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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
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| Eurozone GDP: French economic growth accelerates to 0.4% – business live | Eurozone GDP: French economic growth accelerates to 0.4% – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.47am GMT | |
| 09:47 | |
| The latest unemployment news from Italy is rather disappointing. | |
| The Italian jobless rate came in at 12% in December, higher than expected, while November’s reading has been revised up from 11.9% to 12%. | |
| These are the highest readings since July 2015. | |
| 9.23am GMT | |
| 09:23 | |
| Dollar on track for worst January since 2008 | |
| The US dollar is poised to suffer its worst start to any year since 2008. | |
| The greenback has fallen by 1.9% against a basket of currencies this month, partly thanks to yesterday’s selloff as Donald Trump’s flurry of executive orders alarmed traders. | |
| The pound, for example, has gained over 1.5 cents against the US dollar this month, from $1.233 to $1.25. | |
| Kit Juckes, currency expert at Societe Generale, says it’s very hard to know how the markets will react to Trump. | |
| President Trump’s travel ban - and his associated decision to fire the acting Attorney General - dominates sentiment and remains good for Treasuries, the yen (and gold), but bad for bonds and the dollar. | |
| How long will market sentiment to be affected? How far can the dollar and yields fall on this? I’m not sure serious analysis is possible, and I don’t trust my gut instincts on something as far from the usual state of affairs, but my bias is still that we’ll get back to the Trump economic program, and the implications for Fed policy, before too long. | |
| More prosaically, markets will focus on the US jobs data due Friday. | |
| 8.59am GMT | 8.59am GMT |
| 08:59 | 08:59 |
| German unemployment rate falls to 5.9% | German unemployment rate falls to 5.9% |
| Newsflash: Germany’s jobs market remains as strong as ever. | Newsflash: Germany’s jobs market remains as strong as ever. |
| The unemployment total in Europe’s largest economy has fallen again this month, by 26,000 people, to 2.605m. | The unemployment total in Europe’s largest economy has fallen again this month, by 26,000 people, to 2.605m. |
| That takes Germany’s jobless rate down to 5.9%. | That takes Germany’s jobless rate down to 5.9%. |
| *GERMAN JAN. UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS ADJUSTED 26,000; EST. 5,000 DROP | *GERMAN JAN. UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS ADJUSTED 26,000; EST. 5,000 DROP |
| *GERMAN JAN. ADJUSTED JOBLESS RATE AT 5.9%; EST. 6.0% | *GERMAN JAN. ADJUSTED JOBLESS RATE AT 5.9%; EST. 6.0% |
| 8.42am GMT | 8.42am GMT |
| 08:42 | 08:42 |
| UK online supermarket group Ocado is the best performing stock across Europe, jumping by 6.5%. | UK online supermarket group Ocado is the best performing stock across Europe, jumping by 6.5%. |
| It posted a 21% jump in pre-tax profits this morning, to £14.5m, and told shareholders it was busier than ever, in its long-running attempt to sign an overseas deal. | It posted a 21% jump in pre-tax profits this morning, to £14.5m, and told shareholders it was busier than ever, in its long-running attempt to sign an overseas deal. |
| The only problem is that we’ve been waiting YEARS for Ocado to team up with an international partner. The company insists there are plenty of suiters in the wings, but there’s still no actual agreement. | The only problem is that we’ve been waiting YEARS for Ocado to team up with an international partner. The company insists there are plenty of suiters in the wings, but there’s still no actual agreement. |
| Retail analyst Nick Bubb predicts: | Retail analyst Nick Bubb predicts: |
| Management will have to put up with more questions from the City today about the failure to deliver an Overseas deal in the analysts meeting at 9.30am… | Management will have to put up with more questions from the City today about the failure to deliver an Overseas deal in the analysts meeting at 9.30am… |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.43am GMT | at 8.43am GMT |
| 8.35am GMT | 8.35am GMT |
| 08:35 | 08:35 |
| European stock markets have opened nervously, following those losses in Asia overnight. | European stock markets have opened nervously, following those losses in Asia overnight. |
| Britain’s FTSE 100 has inched up by 0.2%, while the French CAC and German DAX are both flat. | Britain’s FTSE 100 has inched up by 0.2%, while the French CAC and German DAX are both flat. |
