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Eurozone growth rises to 0.5%, but inflation surges to 1.8% – business live Eurozone growth rises to 0.5%; Trump advisor claims euro 'grossly undervalued'- live!
(35 minutes later)
1.50pm GMT
13:50
City experts aren’t convinced by Peter Navarro’s comments about the euro:
Now FT reports Trump's top trade adviser accusing Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to exploit the US and its EU partners 2/2
Here’s former UBS chief economist George Magnus:
Which of course is hogwash because it isn't Germany ms currency to influence or manage https://t.co/UBdCZTmgNi
Bloomberg’s Maxime Sbaihi tweets:
Anyone claiming that the euro is an "implicit Deutsche Mark" has missed 5 years of #ECB policies shaped against the will of the Bundesbank.
Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, is even less impressed:
ridiculously wrong comment of the day from #Navarro > Navarro says Germany is benefiting from gross undervalued euro -FT@realDonaldTrump
Updated
at 1.55pm GMT
1.29pm GMT
13:29
Merkel: We can't influence euro rate
Newsflash: German chancellor Angela Merkel has responded to Peter Navarro’s attack.
She says that Germany cannot influence the value of the euro, and that the country has always pushed for the European Central Bank to be independent.
*MERKEL SAYS DOESN'T WANT TO INFLUENCE EURO EXCHANGE RATE
Merkel response over weak Euro claim - Germany can't influence Euro and has always called on ECB to have independent policy
1.00pm GMT1.00pm GMT
13:0013:00
Does Peter Navarro have a point, when he claims Germany is exploiting other countries through its cheap currency?Does Peter Navarro have a point, when he claims Germany is exploiting other countries through its cheap currency?
Well.... Germany posted a record trade surplus in 2015, and will probably do the same when 2016’s numbers are added up. Cheap currencies boost exports, and no-one would argue that the euro would be more valuable if you removed the weaker members from the currency bloc.Well.... Germany posted a record trade surplus in 2015, and will probably do the same when 2016’s numbers are added up. Cheap currencies boost exports, and no-one would argue that the euro would be more valuable if you removed the weaker members from the currency bloc.
Back in 2015, former Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke blogged that the German trade surplus was “a problem” for the global economy. He argued that Berlin should boost government spending, and workers’ wages, to help drive it down.Back in 2015, former Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke blogged that the German trade surplus was “a problem” for the global economy. He argued that Berlin should boost government spending, and workers’ wages, to help drive it down.
However.... Bernanke also pointed out that Germany has little control over the value of the euro.However.... Bernanke also pointed out that Germany has little control over the value of the euro.
It has fallen near to parity with the US dollar because the European Central Bank has slashed interest rates to record lows (unpopular in Germany), imposed negative rates on banks (unpopular in Germany) and created tens of billions of euros to buy government bonds (unpopular in Germany).It has fallen near to parity with the US dollar because the European Central Bank has slashed interest rates to record lows (unpopular in Germany), imposed negative rates on banks (unpopular in Germany) and created tens of billions of euros to buy government bonds (unpopular in Germany).
Currency wars aren’t a new issue either. NBC correspondent Hans Nichols points out that the Obama administration had its own concerns about the euro, when it was stronger:Currency wars aren’t a new issue either. NBC correspondent Hans Nichols points out that the Obama administration had its own concerns about the euro, when it was stronger:
Worth noting that many of Obama's eco aids (@Austan_Goolsbee?) held a similar view, but back when EURUSD at 1: 1.35. https://t.co/ZCqUIT9V15Worth noting that many of Obama's eco aids (@Austan_Goolsbee?) held a similar view, but back when EURUSD at 1: 1.35. https://t.co/ZCqUIT9V15
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.01pm GMTat 1.01pm GMT
12.47pm GMT12.47pm GMT
12:4712:47
The prospect of a currency spat between the US and the eurozone has pushed the euro up against all major currencies.The prospect of a currency spat between the US and the eurozone has pushed the euro up against all major currencies.
