This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/feb/03/markets-us-jobs-report-trump-dodd-frank-review-business-live
The article has changed 17 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
Version 8 | Version 9 |
---|---|
US economy created 227,000 new jobs in January, as jobless rate rises to 4.8% - live updates | |
(35 minutes later) | |
1.48pm GMT | |
13:48 | |
Another reason to be worried about US earnings: | |
"Over the year, average hourly earnings rose by 2.5% in January, compared with 2.9% year over year last month." - @WSJecon | |
1.48pm GMT | |
13:48 | |
Here’s some instant reaction, first from bond trading magnate Bill Gross: | |
"I suppose it's good for corp, profits", says Gross @BloombergRadio. But ultimately it's the consumer drives the economy. YoY wage revision | |
This is from James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute: | |
So strongish January jobs report, 227,000 jobs. Labor participation, emp-pop both up 0.2 - though an * b/c of population adjustment | |
Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal suggests there’s little pressure on the US central bank to hike rates fast. | |
Key thing about this report is modest wage growth and jump in LFPR suggest no reason for the Fed to accelerate its hike schedule. | |
Economist Shaun Richards points out that wage growth is still modest, even though the US economy is creating more jobs. | |
The theme of employment growth with wage growth underperforming just repeats and repeats in the credit crunch era doesn't it? #NFP | |
1.43pm GMT | |
13:43 | |
America’s labour force participation rate, which measures everyone working or available for work, has risen to 62.9% from 62.7%. | |
That implies that some economically inactive people started looking for work again last month (and is one reason the jobless rate rose to 4.8%). | |
Labor Force Participation Rate rises from 62.7% to 62.9% pic.twitter.com/yae7COyB1q | |
1.41pm GMT | |
13:41 | |
The number of Americans who would like to work more hours went up last month. | |
The U6 rate, which measure unemployment and underemployment, has risen to 9.4% from 9.2%. | |
U3 Unemployment Rate 4.8% vs 4.7% exp/prev.U6 UER 9.4% vs 9.2% prev.Avg Hourly Earnings +2.5% YoY vs 2.7% exp/2.9% prev. | |
1.35pm GMT | |
13:35 | |
November’s jobs report has been revised, to show that only 164,000 new jobs were created, not 204,000 as first thought. | |
December’s data has been revised up by 1,000, to 157,000. | |
1.34pm GMT | |
13:34 | |
The wages figure is a disappointment! | |
Average earnings only rose by 0.1% month-on-month in January, dashing hopes of a 0.3% gain. | |
Average hour earnings up 0.1% in January vs. 0.3% expectations. YOY wages up 2.5% #JobsReport https://t.co/DClcu4FCnl | |
1.33pm GMT | |
13:33 | |
America’s jobless rate has risen to 4.8%, from 4.7% in December. | |
1.30pm GMT | |
13:30 | |
US JOBS REPORT RELEASED | |
BREAKING: America’s economy created 227,000 new jobs in January, as the Obama administration ended and the Trump administration began. | |
That’s more than economists had expected, and suggests that the US economy began 2017 in good health. | |
More to follow! | |
1.25pm GMT | |
13:25 | |
Tension is building, with just five minutes to go.... | |
Today begins Trump's long road to fulfilling his promise of 25 million (!) new jobs. Need 208.3 thousand every month | |
This jobs report predates Trump. Reference week for the numbers is January 12th. https://t.co/4sF3ickjTM | |
The first jobs report of the Trump presidency comes out in less than 10 minutes. Reminder that he thinks the unemployment rate is “phony.” | |
1.12pm GMT | 1.12pm GMT |
13:12 | 13:12 |
US jobs report: a preamble | US jobs report: a preamble |
It’s nearly time for the US jobs report.... the first Non-Farm Payroll on Donald Trump’s watch. | It’s nearly time for the US jobs report.... the first Non-Farm Payroll on Donald Trump’s watch. |
Of course, Trump only took office on January 20th, so he can’t be credited or blamed for the state of America’s labo(u)r market. Of course, some firms will have made hiring decisions since the election on 9th November, but the impact of Trump’s policies will only be seen in NFP reports later this year and beyond. | Of course, Trump only took office on January 20th, so he can’t be credited or blamed for the state of America’s labo(u)r market. Of course, some firms will have made hiring decisions since the election on 9th November, but the impact of Trump’s policies will only be seen in NFP reports later this year and beyond. |
Today’s report is effectively the starting point against which Trump will be judged. | Today’s report is effectively the starting point against which Trump will be judged. |
Obama gets 2/3 of today's jobs report right? https://t.co/WHeYk8DWvg | Obama gets 2/3 of today's jobs report right? https://t.co/WHeYk8DWvg |
A reminder: economists are expecting today’s report to be pretty decent, with around 180,000 new jobs created last month. The unemployment rate may also remain low, at 4.7%.... | A reminder: economists are expecting today’s report to be pretty decent, with around 180,000 new jobs created last month. The unemployment rate may also remain low, at 4.7%.... |
...however, Trump has criticised these figures for not showing the true picture in the jobs market. His team favour another measure, called U5, which includes people who have given up looking for work. That rate is currently running at 5.7%. | ...however, Trump has criticised these figures for not showing the true picture in the jobs market. His team favour another measure, called U5, which includes people who have given up looking for work. That rate is currently running at 5.7%. |
