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Austria rejects far right in presidential election as Italy goes to polls – live Exit polls predict defeat for Renzi after Austria rejects far right – live
(35 minutes later)
10.36pm GMT
22:36
Euro falls on forex markets following exit polls
My colleague Graeme Wearden has this on the reaction of Europe’s single currency to news of the Italian prime minister’s possible referendum defeat:
Europe’s single currency took an immediate dive on the foreign exchange markets when the referendum exit polls were released, but it’s not a full-blown crash. The euro has fallen by one cent against the US dollar, or almost 1%, to $1.0573.
Some economists have warned that a No victory would hamper efforts to recapitalise Italy’s banks, and undermine efforts to reform the country’s economy, which has been dogged by weak growth for the last 15 years.
10.30pm GMT
22:30
The Guardian’s Stephanie Kirchgaessner has sent her initial analysis of the first exit polls in Italy’s constitutional reform referendum, which predict Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi is heading for defeat:
If the exit polls hold, the results will be read as a victory not only for the anti-establishment M5S, but for Matteo Salvini’s anti-immigrant Northern League. Voter turnout was especially strong in areas of Lombardy and Veneto that are considered strongholds of the Northern League, or Lega Nord, as it is known in Italy.
Renzi is expected to speak at midnight in Italy. Lorenzo Guerini, a top official from the prime minister’s PD party, declined to comment on the results in a brief statement in which he said the high voter turnout was a positive sign for the country’s democracy.
The possible win for the No camp could rattle European and global markets that had been rooting for a Renzi victory and will not want to see the country besieged by more economic and political uncertainty just as its economy was – slowly – improving.
In the days leading up to the vote, unnamed bankers expressed concerns in media reports that a no win could even destabilise plans to rescue Banca Monte dei Paschi of Siena.
Updated
at 10.32pm GMT
10.26pm GMT
22:26
And here’s what that looks like in graphic form, together with the turnout – 69.1%. Remember, these are very much provisional figures based on exit polls, which are often unreliable in Italy.
Projections of the result based on the actual vote count can now be expected at regular intervals of around 30 minutes, with the first due before midnight. They should become increasingly accurate as the night goes on.
#Italy #referendumcostituzionale very early official results:Yes 46.6%No 53.4% pic.twitter.com/N4EwGf1bnQ
10.22pm GMT
22:22
Here is Reuters’ first take on the predicted heavy defeat for Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi in the referendum on constitutional reforms on which he has staked his political future:
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suffered a heavy defeat in a referendum over his plan to reform the constitution, according to exit polls.
Renzi has said he would resign if Italians rejected his plan to reduce the role of the upper house Senate and claw back powers from regional authorities. He is due to address the nation at around midnight (2300 GMT).
An exit poll by the Piepoli Institute/IPR for state television station RAI, estimated those voting ‘Yes’ to back the reform at 42-46 percent, compared with 54-58 percent for ‘No’.
Two other polls - by Tecne’ for privately owned TV channel Mediaset, by EMG Acqua for La 7 - gave ‘No’ a similar lead of at least 10 points. Voting ended at 11 p.m.
10.07pm GMT
22:07
First exit polls: victory for No campaign
Italy’s exit polls are notoriously unreliable, says Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Rome, but early indications are showing a win for No. Rai News estimates 58-54% of Italians favoured No, while 46-42% supported Yes. If the results hold, it will be a major defeat of Matteo Renzi and Italy’s centre-left Democratic party and a big win for his opponents in the Five Star Movement and the far-right Northern League.
10.04pm GMT10.04pm GMT
22:0422:04
Polls close in high-stakes Italy referendumPolls close in high-stakes Italy referendum
Polling stations have just closed in Italy, where voters are having their say in a referendum on constitutional reform backed by prime minister Matteo Renzi and most of his supporters in the Democratic party but opposed by his rivals on the left and right, including Beppe Grillo’s M5S, in large part because they want to force Renzi out.Polling stations have just closed in Italy, where voters are having their say in a referendum on constitutional reform backed by prime minister Matteo Renzi and most of his supporters in the Democratic party but opposed by his rivals on the left and right, including Beppe Grillo’s M5S, in large part because they want to force Renzi out.
Stephanie Kirchgaessner, the Guardian’s Rome correspondent, says:Stephanie Kirchgaessner, the Guardian’s Rome correspondent, says:
With just minutes to go before the polls close, pundits in Italy are saying one thing is clear: the constitutional referendum was treated as a general election and showed Italians were highly motivated to make their voices heard. Now we have to wait to see what it is they’re telling us.With just minutes to go before the polls close, pundits in Italy are saying one thing is clear: the constitutional referendum was treated as a general election and showed Italians were highly motivated to make their voices heard. Now we have to wait to see what it is they’re telling us.
