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Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right – live Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right – live
(35 minutes later)
2.22am GMT
02:22
With 98% of votes tallied in Italy, it does look as if the ‘no’ vote is holding on to its near-20 percentage point lead, heading ‘yes’ by 59.61% to 40.39%.
Interestingly, as the Sky News tweet notes, ‘yes’ votes were in the majority among overseas voters – according to this official count by 65.2% to 34.7% so far – and in three Italian regions: Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna (by a whisker) and Tuscany.
Scrutinio al 98%: il No al 59,6%, il Sì al 40,4%. Il Sì prevale all'estero e in tre regioni: https://t.co/ckK4Nq5S0o. #SkyReferendum pic.twitter.com/h6eCKjHnaV
1.55am GMT1.55am GMT
01:5501:55
Martin FarrerMartin Farrer
Market reaction to the Italian referendum result has been muted by comparison with the ups and downs in the hours and days after the Brexit and Trump votes.Market reaction to the Italian referendum result has been muted by comparison with the ups and downs in the hours and days after the Brexit and Trump votes.
Shares are down across most Asian markets:Shares are down across most Asian markets:
In futures trading, the FTSE100 is expected to dip 0.68% at the open while the Dow Jones average on Wall Street is set to fall 0.18%.In futures trading, the FTSE100 is expected to dip 0.68% at the open while the Dow Jones average on Wall Street is set to fall 0.18%.
The euro has slipped to a 20-month low of 1.0575 against the US dollar.The euro has slipped to a 20-month low of 1.0575 against the US dollar.
However, most reaction seems to agree that the biggest issue is the future of Italy’s fragile banking system.However, most reaction seems to agree that the biggest issue is the future of Italy’s fragile banking system.
The referendum was meant to smooth this week’s intended refinancing of Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third-largest bank, which needs to raise an extra €5bn in capital and sell off €28bn of bad loans. But the political uncertainty set off by the referendum result will make it more difficult to secure that funding and condemn Italy’s already moribund economy to more months of stagnation.The referendum was meant to smooth this week’s intended refinancing of Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third-largest bank, which needs to raise an extra €5bn in capital and sell off €28bn of bad loans. But the political uncertainty set off by the referendum result will make it more difficult to secure that funding and condemn Italy’s already moribund economy to more months of stagnation.
Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Tokyo, told Reuters:Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Tokyo, told Reuters:
The ‘no’ vote was priced in to a certain extent in advance. So I do not expect a freefall in the euro in the near term.The ‘no’ vote was priced in to a certain extent in advance. So I do not expect a freefall in the euro in the near term.
But in the long run, this will delay progress in Italy’s efforts to get rid of banks’ bad debt and is likely to widen the yield spread of German [and Italian bonds].But in the long run, this will delay progress in Italy’s efforts to get rid of banks’ bad debt and is likely to widen the yield spread of German [and Italian bonds].
1.45am GMT1.45am GMT
01:4501:45
Working out what the message voters wanted to send in Italy will not be straightforward, Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports from Rome:Working out what the message voters wanted to send in Italy will not be straightforward, Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports from Rome:
It was clear from the high voter turnout – 68% of eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday – that Italians were indeed sending a message to the political establishment in Rome. But deciphering that message will not be easy, despite celebratory claims from Europe’s far right.It was clear from the high voter turnout – 68% of eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday – that Italians were indeed sending a message to the political establishment in Rome. But deciphering that message will not be easy, despite celebratory claims from Europe’s far right.
Italy is facing a number of big issues that were not technically on the ballot: a migration crisis in which the country feels abandoned by Europe; an unresolved banking crisis; steep unemployment and a debt load of 132% of GDP with no solution in sight.Italy is facing a number of big issues that were not technically on the ballot: a migration crisis in which the country feels abandoned by Europe; an unresolved banking crisis; steep unemployment and a debt load of 132% of GDP with no solution in sight.
