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| Strife Over Immigrants: Can California Predict the Nation’s Future? | Strife Over Immigrants: Can California Predict the Nation’s Future? |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| The political ads warned that illegal immigrants were dashing, by the millions, over the Mexican border, racing to claim taxpayer-funded public services in California. | The political ads warned that illegal immigrants were dashing, by the millions, over the Mexican border, racing to claim taxpayer-funded public services in California. |
| “They keep coming,” the announcer intoned over grainy aerial footage and a thrumming bassline. When viewed on YouTube today, these ads hardly seem the stuff of multicultural California as we know it. | “They keep coming,” the announcer intoned over grainy aerial footage and a thrumming bassline. When viewed on YouTube today, these ads hardly seem the stuff of multicultural California as we know it. |
| In 1994, though, that message helped lift California’s governor, the Republican Pete Wilson, to re-election. That same year, voters adopted a referendum, Proposition 187, denying state services to undocumented immigrants, including public education and health care. | In 1994, though, that message helped lift California’s governor, the Republican Pete Wilson, to re-election. That same year, voters adopted a referendum, Proposition 187, denying state services to undocumented immigrants, including public education and health care. |
| California is often held up as a harbinger of the demographics — and, Democrats hope, the politics — of the nation to come. Mr. Wilson’s bet against immigration is thought to have hurt Republicans in the long run in the state. But in the dawn of the Trump era, the state is also a cautionary tale of what happens during the tumultuous years when that change is occurring rapidly. | California is often held up as a harbinger of the demographics — and, Democrats hope, the politics — of the nation to come. Mr. Wilson’s bet against immigration is thought to have hurt Republicans in the long run in the state. But in the dawn of the Trump era, the state is also a cautionary tale of what happens during the tumultuous years when that change is occurring rapidly. |
| Donald J. Trump has taken office in a nation that is not only growing more diverse, but also growing more diverse everywhere, because of both foreign immigration and shifting internal migration patterns that are touching the last bastions of nearly all-white America. | Donald J. Trump has taken office in a nation that is not only growing more diverse, but also growing more diverse everywhere, because of both foreign immigration and shifting internal migration patterns that are touching the last bastions of nearly all-white America. |
| After an election in which Mr. Trump appealed to unease about the nation’s changing identity — and a month when he alarmed civil rights leaders and immigration advocates — his presidency poses a very different question from his predecessor’s. | After an election in which Mr. Trump appealed to unease about the nation’s changing identity — and a month when he alarmed civil rights leaders and immigration advocates — his presidency poses a very different question from his predecessor’s. |
| Not: Are we post-racial? But: How will we handle the racial change that is only going to accelerate? | Not: Are we post-racial? But: How will we handle the racial change that is only going to accelerate? |
| Sociological studies suggest that increasing contact between groups can yield familiarity and tolerance. But it can also unnerve, especially in communities where that rapid change is most visible — and when politicians stand to gain by exploiting it. California lashed out at diversity before embracing it. | Sociological studies suggest that increasing contact between groups can yield familiarity and tolerance. But it can also unnerve, especially in communities where that rapid change is most visible — and when politicians stand to gain by exploiting it. California lashed out at diversity before embracing it. |
| “There’s a very rich history of xenophobia, of racism, of trying to wipe each other out,” said Connie Rice, a longtime civil rights lawyer in California. “It’s not like we were all of a sudden born the Golden State.” State leaders pushed for the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II. “This is where the Chinese weren’t even allowed to own property,” she noted. | “There’s a very rich history of xenophobia, of racism, of trying to wipe each other out,” said Connie Rice, a longtime civil rights lawyer in California. “It’s not like we were all of a sudden born the Golden State.” State leaders pushed for the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II. “This is where the Chinese weren’t even allowed to own property,” she noted. |
| Rush Limbaugh started building his following as a right-wing radio talk show host in Sacramento in the 1980s. The ’90s in California brought the Rodney King riots, a strict three-strikes law, the contentious Proposition 187 fight and ballot measures in which voters rejected affirmative action and bilingual education. “We went through a pretty chaotic last 20 years,” said Manuel Pastor, a University of Southern California sociologist. | Rush Limbaugh started building his following as a right-wing radio talk show host in Sacramento in the 1980s. The ’90s in California brought the Rodney King riots, a strict three-strikes law, the contentious Proposition 187 fight and ballot measures in which voters rejected affirmative action and bilingual education. “We went through a pretty chaotic last 20 years,” said Manuel Pastor, a University of Southern California sociologist. |
