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Republicans Have One Big Incentive to Stick With Trump Republicans Have One Big Incentive to Stick With Trump
(about 1 hour later)
Despite the growing protests against President Trump’s executive action on refugees and other people from seven predominantly Muslim countries, relatively few members of his party have spoken out against the policy — a familiar pattern since the election. To date, no congressional Republicans have consistently resisted Mr. Trump or his agenda even though his approval ratings are already historically low for a new president.Despite the growing protests against President Trump’s executive action on refugees and other people from seven predominantly Muslim countries, relatively few members of his party have spoken out against the policy — a familiar pattern since the election. To date, no congressional Republicans have consistently resisted Mr. Trump or his agenda even though his approval ratings are already historically low for a new president.
Although some Republicans may fear a voter backlash in the midterm election, the greatest threat to re-election for most G.O.P. members of Congress is still a primary challenge. That’s what many legislators probably fear they will get if they oppose Mr. Trump, who is viewed overwhelmingly favorably among their partisan base, according to polling data.Although some Republicans may fear a voter backlash in the midterm election, the greatest threat to re-election for most G.O.P. members of Congress is still a primary challenge. That’s what many legislators probably fear they will get if they oppose Mr. Trump, who is viewed overwhelmingly favorably among their partisan base, according to polling data.
There have been several Trump policies once opposed by top Republicans that many now support or at least will not actively resist. House Speaker Paul Ryan said in 2015 that a proposed Muslim ban “is not what this party stands for, and more importantly, this is not what this country stands for.” He now backs the current executive order, which Mr. Trump imposed only on Muslim-majority countries. There have been several Trump policies once opposed by top Republicans that many now support or at least will not actively resist. House Speaker Paul Ryan said in 2015 that a proposed Muslim ban “is not what this party stands for, and more importantly, this is not what this country stands for.” He now backs the current executive order; all seven affected countries have Muslim majorities.
Before Mr. Trump’s move Friday, Republicans went to great lengths to change the subject to avoid commenting on the president. To help deflect questions from reporters last week, Senator Thom Tillis even brandished a puppy. This pattern continued over the weekend. On Saturday, reporters noted that G.O.P. congressional Twitter feeds had gone quiet and that numerous top officials were not answering press inquiries.Before Mr. Trump’s move Friday, Republicans went to great lengths to change the subject to avoid commenting on the president. To help deflect questions from reporters last week, Senator Thom Tillis even brandished a puppy. This pattern continued over the weekend. On Saturday, reporters noted that G.O.P. congressional Twitter feeds had gone quiet and that numerous top officials were not answering press inquiries.
While many Republicans face risks if they publicly oppose the president, relatively few have to worry about being defeated in a general election. In the House of Representatives, for instance, only a small number of party members represent districts won by Hillary Clinton. For most of them, a primary challenge is a far greater threat — one that several anti-Trump Republicans are already anticipating. Republicans are also heavily insulated from public opinion in 2018 Senate races, which feature only two G.O.P. incumbents who are seen as potentially vulnerable in the general election.While many Republicans face risks if they publicly oppose the president, relatively few have to worry about being defeated in a general election. In the House of Representatives, for instance, only a small number of party members represent districts won by Hillary Clinton. For most of them, a primary challenge is a far greater threat — one that several anti-Trump Republicans are already anticipating. Republicans are also heavily insulated from public opinion in 2018 Senate races, which feature only two G.O.P. incumbents who are seen as potentially vulnerable in the general election.
Polling data collected by Morning Consult among more than 85,000 registered voters since the election (but before the travel executive order) demonstrates why Republicans are likely to stick with the president even if others turn against him. Over all, 47 percent of registered voters had a very or somewhat favorable view of Mr. Trump, while 48 percent had a very or somewhat unfavorable view.Polling data collected by Morning Consult among more than 85,000 registered voters since the election (but before the travel executive order) demonstrates why Republicans are likely to stick with the president even if others turn against him. Over all, 47 percent of registered voters had a very or somewhat favorable view of Mr. Trump, while 48 percent had a very or somewhat unfavorable view.
However, 54 percent of registered voters in districts represented by Republicans viewed Mr. Trump favorably compared with only 42 percent who view him unfavorably. More important, people who identify with the party overwhelmingly view him favorably. In districts represented by Republicans, fully 87 percent of registered Republicans view Mr. Trump favorably.However, 54 percent of registered voters in districts represented by Republicans viewed Mr. Trump favorably compared with only 42 percent who view him unfavorably. More important, people who identify with the party overwhelmingly view him favorably. In districts represented by Republicans, fully 87 percent of registered Republicans view Mr. Trump favorably.
Support for Mr. Trump in G.O.P. districts is even higher among registered Republicans who are extremely interested in politics (94 percent favorable), identify as strong Republicans (92 percent favorable) or say they are very conservative (94 percent favorable). These groups are especially likely to vote in primaries and are key constituencies in nomination contests for higher office. As a result, they wield disproportionate influence on legislator behavior.Support for Mr. Trump in G.O.P. districts is even higher among registered Republicans who are extremely interested in politics (94 percent favorable), identify as strong Republicans (92 percent favorable) or say they are very conservative (94 percent favorable). These groups are especially likely to vote in primaries and are key constituencies in nomination contests for higher office. As a result, they wield disproportionate influence on legislator behavior.
Given these incentives, it is unlikely that most Republicans will turn on Mr. Trump at this stage. Even when George W. Bush’s approval ratings dropped to 25 percent just before the 2008 election, for instance, more than 60 percent of Republicans approved of his performance in office, which limited the incentive of elected officials from the party to repudiate him or his agenda.Given these incentives, it is unlikely that most Republicans will turn on Mr. Trump at this stage. Even when George W. Bush’s approval ratings dropped to 25 percent just before the 2008 election, for instance, more than 60 percent of Republicans approved of his performance in office, which limited the incentive of elected officials from the party to repudiate him or his agenda.
Similarly, the support Mr. Trump commanded from Republican voters induced nearly all members of the G.O.P. establishment to embrace him after a campaign in which almost none of them endorsed his candidacy. Republican voters and elected officials then overwhelmingly stuck with Mr. Trump after the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape, following an initial flurry of defections. Even an American intelligence report that President Vladimir Putin of Russia directed a campaign to influence the election on Mr. Trump’s behalf did not dent his support within the party. It would be a surprise if the G.O.P. fully broke from the president anytime soon.Similarly, the support Mr. Trump commanded from Republican voters induced nearly all members of the G.O.P. establishment to embrace him after a campaign in which almost none of them endorsed his candidacy. Republican voters and elected officials then overwhelmingly stuck with Mr. Trump after the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape, following an initial flurry of defections. Even an American intelligence report that President Vladimir Putin of Russia directed a campaign to influence the election on Mr. Trump’s behalf did not dent his support within the party. It would be a surprise if the G.O.P. fully broke from the president anytime soon.
Morning Consult data was collected from Nov. 10, 2016, to Jan. 25, 2017, among a national sample of 85,832 registered voters. The interviews were conducted online, and the data was weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment and region.Morning Consult data was collected from Nov. 10, 2016, to Jan. 25, 2017, among a national sample of 85,832 registered voters. The interviews were conducted online, and the data was weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment and region.