A Momentary Setback for Europe’s Right-Wingers

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/06/opinion/a-momentary-setback-for-europes-right-wingers.html

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On Sunday, Austrian voters rejected the far-right, anti-immigrant candidate Norbert Hofer’s bid to become president, handing the Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen a decisive victory. Martin Schulz, president of the European Parliament, tweeted that Mr. Van der Bellen’s “victory is a heavy defeat of nationalism and anti-European, backward-looking populism.”

Mr. Hofer’s defeat is certainly good news for Austria, but Mr. Schulz’s strong words may be more wishful thinking than a reliable assessment of the prospects of populist nationalism in Europe.

Proof of that was delivered on Sunday in Italy, where voters rejected a referendum on constitutional reforms. Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, had unwisely staked his government on the referendum’s passage. On Monday, Mr. Renzi tendered his resignation, admitting, “The ‘no’ won in an incredibly clear way.” His departure, expected within days, will leave the future of Italy’s government uncertain, and further complicates chances of resolving the country’s banking crisis.

Italy’s populist Five Star Movement and far-right Northern League party lobbied hard against the referendum and celebrated Mr. Renzi’s defeat. But the rejection of Mr. Renzi’s constitutional reforms is not necessarily a boon for Italy’s populist parties. The referendum would have removed checks on executive power, making it easier to enact economic reforms but also making it easier for an extremist government to take less savory actions. Mindful of a past that includes Benito Mussolini and Silvio Berlusconi, many Italian voters simply did not think it wise to concentrate power in the country’s executive.

Meanwhile, it’s premature to conclude that right-wing extremism has suffered a definitive defeat in Austria. Mr. Hofer received 46.7 percent of the vote against Mr. Van der Bellen’s 53.3 percent. Mr. Hofer says he will now turn his attention to Austria’s parliamentary elections in 2018, where his Freedom Party stands a good chance of winning more seats than its rivals. That prospect was not lost on France’s far-right National Front party leader Marine Le Pen, who tweeted, “The next legislative elections will show their victory!”

The battle for Europe’s future will soon shift to national elections next year in France, Germany and the Netherlands, where right-wing populist parties are hoping to make historic gains. It would be perilous for Europe’s centrists to assume that these movements will retreat anytime soon.