'For Germany, Trump Poses a Problem With No Clear Solution' diff viewer (0/1)

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~~Germany Prepares for Turbulence in the Trump Era~~	For Germany, Trump Poses a Problem With No Clear Solution
2017-02-06 10:35:06 UTC	2017-02-06 19:10:09 UTC (about 9 hours later)
BERLIN — As allies across Europe and Asia adjust to changes brought by President Trump, Germany is in a uniquely difficult position.	BERLIN — As allies across Europe and Asia adjust to changes brought by President Trump, Germany is in a uniquely difficult position.
Its economy and national security are particularly reliant on American support, which now seems in doubt, and on European unity, which is under attack and increasingly up to Germany to maintain.	Its economy and national security are particularly reliant on American support, which now seems in doubt, and on European unity, which is under attack and increasingly up to Germany to maintain.
Yet Germany is constrained by the growing shakiness of allies like Britain and perhaps even France, by the rise of its own far-right populist movement and by lingering cultural sensitivities about any policy that feels militaristic or hegemonic. These dynamics are not new, but there is a growing tension between the role Germany feels comfortable with, and the one it feels it needs to play on the world stage.	Yet Germany is constrained by the growing shakiness of allies like Britain and perhaps even France, by the rise of its own far-right populist movement and by lingering cultural sensitivities about any policy that feels militaristic or hegemonic. These dynamics are not new, but there is a growing tension between the role Germany feels comfortable with, and the one it feels it needs to play on the world stage.
A growing number of officials in Germany are asking whether they need a Plan B for a post-American Europe. But they are finding that any such plan would require costs and sacrifices almost as great as the consequences of inaction.	A growing number of officials in Germany are asking whether they need a Plan B for a post-American Europe. But they are finding that any such plan would require costs and sacrifices almost as great as the consequences of inaction.
“We said farewell to your ambassador the other day,” said Niels Annen, a lawmaker with the center-left Social Democrats, who are part of the governing coalition. “He tried to reassure everybody but I think nobody believed him.”	“We said farewell to your ambassador the other day,” said Niels Annen, a lawmaker with the center-left Social Democrats, who are part of the governing coalition. “He tried to reassure everybody but I think nobody believed him.”
Over breakfast in the restored Reichstag, a soaring imperial-era construction, Mr. Annen worried about “a return to geopolitics in the way that we saw in the 20th and maybe 19th centuries.”	Over breakfast in the restored Reichstag, a soaring imperial-era construction, Mr. Annen worried about “a return to geopolitics in the way that we saw in the 20th and maybe 19th centuries.”
A few tables over sat Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the former foreign minister now designated to become president, who three days later would declare that, with Mr. Trump’s election, “the old world of the 20th century is gone” and that Germans had to prepare for drastic changes.	A few tables over sat Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the former foreign minister now designated to become president, who three days later would declare that, with Mr. Trump’s election, “the old world of the 20th century is gone” and that Germans had to prepare for drastic changes.
The concern vexing Mr. Annen, and much of official Berlin, was that Mr. Trump might not only withdraw American protection but also actively aid Europe’s growing internal and external threats.	The concern vexing Mr. Annen, and much of official Berlin, was that Mr. Trump might not only withdraw American protection but also actively aid Europe’s growing internal and external threats.
“Someone like Mr. Bannon sitting in the White House who has contacts with right-wing, up to fascist, groups here in Europe,” Mr. Annen said, referring to Mr. Trump’s chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, “is really concerning.”	“Someone like Mr. Bannon sitting in the White House who has contacts with right-wing, up to fascist, groups here in Europe,” Mr. Annen said, referring to Mr. Trump’s chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, “is really concerning.”
He also said he feared that Mr. Trump could seek to improve ties with Moscow “on Russian terms,” cutting out Europe, and potentially emboldening Russia’s growing challenge to the continent’s unity.	He also said he feared that Mr. Trump could seek to improve ties with Moscow “on Russian terms,” cutting out Europe, and potentially emboldening Russia’s growing challenge to the continent’s unity.
Other lawmakers worried that Mr. Trump was already undermining European unity, for example by rewarding Britain’s exit from the European Union with promises of a speedy trade deal.	Other lawmakers worried that Mr. Trump was already undermining European unity, for example by rewarding Britain’s exit from the European Union with promises of a speedy trade deal.