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at 10.05pm GMTat 10.05pm GMT
9.31pm GMT9.31pm GMT
21:3121:31
The Guardian’s foreign affairs analyst Simon Tisdall has this to say about what Alexander Van der Bellen’s victory in Austria’s presidential elections means for Europe in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s victory in the US:The Guardian’s foreign affairs analyst Simon Tisdall has this to say about what Alexander Van der Bellen’s victory in Austria’s presidential elections means for Europe in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s victory in the US:
The sigh of relief that followed Alexander Van der Bellen’s victory in Austria’s rerun presidential election on Sunday could be heard all over Europe. After the twin traumas of Trump and Brexit, centrist parties, social democrats and liberals of all stripes had feared another triumph for the advancing forces of nativist populism represented by Van der Bellen’s rival, the far-right Freedom party’s Norbert Hofer.The sigh of relief that followed Alexander Van der Bellen’s victory in Austria’s rerun presidential election on Sunday could be heard all over Europe. After the twin traumas of Trump and Brexit, centrist parties, social democrats and liberals of all stripes had feared another triumph for the advancing forces of nativist populism represented by Van der Bellen’s rival, the far-right Freedom party’s Norbert Hofer.
[But] comforting though Van der Bellen’s victory may be for European progressives, the fact remains that slightly more than 46% of Austrian voters backed Hofer’s candidacy. That figure reveals a nation that is sharply divided, and overall, more rightwing and intolerant in its outlook than previously.[But] comforting though Van der Bellen’s victory may be for European progressives, the fact remains that slightly more than 46% of Austrian voters backed Hofer’s candidacy. That figure reveals a nation that is sharply divided, and overall, more rightwing and intolerant in its outlook than previously.
You can read his full commentary here.You can read his full commentary here.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.34pm GMTat 9.34pm GMT
9.24pm GMT9.24pm GMT
21:2421:24
A quick reminder of what exactly Italians are supposed to be voting on today (as is the way with referendums, many will of course be voting on something else altogether), courtesy again of Stephanie Kirchgaessner:A quick reminder of what exactly Italians are supposed to be voting on today (as is the way with referendums, many will of course be voting on something else altogether), courtesy again of Stephanie Kirchgaessner:
A series of major changes to the Italian political system. These reforms, which affect a third of the Italian constitution, have already been approved by parliament but by a slim margin, thus requiring that they also be passed by referendum.A series of major changes to the Italian political system. These reforms, which affect a third of the Italian constitution, have already been approved by parliament but by a slim margin, thus requiring that they also be passed by referendum.
Under the current system, which was created under Italy’s 1948 constitution, there are two chambers of parliament with directly elected lawmakers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Both have equal power and both must agree on legislation before it is passed. This means it can take a very long time for things to get done.Under the current system, which was created under Italy’s 1948 constitution, there are two chambers of parliament with directly elected lawmakers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Both have equal power and both must agree on legislation before it is passed. This means it can take a very long time for things to get done.
Under the proposed reforms, the Senate would lose almost all its power – the number of senators would be reduced from 315 to 100, and the remaining senators would no longer be elected directly. Instead, the 100 would be made up of lawmakers selected by regional assemblies. Some mayors would also serve as senators.Under the proposed reforms, the Senate would lose almost all its power – the number of senators would be reduced from 315 to 100, and the remaining senators would no longer be elected directly. Instead, the 100 would be made up of lawmakers selected by regional assemblies. Some mayors would also serve as senators.
If the yes campaign wins, most laws could be passed, including Italy’s budget, by the Chamber of Deputies without consulting the Senate, arguably making the whole process of passing laws a lot easier. The Senate would only have the power to weigh in on big issues such as other constitutional reforms and the ratification of EU treaties.If the yes campaign wins, most laws could be passed, including Italy’s budget, by the Chamber of Deputies without consulting the Senate, arguably making the whole process of passing laws a lot easier. The Senate would only have the power to weigh in on big issues such as other constitutional reforms and the ratification of EU treaties.
