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Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right – live Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right – live
(35 minutes later)
12.53am GMT
00:53
We are closer to a final result in Italy and the no vote is holding steady at around 59%.
With 90.8% of precincts reporting:
12.42am GMT
00:42
Italy: what happens next?
Stephanie Kirchgaessner
Italy is not voting to leave the eurozone or the EU. But there could still be far-reaching implications. Renzi came into power promising to be a reformer, to drag Italy “out of the swamp” and build a strong centre-left majority, so his loss is a big blow to people who think his defeat is a rejection of his agenda.
It will also be seen, much like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, as a victory of populist forces over an establishment party, although the reality is more complicated. A new caretaker government will probably take over and new elections could be held as soon as next year.
One reason some observers think this vote is such a big deal is because it could open the door to the election of the Five Star Movement (M5S), a populist, anti-establishment party that has said in the past it wants to call a referendum on membership of the euro.
But even if the M5S took over Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister’s residence, it would not mean Italy abandoning the euro anytime soon. Doing that would require a constitutional amendment and another referendum. Euroscepticism is definitely on the rise in Italy, but there is no overwhelming political consensus against the single currency right now.
12.36am GMT
00:36
The victor in Austria’s presidential election, Alexander Van der Bellen, said his victory has sent “a red and white signal of hope to all the capitals of the European Union”, as he pledged to be a president for all Austrians, whether they had voted for him or against him.
12.30am GMT
00:30
On that note, Reuters has this latest on market reaction to the vote in Italy and news of Renzi’s imminent departure:
US equity index futures fell after a stinging defeat for Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, who said he would resign following a referendum over his proposals for constitutional reform.
Exit polls and early projections on Sunday showed Renzi lost the referendum by a wide margin.
“Buy bonds and sell stocks,” hedge fund investor Douglas Kass, who runs Seabreeze Partners Management Inc, said after the vote. “The technicals and fundamentals and political/geopolitical considerations are all souring.”
S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 0.3% shortly after electronic trading resumed on Sunday evening – paring some losses after initially falling 0.5% – signalling Wall Street could start the week on a shakier footing after stumbling last week for the first time since the 8 November US election.
Last week, the S&P 500 shed 1%. Major Wall Street indexes had previously hit a series of record highs over the past three weeks following Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, as investors rotated into sectors expected to benefit from campaign promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and bank deregulation.
12.23am GMT12.23am GMT
00:2300:23
The referendum result in Italy has prompted a drop for the euro – but not a Brexit-style lurch:The referendum result in Italy has prompted a drop for the euro – but not a Brexit-style lurch:
Post Renzirendum: € at 1.5 year low versus $ - 1% down, 4-5% down on month (orange). Not yet a patch on post brexit referendum £ slide -blue pic.twitter.com/DjQi6jAkvSPost Renzirendum: € at 1.5 year low versus $ - 1% down, 4-5% down on month (orange). Not yet a patch on post brexit referendum £ slide -blue pic.twitter.com/DjQi6jAkvS
12.16am GMT12.16am GMT
00:1600:16
Italy: latest vote countItaly: latest vote count
With 73.7% of precincts declared:With 73.7% of precincts declared:
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.16am GMTat 12.16am GMT
12.15am GMT12.15am GMT
00:1500:15
And Beppe Grillo, founder of Italy’s populist Five Star Movement, has called, via his blog, for an early election “as soon as possible”.And Beppe Grillo, founder of Italy’s populist Five Star Movement, has called, via his blog, for an early election “as soon as possible”.
Beppe #Grillo on his blog - 'democracy has won' against 'propaganda by the regime', 'citizens are victorious' pic.twitter.com/Wncj24SC2WBeppe #Grillo on his blog - 'democracy has won' against 'propaganda by the regime', 'citizens are victorious' pic.twitter.com/Wncj24SC2W
A snap election is by no means certain, of course.A snap election is by no means certain, of course.
12.11am GMT12.11am GMT
00:1100:11
Back to Italy, where Virginia Raggi, the mayor of Rome and a member of the Five Star Movement, has tweeted her approval of the referendum result:Back to Italy, where Virginia Raggi, the mayor of Rome and a member of the Five Star Movement, has tweeted her approval of the referendum result:
Italians have won. Now we rebuild the country. Our revolution does not end, in Rome and in Italy.Italians have won. Now we rebuild the country. Our revolution does not end, in Rome and in Italy.
#HaVintoLaDemocrazia Hanno vinto gli italiani. Ora ricostruiamo il Paese. La nostra rivoluzione non si ferma, a Roma e in Italia.#HaVintoLaDemocrazia Hanno vinto gli italiani. Ora ricostruiamo il Paese. La nostra rivoluzione non si ferma, a Roma e in Italia.
12.07am GMT12.07am GMT
00:0700:07
While we’re on the subject of prime ministerial resignations, here’s another: John Key, prime minister of New Zealand, has just announced he will step down within a week.While we’re on the subject of prime ministerial resignations, here’s another: John Key, prime minister of New Zealand, has just announced he will step down within a week.
You can catch up on that news here:You can catch up on that news here:
12.06am GMT12.06am GMT
00:0600:06
Claire PhippsClaire Phipps
This is Claire Phipps picking up the live blog from Jon Henley, with continuing live coverage as Italy reels from the resignation of prime minister Matteo Renzi.This is Claire Phipps picking up the live blog from Jon Henley, with continuing live coverage as Italy reels from the resignation of prime minister Matteo Renzi.
