hamas is in charge and the regular rocket fire from Gaza against Israeli border towns has led to demands from political hardliners and sectors of the electorate for a full-scale military invasion of the territory.

Those calls have largely gone unheeded by Mr Olmert, although hundreds of Gazans have been killed in Israeli air-strikes and bombardments.

After imposing an economic blockade against Gaza, the PM has now pinned his hopes on a ceasefire deal with Hamas - brokered by Egypt.

That ceasefire, as many had predicted, is already showing signs of creaking and few expect it to hold for long.

If the truce does not result in the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier abducted by Hamas-backed militants from Gaza two years ago, Mr Olmert's ratings will fall even further.

Waiting in the wings

Perhaps luckily for Mr Olmert, few Israelis seem to have the stomach or desire for new elections.

The Labour leader and Defence Minister, Ehud Barak, is also unpopular (if the polls are to be believed) and would probably not fare well if a new vote was called.

The one person who might benefit is Benyamin Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing Likud party.

Many people, though, do not have fond memories of the last time he led the country and many others, hopeful of reaching a peace-deal with the Palestinians, are sceptical that can ever be achieved under a hawkish Netanyahu government.

So, Ehud Olmert fights on at least until the Kadima internal vote in September.

In the meantime, there is the Gaza ceasefire, mediated peace talks with Syria, discussions over a prisoner swap with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the struggle to agree the framework of a settlement with Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority.

Many analysts say that such manoeuvres, if they are to succeed, require strong leadership with solid, political backing - none of which Ehud Olmert can boast.

In some ways the prime minister is giving the impression of carrying on as usual, but surely even Mr Olmert is aware that he is only delaying the inevitable - or perhaps he knows something different?