| But this is the same state that today vows to defend immigrants from deportation, a place where voters have supported a higher minimum wage and prison reforms that benefit minority residents. “You would not have predicted that from amid that chaos,” he said. | But this is the same state that today vows to defend immigrants from deportation, a place where voters have supported a higher minimum wage and prison reforms that benefit minority residents. “You would not have predicted that from amid that chaos,” he said. |
| The demographic change California underwent between 1980 and 2000, Mr. Pastor said, mirrors the change (and projected change) in the United States since 2000 and up to 2050, when whites are expected to be less than half of the nation’s population. | The demographic change California underwent between 1980 and 2000, Mr. Pastor said, mirrors the change (and projected change) in the United States since 2000 and up to 2050, when whites are expected to be less than half of the nation’s population. |
| “The United States just went through its Prop. 187 moment,” Mr. Pastor said of this presidential election. The question is whether the rest of the country can adjust faster to demographic change — or with less conflict — than California did. “Why go through all of our pain? That was no fun, and it dashed a lot of people’s lives. We underinvested in education. We over-imprisoned, so we got a lot of people locked out of the labor market. We broke apart a lot of families because of anti-immigrant sentiments. We did a lot of stupid things to ourselves.” | “The United States just went through its Prop. 187 moment,” Mr. Pastor said of this presidential election. The question is whether the rest of the country can adjust faster to demographic change — or with less conflict — than California did. “Why go through all of our pain? That was no fun, and it dashed a lot of people’s lives. We underinvested in education. We over-imprisoned, so we got a lot of people locked out of the labor market. We broke apart a lot of families because of anti-immigrant sentiments. We did a lot of stupid things to ourselves.” |
| California’s example suggests that the very demographic trend Democrats believe will benefit them in the long run could aid Republicans in the near term. At least, that remains true so long as Republican candidates like Mr. Trump or Mr. Wilson position themselves in opposition to immigration or policies perceived as aiding minorities. | California’s example suggests that the very demographic trend Democrats believe will benefit them in the long run could aid Republicans in the near term. At least, that remains true so long as Republican candidates like Mr. Trump or Mr. Wilson position themselves in opposition to immigration or policies perceived as aiding minorities. |
| Mr. Trump fared particularly well in the parts of the country where demographic change is accelerating. Scholars say that it’s the change in diversity that helps explain how a community responds. So an influx of Hispanics into Chicago may not be noticeable, but a few new immigrant families into small-town Pennsylvania is. | Mr. Trump fared particularly well in the parts of the country where demographic change is accelerating. Scholars say that it’s the change in diversity that helps explain how a community responds. So an influx of Hispanics into Chicago may not be noticeable, but a few new immigrant families into small-town Pennsylvania is. |
| Map the most diverse corners of the country, and historical gateways like Chicago pop out. | Map the most diverse corners of the country, and historical gateways like Chicago pop out. |
| But look instead where the recent change has been sharpest — typically starting with a modest number of nonwhite residents — and a different set of places emerges. | But look instead where the recent change has been sharpest — typically starting with a modest number of nonwhite residents — and a different set of places emerges. |
| While the top map includes Democratic-leaning counties around big cities, the Southern Black Belt and the Mexican border, the second captures many of the rural Midwestern counties that helped deliver Mr. Trump the election. A Wall Street Journal analysis found during the primaries that the most rapidly diversifying counties in a cluster of Midwestern states were more likely to vote for Mr. Trump. | While the top map includes Democratic-leaning counties around big cities, the Southern Black Belt and the Mexican border, the second captures many of the rural Midwestern counties that helped deliver Mr. Trump the election. A Wall Street Journal analysis found during the primaries that the most rapidly diversifying counties in a cluster of Midwestern states were more likely to vote for Mr. Trump. |
| In the general election, voters were more likely to shift to Mr. Trump in the counties with the strongest growth in the Hispanic and nonwhite populations since 2000, according to research from a coming book by Ryan Enos, a Harvard political scientist. It appears in survey data, Mr. Enos argues, that this shift in 2016 was driven by whites who had previously voted Democratic — and who don’t appear to have responded in the same way to rising diversity before Mr. Trump’s campaign. | In the general election, voters were more likely to shift to Mr. Trump in the counties with the strongest growth in the Hispanic and nonwhite populations since 2000, according to research from a coming book by Ryan Enos, a Harvard political scientist. It appears in survey data, Mr. Enos argues, that this shift in 2016 was driven by whites who had previously voted Democratic — and who don’t appear to have responded in the same way to rising diversity before Mr. Trump’s campaign. |