| Kathleen Brooks of City Index says investors are juggling political and economic concerns right now. | Kathleen Brooks of City Index says investors are juggling political and economic concerns right now. |
| It’s been an interesting start to the week, with protests against President Trump’s immigration ban dominating market news and reaction. Trump’s use of executive power has not stopped with immigration; on Monday he signed a new order that will cap business regulation. | It’s been an interesting start to the week, with protests against President Trump’s immigration ban dominating market news and reaction. Trump’s use of executive power has not stopped with immigration; on Monday he signed a new order that will cap business regulation. |
| While politics took centre stage at the start of the week, earnings from Apple and Exxon on later today, along with a flurry of central bank meetings this week will be critical for determining what matters more to markets right now: politics or economics. | While politics took centre stage at the start of the week, earnings from Apple and Exxon on later today, along with a flurry of central bank meetings this week will be critical for determining what matters more to markets right now: politics or economics. |
| 8.19am GMT | 8.19am GMT |
| 08:19 | 08:19 |
| Back to GDP....and Austria has posted another quarter of solid growth. | Back to GDP....and Austria has posted another quarter of solid growth. |
| Austrian GDP expanded by 0.5% in the last three months of 2016, matching the (upwardly revised) growth in July-September. | Austrian GDP expanded by 0.5% in the last three months of 2016, matching the (upwardly revised) growth in July-September. |
| Austria’s statistics body said that consumer spending and investment were the main factors behind the growth, as in France. | Austria’s statistics body said that consumer spending and investment were the main factors behind the growth, as in France. |
| #Austria: Economy ends 2016 on a solid footing. 4Q16 GDP growth at 0.5% QoQ | #Austria: Economy ends 2016 on a solid footing. 4Q16 GDP growth at 0.5% QoQ |
| 8.08am GMT | 8.08am GMT |
| 08:08 | 08:08 |
| Inflation leaps in Spain and France | Inflation leaps in Spain and France |
| Newsflash: Inflation in Spain has surged this month, to 3% on an EU-harmonised basis. | Newsflash: Inflation in Spain has surged this month, to 3% on an EU-harmonised basis. |
| The cost of living in France has accelerated too, jumping from 0.8% to 1.6% . | The cost of living in France has accelerated too, jumping from 0.8% to 1.6% . |
| The rises are mainly due to higher energy prices, and it suggests the eurozone inflation rate, due in two hour’s time, has also risen sharply this month. | The rises are mainly due to higher energy prices, and it suggests the eurozone inflation rate, due in two hour’s time, has also risen sharply this month. |
| If so, there’ll be a lot more pressure on the European Central Bank to consider tightening its stimulus programme, especially from Germany (where inflation jumped to 1.9%, according to figures released on Monday). | If so, there’ll be a lot more pressure on the European Central Bank to consider tightening its stimulus programme, especially from Germany (where inflation jumped to 1.9%, according to figures released on Monday). |
| *FRENCH JAN. EU-HARMONIZED CPI RISES 1.6% Y/Y; EST 1.2% | *FRENCH JAN. EU-HARMONIZED CPI RISES 1.6% Y/Y; EST 1.2% |
| French HICP inflation jumps to 1.6% YoY in January (from 0.8%), adding upside risks to the euro area figure to be released this morning. | French HICP inflation jumps to 1.6% YoY in January (from 0.8%), adding upside risks to the euro area figure to be released this morning. |
| 7.54am GMT | 7.54am GMT |
| 07:54 | 07:54 |
| Asian stock markets have had another poor day, as fears about Donald Trump’s actions continue to rile investors. | Asian stock markets have had another poor day, as fears about Donald Trump’s actions continue to rile investors. |
| Japan’s Nikkei fell by 1.7%, its biggest drop since October, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.7%. | Japan’s Nikkei fell by 1.7%, its biggest drop since October, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.7%. |
| On Monday, global markets suffered their biggest one-day drop in six weeks, amid global condemnation of the US president’s travel ban on seven countries in the Middle East. | On Monday, global markets suffered their biggest one-day drop in six weeks, amid global condemnation of the US president’s travel ban on seven countries in the Middle East. |
