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| Mexicans mull response to Trump: let migrants through – or boycott McDonalds? | |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Boycott McDonalds and Starbucks? Throw out the DEA? Let migrants flood north toward the United States? | |
| Mexicans are musing openly about how to retaliate against Donald Trump’s bullying, after the US president in his first week in office signed an executive order to build a border wall and allowed his press secretary to float the idea of slapping Mexican imports with a 20% tax to pay for it. | Mexicans are musing openly about how to retaliate against Donald Trump’s bullying, after the US president in his first week in office signed an executive order to build a border wall and allowed his press secretary to float the idea of slapping Mexican imports with a 20% tax to pay for it. |
| Mexico may lack the size, stature and economic might of its northern neighbour, but analysts say the country does have options, all of which should be under consideration due to the severity of the crisis. | Mexico may lack the size, stature and economic might of its northern neighbour, but analysts say the country does have options, all of which should be under consideration due to the severity of the crisis. |
| “He ranted and raved during the campaign, but the guy has a knife to our throat now,” said Federico Estévez, political science professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. “But it’s not like Mexico has no leverage. It does.” | “He ranted and raved during the campaign, but the guy has a knife to our throat now,” said Federico Estévez, political science professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. “But it’s not like Mexico has no leverage. It does.” |
| The Mexican president, Enrique Peña Nieto, has stated unequivocally that Mexico will not pay for a wall which could cost as much as $25bn, but analysts say price isn’t the issue. | The Mexican president, Enrique Peña Nieto, has stated unequivocally that Mexico will not pay for a wall which could cost as much as $25bn, but analysts say price isn’t the issue. |
| “It’s a deal-breaker, but not because of the wall,” Estévez said. “It’s because of the public nature of the humiliation involved. What it really entails is sinking Nafta.” | “It’s a deal-breaker, but not because of the wall,” Estévez said. “It’s because of the public nature of the humiliation involved. What it really entails is sinking Nafta.” |
| Nafta opened up a Mexican economy that was once so closed that candy and consumer goods like Levi’s Jeans were smuggled across the frontier and sold as contraband. Mexico now sends 80% of its exports north and cross-border trade totals more than $500bn. | Nafta opened up a Mexican economy that was once so closed that candy and consumer goods like Levi’s Jeans were smuggled across the frontier and sold as contraband. Mexico now sends 80% of its exports north and cross-border trade totals more than $500bn. |
| Trump could tank the deal in ways other than ripping it up. He could pursue an “America first” line on investment, making it untenable for Mexico to remain a signatory, or simply jawbone companies into avoiding Mexican investments – as he has done with carmakers. | Trump could tank the deal in ways other than ripping it up. He could pursue an “America first” line on investment, making it untenable for Mexico to remain a signatory, or simply jawbone companies into avoiding Mexican investments – as he has done with carmakers. |
| Rules of origin provisions for manufactured items could also be set so high it would make Mexico an unattractive investment destination. | Rules of origin provisions for manufactured items could also be set so high it would make Mexico an unattractive investment destination. |
| “[If] the US negotiation team proposals are so hard that go beyond [current] Nafta rules, Mexico might as well abandon Nafta,” said Gabriel Casillas, chief economist at the Mexican bank Banorte-Ixe. | “[If] the US negotiation team proposals are so hard that go beyond [current] Nafta rules, Mexico might as well abandon Nafta,” said Gabriel Casillas, chief economist at the Mexican bank Banorte-Ixe. |
| Leaving Nafta would subject Mexico to average tariffs established by WTO rules of 5.2% for agricultural goods and 3.2% for non-agricultural goods, according to Casillas. | Leaving Nafta would subject Mexico to average tariffs established by WTO rules of 5.2% for agricultural goods and 3.2% for non-agricultural goods, according to Casillas. |
| The arrangement, ironically, could “worsen the US terms of trade”, Casillas said. “With the strong depreciation that the peso has experienced, these tariffs seem like nothing.” | The arrangement, ironically, could “worsen the US terms of trade”, Casillas said. “With the strong depreciation that the peso has experienced, these tariffs seem like nothing.” |
