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New Tensions With Iran New Tensions With Iran
(about 9 hours later)
This editorial has been updated to reflect news developments.
It didn’t take long for tensions to flare between Iran and President Trump, and both sides have to share the blame.It didn’t take long for tensions to flare between Iran and President Trump, and both sides have to share the blame.
Iran was dangerously provocative in conducting a ballistic missile test this week, especially given the confusion and incompetence that has characterized Mr. Trump’s first days in office. Officials in Tehran must have known that the launch of the medium-range Shahab missile would alarm America and other countries in the unstable region and would be red meat for the impulsive new president. However, the Iranians seemed determined to test not just the missile, but also whether Mr. Trump would seize any excuse to blow up the 2015 nuclear deal.Iran was dangerously provocative in conducting a ballistic missile test this week, especially given the confusion and incompetence that has characterized Mr. Trump’s first days in office. Officials in Tehran must have known that the launch of the medium-range Shahab missile would alarm America and other countries in the unstable region and would be red meat for the impulsive new president. However, the Iranians seemed determined to test not just the missile, but also whether Mr. Trump would seize any excuse to blow up the 2015 nuclear deal.
Although Mr. Trump campaigned against the deal, under which Iran curbed its nuclear program in return for the lifting of international sanctions, he didn’t immediately jettison it after the missile launch, as many had feared. Instead, he threw down a challenge that was itself provocative and displayed an eagerness to confront Iran, a risky path that could lead to a military conflict. “As of today we are officially putting Iran on notice,” his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, told reporters Wednesday, arguing that the missile was the latest in a series of actions that had destabilized the region.Although Mr. Trump campaigned against the deal, under which Iran curbed its nuclear program in return for the lifting of international sanctions, he didn’t immediately jettison it after the missile launch, as many had feared. Instead, he threw down a challenge that was itself provocative and displayed an eagerness to confront Iran, a risky path that could lead to a military conflict. “As of today we are officially putting Iran on notice,” his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, told reporters Wednesday, arguing that the missile was the latest in a series of actions that had destabilized the region.
Mr. Flynn didn’t reveal just what he meant by “putting Iran on notice,” although other officials later said new sanctions were under consideration — Reuters reported they could be imposed as early as Friday — and military action has not been ruled out. Mr. Flynn clearly wanted to signal that the administration is intent on pursuing a more muscular approach. He gave little reason to believe there was any real long-term strategy behind the comment, which was oddly timed since a major member of the national security team, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, did not start work until Thursday. Mr. Flynn didn’t reveal just what he meant by “putting Iran on notice,” but he clearly wanted to signal that the administration is intent on setting a more muscular tone. He gave little reason to believe there was any real long-term strategy behind the comment, which was oddly timed since a major member of the national security team, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, did not start work until Thursday. On Friday, the administration imposed sanctions on 25 individuals and entities associated with the ballistic missile program, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, using authority that President Obama also exercised against Iran. More sanctions are also under consideration and military action has not been ruled out, officials said.
Moreover, there was no apparent attempt to discuss the missile issue with Iran privately and no coordination with Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany, the other major powers that are parties to the nuclear deal. Multilateral cooperation was essential to achieving the deal and is essential to ensuring strict implementation. The same goes for addressing Iran’s other unacceptable activities. Mr. Trump has a better chance of success if he doesn’t freeze out the European allies, Russia and China.Moreover, there was no apparent attempt to discuss the missile issue with Iran privately and no coordination with Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany, the other major powers that are parties to the nuclear deal. Multilateral cooperation was essential to achieving the deal and is essential to ensuring strict implementation. The same goes for addressing Iran’s other unacceptable activities. Mr. Trump has a better chance of success if he doesn’t freeze out the European allies, Russia and China.
Mr. Flynn was right, however, in highlighting Iran’s troubling behavior, including the recent attack on a Saudi Navy patrol boat by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen, as well as Iran’s expanding influence in Iraq. Israel and America’s Sunni Arab allies are also alarmed about Iran’s aggressive moves and consider the country their chief adversary.Mr. Flynn was right, however, in highlighting Iran’s troubling behavior, including the recent attack on a Saudi Navy patrol boat by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen, as well as Iran’s expanding influence in Iraq. Israel and America’s Sunni Arab allies are also alarmed about Iran’s aggressive moves and consider the country their chief adversary.
Given these tensions, Iran needs to refrain from testing missiles, even though the International Atomic Energy Agency said they are not capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Iran says it needs them to defend against neighbors with superior arsenals. Critically, this week’s launch does not violate the 2015 nuclear agreement, which does not cover missiles. And despite what Mr. Flynn has said, the test is not considered a violation of 2015 United Nations resolution that calls on Iran to refrain from testing ballistic missiles, without making it mandatory.Given these tensions, Iran needs to refrain from testing missiles, even though the International Atomic Energy Agency said they are not capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Iran says it needs them to defend against neighbors with superior arsenals. Critically, this week’s launch does not violate the 2015 nuclear agreement, which does not cover missiles. And despite what Mr. Flynn has said, the test is not considered a violation of 2015 United Nations resolution that calls on Iran to refrain from testing ballistic missiles, without making it mandatory.
For now, the administration says it intends to impose new missile-related sanctions in a way that does not affect the nuclear deal. It could use existing American sanctions to expand penalties on firms that support Iran’s missile program. It should work with the major powers to strengthen efforts, under United Nations sanctions, to interdict missile technology shipments to Iran. Another idea would be an initiative to persuade Iran to agree to missile limits if Saudi Arabia and Israel did the same.For now, the administration says it intends to impose new missile-related sanctions in a way that does not affect the nuclear deal. It could use existing American sanctions to expand penalties on firms that support Iran’s missile program. It should work with the major powers to strengthen efforts, under United Nations sanctions, to interdict missile technology shipments to Iran. Another idea would be an initiative to persuade Iran to agree to missile limits if Saudi Arabia and Israel did the same.
What is most important is to find ways to manage tensions with Iran by exerting pressure when appropriate without creating a path toward confrontation.What is most important is to find ways to manage tensions with Iran by exerting pressure when appropriate without creating a path toward confrontation.