Economists will also be looking at the wage growth figures. Average earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% during January, with the annual increase dipping to 2.8% from 2.9% in December. | Economists will also be looking at the wage growth figures. Average earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% during January, with the annual increase dipping to 2.8% from 2.9% in December. |
12.47pm GMT | 12.47pm GMT |
12:47 | 12:47 |
The Daily Telegraph have just published a handy explanation to the Dodd-Frank legislation. | The Daily Telegraph have just published a handy explanation to the Dodd-Frank legislation. |
Here’s a snippet: | Here’s a snippet: |
If Dodd-Frank made banks safer, why is it being reviewed? | If Dodd-Frank made banks safer, why is it being reviewed? |
Scrapping legislation that stifles businesses was a central plank of Mr Trump’s election campaign, playing to his image as a successful tycoon who made billions in the private sector. Last November, he described Dodd-Frank as “a sprawling and complex piece of legislation that has unleashed hundreds of new rules and several new bureaucratic agencies”. | Scrapping legislation that stifles businesses was a central plank of Mr Trump’s election campaign, playing to his image as a successful tycoon who made billions in the private sector. Last November, he described Dodd-Frank as “a sprawling and complex piece of legislation that has unleashed hundreds of new rules and several new bureaucratic agencies”. |
Mr Trump, who has also previously argued that Dodd-Frank “made it impossible for bankers to function”, pledged to “dismantle” the law and replace it with “new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation”. Last week, while signing an executive order aimed at reducing regulations, he described Dodd-Frank as a “disaster”. Republicans have long been opposed to the law. | Mr Trump, who has also previously argued that Dodd-Frank “made it impossible for bankers to function”, pledged to “dismantle” the law and replace it with “new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation”. Last week, while signing an executive order aimed at reducing regulations, he described Dodd-Frank as a “disaster”. Republicans have long been opposed to the law. |
More here: | More here: |
Why does Donald Trump want to repeal the Dodd-Frank rules on banks and finance? https://t.co/RGhWxZjEm0 pic.twitter.com/MQpxx2Dccw | Why does Donald Trump want to repeal the Dodd-Frank rules on banks and finance? https://t.co/RGhWxZjEm0 pic.twitter.com/MQpxx2Dccw |
12.17pm GMT | 12.17pm GMT |
12:17 | 12:17 |
It’s that time of the day when the US president wakes up, opens Twitter, and addresses the world.... | It’s that time of the day when the US president wakes up, opens Twitter, and addresses the world.... |
Meeting with biggest business leaders this morning. Good jobs are coming back to U.S., health care and tax bills are being crafted NOW! | Meeting with biggest business leaders this morning. Good jobs are coming back to U.S., health care and tax bills are being crafted NOW! |
However, that meeting won’t include Travis Kalanick, the boss of Uber, who resigned from Trump’s economic advisory council following heavy criticism -- and a campaign to delete Uber. | However, that meeting won’t include Travis Kalanick, the boss of Uber, who resigned from Trump’s economic advisory council following heavy criticism -- and a campaign to delete Uber. |
11.51am GMT | 11.51am GMT |
11:51 | 11:51 |
In other banking news, Deutsche Bank is planning to cut 17% of its equities staff and 6% of its fixed-income staff globally, according to the Wall Street Journal. | In other banking news, Deutsche Bank is planning to cut 17% of its equities staff and 6% of its fixed-income staff globally, according to the Wall Street Journal. |
It would be the latest stage in CEO John Cryan’s push to cut costs and return the company to profit (it reported a $2bn loss yesterday). | It would be the latest stage in CEO John Cryan’s push to cut costs and return the company to profit (it reported a $2bn loss yesterday). |
Deutsche Bank set to slash equities, fixed-income jobs https://t.co/z3y6xT6pMW | Deutsche Bank set to slash equities, fixed-income jobs https://t.co/z3y6xT6pMW |
11.40am GMT | 11.40am GMT |
11:40 | 11:40 |
China and Germany reject Trump criticism over currencies | China and Germany reject Trump criticism over currencies |
Earlier today, China’s government rejected claims from the Trump administration that it unfairly manipulates its currency. | Earlier today, China’s government rejected claims from the Trump administration that it unfairly manipulates its currency. |
Government spokesman Lu Kang told reporters in Beijing that China hopes to resolve concerns over global trade through talks, not through tit-for-tat devaluations. | Government spokesman Lu Kang told reporters in Beijing that China hopes to resolve concerns over global trade through talks, not through tit-for-tat devaluations. |
Lu said: | Lu said: |
China has never and won’t use a currency war to seek advantage in trade or to raise competitiveness in trade. | China has never and won’t use a currency war to seek advantage in trade or to raise competitiveness in trade. |