9.14pm GMT9.14pm GMT
21:1421:14
Here’s the Guardian’s Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner’s latest take on what the high turnout in Italy’s constitutional referendum could mean ... In a word (or four), no one really knows:Here’s the Guardian’s Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner’s latest take on what the high turnout in Italy’s constitutional referendum could mean ... In a word (or four), no one really knows:
Figures released by the interior ministry showed that about 55% of eligible voters had cast their ballots as of 7pm. However, the relatively high turnout did not clearly favour the centre-left government’s campaign or the opposition, led by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), because both sides have strongholds in high-voting regions.Figures released by the interior ministry showed that about 55% of eligible voters had cast their ballots as of 7pm. However, the relatively high turnout did not clearly favour the centre-left government’s campaign or the opposition, led by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), because both sides have strongholds in high-voting regions.
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at 9.18pm GMTat 9.18pm GMT
8.59pm GMT8.59pm GMT
20:5920:59
Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi will address the nation at around midnight (2300 GMT), Reuters reports, an hour after polls close in the high-risk referendum on constitutional reform on which he has staked his premiership (he’s said he’ll resign if he loses.)Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi will address the nation at around midnight (2300 GMT), Reuters reports, an hour after polls close in the high-risk referendum on constitutional reform on which he has staked his premiership (he’s said he’ll resign if he loses.)
Exit polls are due to be released as soon as ballots close, but full results are not due until after 2am at the earliest. Some eager souls are already there:Exit polls are due to be released as soon as ballots close, but full results are not due until after 2am at the earliest. Some eager souls are already there:
PD headquarters in Rome, hopefully gearing up for a Renzi appearance pic.twitter.com/v3IoMXa0zaPD headquarters in Rome, hopefully gearing up for a Renzi appearance pic.twitter.com/v3IoMXa0za
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.03pm GMTat 9.03pm GMT
8.54pm GMT
20:54
In Italy, the Guardian’s southern Europe specialist John Hooper reckons that based on the high turnout figures, we should maybe not be dismissing prime minister Matteo Renzi’s chances of pulling off the second upset of the night too soon:
Turnout data look good for #Renzi. His ppl reckon they can win w/ 60%+. Already at 1900 local, 54%. And polls don't close till 2300
Updated
at 8.56pm GMT
8.43pm GMT
20:43
France's Hollande: a win for European unity and tolerance
Following politicians in neighbouring Germany, France’s Socialist president François Hollande has said Van der Bellen’s win over the far-right’s Hofer in Austria’s presidential election represents a vote for European unity and tolerance.
François Hollande remercie l’Autriche d’avoir « fait le choix de l’Europe et de l’ouverture » https://t.co/O38ENOaCAj
Hollande, who announced last week that he would not be seeking a second mandate in France’s presidential polls next year, said he “warmly congratulates Alexander Van der Bellen for the clear and uncontested result”, adding that the Austrian people had “made the choice for Europe, and openness.”
Marine Le Pen of France’s far-right Front National, who is widely expected to make it through to the run-off round of the presidential election in May, sent her congratulations to Hofer, saying he had fought courageously and predicting his Freedom party would win next year’s parliamentary election in Austria:
Félicitations au FPÖ qui s'est battu avec courage. Les prochaines législatives seront celles de leur victoire ! MLP
Updated
at 8.50pm GMT
7.58pm GMT
19:58
Alexander Van der Bellen has been holding a press conference in Vienna and the Guardian’s Philip Oltermann was there.
The newly elected head of state said he would be an “open-minded, liberal-minded, and above all a pro-European president”, adding that his triumph over Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom party sent a “message to the capitals of the EU that one can win elections with high European positions.”
The defeated Hofer said his loss was “really very painful ... but the voter is always right in a democracy.” He also criticised an intervention by Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, as having contributed to the party’s defeat.
Farage said on Fox News on Friday that Hofer would hold a referendum on Austria leaving the European Union.
Pointing out that an overwhelming majority of Austrians support EU membership, Hofer described the Ukip figurehead’s comments as “a crass misjudgement”, adding: “It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.”
7.33pm GMT
19:33
Alexander Van der Bellen: who is Austria's new president?
So who is the new Austrian president? Alexander Van der Bellen is a tall, austere 72-year-old retired economics professor, a Green MP for 18 years before leaving parliament in 2012 to become a popular Vienna city councillor.
Van der Bellen’s father was born in Russia to a family descended from Dutch immigrants. His mother was born in Estonia, from where both fled when the Red Army invaded in 1940, moving first to Germany and eventually settling in Austria.
Viewed by many conservatives as too leftwing, and by more militant Greens as not radical enough, Van der Bellen spent the early part of his political career in the Social Democrats.
He campaigned on an unashamedly pro-European platform, arguing that Austria’s economic growth depended on it and saying this evening:
From the beginning, I fought and argued for a pro-European Austria. I would think it a big mistake to promote the drifting apart of the EU.
