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Italian referendum and Austrian presidential election – live Italian referendum and Austrian presidential election – live
(35 minutes later)
4.40pm GMT
16:40
If confirmed, the margin of Van der Bellen’s forecast win over Hofer in Austria is a major surprise.
Polls in the run-up to the vote had the two candidates neck-and-neck, with several putting the far-right Freedom party’s Hofer ahead. But the first official results, released minutes ago, show the independent with 53.5% of the vote, with Hofer 46.4%.
Interior ministry officials have told the Associated Press that votes obviously continue to be counted and the percentages are therefore almost certain to vary, but the outcome is now unlikely to change.
4.32pm GMT
16:32
Hofer’s campaign manager appears to confirm the early exit poll trend, telling state broadcaster ORF that Van der Bellen has won, Reuter’s reports.
4.27pm GMT
16:27
Austrian state broadcaster: exit polls suggest win for Van der Bellen
Philip Oltermann in Vienna reports that early exit polls indicate Austria has voted in Green-backed candidate Alexander Van der Bellen as its next president, handing a painful defeat to rightwing populist Norbert Hofer.
According to public broadcaster ORF, Alexander Van der Bellen had gained 53.6% of the vote with 58% of voting districts counted – too strong a lead to be turned around for Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer, who had only gained 46.6% of the vote. The margin of error is around 1.2%, which accounts for the optimism now coming form the Van der Bellen camp.
With officials under clear instructions not to cut any corners to avoid another embarrassing recount, many experts have suggested a definitive result may not emerged until Monday, Tuesday, or possibly even Wednesday.
The Freedom Party candidate and his wife Verena Hofer cast their votes in his hometown of Pinkafeld in Burgenland, the easternmost and least populous region of Austria. “I am calm and confident”, he told the press outside the voting booth.
Van der Bellen and his wife Doris Schmidauer voted at around 11 am at a school in Vienna’s Mariahilf district, telling journalists that he did not expect a clear result until Monday.
4.21pm GMT
16:21
Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports that there is already one alleged voting irregularity getting a good deal of attention in Italy today:
We can call it Pencilgate. The Tuscan singer PieTro Pelù claimed in a complaint that has circulated online that was given a pencil at the polls that was erasable. In comment on social media, some responded by saying that the pencil was indeed indelible on the section of the ballot where people actually vote, but not on normal paper.
A voter has complained that the pencil used on the ballot was erasable, causing stir https://t.co/EjTD4eGeUm via @repubblicait
4.16pm GMT
16:16
In Austria, reports Philip Oltermann, polling booths have now closed and the first region has been counted.
Only anecdotal evidence so far, but the first two districts that were 50/50 in May now show a lead for Van der Bellen. The first projections will be without the capital, Vienna, so could well show Hofer in the lead. The first Vienna districts will be coming through at about 6pm local time.
4.08pm GMT4.08pm GMT
16:0816:08
In Italy, writes the Guardian’s Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirschgaessner, there are still many hours to go before voters will know the outcome of today’s referendum. In Italy, writes the Guardian’s Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner, there are still many hours to go before voters will know the outcome of today’s referendum.
Polls close at 11pm local time, but we’re not likely to know the results for a while later and exit polls are not considered to be especially reliable. Official voter turnout figures released at noon, which will be updated at 7pm, show relatively high turnout in northern and central Italy, and low turnout in the south. That may favour Renzi and the yes camp, but it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions. It looks like pro-Renzi Florence and the area around Bologna had a high turnout in the morning, but so did strongholds of the rightwing Northern League, which supports the no vote.Polls close at 11pm local time, but we’re not likely to know the results for a while later and exit polls are not considered to be especially reliable. Official voter turnout figures released at noon, which will be updated at 7pm, show relatively high turnout in northern and central Italy, and low turnout in the south. That may favour Renzi and the yes camp, but it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions. It looks like pro-Renzi Florence and the area around Bologna had a high turnout in the morning, but so did strongholds of the rightwing Northern League, which supports the no vote.
Unclear whether high turnout will benefit most the Yes or No. Final turnout likely above 50%. No quorum #italyreferendumUnclear whether high turnout will benefit most the Yes or No. Final turnout likely above 50%. No quorum #italyreferendum
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.09pm GMT at 4.11pm GMT
4.02pm GMT4.02pm GMT
16:0216:02
A brief guide, first, to who’s who and what’s what in the presidential election in Austria, where polls have just closed.A brief guide, first, to who’s who and what’s what in the presidential election in Austria, where polls have just closed.
The candidates: Hofer, a 45-year old engineer who has risen through the ranks of his Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Freedom party. A smooth talker with a ready smile, he changes his style, tone and the contents of his message depending on his audience. Van der Bellen is a former economics professor, running as an independent but backed by the Greens. He’s strongly supportive of the EU, is in favour of liberal migration policies, and often sounds the alarm against what he sees as Europe’s rightward driftThe candidates: Hofer, a 45-year old engineer who has risen through the ranks of his Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Freedom party. A smooth talker with a ready smile, he changes his style, tone and the contents of his message depending on his audience. Van der Bellen is a former economics professor, running as an independent but backed by the Greens. He’s strongly supportive of the EU, is in favour of liberal migration policies, and often sounds the alarm against what he sees as Europe’s rightward drift
The issues: Essentially, Austria’s political direction. The president’s role islargely ceremonial, but a win for Hofer would signal a lurch to the right for the country and a symbolic blow to the European project. A victory for Van der Bellen would hearten pro-EU and anti-nationalist leaders.The issues: Essentially, Austria’s political direction. The president’s role islargely ceremonial, but a win for Hofer would signal a lurch to the right for the country and a symbolic blow to the European project. A victory for Van der Bellen would hearten pro-EU and anti-nationalist leaders.