| The news that Trump had fired attorney general Sally Yates after she instructed lawyers not to defend the ban has added to the nervous mood, and fears that Trump is destabilising the world order. | The news that Trump had fired attorney general Sally Yates after she instructed lawyers not to defend the ban has added to the nervous mood, and fears that Trump is destabilising the world order. |
| Yoshinori Shigemi, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says (via Reuters): | Yoshinori Shigemi, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says (via Reuters): |
| Investors are becoming worried as it appears as if he was setting fire to geopolitical risks that already exist. | Investors are becoming worried as it appears as if he was setting fire to geopolitical risks that already exist. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.54am GMT | at 7.54am GMT |
| 7.31am GMT | 7.31am GMT |
| 07:31 | 07:31 |
| We don’t have any growth figures from Germany today. Instead, we’ve got a nasty fall in retail spending. | We don’t have any growth figures from Germany today. Instead, we’ve got a nasty fall in retail spending. |
| German retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, dashing hopes of a recovery after a 1.7% drop in November. | German retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, dashing hopes of a recovery after a 1.7% drop in November. |
| These figures are often volatile, but it could suggest consumers in Europe’s largest economy were cautious in the run-up to Christmas. | These figures are often volatile, but it could suggest consumers in Europe’s largest economy were cautious in the run-up to Christmas. |
| 7.19am GMT | 7.19am GMT |
| 07:19 | 07:19 |
| Outgoing French president Francois Hollande will surely be pleased that the economy is growing, but his successor still faces a big challenge: | Outgoing French president Francois Hollande will surely be pleased that the economy is growing, but his successor still faces a big challenge: |
| The problem with the French economy? Not growing fast enough to close its output gap. It's all positive but also weak. Same old, same old. | The problem with the French economy? Not growing fast enough to close its output gap. It's all positive but also weak. Same old, same old. |
| 7.11am GMT | 7.11am GMT |
| 07:11 | 07:11 |
| French GDP: instant reaction | French GDP: instant reaction |
| German journalist Gesche Wüpper points out that France’s growth during 2016 was weaker than hoped, at just 1.1% for the year. | German journalist Gesche Wüpper points out that France’s growth during 2016 was weaker than hoped, at just 1.1% for the year. |
| France: GDP growth only 1,1% in 2016, below expectations of French government which predicted 1,4%. https://t.co/pvaKVVE9cF via @Boursorama | France: GDP growth only 1,1% in 2016, below expectations of French government which predicted 1,4%. https://t.co/pvaKVVE9cF via @Boursorama |
| Bloomberg’s Maxime Sbaihi tweets this graph, showing how France’s growth has been volatile and unspectacular over the last few years: | Bloomberg’s Maxime Sbaihi tweets this graph, showing how France’s growth has been volatile and unspectacular over the last few years: |
| FRANCE: GDP up 0.4% in 4Q, but overall 2016 performance (+1.1%) is weaker than 2015 (+1.2%). Same for 2017. My take: https://t.co/59iVCDd9l9 pic.twitter.com/eq6SOQVUlv | FRANCE: GDP up 0.4% in 4Q, but overall 2016 performance (+1.1%) is weaker than 2015 (+1.2%). Same for 2017. My take: https://t.co/59iVCDd9l9 pic.twitter.com/eq6SOQVUlv |
| Arne Petimezas, analyst at AFS Group, shows how France (in green) has lagged behind Sweden, the US, Germany and the UK over the last decade. | Arne Petimezas, analyst at AFS Group, shows how France (in green) has lagged behind Sweden, the US, Germany and the UK over the last decade. |
| Sweden, US stellar performers. Dutch growth accelerating, French GDP growth stays mediocre. Suspiciously little volatility in Spain GDP. pic.twitter.com/AX09AcnclR | Sweden, US stellar performers. Dutch growth accelerating, French GDP growth stays mediocre. Suspiciously little volatility in Spain GDP. pic.twitter.com/AX09AcnclR |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.11am GMT | at 7.11am GMT |
| 6.49am GMT | 6.49am GMT |
| 06:49 | 06:49 |
| French GDP rises by 0.4% | French GDP rises by 0.4% |
| France has got Eurozone GDP Day off to a good start, by reporting that its economy accelerated in the last three months of 2016. | France has got Eurozone GDP Day off to a good start, by reporting that its economy accelerated in the last three months of 2016. |