Known as Sascha in reference to his Russian roots, Van der Bellen led the Greens from 1997 to 2008, turning the party into the country’s fourth biggest political force and stepping down only after elections in which it lost votes for the first time in a decade.
A heavy smoker – “I once quit for four months … but why should I torture myself at my age?” – and outspoken supporter of gay marriage, he is divorced and recently remarried. He lists American crime novels, 19th-century Russian literature and Donald Duck cartoons among his interests.
7.13pm GMT
19:13
The Guardian’s Angela Giuffrida has been talking to voters in Italy’s constitutional reform referendum. She spoke first to Alessandra Castelli, who has lived in London for more than 10 years and may be one of the millions of Italian voters abroad to whom prime minister Matteo Renzi is looking to for salvation:
This is an occasion to really change Italy. Most of the people voting No are the ones wanting to keep the the current government out. They don’t care if it takes ages to approve a legislation, they just want Renzi out. But this is ridiculous , in a country where for 70 years we had 63 governments, and where at the G7 we always have to send a different prime minister.
Those who have to actually endure Italy’s stagnating economy, however, beg to differ. In Orvieto, 36-year-old chef and restaurant owner Valentina Santanicchio said:
It’s fine for those living a nice life in Berlin or London looking towards Italy and saying ‘it needs to change’ - we’re the ones who have to live through the misery here. It’s not that I don’t think we need a change in the constitution, but there are other priorities, the main one being jobs. Italy has so much potential, but it’s wasted. I’m nervous about the potential instability, but this is a government we didn’t elect.
Updated
at 7.16pm GMT
6.59pm GMT
18:59
Van der Bellen hails win for “freedom, equality, solidarity”
The victorious Austrian independent presidential candidate, Alexander Van der Bellen, said his unexpectedly comfortable projected win over the right-wing populist Norbert Hofer showed voters supported his message of “freedom, equality, solidarity”.
Van der Bellen, a former economics professor and left-leaning one-time leader of the Green party, said he would work to unite a country that was deeply split between the moderate liberals who voted for him and those who backed instead Hofer’s Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Freedom Party.
Final results will not be available until more than 500,000 absentee ballots are counted on Monday, the interior ministry said, but with most ballots cast on Sunday now counted, Van der Bellen appears to have an unassailable 53.3% of the vote.
6.51pm GMT
18:51
Back in Italy, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has an update on the turnout in the country’s crunch referendum on proposed constitutional reforms. The prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has promised to resign if he loses the plebiscite, prompting fears of possible political and eurozone uncertainty:
About 57% of Italian voters have cast their ballots in this referendum as of 7pm, a strong showing for a complicated question about the nation’s constitution. The high turnout numbers lend credence to the view that this vote has really touched a nerve in Italy, and is seen by some as a vote of confidence in prime minister Matteo Renzi.
It looked initially like turnout figures in the south were going to be far lower than northern and central Italy, but it now seems they have caught up. It’s hard, though, to make too many sweeping assumptions about this – while some Renzi strongholds will encourage the prime minister, other cities that back the far-right Northern League, which opposes the reforms, have also come out in full force.
6.44pm GMT
18:44
Austrian chancellor congratulates new president
The Austrian federal chancellor, Social Democrat Christian Kern, has congratulated Van der Bellen for his victory over the far-right’s Norbert Hofer.
In a clear allusion to fears by mainstream politicians that a win for Hofer and his party’s anti-immigrant views would have harmed the country’s image abroad, Kern added that:
I am convinced that we will have a president with Van der Bellen who will represent Austria domestically and abroad in an excellent manner.
6.37pm GMT
18:37
Martin Schulz, the German president of the European parliament, has congratulated Van der Bellen, saying he won Austria’s presidential election with “a clear pro-European message and campaign”, and describing the victory as:
#vanderbellens victory is a heavy defeat of nationalism and anti-European, backward-looking populism #bpw16 2/2
Partial results showed Van der Bellen with 53.3% and his far-right, anti-immigrant Freedom Party rival Norbert Hofer on 46.7%.
6.31pm GMT
18:31
The Conference of European Rabbis, which represent more than 700 leaders of mainstream synagogues across the continent, is delighted with the defeat of the far-right candidate in Austria’s presidential election.
Austria has just passed a difficult test. Let’s hope that the results in Austria will strengthen political forces in Europe which are committed to combat racism, antisemitism and xenophobia.
The Guardian published this article on Saturday on why the Jewish community was praying the Freedom party’s Norbert Hofer would fail to win the presidency.
Updated
at 6.51pm GMT