The fact is that Renzi’s defeat was almost a foregone conclusion give the scale of the opposition he faced, and not just from Northern League leader Matteo Salvini and Beppe Grillo, the bombastic former comedian and head of the Five Star Movement. But even from within the Democratic party and leftwing voters who defied the prime minister for a whole host of reasons, including a former prime minister, Mario Monti.The fact is that Renzi’s defeat was almost a foregone conclusion give the scale of the opposition he faced, and not just from Northern League leader Matteo Salvini and Beppe Grillo, the bombastic former comedian and head of the Five Star Movement. But even from within the Democratic party and leftwing voters who defied the prime minister for a whole host of reasons, including a former prime minister, Mario Monti.
While Salvini and M5S officials have touted the win as a major victory for their causes – they are not totally aligned but are vehemently opposed to the euro and the EU generally – it is clear that many Italians who voted no would not necessarily support either party in a general election.While Salvini and M5S officials have touted the win as a major victory for their causes – they are not totally aligned but are vehemently opposed to the euro and the EU generally – it is clear that many Italians who voted no would not necessarily support either party in a general election.
Indeed, some were indifferent to Renzi’s fate but believed the rise of populism made proposed changes to the constitution especially dangerous.Indeed, some were indifferent to Renzi’s fate but believed the rise of populism made proposed changes to the constitution especially dangerous.
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.49am GMTat 1.49am GMT
1.32am GMT1.32am GMT
01:3201:32
While defeat for Renzi’s proposal was not unexpected in Italy, the size of the ‘no’ victory has exceeded most predictions.While defeat for Renzi’s proposal was not unexpected in Italy, the size of the ‘no’ victory has exceeded most predictions.
As the Financial Times’ bureau chief in Rome notes:As the Financial Times’ bureau chief in Rome notes:
There was actually a massive polling miss in the Italian referendum. He was behind 5-7 pp in the polls, will end up losing by nearly 20ppThere was actually a massive polling miss in the Italian referendum. He was behind 5-7 pp in the polls, will end up losing by nearly 20pp
The current tally has ‘yes’ on 40.28%; ‘no’ on 59.72%.The current tally has ‘yes’ on 40.28%; ‘no’ on 59.72%.
1.22am GMT1.22am GMT
01:2201:22
Monday’s Guardian front page leads on news from Italy and Renzi’s departure:Monday’s Guardian front page leads on news from Italy and Renzi’s departure:
Guardian front page, Monday 5 December 2016: Italy reels after referendum defeat forces Renzi to resign pic.twitter.com/rWZAAYXCtcGuardian front page, Monday 5 December 2016: Italy reels after referendum defeat forces Renzi to resign pic.twitter.com/rWZAAYXCtc
1.13am GMT1.13am GMT
01:1301:13
After a tumultuous night in Italy, Matteo Renzi will on Monday head to the Quirinal palace to submit his resignation to president Sergio Mattarella.After a tumultuous night in Italy, Matteo Renzi will on Monday head to the Quirinal palace to submit his resignation to president Sergio Mattarella.
It is 14 months until the next elections are due, and it’s expected that Mattarella will attempt to pull together a caretaker prime minister – likely from from Renzi’s Democratic party – to serve until the February 2018 vote.It is 14 months until the next elections are due, and it’s expected that Mattarella will attempt to pull together a caretaker prime minister – likely from from Renzi’s Democratic party – to serve until the February 2018 vote.
The populist Five Star Movement and the anti-immigrant Northern League want early elections – but have no power to make that happen.The populist Five Star Movement and the anti-immigrant Northern League want early elections – but have no power to make that happen.
Forza Italia, the right-wing party led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi (yes, him), is less keen on a snap poll, Buzzfeed’s Alberto Nardelli says:Forza Italia, the right-wing party led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi (yes, him), is less keen on a snap poll, Buzzfeed’s Alberto Nardelli says:
Italian politics: Forza Italia's Brunetta saying he doesn't want snap elections. Of course he doesn't. Forza Italia would be annihilated.Italian politics: Forza Italia's Brunetta saying he doesn't want snap elections. Of course he doesn't. Forza Italia would be annihilated.