| French GDP expanded by 0.4% in the October-December quarter, twice as fast as in July-September. This suggests that France’s recovery from the financial crisis continues, despite the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote last summer. | French GDP expanded by 0.4% in the October-December quarter, twice as fast as in July-September. This suggests that France’s recovery from the financial crisis continues, despite the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote last summer. |
| The figures also show that France’s economy grew by 1.1% during 2016. | The figures also show that France’s economy grew by 1.1% during 2016. |
| Statistics body INSEE says that consumer and business spending drove the recovery. | Statistics body INSEE says that consumer and business spending drove the recovery. |
| “Household consumption expenditures” rose by 0.6% during the month. while “gross fixed capital formation” jumped by 0.8%. | “Household consumption expenditures” rose by 0.6% during the month. while “gross fixed capital formation” jumped by 0.8%. |
| Exports were “more dynamic”, rising by +1.1% during the quarter while imports grew by 0.8%. And that means foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP growth: +0.1 points after −0.7 points in the previous quarter. | Exports were “more dynamic”, rising by +1.1% during the quarter while imports grew by 0.8%. And that means foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP growth: +0.1 points after −0.7 points in the previous quarter. |
| I’ll pull some reaction together now.... | I’ll pull some reaction together now.... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.03am GMT | at 7.03am GMT |
| 6.39am GMT | 6.39am GMT |
| 06:39 | 06:39 |
| The agenda: It's eurozone GDP Day | The agenda: It's eurozone GDP Day |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial market, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial market, the eurozone and business. |
| We’ll be looking at Europe’s economy this morning, as new data are released showing how the eurozone is performing. | We’ll be looking at Europe’s economy this morning, as new data are released showing how the eurozone is performing. |
| The first estimate of eurozone GDP for the last quarter of 2016, due at 10am GMT, may show that growth picked up to +0.4%, from +0.3%. We’ll also get some figures from individual countries, including France. | The first estimate of eurozone GDP for the last quarter of 2016, due at 10am GMT, may show that growth picked up to +0.4%, from +0.3%. We’ll also get some figures from individual countries, including France. |
| The latest eurozone unemployment figures are also due at 10am GMT; economists reckon the jobless rate will stick at 9.8% again, the lowest since 2009. But Italy’s figures, due at 9am GMT, will surely show that its recovery is lagging behind. | The latest eurozone unemployment figures are also due at 10am GMT; economists reckon the jobless rate will stick at 9.8% again, the lowest since 2009. But Italy’s figures, due at 9am GMT, will surely show that its recovery is lagging behind. |
| Plus, the latest estimate of eurozone inflation is released (yup, also at 10am GMT). | Plus, the latest estimate of eurozone inflation is released (yup, also at 10am GMT). |
| We also get German retail sales figures for December at 7am; they’re expected to bounce back by around 0.6% after shrinking by 1.8% in November. | We also get German retail sales figures for December at 7am; they’re expected to bounce back by around 0.6% after shrinking by 1.8% in November. |
| And at 8am, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi is giving speech on “Into the future: Europe’s digital integrated market” in Frankfurt, Germany. | And at 8am, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi is giving speech on “Into the future: Europe’s digital integrated market” in Frankfurt, Germany. |
| Europe’s financial markets are expected to be subdued, following yesterday’s losses as investors watched the backlash against Donald Trump’s travel ban. | Europe’s financial markets are expected to be subdued, following yesterday’s losses as investors watched the backlash against Donald Trump’s travel ban. |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7112 -0.09%$DAX 11669 -0.11%$CAC 4785 +0.01%$IBEX 9359 -0.03%$MIB 18770 +0.06% | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7112 -0.09%$DAX 11669 -0.11%$CAC 4785 +0.01%$IBEX 9359 -0.03%$MIB 18770 +0.06% |
| We’ll be tracking all the action through the day... | We’ll be tracking all the action through the day... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.40am GMT | at 7.40am GMT |