We have no intention of fighting a currency war. From a long-term perspective this is not beneficial to China. | We have no intention of fighting a currency war. From a long-term perspective this is not beneficial to China. |
(thanks to Reuters for the quotes). | (thanks to Reuters for the quotes). |
Earlier this week, the president’s trade adviser caused a stir by claiming that Germany was getting an unfair advantage through the “grossly undervalued” euro. | Earlier this week, the president’s trade adviser caused a stir by claiming that Germany was getting an unfair advantage through the “grossly undervalued” euro. |
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has now hit back, pointing out that Berlin doesn’t actually control the euro.... | German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has now hit back, pointing out that Berlin doesn’t actually control the euro.... |
*SCHAEUBLE: SOME IN U.S. NOT AWARE GERMAN GOVT NOT SETTING RATES | *SCHAEUBLE: SOME IN U.S. NOT AWARE GERMAN GOVT NOT SETTING RATES |
10.56am GMT | 10.56am GMT |
10:56 | 10:56 |
Mining shares are falling after China’s central bank raised short term interest rates overnight. | Mining shares are falling after China’s central bank raised short term interest rates overnight. |
That is holding back the FTSE 100, which is up 30 points thanks to the Trump-induced rally in bank shares. | That is holding back the FTSE 100, which is up 30 points thanks to the Trump-induced rally in bank shares. |
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says: | Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says: |
The mining sector has slipped back this morning after a disappointing Chinese manufacturing survey as well as slight tightening of money market rates by Chinese authorities. It’s not immediately clear what prompted this action, though there is speculation about rising concerns about a property bubble, and this slight rise could well be an attempt to warn that tighter policy is on the way. Glencore, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton, Anglo-American PLC and Rio Tinto have all slipped lower at the open. | The mining sector has slipped back this morning after a disappointing Chinese manufacturing survey as well as slight tightening of money market rates by Chinese authorities. It’s not immediately clear what prompted this action, though there is speculation about rising concerns about a property bubble, and this slight rise could well be an attempt to warn that tighter policy is on the way. Glencore, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton, Anglo-American PLC and Rio Tinto have all slipped lower at the open. |
On the upside banking shares have gained a lift on speculation that US President Trump may well sign a new executive order to roll back some of the Dodd Frank regulatory bill, helping push Barclays and RBS higher. | On the upside banking shares have gained a lift on speculation that US President Trump may well sign a new executive order to roll back some of the Dodd Frank regulatory bill, helping push Barclays and RBS higher. |
10.37am GMT | 10.37am GMT |
10:37 | 10:37 |
Bank shares boosted by Trump | Bank shares boosted by Trump |
Shares in banks and insurance groups are rallying in London, following the reports that president Trump will take steps to dismantle regulations brought in to prevent another financial crisis. | Shares in banks and insurance groups are rallying in London, following the reports that president Trump will take steps to dismantle regulations brought in to prevent another financial crisis. |
The prospect of Trump blocking president Obama’s fiduciary rules also seem to be boosting demand for financial stocks. They were due to come into force in April, compelling financial advisors to recommend the best product to clients, not simply a suitable one. | The prospect of Trump blocking president Obama’s fiduciary rules also seem to be boosting demand for financial stocks. They were due to come into force in April, compelling financial advisors to recommend the best product to clients, not simply a suitable one. |
Barclays are leading the FTSE risers, up 2.5%, followed by Prudential, and Royal Bank of Scotland. | Barclays are leading the FTSE risers, up 2.5%, followed by Prudential, and Royal Bank of Scotland. |
Chris Beauchamp of City trading firm IG says: | Chris Beauchamp of City trading firm IG says: |
UK bank stocks are higher across the board this morning, after the magic words ‘Dodd-Frank’ and ‘repeal’ flashed across screens last night; leaving aside the political implications, the news could provide a tonic for the sector. | UK bank stocks are higher across the board this morning, after the magic words ‘Dodd-Frank’ and ‘repeal’ flashed across screens last night; leaving aside the political implications, the news could provide a tonic for the sector. |
Trump cannot simply demolish the Dodd-Frank rules on his own, but his executive orders still carry weight. | Trump cannot simply demolish the Dodd-Frank rules on his own, but his executive orders still carry weight. |
The FT has a good explanation: | The FT has a good explanation: |
Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs executive who is now director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said Mr Trump would sign executive orders preparing the way to fulfil a campaign pledge to dismantle parts of Dodd-Frank. | Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs executive who is now director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said Mr Trump would sign executive orders preparing the way to fulfil a campaign pledge to dismantle parts of Dodd-Frank. |