“What I find destabilizing is his announcement that he will make deals with national member states, because that will divide the E.U.,” said Franziska Brantner, a lawmaker with the Green Party. She also said she was worried that Mr. Trump was weakening Europe’s collective defense by questioning the value of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.	“What I find destabilizing is his announcement that he will make deals with national member states, because that will divide the E.U.,” said Franziska Brantner, a lawmaker with the Green Party. She also said she was worried that Mr. Trump was weakening Europe’s collective defense by questioning the value of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Most nations, facing such threats, would most likely be moving to respond.	Most nations, facing such threats, would most likely be moving to respond.
Germany is unusual. It has secured its place in the world by upholding the liberal order through consensus-building and peacemaking.	Germany is unusual. It has secured its place in the world by upholding the liberal order through consensus-building and peacemaking.
“That’s a nice idea,” Ulrich Kühn, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said of that model. But Germany “is being confronted with a reality where we cannot continue that way anymore.”	“That’s a nice idea,” Ulrich Kühn, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said of that model. But Germany “is being confronted with a reality where we cannot continue that way anymore.”
Most middle powers rely at least partly on traditional forms of power; Britain has its military might, India its regional dominance, Israel its nuclear program. Germany has explicitly avoided such assets, leaving it to rely on soft power tools, particularly its economic strength, that only work in the framework of a liberal European order that now looks uncertain.	Most middle powers rely at least partly on traditional forms of power; Britain has its military might, India its regional dominance, Israel its nuclear program. Germany has explicitly avoided such assets, leaving it to rely on soft power tools, particularly its economic strength, that only work in the framework of a liberal European order that now looks uncertain.
Now, policy elites and the public in Germany are struggling with whether and how their nation should develop more traditional forms of power.	Now, policy elites and the public in Germany are struggling with whether and how their nation should develop more traditional forms of power.
Germany has, in the past decade, grown beyond many of the taboos that stem from the Nazi era and World War II. It leads on eurozone matters, sends small numbers of troops on overseas NATO missions and has organized recent sanctions against Russia. National pride remains a touchy topic but one that can at least be discussed.	Germany has, in the past decade, grown beyond many of the taboos that stem from the Nazi era and World War II. It leads on eurozone matters, sends small numbers of troops on overseas NATO missions and has organized recent sanctions against Russia. National pride remains a touchy topic but one that can at least be discussed.
Still, the idea of Germany as a military power or even European hegemon — likely requirements for taking up the burdens and responsibilities of a leading European power in the Trump era — remains difficult.	Still, the idea of Germany as a military power or even European hegemon — likely requirements for taking up the burdens and responsibilities of a leading European power in the Trump era — remains difficult.
But Germany may not have the luxury of time to reconcile its contradictory feelings about its place in the world, especially with an intransigent America and resurgent Russia, and a Europe rived by populism.	But Germany may not have the luxury of time to reconcile its contradictory feelings about its place in the world, especially with an intransigent America and resurgent Russia, and a Europe rived by populism.
“We still don’t really have a clue who we are in the world and who we want to be,” said Jana Puglierin of the German Council on Foreign Relations. That makes it difficult to face increasingly urgent questions, she said, over “what role we should play, who Germany is, how dominant do we want to be.”	“We still don’t really have a clue who we are in the world and who we want to be,” said Jana Puglierin of the German Council on Foreign Relations. That makes it difficult to face increasingly urgent questions, she said, over “what role we should play, who Germany is, how dominant do we want to be.”
As the United States openly questions the European Union’s value, its member states are plagued by populist backlashes that have made its leaders less willing to address the eurozone and refugee crises at a moment when they are most urgent.	As the United States openly questions the European Union’s value, its member states are plagued by populist backlashes that have made its leaders less willing to address the eurozone and refugee crises at a moment when they are most urgent.
Germany, as a result, is left carrying a greater share of the burden just as it is becoming heaviest.	Germany, as a result, is left carrying a greater share of the burden just as it is becoming heaviest.
“We’re running out of partners,” Mr. Annen said.	“We’re running out of partners,” Mr. Annen said.