The single currency is up 0.7% against the dollar now, to $1.0764, after Trump advisor Peter Navarro claimed it was “grossly undervalued”.The single currency is up 0.7% against the dollar now, to $1.0764, after Trump advisor Peter Navarro claimed it was “grossly undervalued”.
This means the US dollar is still on track to post its worst January since 2008 (as recorded earlier).This means the US dollar is still on track to post its worst January since 2008 (as recorded earlier).
The euro has also gained 0.6% against the pound to 86.1p, meaning one pound is worth €1.1608.The euro has also gained 0.6% against the pound to 86.1p, meaning one pound is worth €1.1608.
12.09pm GMT12.09pm GMT
12:0912:09
Peter Navarro’s attack on Germany over the euro shows that the Trump administration are concerned about countries who run a trade surplus with the US.Peter Navarro’s attack on Germany over the euro shows that the Trump administration are concerned about countries who run a trade surplus with the US.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV a moment ago, Citigroup global econonomics director Ebrahim Rahbari says that “talking about a currency is much easier than taking specific measures”.Speaking on Bloomberg TV a moment ago, Citigroup global econonomics director Ebrahim Rahbari says that “talking about a currency is much easier than taking specific measures”.
Currency rates have clearly been under discussion for some time, at forums such as the G20, Rahbari points out.Currency rates have clearly been under discussion for some time, at forums such as the G20, Rahbari points out.
So Navarro is “ratcheting up the discussions that have previously taken place”, he concludes.So Navarro is “ratcheting up the discussions that have previously taken place”, he concludes.
11.51am GMT11.51am GMT
11:5111:51
FT: Trump’s top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency exploitationFT: Trump’s top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency exploitation
Hold onto your hats, folks.Hold onto your hats, folks.
The Financial Times is reporting that one of Donald Trump’s advisors has hit out at Germany, saying it gets an unfair advantage due to the weakness of the euro.The Financial Times is reporting that one of Donald Trump’s advisors has hit out at Germany, saying it gets an unfair advantage due to the weakness of the euro.
Here’s the story, by the FT’s Shawn Donnan:Here’s the story, by the FT’s Shawn Donnan:
Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” euro to exploit the US and its EU partners, Donald Trump’s top trade adviser has said in comments that are likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy.Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” euro to exploit the US and its EU partners, Donald Trump’s top trade adviser has said in comments that are likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy.
Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump’s new National Trade Council, told the Financial Times the euro was like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main partners. His views suggest the new administration is focusing on currency as part of its hard-charging approach on trade ties.Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump’s new National Trade Council, told the Financial Times the euro was like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main partners. His views suggest the new administration is focusing on currency as part of its hard-charging approach on trade ties.
In a departure from past US policy, Mr Navarro also called Germany one of the main hurdles to a US trade deal with the EU and declared talks with the bloc over a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership dead.In a departure from past US policy, Mr Navarro also called Germany one of the main hurdles to a US trade deal with the EU and declared talks with the bloc over a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership dead.
Here’s the full story:Here’s the full story:
Trump’s top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency exploitationTrump’s top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency exploitation
The euro is now rising sharply against the US dollar, as traders anticipate action from Washington over this issue. It’s gained almost 0.5% to €1.074.The euro is now rising sharply against the US dollar, as traders anticipate action from Washington over this issue. It’s gained almost 0.5% to €1.074.