We’ll also have fallout from the result in Austria, where Alexander Van der Bellen has defeated far-right candidate Norbert Hofer for the presidency.We’ll also have fallout from the result in Austria, where Alexander Van der Bellen has defeated far-right candidate Norbert Hofer for the presidency.
11.49pm GMT
23:49
Here is what Stephanie Kirchgaessner, the Guardian’s Rome correspondent, said earlier about what was likely to happen next after the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, hands in his promised resignation on Monday:
It will fall to President Mattarella to try to cobble together a new government with the agreement of the country’s largest parties, including Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative Forza Italia. The young guns of the Five Star Movement, including Luigi di Maio, made clear last week that they would call for a swift election if the No camp was victorious.
But while some see the potential rise of either the M5S or the Northern League – which are both anti-EU – as a sign that Italy could try to pull out of the single market, some analysts have downplayed that possibility. An exit from the euro would be exceedingly complicated and – while Euroscepticism is clearly on the rise – there is no clear political consensus to leave the single currency.
Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London, said the most likely outcome would be for Renzi to resign and a new caretaker government to take over. The new government would then be expected to focus entirely on the passage of a new electoral law, which in turn would hamper the ability of either the M5S or the Northern League from winning a strong majority in the next elections.
Updated
at 11.50pm GMT
11.36pm GMT
23:36
A much-needed note of calm from the BBC’s Gabriel Gatehouse. This referendum defeat does not necessarily mean snap elections, still less Italy exiting the euro:
Hold your horses though. This doesn't mean an exit from € let alone the EU. Doesn't even necessarily mean imminent elections
11.29pm GMT
23:29
Renzi confirms he will resign
Following what looks set to be a heavy defeat in his referendum on constitutional reforms, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi confirms – as he promised – that he will resign. “I have lost and I say it out loud,” Renzi told a news conference, adding that he would submit his resignation on Monday.
Updated
at 11.33pm GMT
11.25pm GMT
23:25
Renzi says he takes full responsibility for defeat
Addressing the nation live on television from the Palazzo Chigi, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi concedes and says he “takes full responsibility” for the heavy referendum defeat.
Updated
at 11.27pm GMT
11.20pm GMT
23:20
Although, as this tweet notes, “I’m coming” is what Renzi tweeted when he took office. So perhaps we should not assume he will depart the scene immediately ...
Context: "Arrivo arrivo" is what Renzi tweeted from his first meeting with the president of the Republic when he took office. https://t.co/beiruiMjo6
11.18pm GMT
23:18
Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, is expected to address the nation shortly after suffering what looks like a heavy defeat in the constitutional referendum which he called – and after which he promised to resign if he lost.
Renzi has just tweeted to thank his supporters “anyway”, and to confirm he will be speaking live from Palazzo Chigi in a few minutes. “Long live Italy! PS I’m coming,” he concludes.
Grazie a tutti, comunque. Tra qualche minuto sarò in diretta da Palazzo Chigi. Viva l'Italia! Ps Arrivo, arrivo😀
11.10pm GMT
23:10
The Northern League’s Matteo Salvini is clearly ecstatic with the No camp’s sweeping victory, writes Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Rome. The xenophobic Salvini clearly saw the victory as part of the right wing’s onward march:
Viva Trump, viva Putin, viva la Le Pen e viva la Lega! https://t.co/r8FXztp9Am
But, explains Stephanie, even if it looks like Renzi was indeed trounced, that does not necessarily mean that every Italian who voted No was voting in favour of Salvini or his brother-in-arms, the M5S’s Beppe Grillo:
While some saw the plebiscite as a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, others – including those on the left and some within Renzi’s own party – saw the referendum as strictly a question on the topic at hand: whether or not to change the constitution.
Indeed, some – like a former communist the Guardian chatted with yesterday – voted No precisely because of concerns that rightwing forces were gaining traction. The reforms were seen by these opponents as weakening Italy’s democracy and potentially handing too much power to whoever inhabits the prime minister’s residence at Palazzo Chigi.
Updated
at 11.13pm GMT
11.06pm GMT
23:06
Having had to commiserate with Norbert Hofer, the losing far-right candidate in Austria’s presidential election, Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right Front National, cheers Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega Nord – which backed the victorious No camp in Italy’s referendum:
Bravo à notre ami @matteosalvinimi pour cette victoire du NON ! MLP #referendumcostituzionale
10.59pm GMT
22:59
The Italian interior ministry has a live results page, which you can visit here.
This is what it looked like almost exactly an hour after the polls closed:
#italyreferendum : votes being counted, according to the Italian Ministry of Interior: https://t.co/Rzi2TybY38 h/t @woolclip pic.twitter.com/pNJeQ5Vp2m
10.48pm GMT
22:48
The first projection based on the actual vote count in Italy’s constitutional referendum shows Matteo Renzi may have suffered an even heavier defeat, Reuters reports:
The projection by the Piepoli Institute/IPR for state broadcaster RAI estimated those voting ‘Yes’ to back the reform at 39-43%, compared with 57-61% for ‘No’. The projection pointed to an even wider defeat for Renzi than was suggested by three exit polls published immediately after polls closed.
Updated
at 10.59pm GMT