| The long-term Democratic bet on demographic destiny assumes that minority voters who support the party today will continue to in the future. But it also assumes that today’s white Democrats will stay with the party as the context around them shifts. Evidence like Mr. Enos’s suggests there’s no guarantee, particularly regarding the timeline of tolerance. White voters in California may have eventually been persuaded that their Hispanic neighbors were no threat to the local economy or their children’s classrooms, but white voters in Midwestern small towns may have been unnerved by the change around them enough for a meaningful shift in votes in this past election. | The long-term Democratic bet on demographic destiny assumes that minority voters who support the party today will continue to in the future. But it also assumes that today’s white Democrats will stay with the party as the context around them shifts. Evidence like Mr. Enos’s suggests there’s no guarantee, particularly regarding the timeline of tolerance. White voters in California may have eventually been persuaded that their Hispanic neighbors were no threat to the local economy or their children’s classrooms, but white voters in Midwestern small towns may have been unnerved by the change around them enough for a meaningful shift in votes in this past election. |
| Diversity, long considered a characteristic of big cities, has been spreading into rural America. The sociologists Gregory Sharp and Barrett Lee looked at nearly 10,000 smaller towns and rural communities across the country; more than nine in 10 experienced a rise in diversity between 1990 and 2010. That’s happening because immigrants have followed new jobs in agriculture and oil and natural gas production, Mr. Lee said, and because they’ve been looking for more opportunity and cheaper housing. | Diversity, long considered a characteristic of big cities, has been spreading into rural America. The sociologists Gregory Sharp and Barrett Lee looked at nearly 10,000 smaller towns and rural communities across the country; more than nine in 10 experienced a rise in diversity between 1990 and 2010. That’s happening because immigrants have followed new jobs in agriculture and oil and natural gas production, Mr. Lee said, and because they’ve been looking for more opportunity and cheaper housing. |
| But it’s also happening because nonimmigrant minorities have been dispersing from central cities. And they’re all moving to places with less experience incorporating difference. | But it’s also happening because nonimmigrant minorities have been dispersing from central cities. And they’re all moving to places with less experience incorporating difference. |
| “Look at New York: For generations, one of its functions in some ways has been to absorb newcomers,” Mr. Lee said. “Contrast that with smaller towns in, say, the Midwest. While many of those at some point long ago had ethnic diversity — there were Germans and English and maybe some Dutch mixed in — they don’t really have that kind of institutional infrastructure.” | “Look at New York: For generations, one of its functions in some ways has been to absorb newcomers,” Mr. Lee said. “Contrast that with smaller towns in, say, the Midwest. While many of those at some point long ago had ethnic diversity — there were Germans and English and maybe some Dutch mixed in — they don’t really have that kind of institutional infrastructure.” |
| The smaller towns haven’t held many classes in which English is taught as a second language, or elections with significant nonwhite voting blocs. | The smaller towns haven’t held many classes in which English is taught as a second language, or elections with significant nonwhite voting blocs. |
| “When I talk to people about their concerns about immigration, they often talk about language,” said Daniel Hopkins, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.“They talk about being uncomfortable having to ‘press 1 for English,’ or seeing Spanish-language signs. They talk about the feeling of dispossession that comes from having lived for a long time in a community and seeing it change.” | |
| That sense of lost identity and ownership echoes how white communities often reacted to desegregation, Mr. Hopkins said. It is not, however, abrupt demographic change alone that unnerves, his research has found, but that kind of change amplified by politics. | That sense of lost identity and ownership echoes how white communities often reacted to desegregation, Mr. Hopkins said. It is not, however, abrupt demographic change alone that unnerves, his research has found, but that kind of change amplified by politics. |
| “In this brew that generates anti-immigrant sentiment, there needs to be a politicizing factor,” Mr. Hopkins said. “There needs to be a politician, a set of politicians, or a party who call attention to immigration, who make it an issue.” | “In this brew that generates anti-immigrant sentiment, there needs to be a politicizing factor,” Mr. Hopkins said. “There needs to be a politician, a set of politicians, or a party who call attention to immigration, who make it an issue.” |
| There needs to be, well, a Mr. Trump. | There needs to be, well, a Mr. Trump. |
| There is no neat tipping point, no level of diversity beyond which the backlash inevitably gives way to greater tolerance. The volume of political bluster matters. So does the level of segregation, because diversity doesn’t necessarily mean communities are integrating. So does the kind of contact that occurs when different groups bump up against one another. | There is no neat tipping point, no level of diversity beyond which the backlash inevitably gives way to greater tolerance. The volume of political bluster matters. So does the level of segregation, because diversity doesn’t necessarily mean communities are integrating. So does the kind of contact that occurs when different groups bump up against one another. |