Dollar is trading lower in the wake of these comments: Trump trade adviser accusing Germany of manipulating currency https://t.co/2qu7sxB4QiDollar is trading lower in the wake of these comments: Trump trade adviser accusing Germany of manipulating currency https://t.co/2qu7sxB4Qi
11.30am GMT11.30am GMT
11:3011:30
Eurozone data splurge: What the experts sayEurozone data splurge: What the experts say
Here’s some early reaction to the news that eurozone growth and inflation have risen, while the unemployment rate has hit a new seven-year low.Here’s some early reaction to the news that eurozone growth and inflation have risen, while the unemployment rate has hit a new seven-year low.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets:Michael Hewson of CMC Markets:
In the Eurozone GDP figures have been released this morning. Inflation in Spain has increased to 3% as has the cost of living in France, up by 1.4%; while the broader EU CPI measure jumped to 1.8% largely driven by a jump in energy prices.In the Eurozone GDP figures have been released this morning. Inflation in Spain has increased to 3% as has the cost of living in France, up by 1.4%; while the broader EU CPI measure jumped to 1.8% largely driven by a jump in energy prices.
The French economy grew 1.1% in 2016 slightly less than expected but despite this Michel Sapin, the French minister of finance, insisted the French economy is still moving in the right direction and reducing unemployment.The French economy grew 1.1% in 2016 slightly less than expected but despite this Michel Sapin, the French minister of finance, insisted the French economy is still moving in the right direction and reducing unemployment.
Overall, Eurozone GDP came in at 0.5% for the last quarter which was better than forecast and unemployment fell. All this positive data suggests the Eurozone is recovering slowly, though Italy continues to remain a weak point.Overall, Eurozone GDP came in at 0.5% for the last quarter which was better than forecast and unemployment fell. All this positive data suggests the Eurozone is recovering slowly, though Italy continues to remain a weak point.
Anna Stupnytska, global economist at Fidelity:Anna Stupnytska, global economist at Fidelity:
#Eurozone headline inflation accelerates, big surprise in #Spain and #France. Good for #EUR. Decision time for #ECB #Draghi ahead. pic.twitter.com/GOgAfPX0Ho#Eurozone headline inflation accelerates, big surprise in #Spain and #France. Good for #EUR. Decision time for #ECB #Draghi ahead. pic.twitter.com/GOgAfPX0Ho
In 2016 #Eurozone #economy grew faster than #US, for the first time since the crisis. #Trump #Brexit #ECB #BOE #Fed pic.twitter.com/XPSmxeHTl1In 2016 #Eurozone #economy grew faster than #US, for the first time since the crisis. #Trump #Brexit #ECB #BOE #Fed pic.twitter.com/XPSmxeHTl1
Alex Lydall, Head of Dealing at Foenix Partners,Alex Lydall, Head of Dealing at Foenix Partners,
A fresh and intricate new conundrum has reared its ugly head for Mario Draghi this morning as the pressure of a significant uplift in German inflation has pushed the Eurozone figure up to 1.8% for January.A fresh and intricate new conundrum has reared its ugly head for Mario Draghi this morning as the pressure of a significant uplift in German inflation has pushed the Eurozone figure up to 1.8% for January.
The renown ‘powerhouse’ of the Eurozone is now putting significant pressure on the ECB President as euro-sceptics are quickly pointing out that stimulus measures are falling far short of creating a balanced and improved bloc state. Whilst GDP saw an uplift this morning, as well as a diminishing Unemployment rate also posted, inflation has, and will be for the foreseeable future, the focus.The renown ‘powerhouse’ of the Eurozone is now putting significant pressure on the ECB President as euro-sceptics are quickly pointing out that stimulus measures are falling far short of creating a balanced and improved bloc state. Whilst GDP saw an uplift this morning, as well as a diminishing Unemployment rate also posted, inflation has, and will be for the foreseeable future, the focus.
With such wild swings upwards, Draghi will have to adopt Monetary policy accordingly, which at present isn’t hugely clear as to what path he should, or is willing to take. Many analysts suggest Quantitative Easing is falling far short of improving the economic situation, and Draghi always notes ‘other tools’ which he can, and will adopt - perhaps now is the time for him to lay his cards on the table, so to speak.With such wild swings upwards, Draghi will have to adopt Monetary policy accordingly, which at present isn’t hugely clear as to what path he should, or is willing to take. Many analysts suggest Quantitative Easing is falling far short of improving the economic situation, and Draghi always notes ‘other tools’ which he can, and will adopt - perhaps now is the time for him to lay his cards on the table, so to speak.