But while the United States could tell Europe hard truths and pressure its leaders to make difficult decisions, continental politics and memory mean Germany cannot take over this role. Its regional stature allows it enough power to push some policies on smaller states, but not enough to force unity on all issues. And past exercises of power, like pushing austerity plans that benefited Germany’s own economy at the expense of its poorer neighbors, have not enhanced its regional leadership.	But while the United States could tell Europe hard truths and pressure its leaders to make difficult decisions, continental politics and memory mean Germany cannot take over this role. Its regional stature allows it enough power to push some policies on smaller states, but not enough to force unity on all issues. And past exercises of power, like pushing austerity plans that benefited Germany’s own economy at the expense of its poorer neighbors, have not enhanced its regional leadership.
“It will never be a with-us-or-against-us policy, because then these countries will be against us,” Mr. Annen said.	“It will never be a with-us-or-against-us policy, because then these countries will be against us,” Mr. Annen said.
An even starker challenge is posed by Russia, which is staging cyberattacks and aligning with populist movements across Europe. The fear is that softening American and Western European defense commitments would compel some Eastern European states to hedge against the alliance and submit to a degree of Russian influence.	An even starker challenge is posed by Russia, which is staging cyberattacks and aligning with populist movements across Europe. The fear is that softening American and Western European defense commitments would compel some Eastern European states to hedge against the alliance and submit to a degree of Russian influence.
Should Europe’s defense unity break under Russian pressure, analysts worry, its economic and political unity would follow, leaving Germany isolated at a time when it is unequipped to go it alone.	Should Europe’s defense unity break under Russian pressure, analysts worry, its economic and political unity would follow, leaving Germany isolated at a time when it is unequipped to go it alone.
Eastern European states may look to Germany, whose economy is almost triple the size of Russia’s, to replace American security guarantees. But the German military lacks many basics such as sufficient ammunition, for which it relies on American forces. Even with rapid spending increases, it would take years for the country to be able to play a major European defense role, Mr. Kühn said.	Eastern European states may look to Germany, whose economy is almost triple the size of Russia’s, to replace American security guarantees. But the German military lacks many basics such as sufficient ammunition, for which it relies on American forces. Even with rapid spending increases, it would take years for the country to be able to play a major European defense role, Mr. Kühn said.
“There is no substitute for the United States with regard to European security,” said Norbert Röttgen, a lawmaker with the Christian Democratic Union, which is also the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel.	“There is no substitute for the United States with regard to European security,” said Norbert Röttgen, a lawmaker with the Christian Democratic Union, which is also the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Should Germany seek to uphold European collective defense, the greatest hurdle may be the German people.	Should Germany seek to uphold European collective defense, the greatest hurdle may be the German people.
In 2015, a Pew poll of NATO member states found that only 38 percent of Germans said that their country should defend NATO allies bordering Russia if they were attacked.	In 2015, a Pew poll of NATO member states found that only 38 percent of Germans said that their country should defend NATO allies bordering Russia if they were attacked.
Officials say that while their first priority is to establish friendly relations with the Trump administration, they are not averse to hitting back if the United States undermines the European Union.	Officials say that while their first priority is to establish friendly relations with the Trump administration, they are not averse to hitting back if the United States undermines the European Union.
“We cannot allow even our most important ally to dismantle the single most historic achievement that we have,” Mr. Annen said. “That is something that no government could accept without giving an answer.”	“We cannot allow even our most important ally to dismantle the single most historic achievement that we have,” Mr. Annen said. “That is something that no government could accept without giving an answer.”
Behind closed doors, according to a senior German government official, officials are preparing for the day that Berlin could be forced to treat its longtime ally as a threat, necessitating radical changes in German foreign policy.	Behind closed doors, according to a senior German government official, officials are preparing for the day that Berlin could be forced to treat its longtime ally as a threat, necessitating radical changes in German foreign policy.
The official asked to remain anonymous because of another predicament Berlin faces with Mr. Trump: Its leaders must prepare Germany by enunciating the stakes, but they fear that overtly stepping away from Mr. Trump would anger him, risking the very breakup they wish to avoid.	The official asked to remain anonymous because of another predicament Berlin faces with Mr. Trump: Its leaders must prepare Germany by enunciating the stakes, but they fear that overtly stepping away from Mr. Trump would anger him, risking the very breakup they wish to avoid.
Others are beginning to think about the day after.	Others are beginning to think about the day after.
Roderich Kiesewetter, a former military officer who is now a lawmaker with the Christian Democratic Union, is among a small but growing group pushing these questions into the public debate.	Roderich Kiesewetter, a former military officer who is now a lawmaker with the Christian Democratic Union, is among a small but growing group pushing these questions into the public debate.