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| Brexit talks will descend into fist-fighting, warns Sir Ivan Rogers | Brexit talks will descend into fist-fighting, warns Sir Ivan Rogers |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| The UK’s former ambassador to the EU has told MPs the Brexit talks will inevitably descend into “name-calling” and “fist-fighting” before any agreement can be found, adding there will be serious consequences for the UK economy if the negotiations are mishandled. | The UK’s former ambassador to the EU has told MPs the Brexit talks will inevitably descend into “name-calling” and “fist-fighting” before any agreement can be found, adding there will be serious consequences for the UK economy if the negotiations are mishandled. |
| Sir Ivan Rogers, who resigned from the post this month, also challenged the centrepiece of Theresa May’s withdrawal strategy by saying the EU had no appetite to give the UK an interim free trade deal. | |
| Insisting he was not seeking to be “spine-chilling”, Rogers urged the government to make “a stone-cold sober analysis” of the consequences of abruptly falling out of the EU without a deal, which would mean falling back on the standard terms set by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). | Insisting he was not seeking to be “spine-chilling”, Rogers urged the government to make “a stone-cold sober analysis” of the consequences of abruptly falling out of the EU without a deal, which would mean falling back on the standard terms set by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). |
| Rogers quit in January after telling Theresa May that Brussels diplomats thought it might take 10 years to reach a deal. On Wednesday he said he had resigned because he felt the head of the UK negotiating team in Brussels needed to see through the “humongous negotiations” right to the end, and not because he was fundamentally opposed to the government’s free trade objectives. | Rogers quit in January after telling Theresa May that Brussels diplomats thought it might take 10 years to reach a deal. On Wednesday he said he had resigned because he felt the head of the UK negotiating team in Brussels needed to see through the “humongous negotiations” right to the end, and not because he was fundamentally opposed to the government’s free trade objectives. |
| Giving evidence to the Commons European scrutiny select committee, Rogers said that without agreement on a future free trade deal, UK businesses, including financial services, had no guarantee of subsequent access to the EU single market. | Giving evidence to the Commons European scrutiny select committee, Rogers said that without agreement on a future free trade deal, UK businesses, including financial services, had no guarantee of subsequent access to the EU single market. |
| His lengthy evidence session lifted the lid on the details of Whitehall’s Brexit negotiation thinking, providing the most informed public insight into the many pitfalls and trade-offs ahead in the next two years. | His lengthy evidence session lifted the lid on the details of Whitehall’s Brexit negotiation thinking, providing the most informed public insight into the many pitfalls and trade-offs ahead in the next two years. |
| He said David Cameron was right to conclude last February that he would gain no further concessions on free movement of people across Europe, so triggering the referendum on the terms offered. | He said David Cameron was right to conclude last February that he would gain no further concessions on free movement of people across Europe, so triggering the referendum on the terms offered. |
| Rogers revealed there were serious doubts about the option of the UK simply falling out of the EU without either a clear transitional arrangement or a new free trade agreement in place, a proposal pushed by many leading Eurosceptics as quick and painless. | Rogers revealed there were serious doubts about the option of the UK simply falling out of the EU without either a clear transitional arrangement or a new free trade agreement in place, a proposal pushed by many leading Eurosceptics as quick and painless. |
| He said he understood the public impatience to leave the EU quickly, but the UK had to look at “the real-world consequences” of leaving without a deal. “It will involve disentangling yourself from 43 years when EU law has got into every nook and cranny of UK social and economic life. | He said he understood the public impatience to leave the EU quickly, but the UK had to look at “the real-world consequences” of leaving without a deal. “It will involve disentangling yourself from 43 years when EU law has got into every nook and cranny of UK social and economic life. |
| “You have to work through every area: what does the default to the WTO option entail and where does it take you? It’s not just a matter of changing our own legislation. Access to the single market automatically lapses.” | “You have to work through every area: what does the default to the WTO option entail and where does it take you? It’s not just a matter of changing our own legislation. Access to the single market automatically lapses.” |