12.53am GMT12.53am GMT
00:5300:53
We are closer to a final result in Italy and the no vote is holding steady at around 59%.We are closer to a final result in Italy and the no vote is holding steady at around 59%.
With 90.8% of precincts reporting:With 90.8% of precincts reporting:
12.42am GMT12.42am GMT
00:4200:42
Italy: what happens next?Italy: what happens next?
Stephanie KirchgaessnerStephanie Kirchgaessner
Italy is not voting to leave the eurozone or the EU. But there could still be far-reaching implications. Renzi came into power promising to be a reformer, to drag Italy “out of the swamp” and build a strong centre-left majority, so his loss is a big blow to people who think his defeat is a rejection of his agenda.Italy is not voting to leave the eurozone or the EU. But there could still be far-reaching implications. Renzi came into power promising to be a reformer, to drag Italy “out of the swamp” and build a strong centre-left majority, so his loss is a big blow to people who think his defeat is a rejection of his agenda.
It will also be seen, much like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, as a victory of populist forces over an establishment party, although the reality is more complicated. A new caretaker government will probably take over and new elections could be held as soon as next year.It will also be seen, much like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, as a victory of populist forces over an establishment party, although the reality is more complicated. A new caretaker government will probably take over and new elections could be held as soon as next year.
One reason some observers think this vote is such a big deal is because it could open the door to the election of the Five Star Movement (M5S), a populist, anti-establishment party that has said in the past it wants to call a referendum on membership of the euro.One reason some observers think this vote is such a big deal is because it could open the door to the election of the Five Star Movement (M5S), a populist, anti-establishment party that has said in the past it wants to call a referendum on membership of the euro.
But even if the M5S took over Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister’s residence, it would not mean Italy abandoning the euro anytime soon. Doing that would require a constitutional amendment and another referendum. Euroscepticism is definitely on the rise in Italy, but there is no overwhelming political consensus against the single currency right now.But even if the M5S took over Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister’s residence, it would not mean Italy abandoning the euro anytime soon. Doing that would require a constitutional amendment and another referendum. Euroscepticism is definitely on the rise in Italy, but there is no overwhelming political consensus against the single currency right now.
12.36am GMT12.36am GMT
00:3600:36
The victor in Austria’s presidential election, Alexander Van der Bellen, said his victory has sent “a red and white signal of hope to all the capitals of the European Union”, as he pledged to be a president for all Austrians, whether they had voted for him or against him.The victor in Austria’s presidential election, Alexander Van der Bellen, said his victory has sent “a red and white signal of hope to all the capitals of the European Union”, as he pledged to be a president for all Austrians, whether they had voted for him or against him.
12.30am GMT12.30am GMT
00:3000:30
On that note, Reuters has this latest on market reaction to the vote in Italy and news of Renzi’s imminent departure:On that note, Reuters has this latest on market reaction to the vote in Italy and news of Renzi’s imminent departure:
US equity index futures fell after a stinging defeat for Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, who said he would resign following a referendum over his proposals for constitutional reform.US equity index futures fell after a stinging defeat for Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, who said he would resign following a referendum over his proposals for constitutional reform.
Exit polls and early projections on Sunday showed Renzi lost the referendum by a wide margin.Exit polls and early projections on Sunday showed Renzi lost the referendum by a wide margin.
“Buy bonds and sell stocks,” hedge fund investor Douglas Kass, who runs Seabreeze Partners Management Inc, said after the vote. “The technicals and fundamentals and political/geopolitical considerations are all souring.”“Buy bonds and sell stocks,” hedge fund investor Douglas Kass, who runs Seabreeze Partners Management Inc, said after the vote. “The technicals and fundamentals and political/geopolitical considerations are all souring.”
S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 0.3% shortly after electronic trading resumed on Sunday evening – paring some losses after initially falling 0.5% – signalling Wall Street could start the week on a shakier footing after stumbling last week for the first time since the 8 November US election.S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 0.3% shortly after electronic trading resumed on Sunday evening – paring some losses after initially falling 0.5% – signalling Wall Street could start the week on a shakier footing after stumbling last week for the first time since the 8 November US election.