Why now? The race was supposed to be won in May, when Van der Bellen defeated Hofer by less than a point, but the Freedom Party contested the result and on July 1 Austria’s constitutional Court ruled the elections had to be re-run. An earlier date in October was pushed back to today after problems with the envelopes on some postal ballots, which wouldn’t seal.Why now? The race was supposed to be won in May, when Van der Bellen defeated Hofer by less than a point, but the Freedom Party contested the result and on July 1 Austria’s constitutional Court ruled the elections had to be re-run. An earlier date in October was pushed back to today after problems with the envelopes on some postal ballots, which wouldn’t seal.
Who can vote and when will we know the results? About 6.4 million voters over 16 can vote. Early results issued by the interior ministry should be available about an hour after polls close, with as-good-as-final results out by late evening – although if the race is very close, postal ballots will count and a final result might not be known bfore Monday or even Tuesday.Who can vote and when will we know the results? About 6.4 million voters over 16 can vote. Early results issued by the interior ministry should be available about an hour after polls close, with as-good-as-final results out by late evening – although if the race is very close, postal ballots will count and a final result might not be known bfore Monday or even Tuesday.
3.45pm GMT3.45pm GMT
15:4515:45
Good afternoon and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of what could prove a pivotal day in European politics.Good afternoon and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of what could prove a pivotal day in European politics.
Polls are about to close in Austria, where voters are choosing a new president who, surveys predict, could be the first freely-elected far-right leader of a western European country since the second world war.Polls are about to close in Austria, where voters are choosing a new president who, surveys predict, could be the first freely-elected far-right leader of a western European country since the second world war.
In Italy, meanwhile, the prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has staked his political future on a constitutional reform referendum that he looks set to lose, potentially opening a path to power for the anti-establishment, anti-euro Five Star Movement.In Italy, meanwhile, the prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has staked his political future on a constitutional reform referendum that he looks set to lose, potentially opening a path to power for the anti-establishment, anti-euro Five Star Movement.
Norbert Hofer, whose far-right, anti-immigrant Freedom party was founded by a former SS officer, and Alexander Van der Bellen, the son of Estonian refugees who is backed by the Green party, are re-running their contest of last May.Norbert Hofer, whose far-right, anti-immigrant Freedom party was founded by a former SS officer, and Alexander Van der Bellen, the son of Estonian refugees who is backed by the Green party, are re-running their contest of last May.
Austria’s constitutional court overturned the result of that, which Van der Bellen won by the narrowest of margins, due to irregularities in the processing of the postal vote. Recent polls suggest this time Hofer may have the edge.Austria’s constitutional court overturned the result of that, which Van der Bellen won by the narrowest of margins, due to irregularities in the processing of the postal vote. Recent polls suggest this time Hofer may have the edge.
In Italy, voters are giving their verdict on a raft of changes to the political system that will – Renzi argues – streamline the decision-making process by reducing the power of the senate. It’s all quite complicated, but what matters is that the prime minister has said he will resign if he loses.In Italy, voters are giving their verdict on a raft of changes to the political system that will – Renzi argues – streamline the decision-making process by reducing the power of the senate. It’s all quite complicated, but what matters is that the prime minister has said he will resign if he loses.
That raises the prospect – though by no means the certainty – of political and economic instability and early elections that Beppe Grillo’s unpredictable, populist M5S could win, a prospect that alarms many in Italy and beyond even if the chances of it actually forming a government are not great.That raises the prospect – though by no means the certainty – of political and economic instability and early elections that Beppe Grillo’s unpredictable, populist M5S could win, a prospect that alarms many in Italy and beyond even if the chances of it actually forming a government are not great.
But while the actual consequences are far from clear, after the UK’s shock Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s upset win in the US presidential election, victory for Hofer and defeat for Renzi would at the very least mark two more big steps forward for the anti-establishment, nation-first parties challenging the political mainstream across Europe.But while the actual consequences are far from clear, after the UK’s shock Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s upset win in the US presidential election, victory for Hofer and defeat for Renzi would at the very least mark two more big steps forward for the anti-establishment, nation-first parties challenging the political mainstream across Europe.
And with pivotal elections – and populist, Eurosceptic advances, perhaps triumphs – coming up next year in several EU member states including the Netherlands, France and Germany, there is a real chance that historians will look back on tonight’s events as the beginning of the end of the European project in its current form.And with pivotal elections – and populist, Eurosceptic advances, perhaps triumphs – coming up next year in several EU member states including the Netherlands, France and Germany, there is a real chance that historians will look back on tonight’s events as the beginning of the end of the European project in its current form.
The Guardian’s Berlin bureau chief, Philip Oltermann, and Italy correspondent, Stephanie Kirschgaessner, are in Vienna and Rome and will be contributing their insights throughout what could well be a long evening. The Guardian’s Berlin bureau chief, Philip Oltermann, and Italy correspondent, Stephanie Kirchgaessner, are in Vienna and Rome and will be contributing their insights throughout what could well be a long evening.
Feel free to email or tweet me with comments and suggestions: jon.henley@theguardian.com or @jonhenleyFeel free to email or tweet me with comments and suggestions: jon.henley@theguardian.com or @jonhenley
Updated
at 4.11pm GMT