However, the president’s ability to pull apart the sweeping reforms on his own is limited. Only Congress can make major revisions to the act it passed in 2010, but Mr Trump can use the orders to signal his priorities and instruct regulators enforcing the law. | However, the president’s ability to pull apart the sweeping reforms on his own is limited. Only Congress can make major revisions to the act it passed in 2010, but Mr Trump can use the orders to signal his priorities and instruct regulators enforcing the law. |
“This is a table setter for a bunch of stuff that is coming,” said Mr Cohn, who stepped down as a top executive at Goldman Sachs to take the White House job. | “This is a table setter for a bunch of stuff that is coming,” said Mr Cohn, who stepped down as a top executive at Goldman Sachs to take the White House job. |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.41am GMT | at 10.41am GMT |
9.57am GMT | 9.57am GMT |
09:57 | 09:57 |
Economists are concerned that Britain’s service sector slowed last month. Here’s some early reaction: | Economists are concerned that Britain’s service sector slowed last month. Here’s some early reaction: |
Dean Turner, UK Economist, UBS Wealth Management: | Dean Turner, UK Economist, UBS Wealth Management: |
“The most notable aspect of the Services PMI was the ongoing strength of the input prices index, which rose again and is now above 60 level for the fourth consecutive month. Higher input prices will, in time, shift into selling prices otherwise firms will see their profits shrink. In line with the Manufacturing and Construction PMI, this points to inflation continuing its recent surge in the months ahead. | “The most notable aspect of the Services PMI was the ongoing strength of the input prices index, which rose again and is now above 60 level for the fourth consecutive month. Higher input prices will, in time, shift into selling prices otherwise firms will see their profits shrink. In line with the Manufacturing and Construction PMI, this points to inflation continuing its recent surge in the months ahead. |
“Headline activity, although falling back slightly, suggests the economy is continuing to expand at a healthy pace, but one has to question its sustainability. Can the UK economy keep pace as inflation erodes the spending power of the consumer? We don’t share the Bank of England’s optimism that households will continue to whittle away their savings to support spending. Our conviction strengthened today with the softer outlook for employment highlighted in this survey.” | “Headline activity, although falling back slightly, suggests the economy is continuing to expand at a healthy pace, but one has to question its sustainability. Can the UK economy keep pace as inflation erodes the spending power of the consumer? We don’t share the Bank of England’s optimism that households will continue to whittle away their savings to support spending. Our conviction strengthened today with the softer outlook for employment highlighted in this survey.” |
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight: | Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight: |
Services have been the key UK growth driver along with consumer spending and January survey evidence for both has been softer. While these are surveys rather than hard data and not too much should be read into one month’s figures, it nevertheless fuels our suspicion that the UK economy will find life increasing difficult during 2017 and that growth will gradually lose buoyancy like a slow puncture. | Services have been the key UK growth driver along with consumer spending and January survey evidence for both has been softer. While these are surveys rather than hard data and not too much should be read into one month’s figures, it nevertheless fuels our suspicion that the UK economy will find life increasing difficult during 2017 and that growth will gradually lose buoyancy like a slow puncture. |
Chris Sood-Nicholls, managing director and head of global services at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. | Chris Sood-Nicholls, managing director and head of global services at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. |
“There are some helpful economic ingredients that are keeping the PMI in positive territory. Healthy levels of employment and low interest rates mean consumers continue to spend. Business confidence has also been buoyed by a stronger than expected economic performance in 2016, and is likely to be further boosted by yesterday’s improved growth forecast from the Bank of England. | “There are some helpful economic ingredients that are keeping the PMI in positive territory. Healthy levels of employment and low interest rates mean consumers continue to spend. Business confidence has also been buoyed by a stronger than expected economic performance in 2016, and is likely to be further boosted by yesterday’s improved growth forecast from the Bank of England. |
“However, some uncertainty remains and we’re seeing a cautious approach towards making major investment decisions across the services sector.” | “However, some uncertainty remains and we’re seeing a cautious approach towards making major investment decisions across the services sector.” |