Neil Wilson of ETX Capital:Neil Wilson of ETX Capital:
The ECB has been wont to point out that core inflation remains a problem and the uptick in prices might not last. And again this remains stubbornly below the headline figure at just 0.9%.The ECB has been wont to point out that core inflation remains a problem and the uptick in prices might not last. And again this remains stubbornly below the headline figure at just 0.9%.
No cause for the ECB to tighten monetary policy just yet but refreshingly upbeat figures nonetheless. The data is improving in Europe but there is as yet no sign of anything other than monetary policy divergence between the Fed and European Central Bank. Greece’s debt problems won’t go away and political risks are abundant.No cause for the ECB to tighten monetary policy just yet but refreshingly upbeat figures nonetheless. The data is improving in Europe but there is as yet no sign of anything other than monetary policy divergence between the Fed and European Central Bank. Greece’s debt problems won’t go away and political risks are abundant.
10.59am GMT10.59am GMT
10:5910:59
The eurozone didn’t manage to match Britain’s economy, though.The eurozone didn’t manage to match Britain’s economy, though.
UK GDP grew by 0.6% in the last three months of 2016, and by 2.2% during the year.UK GDP grew by 0.6% in the last three months of 2016, and by 2.2% during the year.
10.45am GMT10.45am GMT
10:4510:45
The eurozone outperformed the United States last year.The eurozone outperformed the United States last year.
Today’s growth figures show that the eurozone expanded by 1.8% in 2016; last Friday, we learned that America only grew by 1.6%.Today’s growth figures show that the eurozone expanded by 1.8% in 2016; last Friday, we learned that America only grew by 1.6%.
This is the first time the Eurozone has grown faster than the US in a calendar year since 2008, when the financial crisis struck.This is the first time the Eurozone has grown faster than the US in a calendar year since 2008, when the financial crisis struck.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.20am GMTat 11.20am GMT
10.32am GMT10.32am GMT
10:3210:32
Eurozone unemployment falls: the detailsEurozone unemployment falls: the details
Eurozone politicians will be delighted to see the region’s jobless rate fall to 9.6% (not 9.8% as I mistyped earlier, sorry).Eurozone politicians will be delighted to see the region’s jobless rate fall to 9.6% (not 9.8% as I mistyped earlier, sorry).
This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since May 2009.This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since May 2009.
The jobless rate across the European Union came in at 8.2%, unchanged from November, and the lowest since February 2009.The jobless rate across the European Union came in at 8.2%, unchanged from November, and the lowest since February 2009.
The lowest rates were recorded in the Czech Republic and Germany, while Greece suffered the worst jobless rate (23.0% in October 2016) followed by Spain (18.4%).The lowest rates were recorded in the Czech Republic and Germany, while Greece suffered the worst jobless rate (23.0% in October 2016) followed by Spain (18.4%).
There are still 20.065 million men and women out of work in the EU, including 15.571 million in the euro area.There are still 20.065 million men and women out of work in the EU, including 15.571 million in the euro area.
And young people are still finding it hard to find work; in December 2016, the youth unemployment rate was 18.6% in the EU28 and 20.9% in the euro area, compared with 19.5% and 21.8% respectively in December 2015.And young people are still finding it hard to find work; in December 2016, the youth unemployment rate was 18.6% in the EU28 and 20.9% in the euro area, compared with 19.5% and 21.8% respectively in December 2015.
10.24am GMT10.24am GMT
10:2410:24
Important point: eurozone core inflation (which strips out food and energy) was only 0.9% this month, rather than the headline figure of 1.8%.Important point: eurozone core inflation (which strips out food and energy) was only 0.9% this month, rather than the headline figure of 1.8%.