| He said he did not believe, for instance, that the EU would allow financial passporting for the City of London to operate in the EU, and said the less ambitious goal of agreeing equivalence – a means of ensuring privileged access to the single market for services – was problematic. | He said he did not believe, for instance, that the EU would allow financial passporting for the City of London to operate in the EU, and said the less ambitious goal of agreeing equivalence – a means of ensuring privileged access to the single market for services – was problematic. |
| He said equivalence was “quite capricious, political and incomplete. It can be withdrawn at relatively short notice by the 27”. That represented “a huge business problem” for financial institutions. | He said equivalence was “quite capricious, political and incomplete. It can be withdrawn at relatively short notice by the 27”. That represented “a huge business problem” for financial institutions. |
| Warning that the EU thought it was holding the best cards, Rogers said: “The view of many will be that the implications for the UK of walking away without any deal on the economic side and without any preferential arrangement and walking into a World Trade Organisation–only world are, from their perspective – which may be a misreading of us – so unpalatable that we won’t do it.” | Warning that the EU thought it was holding the best cards, Rogers said: “The view of many will be that the implications for the UK of walking away without any deal on the economic side and without any preferential arrangement and walking into a World Trade Organisation–only world are, from their perspective – which may be a misreading of us – so unpalatable that we won’t do it.” |
| He said the UK needed to seek “a mutual recognition agreement balanced between the two sides providing predictability certainty and dual control over the arrangements. We would be seeking in any deal something unprecedented for the EU.” | He said the UK needed to seek “a mutual recognition agreement balanced between the two sides providing predictability certainty and dual control over the arrangements. We would be seeking in any deal something unprecedented for the EU.” |
| Rogers said part of the task involved persuading the 27 “not to cut their own noses off. We are going to have persuade them that it is in their interest to do an unprecedented deal with us in terms of marked access.” | Rogers said part of the task involved persuading the 27 “not to cut their own noses off. We are going to have persuade them that it is in their interest to do an unprecedented deal with us in terms of marked access.” |
| He said he did not believe such a deal could be negoitated within two years, and thought the EU would not give the UK a bespoke interim deal. He suggested instead that the UK should look at the option of the European Economic Area (EEA) as an “antechamber” from which the final terms of Brexit, including a free trade deal, could be negotiated. He said the EEA was a readymade departure lounge. | He said he did not believe such a deal could be negoitated within two years, and thought the EU would not give the UK a bespoke interim deal. He suggested instead that the UK should look at the option of the European Economic Area (EEA) as an “antechamber” from which the final terms of Brexit, including a free trade deal, could be negotiated. He said the EEA was a readymade departure lounge. |
| He said the EU would seek between €40bn to €60bn in unpaid liabilities as part of a Brexit cheque, adding: “The UK by leaving the EU has blown a massive hole in the EU budget.” | He said the EU would seek between €40bn to €60bn in unpaid liabilities as part of a Brexit cheque, adding: “The UK by leaving the EU has blown a massive hole in the EU budget.” |
| Although each of the 27 states would have its own interests and priorities in negotiations, “one thing they can all agree on is that we are the rogues who have ceased to pay our dues”, he said. | Although each of the 27 states would have its own interests and priorities in negotiations, “one thing they can all agree on is that we are the rogues who have ceased to pay our dues”, he said. |
| Rogers said Whitehall was already overwhelmed by the scale of Brexit. Saying he did not wish to wash dirty linen in public, he warned: “Whitehall has a hell of a lot to do on Brexit and at speed. People are being run off their feet. Speaking as the ex-permanent representative at the EU, I saw a diminution of effort”. | Rogers said Whitehall was already overwhelmed by the scale of Brexit. Saying he did not wish to wash dirty linen in public, he warned: “Whitehall has a hell of a lot to do on Brexit and at speed. People are being run off their feet. Speaking as the ex-permanent representative at the EU, I saw a diminution of effort”. |
| UK officials in Brussels were trying to deal with day-to-day dossiers, he said, but not receiving instructions from Whitehall. Such officials told him: “I am not clear what I am saying or what our position us.” | UK officials in Brussels were trying to deal with day-to-day dossiers, he said, but not receiving instructions from Whitehall. Such officials told him: “I am not clear what I am saying or what our position us.” |
| Rogers said: “That is not good enough. We have to walk and chew gum at the same time. We have to deal with the day-to-day dossiers.” | Rogers said: “That is not good enough. We have to walk and chew gum at the same time. We have to deal with the day-to-day dossiers.” |