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Trump Gets a Russia Opening, but the Path Is Risky Trump Gets an Opening from Russia, but the Path Is Risky
(35 minutes later)
WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has pledged to reset relations with Russia, may have been handed a lifeline by President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday. The Russian leader, skilled at keeping several steps ahead of his adversaries, announced that he would not retaliate in kind against the Obama administration for imposing new sanctions and expelling Russian diplomats from the United States.WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has pledged to reset relations with Russia, may have been handed a lifeline by President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday. The Russian leader, skilled at keeping several steps ahead of his adversaries, announced that he would not retaliate in kind against the Obama administration for imposing new sanctions and expelling Russian diplomats from the United States.
Mr. Trump, with three weeks until he takes office, now has the option of thanking the Russian president for his understanding and attempting a new chapter in relations between the countries on a range of areas in which they are at odds, including Syria, Ukraine, the Crimea, the Middle East, the future of NATO and nuclear weapons. Mr. Trump, with three weeks until he takes office, now has the option of thanking the Russian president for his understanding and of trying to start a new chapter in relations between the countries on a range of areas in which they are at odds, including Syria, Ukraine, Crimea, the Middle East, the future of NATO and nuclear weapons.
But moving too far, or too fast, in that direction creates enormous risks for Mr. Trump.But moving too far, or too fast, in that direction creates enormous risks for Mr. Trump.
No one is more suspicious of Mr. Putin and his intentions than Republican Party establishment members. And they, like Mr. Obama, are certain to see Mr. Putin’s gesture — including inviting the children of American diplomats to enjoy the Christmas trees at the Kremlin — as a ploy. No one is more suspicious of Mr. Putin and his intentions than members of the Republican Party establishment. And they, like Mr. Obama, are certain to see Mr. Putin’s gesture — including inviting the children of American diplomats to enjoy the Christmas trees at the Kremlin — as a ploy.
The investigations into the Russian hacking efforts to influence the 2016 election are also a major impediment. It is unlikely that Mr. Trump can derail them, and they have been embraced by most of the Republican leadership.The investigations into the Russian hacking efforts to influence the 2016 election are also a major impediment. It is unlikely that Mr. Trump can derail them, and they have been embraced by most of the Republican leadership.
Still, Mr. Trump will most likely be receptive to Mr. Putin’s overtures. In recent days he has told associates he sees little upside to what he considers needless fights with Russia, and he has long said he sees potential in maintaining a working relationship with Mr. Putin. Mr. Trump has often said he sees benefits in cooperating with Russia in fighting the Islamic State in Syria. Still, Mr. Trump will most likely be receptive to Mr. Putin’s overtures. In recent days, he has told associates he sees little upside to what he considers needless fights with Russia, and he has long said he sees potential in maintaining a working relationship with Mr. Putin. Mr. Trump has often said he sees benefits in cooperating with Russia in fighting the Islamic State in Syria.
For his part, Mr. Putin appears to be counting the days until Mr. Trump is in the Oval Office.For his part, Mr. Putin appears to be counting the days until Mr. Trump is in the Oval Office.
Despite a failing economy, the Russian president has been pursuing for the past four years what most Western analysts see as a plan to reassert Russian power throughout the region. First came the annexation of Crimea and the shadow-war in eastern Ukraine. Then came the deployment of nuclear-capable forces to the border of NATO countries, as Moscow, working to fracture the power structures in Germany and France and promote right-wing parties, sent a reinvigorated military force on patrol of the coasts of the Baltics and Western European nations. Despite a failing economy, the Russian president has been pursuing for the past four years what most Western analysts see as a plan to reassert Russian power throughout the region. First came the annexation of Crimea and the shadow war in eastern Ukraine. Then came the deployment of nuclear-capable forces to the border of NATO countries, as Moscow, working to fracture the power structures in Germany and France and promote right-wing parties, sent a reinvigorated military force on patrol of the coasts of the Baltics and Western European nations.
Now the question is whether Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin can work a trade: a relaxation of tensions in return for a relaxation of the sanctions that have helped cripple the Russian economy since the United States and its allies imposed them. Now, the question is whether Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin can work a trade: a relaxation of tensions in return for a relaxation of the sanctions that have helped cripple the Russian economy since the United States and its allies imposed them.