That’s little comfort to households facing a cash squeeze, but it does give the European Central Bank a good reason not to be bounced into changing monetary policy.That’s little comfort to households facing a cash squeeze, but it does give the European Central Bank a good reason not to be bounced into changing monetary policy.
Julien Lafargue, European equities strategist at JP Morgan, explains:Julien Lafargue, European equities strategist at JP Morgan, explains:
“Headline inflation is clearly picking up in the Eurozone, but a lot of that is linked to energy price base effects (+8.1% compared with +2.6% in December). As highlighted in their most recent press conference, the ECB itself is willing to look through these transient gains.“Headline inflation is clearly picking up in the Eurozone, but a lot of that is linked to energy price base effects (+8.1% compared with +2.6% in December). As highlighted in their most recent press conference, the ECB itself is willing to look through these transient gains.
As such, we believe that it is too early to call for any sort of further “tapering” in the region, especially ahead of a very busy political agenda.As such, we believe that it is too early to call for any sort of further “tapering” in the region, especially ahead of a very busy political agenda.
The eurozone's headline inflation rate is at a 4-year high but core inflation is still lagging behind. https://t.co/eB5pQv6Z0T pic.twitter.com/csR7WN8nXRThe eurozone's headline inflation rate is at a 4-year high but core inflation is still lagging behind. https://t.co/eB5pQv6Z0T pic.twitter.com/csR7WN8nXR
10.18am GMT10.18am GMT
10:1810:18
Growth up, inflation up, unemployment down....Growth up, inflation up, unemployment down....
The Euro Area economy right now. pic.twitter.com/1xzCmF443VThe Euro Area economy right now. pic.twitter.com/1xzCmF443V
10.07am GMT10.07am GMT
10:0710:07
On an annual basis, the eurozone grew by 1.8% last year - up from 1.5% in 2015.On an annual basis, the eurozone grew by 1.8% last year - up from 1.5% in 2015.
Euro area GDP +0.5% in Q4 2016, +1.8% compared with Q4 2015: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/8krAFeAw45 pic.twitter.com/yyci1wEQU7Euro area GDP +0.5% in Q4 2016, +1.8% compared with Q4 2015: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/8krAFeAw45 pic.twitter.com/yyci1wEQU7
10.05am GMT10.05am GMT
10:0510:05
Eurozone growth jumps to 0.5%; inflation leapsEurozone growth jumps to 0.5%; inflation leaps
My Reuters machine is gasping for air as a burst of newsflashes ripple out from the eurozone, giving new insights into the European economy.My Reuters machine is gasping for air as a burst of newsflashes ripple out from the eurozone, giving new insights into the European economy.
New growth figures show that the euro area grew by 0.5% in the last three months of 2016, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter.New growth figures show that the euro area grew by 0.5% in the last three months of 2016, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter.
That’s an encouraging sign, suggesting the region’s recovery is picking up pace.That’s an encouraging sign, suggesting the region’s recovery is picking up pace.
But inflation has jumped by more than expected, to 1.8% in January. That’s the highest in almost four-years, driven by a steep rise in energy prices.But inflation has jumped by more than expected, to 1.8% in January. That’s the highest in almost four-years, driven by a steep rise in energy prices.
Euro area inflation up to 1.8% in January 2016; the highest since February 2013: see flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/X0q2tkKeDb pic.twitter.com/C3KvvIEnqnEuro area inflation up to 1.8% in January 2016; the highest since February 2013: see flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/X0q2tkKeDb pic.twitter.com/C3KvvIEnqn
The European Central Bank’s target is to keep inflation just below 2% - these figures are surely going to fuel calls for the ECB to stop its bond-buying stimulus programme, and consider pushing interest rates up.The European Central Bank’s target is to keep inflation just below 2% - these figures are surely going to fuel calls for the ECB to stop its bond-buying stimulus programme, and consider pushing interest rates up.