| Research from the 1950s found that integrated military units reduced prejudice and stereotyping. And studies since then have shown that soldiers have more interracial friendships than typical civilians (as veterans, they’re also more likely to buy homes in more integrated areas). But soldiers engage in a rare kind of contact: They live together, eat together and work together on common goals. | Research from the 1950s found that integrated military units reduced prejudice and stereotyping. And studies since then have shown that soldiers have more interracial friendships than typical civilians (as veterans, they’re also more likely to buy homes in more integrated areas). But soldiers engage in a rare kind of contact: They live together, eat together and work together on common goals. |
| That’s a different kind of contact than occurs when we pass strangers in the supermarket aisle, or encounter Spanish-language signs. And even in the most demographically diverse cities, there is often little integration of schools, neighborhoods and workplaces. | That’s a different kind of contact than occurs when we pass strangers in the supermarket aisle, or encounter Spanish-language signs. And even in the most demographically diverse cities, there is often little integration of schools, neighborhoods and workplaces. |
| In Mr. Enos’s earlier work, he found that white voters in the most segregated counties nationally were five to six percentage points less likely to vote for Barack Obama in 2008 than white voters in the least segregated places, with a similar effect within states. That suggests that the nature of contact matters not just for disarming prejudice but for shaping politics. And often, when new groups come into a community, they immediately segregate. | In Mr. Enos’s earlier work, he found that white voters in the most segregated counties nationally were five to six percentage points less likely to vote for Barack Obama in 2008 than white voters in the least segregated places, with a similar effect within states. That suggests that the nature of contact matters not just for disarming prejudice but for shaping politics. And often, when new groups come into a community, they immediately segregate. |
| “That happens very quickly, and you have this period where you have the worst possible circumstances for intergroup relations,” Mr. Enos said. A new, growing group raises threat levels for longtime residents. And with segregation and without enough time, the two have little chance for positive interaction. “Who knows how long that time lasts,” Mr. Enos said, “but at some point that worst possible circumstance eases.” | “That happens very quickly, and you have this period where you have the worst possible circumstances for intergroup relations,” Mr. Enos said. A new, growing group raises threat levels for longtime residents. And with segregation and without enough time, the two have little chance for positive interaction. “Who knows how long that time lasts,” Mr. Enos said, “but at some point that worst possible circumstance eases.” |
| California moves on as Arizona, with its later waves of demographic change, takes up the vanguard of anti-immigration politics. Communities develop the institutions they lacked. The political advantages of exploiting change recede. | California moves on as Arizona, with its later waves of demographic change, takes up the vanguard of anti-immigration politics. Communities develop the institutions they lacked. The political advantages of exploiting change recede. |
| In another study, Mr. Enos found that the mere presence of a few Spanish speakers on a train platform was enough to raise anti-immigrant sentiment among commuters in the white, liberal Boston suburbs. But as the same Spanish speakers kept appearing over two weeks, those attitudes softened. The commuters began to smile at one another. | In another study, Mr. Enos found that the mere presence of a few Spanish speakers on a train platform was enough to raise anti-immigrant sentiment among commuters in the white, liberal Boston suburbs. But as the same Spanish speakers kept appearing over two weeks, those attitudes softened. The commuters began to smile at one another. |
| “In the short run, diversity is difficult,” said Robert Putnam, a Harvard sociologist. He published a widely discussed paper in 2007 arguing that diversity causes groups to withdraw from one another, both from people who don’t look like us and — surprisingly — from those who do (people generally “pull in like a turtle,” he wrote). His data suggesting that diversity reduces trust and social capital was cited by opponents of affirmative action. But in his full argument, Mr. Putnam too insisted that the trouble eventually ebbs. | “In the short run, diversity is difficult,” said Robert Putnam, a Harvard sociologist. He published a widely discussed paper in 2007 arguing that diversity causes groups to withdraw from one another, both from people who don’t look like us and — surprisingly — from those who do (people generally “pull in like a turtle,” he wrote). His data suggesting that diversity reduces trust and social capital was cited by opponents of affirmative action. But in his full argument, Mr. Putnam too insisted that the trouble eventually ebbs. |
| “In the long run, America is pretty good at coming to terms with that and moving past it,” he said. “But the long term is measured in terms of decades.” | “In the long run, America is pretty good at coming to terms with that and moving past it,” he said. “But the long term is measured in terms of decades.” |
| It may be measured in the difference between where California is today and where the country is about to go. | It may be measured in the difference between where California is today and where the country is about to go. |