Mr. Trump seemed open to backing away from those sanctions in an interview with The New York Times earlier this year, when he questioned whether anyone, other than the Obama administration, saw much use in them. His nominee for secretary of state, Rex W. Tillerson, has been equally critical, largely because of the crimp they put in Exxon-Mobil’s hopes for oil and gas exploration. Mr. Trump seemed open to backing away from those sanctions in an interview with The New York Times this year, when he questioned whether anyone, other than the Obama administration, saw much use in them. His nominee for secretary of state, Rex W. Tillerson, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, has been equally critical, largely because of the crimp they put in the company’s hopes for oil and gas exploration.
Syria could be the first area of cooperation. For months, Mr. Trump has talked about working hand in glove with Moscow against the Islamic State and other jihadist groups. That seemed a fanciful notion while Russia was painting all of the Syrian opposition with the same brush and bombing the moderate Syrian opposition more than the Islamic State. But if a shaky cease-fire agreement announced on Thursday holds, it could focus Russian military action for the first time exclusively on the Islamic State and the Islamist group formerly known as the Nusra Front, which is now rebranded as Jabhat Fatel al-Sham.Syria could be the first area of cooperation. For months, Mr. Trump has talked about working hand in glove with Moscow against the Islamic State and other jihadist groups. That seemed a fanciful notion while Russia was painting all of the Syrian opposition with the same brush and bombing the moderate Syrian opposition more than the Islamic State. But if a shaky cease-fire agreement announced on Thursday holds, it could focus Russian military action for the first time exclusively on the Islamic State and the Islamist group formerly known as the Nusra Front, which is now rebranded as Jabhat Fatel al-Sham.
“The agreement potentially sets the table for Trump in Syria,” said Andrew J. Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.“The agreement potentially sets the table for Trump in Syria,” said Andrew J. Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Still, Mr. Tabler and other Syria specialists said that the opportunity came with a number of important caveats. First, the cease-fire needs to hold so that a more enduring political solution to the Syria crisis can be pursued. That will require restraint on the part of the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian opposition, the Iranians and the Russians. Still, Mr. Tabler and other Syria specialists said that the opportunity came with a number of important caveats. First, the cease-fire needs to hold so that a more enduring political solution to the Syria crisis can be pursued. That will require restraint on the part of the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, the Syrian opposition, the Iranians and the Russians.
Second, unless a political settlement is achieved that eventually eases Mr. Assad out of power, Syria may continue to be magnet for extremists and insurgency, perpetuating the very problem that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump say they are trying to solve.Second, unless a political settlement is achieved that eventually eases Mr. Assad out of power, Syria may continue to be magnet for extremists and insurgency, perpetuating the very problem that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump say they are trying to solve.
While the Obama administration was not included in the cease-fire discussions, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, extended a hand to Mr. Trump, who has never objected to Moscow’s growing influence in the Middle East and has talked about the possibility of greater cooperation with the Kremlin in fighting the Islamic State.While the Obama administration was not included in the cease-fire discussions, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, extended a hand to Mr. Trump, who has never objected to Moscow’s growing influence in the Middle East and has talked about the possibility of greater cooperation with the Kremlin in fighting the Islamic State.
“I would like to express my hope that after the administration of Donald Trump assumes its duties, it will also join the efforts in order to channel this work into one direction basing on friendly and collective cooperation,” Mr. Lavrov said during a meeting on Thursday with Mr. Putin.“I would like to express my hope that after the administration of Donald Trump assumes its duties, it will also join the efforts in order to channel this work into one direction basing on friendly and collective cooperation,” Mr. Lavrov said during a meeting on Thursday with Mr. Putin.
A Trump administration could become involved in future diplomatic talks and also coordinate with the Russians militarily. For all of its concerns about Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and hacking in the United States, the Obama administration sought to work diplomatically with the Russians on Syria.A Trump administration could become involved in future diplomatic talks and also coordinate with the Russians militarily. For all of its concerns about Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and hacking in the United States, the Obama administration sought to work diplomatically with the Russians on Syria.