And the unemployment rate across the region has dropped to 9.6% in December , a new seven-year low.And the unemployment rate across the region has dropped to 9.6% in December , a new seven-year low.
Wow - Eurozone inflation jumps to 1.8% in Jan, near ECB target of 2%. Unemployment also at seven year low - @AFPWow - Eurozone inflation jumps to 1.8% in Jan, near ECB target of 2%. Unemployment also at seven year low - @AFP
Details and reaction to follow....Details and reaction to follow....
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.28am GMTat 10.28am GMT
9.47am GMT9.47am GMT
09:4709:47
The latest unemployment news from Italy is rather disappointing.The latest unemployment news from Italy is rather disappointing.
The Italian jobless rate came in at 12% in December, higher than expected, while November’s reading has been revised up from 11.9% to 12%.The Italian jobless rate came in at 12% in December, higher than expected, while November’s reading has been revised up from 11.9% to 12%.
These are the highest readings since July 2015.These are the highest readings since July 2015.
9.23am GMT9.23am GMT
09:2309:23
Dollar on track for worst January since 2008Dollar on track for worst January since 2008
The US dollar is poised to suffer its worst start to any year since 2008.The US dollar is poised to suffer its worst start to any year since 2008.
The greenback has fallen by 1.9% against a basket of currencies this month, partly thanks to yesterday’s selloff as Donald Trump’s flurry of executive orders alarmed traders.The greenback has fallen by 1.9% against a basket of currencies this month, partly thanks to yesterday’s selloff as Donald Trump’s flurry of executive orders alarmed traders.
The pound, for example, has gained over 1.5 cents against the US dollar this month, from $1.233 to $1.25.The pound, for example, has gained over 1.5 cents against the US dollar this month, from $1.233 to $1.25.
Kit Juckes, currency expert at Societe Generale, says it’s very hard to know how the markets will react to Trump.Kit Juckes, currency expert at Societe Generale, says it’s very hard to know how the markets will react to Trump.
President Trump’s travel ban - and his associated decision to fire the acting Attorney General - dominates sentiment and remains good for Treasuries, the yen (and gold), but bad for bonds and the dollar.President Trump’s travel ban - and his associated decision to fire the acting Attorney General - dominates sentiment and remains good for Treasuries, the yen (and gold), but bad for bonds and the dollar.
How long will market sentiment to be affected? How far can the dollar and yields fall on this? I’m not sure serious analysis is possible, and I don’t trust my gut instincts on something as far from the usual state of affairs, but my bias is still that we’ll get back to the Trump economic program, and the implications for Fed policy, before too long.How long will market sentiment to be affected? How far can the dollar and yields fall on this? I’m not sure serious analysis is possible, and I don’t trust my gut instincts on something as far from the usual state of affairs, but my bias is still that we’ll get back to the Trump economic program, and the implications for Fed policy, before too long.
More prosaically, markets will focus on the US jobs data due Friday.More prosaically, markets will focus on the US jobs data due Friday.
8.59am GMT8.59am GMT
08:5908:59
German unemployment rate falls to 5.9%German unemployment rate falls to 5.9%
Newsflash: Germany’s jobs market remains as strong as ever.Newsflash: Germany’s jobs market remains as strong as ever.
The unemployment total in Europe’s largest economy has fallen again this month, by 26,000 people, to 2.605m.The unemployment total in Europe’s largest economy has fallen again this month, by 26,000 people, to 2.605m.
That takes Germany’s jobless rate down to 5.9%.That takes Germany’s jobless rate down to 5.9%.
*GERMAN JAN. UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS ADJUSTED 26,000; EST. 5,000 DROP*GERMAN JAN. UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS ADJUSTED 26,000; EST. 5,000 DROP
*GERMAN JAN. ADJUSTED JOBLESS RATE AT 5.9%; EST. 6.0%*GERMAN JAN. ADJUSTED JOBLESS RATE AT 5.9%; EST. 6.0%