| If the Trump team refuses to abide by WTO rules, analysts say, Mexico could impose its own tariffs on US imports and pursue non-trade retaliation – especially on security matters. | If the Trump team refuses to abide by WTO rules, analysts say, Mexico could impose its own tariffs on US imports and pursue non-trade retaliation – especially on security matters. |
| Another option for Mexico would be to stop detaining and deporting migrants from Central America – and increasingly further afield – trying to cross the country in their attempts reach to the United States. | Another option for Mexico would be to stop detaining and deporting migrants from Central America – and increasingly further afield – trying to cross the country in their attempts reach to the United States. |
| It could also lift visa restrictions on those arriving or provide transit visas – a measure included in an immigration reform measure approved in 2008, but not applied – allowing migrants to travel to the US unimpeded to try their luck with the wall. | It could also lift visa restrictions on those arriving or provide transit visas – a measure included in an immigration reform measure approved in 2008, but not applied – allowing migrants to travel to the US unimpeded to try their luck with the wall. |
| With closer commercial ties has come closer security cooperation. US agents share intelligence with their Mexican counterparts – allowing for the capture and extradition of cartel kingpins such as Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. | With closer commercial ties has come closer security cooperation. US agents share intelligence with their Mexican counterparts – allowing for the capture and extradition of cartel kingpins such as Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. |
| The Drug Enforcement Administration also maintains a presence in Mexico. But Mexico could order the closure of regional offices or even start kicking DEA agents out of the country. | The Drug Enforcement Administration also maintains a presence in Mexico. But Mexico could order the closure of regional offices or even start kicking DEA agents out of the country. |
| “There are a whole range of options you can consider,” said Alejandro Hope, a security analyst. The border wall will not stop the flow of drugs as Trump claims, Hope added, “because most drugs going to the US go through a legal port of entry”. | “There are a whole range of options you can consider,” said Alejandro Hope, a security analyst. The border wall will not stop the flow of drugs as Trump claims, Hope added, “because most drugs going to the US go through a legal port of entry”. |
| Ordinary Mexicans have mused about taking individual actions, too, although explicit anti-American sentiment has declined over the past decade as Mexico has adopted the trappings of American consumerism and culture – everything from sipping Starbucks coffee to shopping in Walmart to watching Netflix shows. | Ordinary Mexicans have mused about taking individual actions, too, although explicit anti-American sentiment has declined over the past decade as Mexico has adopted the trappings of American consumerism and culture – everything from sipping Starbucks coffee to shopping in Walmart to watching Netflix shows. |
| The 2016 Latinobárometro poll shows only 15% of Mexicans holding a negative opinion of the United States. But with Trump’s arrival and tough talk, some have spoken about boycotting US companies – most notably the fast food giant McDonalds and Starbucks, which has opened 560 stores south of the border. | |
| After Trump signed his executive order for building a border wall last week, “Adiós Starbucks” and “Adiós McDonalds” trended on Twitter – as did the hashtag #WalmartEsTrump. Politicians and some citizens pushed for a Ford boycott after the automaker pulled a $1.6bn investment from the state of San Luis Potosí. | |
| But it remains to be seen how far Mexicans are willing to go with their boycotts – especially those with money to pay for small luxuries such as Starbucks, where a large Frappuccino sells for the equivalent of the daily minimum wage. | But it remains to be seen how far Mexicans are willing to go with their boycotts – especially those with money to pay for small luxuries such as Starbucks, where a large Frappuccino sells for the equivalent of the daily minimum wage. |
| Anti-Trump protests have been modest – in spite of the threats – since his election, and much of the outrage expressed publicly over the past month has pummelled Mexican politicians over their pay and perks and a 20% hike in the government-set gasoline price. | Anti-Trump protests have been modest – in spite of the threats – since his election, and much of the outrage expressed publicly over the past month has pummelled Mexican politicians over their pay and perks and a 20% hike in the government-set gasoline price. |
| “This is not an anti-American thing,” said Esteban Illades, editor of the Mexican magazine Nexos, “but an anti-Trump thing.” | “This is not an anti-American thing,” said Esteban Illades, editor of the Mexican magazine Nexos, “but an anti-Trump thing.” |