Last week, the S&P 500 shed 1%. Major Wall Street indexes had previously hit a series of record highs over the past three weeks following Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, as investors rotated into sectors expected to benefit from campaign promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and bank deregulation.Last week, the S&P 500 shed 1%. Major Wall Street indexes had previously hit a series of record highs over the past three weeks following Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, as investors rotated into sectors expected to benefit from campaign promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and bank deregulation.
12.23am GMT12.23am GMT
00:2300:23
The referendum result in Italy has prompted a drop for the euro – but not a Brexit-style lurch:The referendum result in Italy has prompted a drop for the euro – but not a Brexit-style lurch:
Post Renzirendum: € at 1.5 year low versus $ - 1% down, 4-5% down on month (orange). Not yet a patch on post brexit referendum £ slide -blue pic.twitter.com/DjQi6jAkvSPost Renzirendum: € at 1.5 year low versus $ - 1% down, 4-5% down on month (orange). Not yet a patch on post brexit referendum £ slide -blue pic.twitter.com/DjQi6jAkvS
12.16am GMT12.16am GMT
00:1600:16
Italy: latest vote countItaly: latest vote count
With 73.7% of precincts declared:With 73.7% of precincts declared:
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.16am GMTat 12.16am GMT
12.15am GMT12.15am GMT
00:1500:15
And Beppe Grillo, founder of Italy’s populist Five Star Movement, has called, via his blog, for an early election “as soon as possible”.And Beppe Grillo, founder of Italy’s populist Five Star Movement, has called, via his blog, for an early election “as soon as possible”.
Beppe #Grillo on his blog - 'democracy has won' against 'propaganda by the regime', 'citizens are victorious' pic.twitter.com/Wncj24SC2WBeppe #Grillo on his blog - 'democracy has won' against 'propaganda by the regime', 'citizens are victorious' pic.twitter.com/Wncj24SC2W
A snap election is by no means certain, of course.A snap election is by no means certain, of course.
12.11am GMT12.11am GMT
00:1100:11
Back to Italy, where Virginia Raggi, the mayor of Rome and a member of the Five Star Movement, has tweeted her approval of the referendum result:Back to Italy, where Virginia Raggi, the mayor of Rome and a member of the Five Star Movement, has tweeted her approval of the referendum result:
Italians have won. Now we rebuild the country. Our revolution does not end, in Rome and in Italy.Italians have won. Now we rebuild the country. Our revolution does not end, in Rome and in Italy.
#HaVintoLaDemocrazia Hanno vinto gli italiani. Ora ricostruiamo il Paese. La nostra rivoluzione non si ferma, a Roma e in Italia.#HaVintoLaDemocrazia Hanno vinto gli italiani. Ora ricostruiamo il Paese. La nostra rivoluzione non si ferma, a Roma e in Italia.
12.07am GMT12.07am GMT
00:0700:07
While we’re on the subject of prime ministerial resignations, here’s another: John Key, prime minister of New Zealand, has just announced he will step down within a week.While we’re on the subject of prime ministerial resignations, here’s another: John Key, prime minister of New Zealand, has just announced he will step down within a week.
You can catch up on that news here:You can catch up on that news here:
12.06am GMT12.06am GMT
00:0600:06
Claire PhippsClaire Phipps
This is Claire Phipps picking up the live blog from Jon Henley, with continuing live coverage as Italy reels from the resignation of prime minister Matteo Renzi.This is Claire Phipps picking up the live blog from Jon Henley, with continuing live coverage as Italy reels from the resignation of prime minister Matteo Renzi.
We’ll also have fallout from the result in Austria, where Alexander Van der Bellen has defeated far-right candidate Norbert Hofer for the presidency.We’ll also have fallout from the result in Austria, where Alexander Van der Bellen has defeated far-right candidate Norbert Hofer for the presidency.